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The Force Awakens Box Office Prediction
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Cameron's numbers are king. I wouldn't bet on $3-4B overseas predictions, but I think franchises like Star Wars have only grown in worldwide appeal with the advent of the iphone, and its audience overlaps with Jurassic World/Avengers. Overseas it was no.1-4, it will be interesting to see how emerging markets and the smart phone generation affect Star Wars and Harrison Ford in December:
SE Trilogy: no.4 1997, beating James Bond and Mr Bean (huge international hit)
Phantom : no.1, no other film came within $100m, doubled Bond
Clones: no. 4 with digital projection bias
Sith: no. 2 to Harry Potter
Crystal Skull: no.2, practically tied with TDK for no.1 though
^all overseas rankings
James Cameron went from being a SW fan to dominating it at the box office (not so much with merch though) :
ryutaro's mama
Member
Then those fans are setting themselves up.
"If SW doesn't beat the highest grossing film of all time, it's a disappointment."
GOAT or bum. No middle ground. SMH
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
People putting Avatar as the bar to clear are ridiculous. It won't get there and it's unfair to expect it to.
ryutaro's mama
Member
...
IdreamofHIME
Member
Its a billion WW before the end of the year for sure, then it just comes down to how good it is. If it is Original trilogy quality then repeated viewings will see it sprint past Avatar, but if its prequel territory then it will fizzle out and sit along side a Pirates/Harry Potter Box office yield in final takings.
Its going to break records for openings, nightlies, dailies, weekdays, foreign takings, Chinese BO and whole lot of others, but like I said it needs to be a fucking awesome movie to drive it on into the new year and become the monster its destined to be.
Its going to break records for openings, nightlies, dailies, weekdays, foreign takings, Chinese BO and whole lot of others, but like I said it needs to be a fucking awesome movie to drive it on into the new year and become the monster its destined to be.
So less than the prequels would be doing adjusted for inflation? Yeah, makes perfect sense. Except for the fact this post is pure nonsense.
So this will have WORSE legs than the prequels? In the winter? Are you being serious?
Anyway I have been fighting predicting over 700 mil domestic but fuck it...I am in:
DOM OW: $220M
WW OW: $500M
DOM Total: $735M
WW Total: $1.8B
I can see it going under $700M domestic (since that is already a crazy high number), but it's hard to deny that Star Wars is in as good a place as any to set the domestic record. No real competition for a month, crazy hype, and a $200M advertisment campaign that started months ahead of release.
Then May 2017 will roll around and everyone will post the "what went wrong?" topics when Ep 8 is $200M lower.
I suspect Lucasfilm/Disney is going to play up the 40th anniversary angle HARD for Episode 8 ala Skyfall and the 50th for Bond. If that wasn't the plan I doubt they would align everything so its release was timed with the big 4-0.
And nah, that will be happening with Rogue One.
I am more curious how the first non-Saga film does than Episode 8 to be honest. I mean what should we even be expecting here?
And nah, that will be happening with Rogue One.
I am more curious how the first non-Saga film does than Episode 8 to be honest. I mean what should we even be expecting here?There is a big difference in expecting a mild decline compared to the one earlier in the series versus falling short of an all-time record.
The bigger your film is the bigger the potential drop is in dollars. AoU didn't drop that much harder than Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets percentage wise. Avengers just made twice as much as the first Harry Potter. Empire Strikes Back and Attack of the Clones both had bigger percentage drops.
EDIT: Actually, I misremembered Chamber's DOM gross (thought it was closer to $250M). AoU's drop was close to 10% larger given the actual grosses. The point about part 2s in past Star Wars trilogies still stands though.
ZehDon
Gold Member
Agreed. Personally, I think meeting Episode III in terms of gross would be a terrific outcome. Episode III was billed as "the last Star Wars", and I personally saw it a couple of times because I wanted to enjoy Star Wars on the big screen before it went away forever.
Episode 3's gross wouldn't be all that big for a film released today. I'm positive that Disney would view that result as a failure in the modern box office climate. I mean, Inside Out passed Ep3's worldwide gross (and wasn't that far behind its domestic gross). Inside Out will probably end up being the 7th highest grossing film of the year worldwide. If Star Wars only managed #7 for the year, people would flip shit.
I suspect Lucasfilm/Disney is going to play up the 40th anniversary angle HARD for Episode 8 ala Skyfall and the 50th for Bond. If that wasn't the plan I doubt they would align everything so its release was timed with the big 4-0.
And nah, that will be happening with Rogue One.
Good point about the 40th anniversary.
For Rogue One all we can expect is more $ in China considering the cast and buildup.
Last week, my brother bet me $5 that TFA will at least break the top two all time worldwide.
A few days later, my friend bet me $10 that it will outgross Avatar worldwide.
The following day, my other friend bet me $20 that it will outgross Avatar worldwide.
I think they're all out of their minds and I can't wait to get paid. Only time will tell though.
A few days later, my friend bet me $10 that it will outgross Avatar worldwide.
The following day, my other friend bet me $20 that it will outgross Avatar worldwide.
I think they're all out of their minds and I can't wait to get paid. Only time will tell though.
Titanic includes its 3D gross. Don't tell him.
Jawmuncher
Member
I really want that "Star Wars fails to beat JW opening record" thread. Seems like it won't happen, but it would be very entertaining. Especially if it was very close.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Jawmuncher
Member
I doubt JW 2 will break opening records. Will probably float along like avengers 2.
Mr. Pointy
Member
OW US: $215m
OW worldwide: $520m
US final total:
Worldwide final total:
OW worldwide: $520m
US final total:
$670m
$1.9b
Shhhhhhhhhhh
I think it's possible, but it's hard to tell how much the difference in release timing will affect the numbers. Should be interesting either way.
Dreams-Visions
Member
Indeed. The bar is Age of Ultron :3
Worldwide or domestic? If Star Wars only ends up in the Age of Ultron range domestically, that would be extremely disappointing. The Phantom Menace wasn't too much lower than that 16 years ago.
Dreams-Visions
Member
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=963553
this is the only bar it has to clear for me. I'm not interested in the ever-shifting goal posts.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I gotta think Disney is setting their bar somewhere around 600 mil domestic, right? Like, they won't be ECSTATIC there. It'd still be #2 behind Jurassic World. But as a beginning of their run with the property, it'd have to be considered a pretty good one.
Anything between 550-600 and they're probably mildly disappointed but they can spin
Anything around 500-550 and they're probably disappointed flat out, and can't avoid addressing the noise surrounding the falling short of expectations (and holy shit, 500 mil domestic can be, and likely will be, considered a flat-out disappointment)
Anything between 550-600 and they're probably mildly disappointed but they can spin
Anything around 500-550 and they're probably disappointed flat out, and can't avoid addressing the noise surrounding the falling short of expectations (and holy shit, 500 mil domestic can be, and likely will be, considered a flat-out disappointment)
Lifejumper
Member
Damn lots of people chose mahvel.
Age of Ultron shifted the goal posts when it tripped all over itself at the starting line and had to be carried off the track. I think most people expected a drop from Avengers 1 for AoU (even a sizable one), but not a drop of $160M+
No it's not, not anymore. It was before Age. Of Ultron did a lot less than everyone including the industry was expecting. Age of Uktron isn't even a top 3 movie for the year let alone any kind of bar. Ultron didn't do well enough to be a bar for a film like this.
Notice how no one goes around trying to claim Marvel is bigger than Star Wars anymore for example.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
George Oscar Bluth II
Banned
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I know.
It burns.
It burns.
Broken clock and all of that.
crazy monkey
Banned
1.2 billion ww
Gambit was right. A big reason do Marvels dominance for a few years was the franchises with far bigger and broader base of interest such as Jurassic Park or Star Wars were not active again yet. Hell even Fast and Furious has bigger and broader popularity than the MCU at a worldwide level potentially.
CloudyTuba
Member
Theyre clearly spending sinful amounts of money on marketing for this movie so I do imagine their bar is pretty damn high when it comes to what number they're content with.
However I just dont see any situation where they don't make obscene amount of cash and laugh themselves to sleep in piles of money.
Lots of people don't know the power of the dark side!
yanipheonu
Member
...It could be crazy.
I'd put down a "more than 3 mil" bet. Not sure if it'll do that, but if any movie in recent histroy was going to...
I'd put down a "more than 3 mil" bet. Not sure if it'll do that, but if any movie in recent histroy was going to...
It still gets to be in the Top 3 domestically. It will have to settle for 4th worldwide unless Star Wars tanks overseas. It's also not impossible that AoU keeps a lead (for third place) internationally. $940M is a lot. Star Wars needs big gains to hit that (even if a lot of us are predicting that those gains will happen).
Dreams-Visions
Member
It's enough for me, damnit!
Historically, December films never make summer numbers during their opening weekends. I recall that the highest opening for a December film, ever, is The Hobbit at 85 million.
Guys, I know it's Star Wars, but I project 100-120 (obviously, still obliterating records!!) with a really good grip for a couple of months or so.
Do not misconstrue this as an indicator that I'm not excited or don't think the movie will do well fiscally. Oh no, this is just a case of box office trends! Obviously, there is a modestl chance that it could defy many years of precedent, but that would be an outlying possibility and not cast iron guarantee!
Guys, I know it's Star Wars, but I project 100-120 (obviously, still obliterating records!!) with a really good grip for a couple of months or so.
Do not misconstrue this as an indicator that I'm not excited or don't think the movie will do well fiscally. Oh no, this is just a case of box office trends! Obviously, there is a modestl chance that it could defy many years of precedent, but that would be an outlying possibility and not cast iron guarantee!
Bobby Roberts
Banned
It's possible it'll hit 100 million in pre-sales the week before it opens. It's pretty much foregone conclusion it's going to at least double the December opening weekend record at this point.
I think that Furious 7 will be that series' Skyfall personally. Conversely, I'd probably place a modest bet on an MCU movie breaking $1.5B again at some point in the next 4-5 years. Asia and Latin America continues to show increasing love for the franchise. Domestic won't see another $150M+ drop with the next entry.
Even if it doesn't hit $100M in presales, it's probably a lock to hit $75M, which is already a Top 5 December opening before the film even plays a single showing.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Japan was Star Wars' strongest territory with the last film grossing 9 billion yen (83 million at the time) - that would be 63 million today.
Mission Impossible also suffered because of this. Do we know when Star Wars is launching in China? If it's launching near Kung Fu Panda there, that might cut its legs short.
Mission Impossible also suffered because of this. Do we know when Star Wars is launching in China? If it's launching near Kung Fu Panda there, that might cut its legs short.
Jan 8th for now
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Do we have a decent idea as to what percentage pre-sales usually play in a film's opening weekend? Is there a semi-reliable range there from which we can kinda extrapolate how many times over the opening weekend might actually land?
I don't know how readily available pre-sale data is, though. usually it's only reported on when it's kinda remarkable, right?
I don't think I have seen much presale data. Hunger Games opened 6x higher than its presales, but that was years ago, and the public awareness for Star Wars is on a different level. All of the news reports on these presales is getting people to reserve their tickets way earlier than they typically would otherwise.
Given that Hunger Games formally held the presales record, I guess the first Avengers and Jurassic World did at least 8-9x their presales. I don't think they have really factored that heavily in most releases before this.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Thanks, it should give a good enough window.
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