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The Resistance: Avalon [mafia?] |OT| I Put on my Robe and Wizard Hat
- Thread starter Droplet
- Start date
Well I've marked 4 people as loyal so I guess that would be my current best pick:
UltraJay
TheExodu5
ultron87
Palmer_v1
Not that I expect that team to get nominated. We still don't have enough input from quite a few players.
Rynam has posted once and hasn't said anything.
It's hard to tell if people are not posting to stay under the radar, or because they're not comfortable with the game yet.
UltraJay
TheExodu5
ultron87
Palmer_v1
Not that I expect that team to get nominated. We still don't have enough input from quite a few players.
Rynam has posted once and hasn't said anything.
It's hard to tell if people are not posting to stay under the radar, or because they're not comfortable with the game yet.
Personally I've been thinking of this proposal.
Kalor
Palmer_v1
Lords of Castamere
Lone_Prodigy
As this has two new people and two returning players though I could change LoC and L_P out for other people. I understand the reasoning for reducing the number of variables but we're still early on and we should try to test out as many people as we can.
Kalor
Palmer_v1
Lords of Castamere
Lone_Prodigy
As this has two new people and two returning players though I could change LoC and L_P out for other people. I understand the reasoning for reducing the number of variables but we're still early on and we should try to test out as many people as we can.
I will reject that mission team, personally.
It was just my initial idea since I am the one proposing right now. I presume the team you want is the last three people and Exodu?
That's my inclination, yes. For now, I mostly just want to see more activity, etc though.
The Second one mostly. I never played this game and I'm certainly not the best in writing my toughts about reads etc.
On the Subject on a second team, I too think it's best to send the same team+1 on the Mission. Maybe we were really lucky and Exodu5 picked 3 good players at Random.
I see nothing right now that Speaks against L_P, Czar, Pamler and Exodu5.
btw. Happy new Year from Europe o/
I thought that, for the most part, the proposer would include himself in their proposals? Though it could be a problem if we end up with a lot of scum proposers.
Rynam definitely seems to be lurking. As soon as I and Exodus mentioned him, he piped up.
I don't think I agree with Exodus's theory of two scum on the team. If they were lucky enough for this then they'd probably take the bullet and try to get one of them "confirmed" as town with a possibility of the other being outed as scum by failing the quest with one fail.
I also don't agree with Kalor's unofficial proposal either. I can kind of see why Palmer would be kept on the team but I don't understand why Czartim is being replaced by LoC? I'll have to look at both their posts to see how Czartim seemed scummy (mostly fluff posts?) whereas LoC looks alright. Just seems arbitrary to me.
It makes more sense to go with the original team plus Kalor and then revise the proposal from there. If I was going to replace anyone from Quest 1 it would be Lone because he went with Exodus's proposal full stop. Then again it might be worthwhile to keep him on the team to test him or use Exodus as the replacement to test them.
Rynam definitely seems to be lurking. As soon as I and Exodus mentioned him, he piped up.
I don't think I agree with Exodus's theory of two scum on the team. If they were lucky enough for this then they'd probably take the bullet and try to get one of them "confirmed" as town with a possibility of the other being outed as scum by failing the quest with one fail.
I also don't agree with Kalor's unofficial proposal either. I can kind of see why Palmer would be kept on the team but I don't understand why Czartim is being replaced by LoC? I'll have to look at both their posts to see how Czartim seemed scummy (mostly fluff posts?) whereas LoC looks alright. Just seems arbitrary to me.
It makes more sense to go with the original team plus Kalor and then revise the proposal from there. If I was going to replace anyone from Quest 1 it would be Lone because he went with Exodus's proposal full stop. Then again it might be worthwhile to keep him on the team to test him or use Exodus as the replacement to test them.
Original team + kalor sounds good.
The problem with scum getting to talk before hand is they probably have talked about who should fail in the event two of them are on the same team.
If two were on the first mission, however, it makes more sense to just pass it than put half their team on the "might be scum" list for the rest of the game. This is the one that might fail, but it's still worth it to try in the event that we got lucky and put together a full team.
The problem with scum getting to talk before hand is they probably have talked about who should fail in the event two of them are on the same team.
If two were on the first mission, however, it makes more sense to just pass it than put half their team on the "might be scum" list for the rest of the game. This is the one that might fail, but it's still worth it to try in the event that we got lucky and put together a full team.
Czartim has posted a lot of fluff but will occasionally post good advice but nothing too towny or anything scum wouldn't post.
LoC has barely posted and what they have is really just echoing what others have said. They have yet to post in this phase at all. Looks like lurking similar to Rynam.
Still feels like a weird substitution. I would have rejected that team but would approve original team + 1 like others have suggested. I would have also rejected Exodus's selection even though I am in it. We need to see the results of Quest 2 based on the original team at this point before we make any drastic changes. The only substitution I'm willing to make is probably putting Exodus in.
LoC has barely posted and what they have is really just echoing what others have said. They have yet to post in this phase at all. Looks like lurking similar to Rynam.
Still feels like a weird substitution. I would have rejected that team but would approve original team + 1 like others have suggested. I would have also rejected Exodus's selection even though I am in it. We need to see the results of Quest 2 based on the original team at this point before we make any drastic changes. The only substitution I'm willing to make is probably putting Exodus in.
Lone_Prodigy
Member
I asked for alternative proposals and no one suggested anything. Don't pin it on me.
I mean you could have just picked random people? It was your proposal at the end of the day, and distancing yourself from it now is kind of weird.
Lord of Castamere
Member
3+1 only works if we believe no scum was on the team, which a pass doesn't necessarily indicate. That could loop us in a trap that paints the new player as scum. As its possible that a scum was inserted to deliberately pass, resulting in a scum member looking more town in future situations.
The counter to this is either to A reboot the team if it passes, which is just as likey to instert more scum, or in the result of a 2nd quest fail scrap the whole team then. In this respect, I'm not sure I can agree to an Exdou hammer as the first quest passing has no bearing on his alignment.
The counter to this is either to A reboot the team if it passes, which is just as likey to instert more scum, or in the result of a 2nd quest fail scrap the whole team then. In this respect, I'm not sure I can agree to an Exdou hammer as the first quest passing has no bearing on his alignment.
I thought about having two new and two returning players but it was sort of random who I chose. It was more an initial template than anything else.
Since people seem to be with ok with 3 + me I'll just propose it now so that I have something in place. We can always revise it before we get to the voting.
PROPOSAL: Palmer_v1, Lone_Prodigy, CzarTim, Kalor
I don't think anyone would assume that is the only possible scenario and it seems like a bad reason not to take the chance?
Here are our scenerios:
Pass - We run the same team again Q3.
Fail - One or more scum is on the team. Either scum passed quest one for obvious reasons, or the new player is scum. Next quest we change things up.
Why would taking a completely new team increase our chances of winning over trying this one again? If there's a good reason, I'll gladly be on board. But it seems like we'd just find out if at least one scum is among another random four people while still not being sure about everyone on Team OG.
Lord of Castamere
Member
I'm fine with using this team again, just not with Exdou or Lone Prodigy being on the team. I was just saying that is a possible option. I agree that it's not best. If we fail the next quest a reboot seems the better option in case a scum was in the first team. If this quest fails, I guess the best option would be to remove the 4, and also not include Exdou/Lone prodigy. Which greatly limits our options. We'd need to figure out one person who is most likely town to add in the group. Palmer, Kalor, or you. A tricky situation.
Just remember every new member added to the team increases the chance for scum to show up. A complete wipe makes it a REALLY good chance for 1 to be scum. If we do that we are basically handing a fail to the scum team unless we are so lucky as to land on 4 townies. We can try to narrow it down to increase our chances but with our current information it is basically random.
Czartims plan is what I thought the plan was from Day 1. Testing the original group is our best bet.
Czartims plan is what I thought the plan was from Day 1. Testing the original group is our best bet.
Lord of Castamere
Member
Doesn't really matter. What choice do we have? What I said gives a few more options, but if tonights quest fails at maximum Czartim and Palmer stay, if only because they didn't place themselves. Lone prodigy, Kalor, and Exdou have too much risk factor to consider placing them in Q3, if tonight fails. So 3 members will be new regardless. The big differentual is if we take both Czar and Palmer or only one.
Lord of Castamere
Member
My opinion on Q3, and risk factor. As I said before I'm fine with including Kalor in Q 2, but this isn't dependent of him. He's interchangeable with any of us.
If Q2 fails who should be on Q3?
I've ranked these highest risk to lowest.
1: Kalor- its entirety probable that Kalor will be framed tonight as the sole scum in the quest, but there's no getting around that. With the quest failed Kalor is the tolken scum. Q3 cannot have Kalor inside of it.
2:Exodu/Lone prodigy- both are scummy for the same reason. Exodu proposed the quest and lone prodigy passed it without resistance. I don't think both are scum necessarily, but its possible either way. I don't like the idea of them sitting on Q3 personally. It could have been a fluke though. They accidentally hit scum. No way to know right now.
3:Czartim/Palmer - The odd men out. The best choices for Q3 if 2 fails if only for the fact that they didn't place themselves on the Quests. Even still, there's a chance either are scum.
In close, if Q2 fails I won't approve a list with Kalor or Lone Prodigy on it. Exodu depends on the rational.
If Q2 fails who should be on Q3?
I've ranked these highest risk to lowest.
1: Kalor- its entirety probable that Kalor will be framed tonight as the sole scum in the quest, but there's no getting around that. With the quest failed Kalor is the tolken scum. Q3 cannot have Kalor inside of it.
2:Exodu/Lone prodigy- both are scummy for the same reason. Exodu proposed the quest and lone prodigy passed it without resistance. I don't think both are scum necessarily, but its possible either way. I don't like the idea of them sitting on Q3 personally. It could have been a fluke though. They accidentally hit scum. No way to know right now.
3:Czartim/Palmer - The odd men out. The best choices for Q3 if 2 fails if only for the fact that they didn't place themselves on the Quests. Even still, there's a chance either are scum.
In close, if Q2 fails I won't approve a list with Kalor or Lone Prodigy on it. Exodu depends on the rational.
I'm not sure why I'm on the scummy list all of a sudden. I suggested a team for the reasons I've said. There's no reason to influence the first teams proposal if I'm scum...we've calculated the odds and the odds are highly in favour of picking scum on a team if picking a random team. I only suggested the team to include players that might not otherwise get to participate on a quest.
That's only if we think the first team had no scum. I think that's highly unlikely.
I've also said that if there was only 1 scum, I think they would have failed the mission. I think there might be 2 scum on board.
Lone_Prodigy
Member
I'm scummy because I went with a suggestion? How about giving me some credit for a successful quest that came from my proposal? Lose lose situation for me: if the quest failed it's my fault, but it succeeded and now I'm suspicious for agreeing about a team composition when we had nothing to go on.
Replace Exodus with any other player who suggested a team and I'd be in the scum camp with them. Hahaha.
Replace Exodus with any other player who suggested a team and I'd be in the scum camp with them. Hahaha.
Lord of Castamere
Member
Not relevant. Your said reasons matter little if they're lied.
No. If the proposal you so willingly pushed through had scum in it a successful Day 1 means little. You don't get brownie points for pushing the agenda of scum.
I'm not saying there wasn't any scum. 1 scum is likely, but I don't think there are two. 3/7 is still pretty good odds at ended up on scum if there was one scum on the team but getting 2 scum from the initial pick seems really unlucky. I don't understand why you are so sure it is 2 scum with a success but 1 scum on the team means a fail. I feel the exact opposite.
Either way, my entire argument was around not changing the team drastically unless we get a fail. If we get a success then the team is good and we need to stick with it.
I don't agree with these suggestions that Lone could be scummy simply for going with suggestions on Day 1. Exodus could be but it would have been pretty risky for a scum to just up and suggest a team out of the blue like that when it is so likely for one to end up on the team in the first place.
Lord of Castamere
Member
I'm just saying. Lone prodigys "Only give me credit for the quest when it makes me look good." Doesn't seem like a protein attitude. Exdou getting essentially a free quest proposal is a bit much too. Neither want to stick their names on Q1 if tonight fails but nonetheless their names are both attached. We'll need to go deeper into the motivations of this Q1 actions if Q2 fails.
I'm fine with Kalor's proposal as it keeps the three musketeers together. I definitely think any proposal should include the original team, or at the very least, a majority of the three musketeers. But I would prefer keeping the entire fam together. Changing up our team combination to a majority of new players seems unnecessary at the moment. If we can get another passed quest with the musketeers and the +1, then I think we would be close to victory.
If there is a fail in Quest 2, then I agree with Loc, it seems prudent to keep out Kalor, or any individual who +1 onto the musketeers. If Kalor is scum, then he could have joined the innocent musketeers and poisoned the well. There's also the chance he could be scum who joined onto more scum. Or that he's completely innocent and joined scum that decided now to fail the 2nd quest. But if we want to play it safe, then you can't have Kalor.
Among the three musketeers I would be the most comfortable seeing on another proposal after a failed quest would be Palmer. The fact he decided to vote reject on a proposal he was on seems like something scum wouldn't want to risk. He sticks out like a sore thumb (with Ultron) voting reject. And I don't think scum would want to stick out so early. If he was scum, it could have also backfired. Instead of 2 rejects, there could have been 5, and the proposal would have been thrown out. Then there would be a chance he'd get left out on the next proposal, which might not include any scum.
I hope y'all had a nice new years.
If there is a fail in Quest 2, then I agree with Loc, it seems prudent to keep out Kalor, or any individual who +1 onto the musketeers. If Kalor is scum, then he could have joined the innocent musketeers and poisoned the well. There's also the chance he could be scum who joined onto more scum. Or that he's completely innocent and joined scum that decided now to fail the 2nd quest. But if we want to play it safe, then you can't have Kalor.
Among the three musketeers I would be the most comfortable seeing on another proposal after a failed quest would be Palmer. The fact he decided to vote reject on a proposal he was on seems like something scum wouldn't want to risk. He sticks out like a sore thumb (with Ultron) voting reject. And I don't think scum would want to stick out so early. If he was scum, it could have also backfired. Instead of 2 rejects, there could have been 5, and the proposal would have been thrown out. Then there would be a chance he'd get left out on the next proposal, which might not include any scum.
I hope y'all had a nice new years.
Lord of Castamere
Member
Disagree. Everyone in that list was going to get scrutinized. Palmer rejecting himself is a hollow move. Like voting to lynch a fellow scum when you know they won't be lynched. It makes him stand out in a good way compared to Tim. Completely valid long game scum play.
This isn't like mafia. In that game, we know in real time when the votes are put down. In this game, the reject/approve vote is given anonymously and we only see the whole picture when the voting is over. So I don't think it's comparable.
In a traditional game of mafia, scum might try to show separation by putting a vote on their scum peer. But I doubt they'd add a vote to their peer if there's already a few votes on him/her. Unless of course they were bussing. Scum might prefer to put a lone vote on their ally, maybe during Day 1. If somehow that vote starts to gain traction, scum might come up with some explanation like "oh i just wanted to poke him but not lynch!" and unvote in order to cool down the situation. Scum can quickly react based on real time, public information.
The rules of this Avalon game makes such actions a little more dicey. And gives a greater chance for things to unknowingly backfire.
You're putting far too much importance on mission rejection for the first mission. It's not a risky scum move. The odds of randomly picking a scum for the first mission are something like 80%.
Agreed.
Let's examine the possibility of 1 or 2 scum.
There are 4/10 scum. That's 40% scum.
What would have happened if the mission was failed:
If one scum is part of the first mission, we then decide to never take the first 3 people onto another mission. That takes out 1 scum and 2 loyals from the pool. The ratio then becomes 3/7 scum. That's 43% scum. Therefore, mathematically speaking, scum should have absolutely failed the first mission if there was only one scum onboard. If they didn't, they made a mistake.
If two scum were part of the first mission, we then decide to never take the first 3 people onto another mission. That takes 2 scum and 1 loyal from the pool. The ratio then becomes 2/7 scum. That's 29% scum. Mathematically speaking, scum should not have failed the first mission if they had 2 scum onboard.
That's why I think it's more likely that there was either no scum or 2 scum onboard the first mission. If they had only 1 scum, they played poorly by not failing the mission.
Why would I put myself in the spotlight to get a team picked when it's so likely a team will end up with scum just by random chance?
Was traveling the last few days, sorry about that.
I feel really good about running back the same team with one more. In the games that are big enough to have 3 person quest ones it doesn't make a ton of sense for evil to pass the first mission to avoid suspicion. I understand the argument on two person quests (because it makes it so the other team member knows you're the bad guy and it comes down to a lie off) but with 3 even the other people on the mission aren't sure who failed it, and failing that first mission makes things soooo much easier for evil going forward.
That said, all things being equal I'm probably gonna try and reject a few proposals even if it does follow the above plan because I want the proposal order to progress towards me.
I feel really good about running back the same team with one more. In the games that are big enough to have 3 person quest ones it doesn't make a ton of sense for evil to pass the first mission to avoid suspicion. I understand the argument on two person quests (because it makes it so the other team member knows you're the bad guy and it comes down to a lie off) but with 3 even the other people on the mission aren't sure who failed it, and failing that first mission makes things soooo much easier for evil going forward.
That said, all things being equal I'm probably gonna try and reject a few proposals even if it does follow the above plan because I want the proposal order to progress towards me.
I agree with you that if there was only one scum on the first team then they should have failed it.
There is the chance that if there was one scum they passed it so that they would be on the second quest and could incriminate the new player or group. However that seems convoluted when they could just fail the first quest.
I want everyone to remember this proposal.
If Kalor is scum (hypothetically), then it's in scums interest to remove other scum from the group to include themselves. If Kalor is scum, then it's likely CzarTim is scum and LoC is not.
Just a hypothetical to keep in mind. I know we're juggling a lot of hypotheticals at this point but that's the name of the game.
These scenarios aren't really representative for this game because they got to talk for awhile before the game started. The most important thing they would've talked about was "if two of us are on a mission here's the order in which we fail" to avoid the unecessary double fail scenario. It is possible the entire evil team hasn't played before and this might not have come up during discussion, but I dunno, I think the collective knowledge of any four players here would've figured it out.
This makes me think the likely scenario is no evil on the first team.
Yeah, I mean, it's very possible they were overthinking it and didn't realize that failing would be in favor of scum on a first turn, since the game is usually set up in a way so that it's not in scum's favor to fail the first quest.
I'm not even talking about the double fail scenario. What I'm saying is that if the first mission failed, we probably would never include any people from that first group of three ever again. If 2 scum were on the mission, they would avoid failing the mission not because they'd get caught in a double fail, but because that would likely see them removed from any future mission.
Ah gotcha.
(I actually had it in my head that final mission was six people because with smaller games they do make the final mission be the total number of good players, which means excluding the whole first team doesn't work, but that isn't true for ten players.)
we'll just agree to disagree
