There are six local films opening on Jan 15th in China. I don't know how big any of them are expected to be, or how many screens Star Wars will lose as a result though.
The Force Awakens Box Office Prediction
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There are six local films opening on Jan 15th in China. I don't know how big any of them are expected to be, or how many screens Star Wars will lose as a result though.
He also said Marvel didn't have mass appeal or something along that line. You win some and you lose some.
Count Dookkake
Member
lol at the Marvel kids.
I've already made my predictions here, but let me add that this movie will definetly crush those quoted numbers.
valkillmore
Member
$240 domestic, $680 millions worldwide
My crew gonna be $50 of that.
My crew gonna be $50 of that.
Kaneda Shotaro
Member
Around $210 million opening with $600 million worldwide. It's going to have amazing legs and not dip below $100 million the second weekend.
My heart says it's going for the record and then some. My brain says the endless media on ticket sales and sell outs (despite every theater showing it round the block meaning no time is anywhere close to being sold out) will scare away the walk up business.
I go with 190 mil domestic opening.
I go with 190 mil domestic opening.
Smart take, IMO.
Everyone I know who isn't with me for premiere night is on endlessly about how there's no way they'll find seats opening weekend. This (and December, obviously) is the one big, huge hurdle Disney has not really been able to counter: the perception of magnitude working against it.
That's a tricky one.
It will all depend on Thursday business I think. I don't see Friday proper through Sunday outgrossing what Avengers or Jurassic World pulled, but the Thursday previews could potentially be $50M on their own. Avengers and JW had around $19M in previews.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Could this be the first movie to make over $100 mil a weekend for three consecutive weekends?
Is such a thing even possible?
edit: I gotta imagine a large majority of the pre-sales are for Thursday night screenings.
Is such a thing even possible?
edit: I gotta imagine a large majority of the pre-sales are for Thursday night screenings.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Forbes initially reported it'd be less than 3900 theaters, but then had to retract and say it'd be closer to 4200
Lord knows how many screens that'll actually translate to, though. K-Swiss?
Lord knows how many screens that'll actually translate to, though. K-Swiss?
BronsonLee
Member
How many nerds are there in America?
And yeah the presales are obviously frontloaded for Thursday.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Nerds aren't doing business this big. Never have. Never will.
If it's 4200 Theatres, probably 13-15k screens. Some of it will depend on their contracts with other film, but I would imagine most 10+ screen multiplexes will at least be running Star Wars on 3 screens. More for the 15-20 screen venues.
As for three $100M weekends, I don't think it will. Partially because I don't see how that happens without the film clearing $1B+ domestic (which I don't think is very likely obviously)
BronsonLee
Member
(Bad joke about Nerds candy doing great business)
At this point I just want the movie out because I know damn well the aftermath just means death for millions
JigglesBunny
Banned
OW: $700,000,000
WW OW: $1.9 billion
WW OW: $1.9 billion
BronsonLee
Member
That is the easiest 5$ the other guy has ever made
prag16
Banned
I like where your head's at.
Is this film opening in every bathroom in the world?
Nah. It will get 3-4 weeks as #1. Probably 4.
Weekend 5 has Ride Along 2 and that Michael Bay Benghazi movie. One of those will be big enough. I'd be impressed if Star Wars was over $25M in its 5th weekend. Jurassic World was just over $18M by then.
Hero_of_the_Day
Member
My random guesses...
Domestic: $710,000,000
Foreign: $1,200,000
WW: $1,910,000,000
Going really optimistic, but shy of fully insane.
Domestic: $710,000,000
Foreign: $1,200,000
WW: $1,910,000,000
Going really optimistic, but shy of fully insane.
CrichtonKicks
Member
I can only imagine how some insanely high Thursday number will prompt Deadline to imply inflated weekend totals that are impossible to hit.
JigglesBunny
Banned
CassidyIzABeast
Member
550M Domestic
1.2B WW
Lowball legend baby
1.2B WW
Lowball legend baby
What'll bump it? The Revenant?
BronsonLee
Member
Deadline either does that or stubbornly gets dragged kicking and screaming into announcing that shit
Examples: Avengers, Jurassic World
Now even I know that's pushing it
See my edit, but week 5 is Michael Bay Benghazi film and Ride Along 2. Ride Along 2 is the better bet, but we've had several military films do much better than expected in the past few January periods. Ride Along 2 is the sequel to a $41M opener. If either film opens in the high 20s that should be enough.
Oh yeah, that benghazi movie is from Michael Bay. I forgot about that.
I had no idea Ride Along did so well. The first made $135M domestic...not bad
ryutaro's mama
Member
A week from today, this thread will be a fun read.
There will likely be a ton of quoting going on.
There will likely be a ton of quoting going on.
freenudemacusers
Member
Has anyone prepared some good gifs in anticipation?
TheKaeptain
Banned
lol Star Wars is beyond nerds.
BronsonLee
Member
A week from today, this thread will be a fun read.
There will likely be a ton of quoting going on.
Regardless of the box office take, Creed is a far superior movie to Star Wars: The Force Awakens
A bulletproof quote, no sane man can refute it
ryutaro's mama
Member
I have said it before, SW will be a good movie perceived as great because of the stench of the prequels.
It will also be incredibly safe, ticking all the nostalgia boxes for fans of the OT, all while throwing a wrinkle or two.
But it will not be CREED.
You can book that ish.
HarryDemeanor
Member
OW: $256
WW: $5,000
WW: $5,000
GraceflAnger
Member
As long as it beats out all of those mediocre movies records I'll be happy.
Discotheque
Banned
Mad max and creed set the bar stupid high this year
This is exactly my prediction as well. Literally what I came to post.
#2 US
#3 WW
I will add that I think WW OW will be around $620M
BronsonLee
Member
WB: Well, fuck it, let's just make awesome movies, fuck Star Wars*
*I added that last part
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