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[CzarTim]

Thinking about Kalor suggesting LoC instead of me:

From my perspective, I know I am town, so why would scum-Kalor try and swap town-me for LoC? The only thing I can think of is he wanted to reduce suspicion by bringing in another (new) possible quest-failer into the mix. If this is the case, LoC is almost assuredly town.

However, if I had been kicked off the team, it could have made me look pretty good. I was on the team that passed a quest, but not on the one who failed it. I know Ex's theory went the other way with things, but if you are scum and know I am town, would you consider the option that removing me would make me look scummy? I don't think I would.

 

[CzarTim]

It could be L_P, but I also feel that if he were scum he would have had a team in mind. Or maybe I just played into his hand by suggesting the team I suggested.

Also, good point about the 2 scum theory. Probably not L_P and someone else.

If we work under the assumption that it is unlikely LP and Palmer or I are scum together in the 2 scum theory, then you suggested two townies, which was exactly what scum LP would have picked anyway.

 

[TheExodu5]

You're making some really good points, and pointing out things I hadn't even thought of.

If Kalor is scum, removing you from the team definitely makes you look scummy...it wouldn't make you look good in my eyes. But you're right it could be interpreted differently and make you look good.

Everyone else needs to chime in wth more discussion and theories.

So far LoC, Palmer, and Czar have been active with theories and hard stances, but we're not seeing much of worth out of anyone else.

 

[Lone_Prodigy]

Do you think the Q2 team has 1 scum or 2?

If 1 scum, then it's 1 out of 4, and 3 out of the other 6 are scum. When picking a Q3 and Q4 team, the odds are better to choose from the group of 4.

If 2 scum, then it's 2 out of 4, and 2 out of the other 6 are scum. Better odds to choose from the group of 6.

I think we have to look ahead to Q4, where we'll need 5 players but 2 fails. If we use the Q2 team (with 1 scum), then there's a 1/2 chance we add one more scum for a fail. If there are 2 scum in Q2, then it doesn't matter who we add.

If we blow up the Q1 and Q2 teams for Q3, that introduces too many variables.

 

[Lone_Prodigy]

Thinking on it, 2 scum on Q1 would be quite good.

Q1 passes with 2 scum and 1 town.
Q2 fails with 2 scum and 2 town.

If you change it up for Q3 (without a complete overhaul), there's a 1/2 chance one scum is kept on the team, leading to another fail.

Then you get to Q4, where the Q3 team is changed. This quest probably succeeds because of the double fail.

Without the extra fail for Q5, it shouldn't be too hard for 1 scum to get on that team and fail it.

 

[TheExodu5]

I don't think it's likely any more that Q1 had 2 scum. That would mean CzarTim and Palmer being scum, and I have trouble believing that. If that were the case, I think they would have went for Kalor's first proposal that removed CzarTim.

 

[Palmer_v1]

As for me potentially being scum, know that I would have failed Q1 in a heartbeat given our setup, UNLESS there were 2 scum. Not because of the risk of a double fail(I would have organized the shit out of scum pre-game), but just because it would cast doubt on two of us and 1 townie, which is not a great tradeoff.

I also think Czartim would do the exact same thing.

LP I'm less certain about, but I simply don't see a reason for a lone scum to have passed Q1.

So it's my opinion that we either had 2 scum on Q1, or no scum on Q1. The latter seems more plausible and also reduces the chance that exodus is scum who tried to stack the team.

 

[Palmer_v1]

argh. If 3 townies on M1, why were Ultron and I the only rejections? Did scum agree beforehand to approve the first team no matter what? Did they neglect to even discuss voting? Or was there a goddamn scum and my theory is terrible and i'm making terrible assumptions.

 

[CzarTim]

argh. If 3 townies on M1, why were Ultron and I the only rejections? Did scum agree beforehand to approve the first team no matter what? Did they neglect to even discuss voting? Or was there a goddamn scum and my theory is terrible and i'm making terrible assumptions.

Yeah. I mean it's totally possible given how many people seem to be new to this format that we got a newbie scum team who didn't do the math and didn't understand the strategy yet.

 

[TheExodu5]

Shit you're right.

 

[CzarTim]

If I had been paying attention to the game more I would have rejected team two. Everyone on the mission should have rejected to potentially draw scum out. The holiday distracted me :-/

 

[TheExodu5]

I guess it's possible that L_P has been the only scum on the teams and has coasted by, despite making the mistake of not failing the first quest.

 

[Lone_Prodigy]

Hmm I think I can see the logic of failing Q1 if you're 1 scum.

With little information to go on, you'd likely overhaul the team, with a 3/7 chance of picking another scum. What are the odds of picking only the remaining 4 townies? Very low.

So Q2 fails and now you're left with 7 people chosen on two quests, at least 2 of which are scum. With no room for error, can you pick 5 townies out of the group? Doubtful.

So if we go Q1+1 for Q3:
Success: Q3 team+1 (unless scum passed Q3, but I see no reason to), Q4 passes, we win.
Fail: Q1+someone new for Q4, success, then have to decide if the +1 was scum or not.

 

[Lone_Prodigy]

Oh I see the problem with the three town theory.

 

[TheExodu5]

It's also possible scum passed it knowing that Kalor would be onboard for Q2.

 

[Kalor]

It's also possible scum passed it knowing that Kalor would be onboard for Q2.

Let's say I was scum and my teammate was on the first mission. Wouldn't they fail the first mission so that I could overhaul the group with myself on it, failing the second mission? Succeeding the mission doesn't really make sense in that case.

 

[TheExodu5]

Then again, I think scum would have spoken up before the vote. They would have brought to question why we were voting for a team that I created, which they did not.

Looking over old posts, I do find something odd. LoC says my plan is solid for the first team and he's onboard. And suddenly, even after it passes, he questions myself and L_P's legitimacy and says it was a scummy thing to propose that team. Why was he okay with it before the quest by not after, even when it passed?

 

[TheExodu5]

Let's say I was scum and my teammate was on the first mission. Wouldn't they fail the first mission so that I could overhaul the group with myself on it, failing the second mission? Succeeding the mission doesn't really make sense in that case.

I'm talking about the scenario where there were no scum on team 1. But in the scenario you propose, yes you're right.

 

[Palmer_v1]

Let's say I was scum and my teammate was on the first mission. Wouldn't they fail the first mission so that I could overhaul the group with myself on it, failing the second mission? Succeeding the mission doesn't really make sense in that case.

Do you mean the quest? It can get confusing if we're not consistent with our wording.

You approve/reject mission teams. Mission teams success or fail the quest.

 

[Kalor]

Sorry yeah quests. I saw missions wrote somewhere and mixed up my phrases.

 

[Rynam]

Proposal:
Rynam,
Palmer,
TheExodu5,
CzarTim

Is this an more acceptable Proposal than the first? 2 People from Quest 1, + 2 new People who I somehow trust are town.

 

[Kalor]

I'm torn on that proposal since I've been split on both Czar and Exodu. Although I've been leaning town for them recently.

Is this an more acceptable Proposal than the first? 2 People from Quest 1, + 2 new People who I somehow trust are town.

Saying you somehow trust yourself is some odd phrasing.

 

[Rynam]

I'm torn on that proposal since I've been split on both Czar and Exodu. Although I've been leaning town for them recently.



Saying you somehow trust yourself is some odd phrasing.

It is? I somehow trust Exodu5 and I trust myself. I should've mentioned Exodu5 and me seperately, but that phrasing doesn't sound odd for me if i include both people on the same time.

 

[Lone_Prodigy]

So the current dilemma is that scum wouldn't approve a town-only Q1 team, but a town-only Q1 team is the best explanation for its success?

I would reject that proposal. If it fails then suspicion falls on Rynam and Exodu5.

 

[Kalor]

It is? I somehow trust Exodu5 and I trust myself. I should've mentioned Exodu5 and me seperately, but that phrasing doesn't sound odd for me if i include both people on the same time.

It was just the way I read it but maybe it's just me. It doesn't matter anyway, just a small thing I noticed and it doesn't detract from your point.

 

[TheExodu5]

I still want to hear from ultron, UltraJay, kingkitty. And I think we need more input from LoC after all the discussion we've had.

 

[kingkitty]

I still want to hear from ultron, UltraJay, kingkitty. And I think we need more input from LoC after all the discussion we've had.

Exodus do you have anything to say about my prior post concerning you and "Avalon logic"?

 

[Palmer_v1]

If nothing else, it does feel a bit more like actual Avalon now. My least favorite thing is an inability to directly challenge someone for an immediate response. Like I can't point at someone who seems quiet to demand information and put them on the spot. They're free to basically ignore me while crafting a perfect non-answer.

 

[kingkitty]

scenarios about Day 1:

1. Scum got on the Quest 1 team, they thought it was a good idea to pass the quest. If it's one scum, then the scum team believed it would benefit them to let the quest succeed, and earn townie trust by getting into Quest 2. Perhaps a different reason, or an additional reason, is that scum believed that it was too risky to fail a quest. They didn't want the town to point out who was scum from the list of three candidates. If there was more than 1 scum on the Quest 1 team, then that's probably more motivation to not fail the quest.

2. No scum got on the Quest 1 team. And yet scum didn't seem to strongly push back enough in order to get a different team combination. Perhaps they didn't want to look suspicious by forcibly rejecting the first quest team. And that they were banking on scum submitter Kalor for Quest 2 to get them some glory.

 

[Lord of Castamere]

Then again, I think scum would have spoken up before the vote. They would have brought to question why we were voting for a team that I created, which they did not.

Looking over old posts, I do find something odd. LoC says my plan is solid for the first team and he's onboard. And suddenly, even after it passes, he questions myself and L_P's legitimacy and says it was a scummy thing to propose that team. Why was he okay with it before the quest by not after, even when it passed?

My assumption at the time was that you and lp were both scum. Which in hindsight didn't make much sense. As you said, why pitch a team when he could just propose it. That situation doesn't work if you're both scum.

Either

A:Lp and (Czar or Palmer) are scum.

Lp accepts first plan that comes along which randomly has scum in it. Plans to shift blame after Q2 failure.

B:Exdou and (Czar or Palmer) are scum.

Puts reasonable plan with scum attached as a shot the Dark. Hopes to be placed Q2 after success. Likely planned pregame with other scum. Can shift blame to lp afterwards.

C Kalor and (Czar Palmer or Lp) are scum.
First group was fluke. Kalor places himself on team, as was planned pregame. Quest fails.

D: Kalor is scum.
No scum team 1. Kalor is solo scum.

 

[kingkitty]

if scenario 1 (1 scum):

Exodus could be scum who tried to stack the team, tipping the scales from 84 percent chance to 100 percent chance of scum. Exodus seems knowledgeable of the game, so I don't know how super likely this plan is. Unless it's some kind of "well these newbies wouldn't expect me to do this!" gambit move.

L_P could be scum who copied this team combo. The lone scum L_P passes the first quest, and then fails the second quest.

Are they both scum? Seems kinda weird. Like, L_P could create his own scum combo without having to create a connection with Exodus. Doesn't make sense.

If L_P is scum, then I don't think Kalor is scum too. Why add another scum in Quest 2 when you definitely have to fail it? And that Kalor would probably be seen as suspicious for joining a Quest 1 passing team, which then resulted in the Quest 2 team failing. Why not switch scum Kalor with a townie? I guess there could be a chance that the scum chat didn't discuss this possible scenario, and scum Kalor winged it and did his own thing, adding himself along with his scumbro L_P/CzarTim/Palmer for Quest 2.

scenario 1 (more than 1 scum)

If Exodus is scum, why include two or more scum in the musketeer combination? Seems unnecessary as fuk. Unless again this some kind of messing with expectations gambit.

If L_P is scum, it's the same deal. Why risk it with two scum? Another possibility (that I'm not so keen on) is that scum L_P sheeped the town Exodus combo, which included 1 scum. Then L_P included himself in the proposal in order to follow Ultron's suggestion that proposers should include themselves. And that he thought this was a bold plan to include 2 scum because he was a newbie and it seemed like a good idea at the time.

If L_P is scum, then it's between CzarTim and Palmer as another scum.

scenario 2 (no scum)

Exodus can't be scum because then his suggestion would be dum dum. The musketeers aren't scum. Kalor is scum who joined in on Day 2.

 

[TheExodu5]

Exodus do you have anything to say about my prior post concerning you and "Avalon logic"?

I was not using it as a defense or as a suggestion for a proposal. It was simply the team I would propose if I were making a proposal. Why wouldn't I include myself?

I wasn't saying "pick me because I know I'm good".

 

[TheExodu5]

Out of the 4, who is most likely scum?

I'm going to run a risk and assume Palmer as town. For now.

1) Kalor and CzarTim. CzarTim slow played it and Kalor tried to swap him off the team to add a town LoC.

2) Kalor. He swapped CzarTim out for a scum LoC to stack the team for the 4th quest. I find this less likely.

3) L_P. Slow played and made his move on Q2.

The question is: do we trust CzarTim or L_P? Or neither?

 

[ultron87]

I made a chart! It has players in columns and As and Rs and stuff. It's very exciting. It hasn't really helped yet but I dunno, maybe it will if we can actually see a few votes/proposals to get some data. Then everything will line up and I'll like make a scatter plot and it'll be like "here's the scum!" So yeah, stay tuned for that and you scum can await your doom due to the hard spectre of DATA.

Ahem.

I'm not a fan of the whole "hey, here's a team" "oh okay" thing that happened day 1 (I really like to see people make their own proposals, generally, and then react to that) but I also don't think either one involved was scum. Definitely not Exodus at least. It is too much setting himself out there for seemingly very low gain. If Day 1 had failed that'd obviously be bad and look real bad for Exodus, but Day 1 succeeding doesn't clear him either, just makes it seem like he got lucky. So why would scum make the "here's a team" gambit?

Of course, as others have said, the quest being swiftly approved suggests that the scum as a whole were fine with it. Otherwise they could really safely reject, because that's a completely reasonable thing to do for the first few proposals.

I'd certainly like the new blood on the next team be from the people that rejected Quest 2. The most recent proposal is alright, but I don't like Tim, especially after the "well I would've rejected" thing he said.

 

[Lord of Castamere]

Oh yeah, I'll reject that proposal. Don't trust Exdou or Czartim.

 

[UltraJay]

I think we have to look ahead to Q4, where we'll need 5 players but 2 fails.QUOTE]

Thinking about Quest 4, we really shouldn't let the first proposal go through. It'll be an important quest for both sides and if scum see 2 scum on the proposal they will overwhelmingly vote APPROVE meaning only 2 town need to agree to let it pass. If there are not 2 scum on the team then they will try to fail it. If the stakes are high enough they will go through with this. We need to see the votes for that quest proposal.

I see more how this game is played. I will probably reject any proposal this phase so we can get more information this time around. I was one of those clincher votes that put APPROVE at 6 because I thought we were all in agreement about OG team + 1 and its flip. I won't do that this time.

 

[CzarTim]

Where I'm at:

I don't think LP and Ex are scum together.

I don't think LP and Palmer are scum together.

If Ex is scum, Palmer is scum. This doesn''t necessarily work in reverse though.

I don't think Kalor and LoC are scum together.

-------------

In terms of team two suspicions it goes LP > Kalor > Palmer.

I won't approve a mission with either LP or Kalor.

 

[CzarTim]

A:Lp and (Czar or Palmer) are scum.

Lp accepts first plan that comes along which randomly has scum in it. Plans to shift blame after Q2 failure.

But once again, why put two scum on the team when you pick the team? LP could have ignored Ex easily.

B:Exdou and (Czar or Palmer) are scum.

Puts reasonable plan with scum attached as a shot the Dark. Hopes to be placed Q2 after success. Likely planned pregame with other scum. Can shift blame to lp afterwards

This is a possibility, which is why I am not quite as trusting of Palmer as others.

C Kalor and (Czar Palmer or Lp) are scum.
First group was fluke. Kalor places himself on team, as was planned pregame. Quest fails.

From everyone else's perspective, this makes me look worse due to Kalor's proposal. From mine though, it makes me feel (slightly) better about Kalor.

D: Kalor is scum.
No scum team 1. Kalor is solo scum.

And of course this.

--------------

But like ex you are forgetting the possibility that Palmer and I are scum together.

 

[CzarTim]

I won't approve a mission with either LP or Kalor.

And I'll only accept Palmer on the team if Ex is on it too.

 

[CzarTim]

Oh yeah, I'll reject that proposal. Don't trust Exdou or Czartim.

Ex has called me scum every step of the way this game. Immediately after quest one passed through now. Why would he do that if we are scum together? It makes much more sense for Palmer and him to be scum together.

The fact that you both are sweeping the Palmer as scum possibility under the rug makes me much more suspicious of him.

 

[CzarTim]

I don't like Tim, especially after the "well I would've rejected" thing he said.

I can see how that post looks bad, but it's the truth. I wasn't paying attention closely due to the game and didn't do the math. I've just been feeling shitty about it since it hit me.

 

[TheExodu5]

The truth of the matter is that in a 10 player game we don't have enough information to go on, so we need to take risks and make assumption. So far, that risk and assumption that I'm making is that Palmer is town. I'll admit defeat if he is indeed a spy...he's had me completely fooled. He is clearly an experience Avalon player so I won't put it beyond him, but he's played a good town game.

 

[TheExodu5]

I'd certainly like the new blood on the next team be from the people that rejected Quest 2. The most recent proposal is alright, but I don't like Tim, especially after the "well I would've rejected" thing he said.

He's not the only one to have done that:

Yeah, I maybe sorta should've voted against it simply from my problem with Exodus picking the team, but my one vote wouldn't have made it go through. You're right that more proposals = more votes which leads to more discussion. What are people's thoughts on whether this will pass or fail? I don't believe a success here would let the three party members off the hook. I think scum wouldn't want to fail such an early quest and want to get town points for being on a passing team.

Scum being present on this team could also explain the votes being so overwhelmingly positive. I don't think a SUCCESS on this quest is going to give us much information. Or I could just be overthinking this.

It's definitely a scummy thing to do and puts a bit of suspicion on both.

Come to think of it, let's look at UltraJay's post after the next quest:

I guess I'm too used to normal Mafia. I thought most were fine with the proposal of the original team + 1 but I guess in Avalon more proposals = more discussion. I'll keep that in mind from now on. I was pretty certain most were for the proposal and were ready to see the flip.

Rynam has only really posted when prodded. Is he going to come here and do a proposal?

He seems to realize for a second time that "more proposals = more discussion".

He's definitely on my scum list.

 

[CzarTim]

To be clear, I don't think Palmer is necessarily scum, but from where I am sitting there's at least a 33% chance that it's him. I think it being him is the least likely, but I'm not writing it off.

 

[kingkitty]

At this moment, I wouldn't vibe with Kalor being in the proposal. I would vibe the best with Ultron + Palmer who rejected two quest proposals in a row, which (in my eyes) earn them some credibility. I don't think I can support including L_P at the moment for he could have played a role in the Quest 2 failure by sheeping an unfavorable Exodus Quest 1 suggestion. I don't feel the greatest about Exodus either, although he did reject the 2nd quest, along with Rynam. And if L_P was definitely scum, then Exodus is definitely not.

As discussed earlier in this thread (by CzarTim himself), CzarTim was initially subbed out by Kalor (who could be scum). CzarTim could have been scum that scum Kalor wanted to sub out with townie Loc. Maybe Kalor thought there was too much scum in the team. Alternatively, scum Kalor subbed scum Loc in with townie CzarTim in the hopes of stacking the numbers. Alternatively alternatively, scum Kalor subbed scum CzarTim with scum Loc but I'm pretty sure that would be dum dum.

If there were more than 1 scum in the Quest 1 proposal, then it is possible that Palmer and CzarTim are both scum. But the voting patterns seem completely opposite. Palmer rejected both proposals, while CzarTim approved both (although he later had regret for approving the 2nd one). Perhaps they both came up with a clever plan ahead of time with their voting patterns, which isn't unlikely if they were both scum. But for the time being, I'm keeping my gut vibe with Palmer. And if they were both scum, I wonder how much CzarTim would want to risk implying there's something suspicious about Palmer.

I got some busywork, so I might not being around for when the proposal phase ends. I can be reached through telegram.

 

[Rats Off To Ya]

The proposal phase for Quest 3, Proposal 1 has ended. The proposed team is Rynam, Palmer_v1, TheExodu5 and CzarTim. You all have 24 hours to approve or reject this team. Please send your PMs to me, not Droplet.

 

[Rats Off To Ya]

The assembled Knight of Arthur were at an impasse. It seemed the only common ground they had was their mutual distrust for one another.

They now had hard evidence that the Minions of Mordred were among them, somewhere. It fell to Rynam to propose a team for the next quest.

"Well, how about this one?" he posited.

The proposal went up for a vote. Finally, the group could find something to agree on.

Votes:

Lone_Prodigy: Reject
Kalor: Reject
Rynam: Approve
UltraJay: Reject
TheExodu5: Reject
Lord of Castamere: Reject
ultron87: Reject
kingkitty: Reject
Palmer_v1: Reject
CzarTim: Reject

The first proposal for Quest 3 has been rejected. UltraJay now has 48 hours to propose another team of four players.

 

[Lone_Prodigy]

Savage.

 

[Kalor]

That's a more universal rejection that I thought it would be.

 

[CzarTim]

lol