Nothing1016
Member
Is Michigan a winner take all or nah?
Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)
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It's all in the expectations game, which was kinda unfair to her this time since the polling put her up huge, but she has no control over that. If it had Bernie up big and she pulled even, what do you think the media would be saying? It's ridiculous how the media performs all this meta-analysis and then kinda ignores the delegate math. It's frustrating horse race bullshit that has kept Rubio alive so long when he hasn't done shit.
Proportional. There are no WTA states for Dems.
NO.
That's the most hilarious part of all of this.
I completely agree. The polls being so far off really made the messaging worse.
balladofwindfishes
Member
No Democrat primary is
If you're talking about Dems, no states are winner takes all.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
It doesn't really matter either way, delegates are split even and the polls were spectacularly awful, no matter who noses out a popular vote victory.
Those under-motivated, low energy geezers didn't turn out and costed Clinton the win.
None of the democrats caucuses and primaries are winner take all.
SlimySnake
Flashless at the Golden Globes
Go Hildawg! Close the gap!
Battersea Power Station
Member
Even with a large chunk of Flint missing? I dunno... doesn't look good for Bernie at the moment. But I am trying to reverse-jinx it.
Head of Vengarl
Banned
I really like Bernie but the idea of him winning the primary and going up against Trump makes me extremely nervous. Trump will blast him for being a frail old man, and for being a socialist, and it will be really effective IMO. Especially the latter - the Cold War is over but I have a feeling the socialist label is still a political death sentence in a general election. I have way more confidence in Hillary holding her own against the likes of Trump.
Thagomizer
Member
Are you on mobile?
For some reason, GAF on mobile seems to have a lot of issues with images and some of them don't load and just display that Vbulliten logo.
It doesn't happen with me on other Vbulliten forums, so it's something to do with GAF.
maabus1999
Member
Yeah he wasn't. Just comes down to a short "End at Mar 15th" primary versus go to June like 2008 primary.
Establishment wanted the former.
Honestly for Hillary, she needs the latter. Bernie will make her stronger in the end. And honestly will probably truly make her go more left seeing what is resonating on both the GOP and Dem side.
Also a significant chunk of Wayne is still out.
boiled goose
good with gravy
He beat the polls in Michigan by like 30-20 points.
About 2/3 of delegates left.
Outside of Nevada and Narrow wins in MA and Iowa, Hillary hasn't won other states. Look at the map.
I mean, I have a spreadsheet with the delegates and it is very very unlikely, but the argument of momentum.
smokeymicpot
Beat EviLore at pool.
CNN needs DJ Khaled to announce a Major Key Race Alert.
Only to the MSM
You're completely correct. When considering VP noms, we're still thinking like it's last summer, but with Trump or Cruz as the likely nominee, she doesn't need to lock onto minority voters. The only politician of color I could see Hillary nominating is Cory Booker, and only then due to his age and outsider status rather than his race.
Bernie is a potential nominee but likely too old. However, Ted Devine suggested on CNN today that he's welcome to the idea, if he loses.
Warren is possible, but that risks alienating misogynists. I'd keep my eye on somebody like Mark Warner: a right-leaning Democrat from a swing state, who is probably white and male and somewhat younger than she.
Nothing1016
Member
Lol then why are we making a big deal out of this? A close race in any state is bad for bernie no matter what.
Epsilon-delta
Banned
Easy: the race is over, Bernie should drop out.
Yeah, which is why all the things the Bernie fans talk about don't even mean anything.
Let's assume that they're correct and Bernie does win CA and NY. He would have to win by 10+ for it to truly matter. The math just isn't there.
Do the democrats have any Winner Take Most states?
eBay Huckster
Member
I'm starting to think she's gonna nominate someone like Sherrod Brown.
Resident_UA
Member
The most trusted poll according to 538 had Hillary up by 37 points before this! Didn't realize this this swing was so huge.
SolarPowered
Member
It's all in the narrative. Bernie needs the win tonight even if he leaves with a gaping hole in his abdomen.
No.
It's all proportional.
Because of the media and campaign messaging will surely be " she should have won" "look at the polls" "the electorate is turning towards Sanders"
Because nobody thought he had a chance in this state, and momentum in other states with similar electorates/mindshare is a thing.
Symbolic victory is all it is - Hilldawg still wins the night in terms of pure delegate count.
eyeball_kid
Member
I mean, did you read that post and the post I was responding to? I totally stand by it. Decision Desk wasn't "grasping for attention" by calling the state for Hillary. They presumably genuinely thought she'd win it, kind of like every other analyst looking at the state did. This does make them look pretty bad.
Leona could've at least photoshopped a crystal ball into your avatar's hand
Gotta keep that horse race going to pay those bills.
But that sort of bullying and crass appeal only really appeals to a certain demographic. I can't see the middle and left being enamoured with it. I feel like Bernie has it in him to make socialism attractive again, which to be fair, he's sort of already doing.
Outdoor Miner
Member
This is crazy.
The narrative for Sanders fans in the next few weeks will become "You can't trust the polls" or "You never know what might happen". It's a ray of hope for a campaign that was all but defeated a week ago. Things are actually still quite grim for Sanders, but this is a reason for them to continue on and be energized.
Because news networks want people watching. They are less likely to watch a race that's proclaimed over.
Battersea Power Station
Member
Good point. I can't believe it's taken this long to point out.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Nope. Every one is proportional. It's why it'll be hard for Bernie to actually win. He can't just do better than Hillary has. He has to catch up to her, first. Each loss hurts him, but at this point, so does each tie, and even tiny victories can hurt, if they're not big enough.
It's all optics though. Media will say she lost and anyone who doesn't know how delegate counts work will be screaming this to high heaven.
It does make Illinois interesting now though.
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