SporeCrawler
Member
yeah well thats why it was a download only thing.
i kinda want that thing but only limited n64 games run on it.
iQue seems to be the publisher of the DS line as well
The Death Of Nintendo Has Been Greatly Under-Exaggerated
- Thread starter Tripon
- Start date
yeah well thats why it was a download only thing.
i kinda want that thing but only limited n64 games run on it.
iQue seems to be the publisher of the DS line as well
michaelius
Banned
More like sarcasm failure
Sony seems to be quite happy after selling >500k ps2 and >500k ps3.
peanutbutterlatte
Member
People who ask rhetorical questions...?
Warm Machine
Member
Yes. That isn't the point. The point is that when you have 98% and slide to 10% over a 15 year period the future doesn't look bright for relevancy, therefor doomed.
Besides, profit is subjective in the overall makeup of the industry. Nintendo could post record profits which is great for them, but it is useless if their profits are the result of targeting a 7-12 year old demographic while everyone else is targeting 15-25 on another platform and making money doing just that. In turn then expecting everyone else to shift focus and rebuild for a different demographic is unreasonable. That is more or less where we are right now.
SporeCrawler
Member
at the moment the nintendoomed faction has a track record of being wrong for the last what... 20 years or so?
money is useless if you get it from 7-12 year olds? what kind of new economics is this?
IncandescentPrecept
Banned
Nintendo won't die anytime soon but their relevance among the core gaming audience probably will.
CadetMahoney
Member
Warm Machine
Member
You totally misread that.
Schnozberry
Member
That article is an epic troll, but it's not like Nintendo doesn't have flaws in their strategy. They didn't have the games ready for 3DS and Wii U. As a result, they really couldn't market the either effectively, because it's hard to market nothing. Now the 3DS seems to be picking up steam, so now they need to focus on getting software out for Wii U and actually put together cogent marketing campaign so they can salvage a profit out of the Wii U in the long run. It's never going to be the dominant follow up to the Wii that they hoped it would be, but I don't think it's impossible for them to actually turn a profit on it. They didn't build a kit that is losing hundreds of dollars per unit like Microsoft and Sony did when the last gen started.
They are in a bad spot, but they are far from apocalyptic at this point. It took a solid decade of bad decisions to sink Sega as a hardware company, and they had way less money to start with.
They are in a bad spot, but they are far from apocalyptic at this point. It took a solid decade of bad decisions to sink Sega as a hardware company, and they had way less money to start with.
Nokia also went from $16 billion cash reserves in 2010 to $3.5 billion cash reserves. People thinking that Nintendo can rest on their cash don't seem to realize that they've lost roughly 1/4 to 1/3 of their cash over the last 3 years:
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
I don't have a problem with the theory that Nintendo is doomed; I have a problem with an opinion piece presenting this theory that doesn't actually present any facts to point to it being doomed other than drawing a bunch of conclusions.
Their relevance amongst everyone is shrinking, even the previously reliable youth market.
Is there any proof he was fired? I thought the only confirmation we have is that he is retiring.
Well, previously he said he wanted to stay on until his kids went to college which would have been 2017 or 2018. He was pretty obviously pushed out. Now we'll see how long he actually stays on while looking for a successor. He said up to 12 months, but I would guess not long.
Nothing direct, but I think so. Didn't he even say he wanted to stay during Microsoft's transition in the letter?
Wikipedia says he wanted to stay until 2017 or 2018, but it says that statement was made a few years ago? Plans change. Reporting he was fired is inaccurate without proof.
adamsappel
Member
I certainly think Nintendo has made many mistakes lately, or at least I don't understand some of their decisions. They have so many IPs that warrant sequels. Where is Mario Golf/Tennis/Soccer/Baseball for WiiU? Are they not working on them? How about a Mario Football game? At least tease us with something! How could Miyamoto not make a Pikmin 3DS game? It's perfect for a handheld; I haven't played it yet (birthday present), but wouldn't it be 1:1 with what is done on the gamepad? Why are they training all the older developers on HD, instead of hiring younger graduates? Perhaps it's a Japanese cultural thing. Buy studios! Hire studios!
I don't understand people who want a Wii U at some point, but want to wait until there's more games available. Doesn't that just lead to not being able to play/pay for them all? I think it's far better to suffer the droughts and get to play all the early good games the systems have. I'm already feeling the financial crunch of next-gen and the last gasps of the current. If someone doesn't like the games on that list, I'm not sure that Nintnendo is a game company they actually like. What are they waiting for?
Nintendo's stock is doing well, isn't it? I've yet to see any grumbling about Nintendo from shareholders. If there is, I'd like to read about it.
All these naysayers seem to expect them to.
There you go.
Nintendo may not have gotten all those casual Wii owners to buy the WiiU, but it's not like Sony or Microsoft picked them up instead. Nintendo continually gets blamed for not retaining customers (like my father who inexplicably bought a Wii) who aren't actually gamers. I think the market is just contracting to its natural base (and even lower). I'll be interested to see how Wii U fares this holiday, particularly if there are PS4 and XB1 shortages. Will parents buy the Wii U instead or give a raincheck? And the 2DS is going to be a powerhouse. I'm buying one for myself.
Okay, how much do you think it would cost to make? What would/should they charge for that? I can't believe the insane prices Nintendo charges for VC games, particularly after once offering them for 30 cents. They are extremely overpriced, particularly if you want them for a marketplace where games are 99 cents. It's an idiotic dream to think Nintendo should be a 3rd-party publisher, particularly in the smartphone market.
I don't understand people who want a Wii U at some point, but want to wait until there's more games available. Doesn't that just lead to not being able to play/pay for them all? I think it's far better to suffer the droughts and get to play all the early good games the systems have. I'm already feeling the financial crunch of next-gen and the last gasps of the current. If someone doesn't like the games on that list, I'm not sure that Nintnendo is a game company they actually like. What are they waiting for?
Nintendo's stock is doing well, isn't it? I've yet to see any grumbling about Nintendo from shareholders. If there is, I'd like to read about it.
All these naysayers seem to expect them to.
There you go.
Nintendo may not have gotten all those casual Wii owners to buy the WiiU, but it's not like Sony or Microsoft picked them up instead. Nintendo continually gets blamed for not retaining customers (like my father who inexplicably bought a Wii) who aren't actually gamers. I think the market is just contracting to its natural base (and even lower). I'll be interested to see how Wii U fares this holiday, particularly if there are PS4 and XB1 shortages. Will parents buy the Wii U instead or give a raincheck? And the 2DS is going to be a powerhouse. I'm buying one for myself.
Okay, how much do you think it would cost to make? What would/should they charge for that? I can't believe the insane prices Nintendo charges for VC games, particularly after once offering them for 30 cents. They are extremely overpriced, particularly if you want them for a marketplace where games are 99 cents. It's an idiotic dream to think Nintendo should be a 3rd-party publisher, particularly in the smartphone market.
I can also post charts that mislead and confuse past performance with present or future success.
10 years is a relative short time compareed to Nintendos 30. Nintendo also has the handheld market more or less for itself without sony being able to do anything about it and has shown that it can make profit from even bad selling consoles.
A video game company losing a lot of money between the transition to a new gen of consoles and handhelds is nothing new.
Ok but I think you might be the only person on the planet who thinks his departure was voluntary.
Think that about covers it.
Hahaha, always great to see my post in image form. The image really does need to be updated though; a few more "Their stock dropped", the WiiU being a failure, something about the 2DS looking like a wedge of gouda... the usual.
There was also this one, from the same thread;
I forget which overpaid analyst / "Journalist" made the comment about "Funk" though. Hmm.
TheCongressman1
Member
Do you want me to put 30 years of Nokia then?
Yes, please.
KillerMan91
Member
With rising development costs that will change. Not to mention WiiU is doing even sub Gamecube numbers. It's hard for me to see how they could profit from WiiU.
And their ability to make profit from relative bad selling phones.
According to them they make a profit if a game is bought with the system.
minor effort
Banned
Apple releasing the iPad Mini is their admission that the iPad was a failure.
FunkyMunkey
Banned
The real reason I think Nintendo is in some trouble at least, is a combination of the WiiU and their philosophies behind it. Everytime one of the top-execs of Nintendo say anything, it's with this smugness and confidence where they act as if the company is immortal, when it is far from it. This "please understand" crap and Reggie talking down to the PS4 and Xboxone and brushing them off as a non-issue is hilarious to me.
If they were more human/realistic in how they were handling the WiiU, admitting to it's short-comings(other than blaming 3rd parties for bailing) and doing everything they could so appease their audience(hello online and persistent account system?), I wouldn't be worried at all. But with their hard-headedness and them planting their feet firmly in one spot as the gaming entertainment industry continues to adapt and evolve past them, they should be concerned.
I grew up on NIntendo, but I have a feeling the Wii will be my last home console from them until there are some business-sense changes in the company. The 3DS is pretty cool at least, but the OS/features/account system compared to the Vita are still becoming more archaic as time passes.
If they were more human/realistic in how they were handling the WiiU, admitting to it's short-comings(other than blaming 3rd parties for bailing) and doing everything they could so appease their audience(hello online and persistent account system?), I wouldn't be worried at all. But with their hard-headedness and them planting their feet firmly in one spot as the gaming entertainment industry continues to adapt and evolve past them, they should be concerned.
I grew up on NIntendo, but I have a feeling the Wii will be my last home console from them until there are some business-sense changes in the company. The 3DS is pretty cool at least, but the OS/features/account system compared to the Vita are still becoming more archaic as time passes.
To be fair, the Please Understand is essentially them apologising for it and them hoping you understand why something is delayed. It's no different to saying "Sorry". It's not Nintendo's fault it has turned into a meme
Considering that Nintendo never posted a loss even with 5 previous console transitions, but has in the last two years been posting losses, perhaps it's fair to say that the situation has changed?
The data is publicly available, and they were very profitable. You can put together a chart to disprove my assertion if you want.
The key point is that it is very easy to go from being very profitable to very unprofitable, lots of cash and high market capitalization to much less cash and very low market capitalization. Unless you want to tell everyone that Nokia, HTC, and Blackberry's present and future success is predictable from their past and not current trends, I don't see why Nintendo should be the exception, especially when these charts that keep getting posted disregard the last 2 years.
Seeds said:
It is new for Nintendo, which never posted losses during video game generation transitions in the past, but has posted losses for the past 2 years.
KillerTravis
Banned
I want to see who else besides Reggie does this? The company actually gives a pretty down to earth vibe. The please understand crap was said once and became a meme, I think it was when they said the Wii U would have constant software starting in June.
Yeah, the tech approach overtook and Nintendo started having to take severe losses with their console and handheld. That's what changed.
MS and Sony also had RIDICULOUS losses, far more than Nintendo's. It's not just Nintendo and shouldn't be considered as such.
Hey John, question;
You seem to be in the know about all of this, but the sentence I've bolded above kind of stood out. I read the rest of your post and I believe you about not getting a lot of sales with Wii U. But don't you think that (I'm not talking about you specificly) third parties kind of helped in creating this problem?
I can see other posters jumping on this train of thought from the get go, but hear me out; Nintendo needs to do more to help third parties on a lot details, but I do think that third parties are somewhat responisble themselves for creating such a weird market on Nintendo consoles. The Wii masked this because a lot of consumers did buy 3rd party software to a certain degree, but seeing the amount of bad games that hit Wii shelves I imagine consumers (because they are not stupid in the slightest) grew more hesitant towards non-Nintendo software. And honestly, they weren't wrong. They do see that third parties throw more muscle behind PS and Xbox releases.
Even the more knowledgeable group seem to have taken this stance; how many times have you seen people responding more positive towards third party titles on Wii U? "Yeah, why would I buy a third party game on a Nintendo system? I buy the thing for first party offerings and exclusives" There are exceptions like Ubisoft, but overall there always seems to be something wrong with multiplatform releases on the system. Late ports, weird pricepoints, missing content, technical issues, lack of DLC etc. etc. We see these problems popping up quite frequently.
Honestly, I think it's quite understandable that third parties aren't gaining any sales. (I think it sucks, but I can see why) Nintendo is to blame for a lot of things with the Wii U, oh sure, but I don't think you can blame consumers for some faults clearly made by third parties as well. They essentially trained them to buy Nintendo software over their own during the Wii-era and now its coming back to bite Nintendo and third parties in the tuchas with Wii U.
I mean I couldn't find the info with quick googling. I assumed you had it ready or something with a statement like that. Nokia as a company is a whole different beast. Sure, any company can go from profitable to unprofitable and vice versa. Saying that Nintendo will or even could nosedive like Nokia did is not a very good analysis of the situation.
Given their muted marketing campaign and the COMPLETE drop-off of marketing after luanch, I think Nintendo knew exactly what was going to happen.
Were they hoping for the best? Sure. But I doubt they were surprised when the WiiU didn't turn into another Wii phenomenon.
I just summarized my key points. I did not say it will do a Nokia, but I am saying that those charts of Nintendo's past profits and claims of unassailable cash reserves are not a good way of analyzing Nintendo's future. Any analysis should weigh more heavily on the recent trends in income, marketshare and cash reserves (which all happen to be dropping) not the past. I could've added Apple to that chart as well to better prove that point.
H_Prestige
Banned
How much profit did the n64 and GC make?
I completely agree with you there.
I'm not denying that they were very profitable, so there's nothing to disprove there.
Nintendo isn't an exception. You just can't compare the mobile phone market to the gaming market, especially in regards to Nintendo. What Nokia offered could be improved on, it was left behind tech wise and lost its marketshare because of it. What Nintendo has, which no other company can improve on, is its first party games.
What isn't new is that the amount of money the make between transitions is always less than normal. In WiiUs case, the R&D cost could just have been a lot more than usual.
Oh, it's nice to meet you mr. World, I've heard things about you.
Nokia also went from $16 billion cash reserves in 2010 to $3.5 billion cash reserves. People thinking that Nintendo can rest on their cash don't seem to realize that they've lost roughly 1/4 to 1/3 of their cash over the last 3 years:
This is a pretty compelling chart that I haven't seen before. It would be interesting to see longer term and adjusted for inflation if that's possible (so we can see what is typical around other generations), but the point is still clear.
D
Deleted member 752119
Unconfirmed Member
But does that justify putting out their own console vs. going multiplatform and having a larger potential market to sell those games to?
If they can find ways to sell enough consoles to make a profit on hardware, then it's a no brainer to keep doing that.
If they can't, then it may eventually be time to just go third party and sell their games to as broad a market as possible.
Only time will tell.
Interceptor
Banned
Are they dead yet?
pretty soon
I suspect Nintendo would rather go 100% handheld if their console stuff didn't work out. They would face very little to no competition, wouldn't have to pay a fee as they would by becoming a third party developer and have control of their hardware.
ab.aeterno
Member
Pikmin 3 had a short-lived and small effect on hardware sales in Japan, and Wonderful 101 has itself bombed, let alone having any relevant impact on hardware sales.
Why would I buy a WiiU for third party games when all my friends will be playing it on current gen consoles or the new ones coming out? That's the question consumers will ask themselves, so using them as system sellers seems absurd. To date, core western AAA games have done terribly on the WiiU.
As for your predictions, good grief. Preorders for the PS4 are already over one million units with two months to go; even if they stopped now, you expect them to only sell another million by the end of the year? Even the WiiU sold 3 million units or more for its launch.
Seriously, please explain in detail how any of the math for this would work. These numbers are so nonsensical that they're bordering on farce.
There's optimism, and then there's wildly unrealistic. I think someone said that it would need to sell, starting next week, an average of 80,000 units in each territory per week to do that. In Japan alone, this means an increase of over 1000%, from their current average of less than 7,000 a week. And each week it does not meet that average increases the average other weeks must meet to offset the difference.
Basic math and past performance history say it's going to be impossible. Not unlikely, but categorically impossible. It's not just an increase they need but a consistent and sustained 10 times increase per week, every week, until the end of the fiscal year.
Very good post. This is the reason Nintendo can't get third party support, explained succinctly.
The question is, what software were they buying? Just because it had high software sales doesn't necessarily mean anything, especially to third party publishers; what sold well is equally important. How many AAA games targeted to the 18-35 hardcore demographic did well? Broke a million units?
Most of the million+ selling games I can find for the Wii from third parties are music, dance, fitness, or casual game collections.
For better or worse, third parties want to make games for a demographic that historically Nintendo fails to capture with their home consoles, and game sales seem to reflect that. So yes, a lot of games may have sold on the system. But if it's not the kind of games third parties want to make, why would that matter?
See above for this problem in action on the WiiU.
Interceptor
Banned
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Eh Nintendo has posted losses before, what was significant was a full fiscal year loss. Which only happened once so far.