I think GA is kind of a different beast, in that ND publicly mocked the idea of them making a handheld game, and people have very different expectations from a handheld spin off, it's very different than someone like Ninja Theory making Uncharted 5: The Ashes of Atlantis or whatever, if it features Drake or not.Well, the one most likely to be most affected by it, Amy Hennig has left ND. And even then, that never stopped Bend from making Golden Abyss.
And frankly, it doesn't have to be Nathan Drake. Conceptually, the IP is large enough that it can go Francis Drake, Sully... or even "Young Nathan Drake Chronicles."
Also, by the logic of Sony wouldn't let a hit IP sit, surely that would mean someone else is making TLoU2. Druckley are making UC4, there's a group working on a new IP, there's no reason to think TLoU2 is in-development at ND at all. Assuming UC4 is the end of next year, that will have been two and a half years with no development of a sequel to a hit game at all. If Sony wouldn't allow it, someone else must be making TLoU2 right now, but there's no way that's the case.