sonycowboy
Member
Boy, http://biz.gamedaily.com is really cranking out some nice articles. Up until a couple of week ago, all they did was post PR releases, some general numbers, and the like. Now they seem to actually have someone dedicated to actually producing content. Me likey
The Cell Effect
PS3 Hardware Ready?
As development on the CELL microprocessor nears completion, we look at the possible implications it could have on launch dates, developers, and the Xbox.
Toshiba president Tadashi Okamura recently confirmed that work on the next-generation microprocessor CELLa collaboration between Sony, Toshiba and IBMis very close to completion.
The nucleus of electronics
"[CELL] will be used in IBM's computer, Sony's game machine, and Toshiba's digital consumer electronics, among other things," said Okamura.
And while Sony has yet to make an official announcement regarding the PS3's (unofficial title) launch timeframe, the fact that the chip expected to power the next-generation console is all but finished is a good sign indeed. Sony has indicated that the first CELL-based workstations will become available at the end of this year, and the full-scale production of CELL processors for use in consumer electronics is expected to start in early 2005.
But will this announcement have any implications for Sony's launch plans or its competitors? And will the CELL technology "change the world," as Okamura claims?
Not concerned with the competition
Stewart Halpern, Managing Director at Digital Entertainment Equity Research, doesn't see this announcement as really having an impact on the PS3's debut. "Sony has indicated that they intend to show the machine at E3 in May '05 and in my mind that is consistent with a fall '06 launch." Some people in the industry, however, believe that the PS3 will be unveiled before E3, perhaps some time during the first quarter of Sony's fiscal year. If that's the case, could the PS3's launch date be moving up to meet the widely expected fall '05 launch of the next Xbox?
"Everything else Sony has said about their view of the lifecycle of game hardware being a 10-year lifecycle suggests that an '06 launch is the most likely time to look for the PS3." Rather than worry about Microsoft getting a head start, Sony "will go when they're ready and when they think it's right."
Pie in the sky
Chris Slate, Editor-in-chief of PSM, also thinks a fall '06 PS3 launch is likely, but he's a little bit concerned over Sony's "track record of promising a lot" and then "over hyping themselves." Thinking back to the pre-launch hype for the PS2, Slate reminded us of how it was "supposed to have Toy Story-quality in-game graphics...and then it comes out and it's just a prettier version of the PSone."
"Sony has moved mountains and done huge things in the gaming industry, but no matter how big the mountain is they move, they always want to make you believe it's going to be ten times bigger. When the CELL comes out, will it just make prettier graphics...or will they actually realize some grander vision?"
Developer's dream, or nightmare?
A key element of realizing that grander vision would be to make the jobs of PS3 developers easier by creating a platform that they can quickly get a grasp on and do some great things with. But will CELL enable this or hinder it? Obviously, no one knows for sureexcept Sonywhat the PS3 will be like, but Slate offered the following:
"The big concern is that here's yet another custom Sony job that people are going to have to learn from the ground up. Development costs are already at an all-time high. Small developers can't exist anymore; they've all been swallowed up by the big conglomerates and it takes a company like an Electronic Arts almost just to be able to be profitable in this business already. If the CELL chip really is this new kind of wonky, weird thing, it's just going to be even harder for people to make games...I really hope that Sony is focusing on lots of good APIs and lots of good tools for developers that are going to cut down on some cost and some time issues."
Content is key
And what about Sony's closest competitor, Microsoft?
Interestingly, Halpern doesn't agree with most of the industry when it comes to the Xbox 2 launch date. "I am in probably a very small minority at this point that believes that Microsoft is not as likely to go next fall as everyone else seems to believe." Why is that? Considering that Halo is their biggest franchise and that Halo 2 is nearing its release, he believes that content (or lack thereof) could be a problem.
"It's not clear to me that they'll have any content advantage in trying to launch next fall. In order to have a successful launch, you need proprietary content...and it would seem unlikely that they could have a Halo 3 next year."
Halpern believes that Microsoft "lost the battle for this cycle" because they didn't have enough content, not because they entered the ring after Sony.
He added, "By going a year earlier than Sony it probably complicates the [Xbox 2] development process for the third-party publishers."
The Cell Effect
PS3 Hardware Ready?
As development on the CELL microprocessor nears completion, we look at the possible implications it could have on launch dates, developers, and the Xbox.
Toshiba president Tadashi Okamura recently confirmed that work on the next-generation microprocessor CELLa collaboration between Sony, Toshiba and IBMis very close to completion.
The nucleus of electronics
"[CELL] will be used in IBM's computer, Sony's game machine, and Toshiba's digital consumer electronics, among other things," said Okamura.
And while Sony has yet to make an official announcement regarding the PS3's (unofficial title) launch timeframe, the fact that the chip expected to power the next-generation console is all but finished is a good sign indeed. Sony has indicated that the first CELL-based workstations will become available at the end of this year, and the full-scale production of CELL processors for use in consumer electronics is expected to start in early 2005.
But will this announcement have any implications for Sony's launch plans or its competitors? And will the CELL technology "change the world," as Okamura claims?
Not concerned with the competition
Stewart Halpern, Managing Director at Digital Entertainment Equity Research, doesn't see this announcement as really having an impact on the PS3's debut. "Sony has indicated that they intend to show the machine at E3 in May '05 and in my mind that is consistent with a fall '06 launch." Some people in the industry, however, believe that the PS3 will be unveiled before E3, perhaps some time during the first quarter of Sony's fiscal year. If that's the case, could the PS3's launch date be moving up to meet the widely expected fall '05 launch of the next Xbox?
"Everything else Sony has said about their view of the lifecycle of game hardware being a 10-year lifecycle suggests that an '06 launch is the most likely time to look for the PS3." Rather than worry about Microsoft getting a head start, Sony "will go when they're ready and when they think it's right."
Pie in the sky
Chris Slate, Editor-in-chief of PSM, also thinks a fall '06 PS3 launch is likely, but he's a little bit concerned over Sony's "track record of promising a lot" and then "over hyping themselves." Thinking back to the pre-launch hype for the PS2, Slate reminded us of how it was "supposed to have Toy Story-quality in-game graphics...and then it comes out and it's just a prettier version of the PSone."
"Sony has moved mountains and done huge things in the gaming industry, but no matter how big the mountain is they move, they always want to make you believe it's going to be ten times bigger. When the CELL comes out, will it just make prettier graphics...or will they actually realize some grander vision?"
Developer's dream, or nightmare?
A key element of realizing that grander vision would be to make the jobs of PS3 developers easier by creating a platform that they can quickly get a grasp on and do some great things with. But will CELL enable this or hinder it? Obviously, no one knows for sureexcept Sonywhat the PS3 will be like, but Slate offered the following:
"The big concern is that here's yet another custom Sony job that people are going to have to learn from the ground up. Development costs are already at an all-time high. Small developers can't exist anymore; they've all been swallowed up by the big conglomerates and it takes a company like an Electronic Arts almost just to be able to be profitable in this business already. If the CELL chip really is this new kind of wonky, weird thing, it's just going to be even harder for people to make games...I really hope that Sony is focusing on lots of good APIs and lots of good tools for developers that are going to cut down on some cost and some time issues."
Content is key
And what about Sony's closest competitor, Microsoft?
Interestingly, Halpern doesn't agree with most of the industry when it comes to the Xbox 2 launch date. "I am in probably a very small minority at this point that believes that Microsoft is not as likely to go next fall as everyone else seems to believe." Why is that? Considering that Halo is their biggest franchise and that Halo 2 is nearing its release, he believes that content (or lack thereof) could be a problem.
"It's not clear to me that they'll have any content advantage in trying to launch next fall. In order to have a successful launch, you need proprietary content...and it would seem unlikely that they could have a Halo 3 next year."
Halpern believes that Microsoft "lost the battle for this cycle" because they didn't have enough content, not because they entered the ring after Sony.
He added, "By going a year earlier than Sony it probably complicates the [Xbox 2] development process for the third-party publishers."
