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[CaptainABAB]

The Seattle Times: Business & Technology: Microsoft game sales light up from "Halo 2"

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2002154247_vidgames19.html


Note: not much new if you hang around on these forums but the top 10 for 2004 chart surprised me as I didn't know that NFL 2K5 was on their twice! And Madden 2005 only once!!

Also, if you are a GCN fan, be prepared for some quotes to get you fired up.

 

[Broshnat]

Some perfectly fair comments I think.

2004 was a very weak year for GC, lacking even one real killer game (MP2 and Paper Mario are ace, but neither are ever gonna be big system sellers). Despite this, they (Nintendo on GC and GBA) did have a large number of very solid sellers. They probably had 20-25 in the top 100 even though many placed below 25.

EA dominance as usual.


Nintendo's 2005 will be different...

 

[Amir0x]

2005 will be different...

400,000 in Jan! :lol :lol

 

[lexi]

400,000 in Jan! :lol :lol

 

[Broshnat]

400,000 in Jan! :lol :lol

Ok, let's clear this up.

Originally I said 350k (see the RE4 sales prediction thread) and I'm gonna stick to this as a high, but POSSIBLE prediction.

I wait to be proven wrong. Anything even approaching 300k will be wildly over what you said so we can see who's closest.

You said 200k, right?

So anything over 275k and I'm right, under and you are. Deal?

 

[DarienA]

Ok, let's clear this up.

Originally I said 350k (see the RE4 sales prediction thread) and I'm gonna stick to this as a high, but POSSIBLE prediction.

I wait to be proven wrong. Anything even approaching 300k will be wildly over what you said so we can see who's closest.

You said 200k, right?

So anything over 275k and I'm right, under and you are. Deal?

Is there a possible banning involved in this deal?

 

[Amir0x]

Ok, let's clear this up.

Originally I said 350k (see the RE4 sales prediction thread) and I'm gonna stick to this as a high, but POSSIBLE prediction.

Let's see...

Source1
Source2

The GC could do 400k in Jan. And RE4 could do 550k

For hardware?

Well I said 400k. 550k for the game.

Look at all the hype and attention it's getting. If it encouraged 250k gamecubes to be sold to new owners then that could make some sense...

So you're going with 350k now? Lowering your expectations? Ok, fine.

]
I wait to be proven wrong. Anything even approaching 300k will be wildly over what you said so we can see who's closest.

You said 200k, right?

Let's see...

Source1

250,000 may or may not be plausible, but I'm predicting 180,000 at most. 200,000 at best case.

So anything over 275k and I'm right, under and you are. Deal?

I suppose I agree, but if we stick with your original prediction of 400k then it'd be better at 300k

Still, I'm down.

 

[king zell]

If GC did anything more than 150k in Jan that should be considered great

 

[Broshnat]

Look at my ORIGINAL prediction in the RE4 SALES PREDICTION THREAD:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Gonna make some final RE4 predictions:

Jan 2005 NPD: 500k (GC jumps to 350k)
Japan first week: 400k (240k first day, cube jumps to 60k that week).

Totals:
Japan 850k
USA 1.45m
PAL 700k

3.0m

Optomistic maybe, but who knows?

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here


Which was dated before and I think 350k gives me a bit more breathing space.

We got a deal then?

 

[AniHawk]

If GC did anything more than 150k in Jan that should be considered great

Agreed.

The only system seller I see left is a well marketed Zelda + a price drop to $80.

 

[bitwise]

lol @ brosnhat

 

[Amir0x]

Look at my ORIGINAL prediction in the RE4 SALES PREDICTION THREAD:



Here


Which was dated before and I think 350k gives me a bit more breathing space.

We got a deal then?

Wouldn't the later prediction be better suited to your current thought process? You're trying to weasel some breathing room, but that's fine.

Yeah, we got a deal. But it's lame without something on the line. How about we get a mod/admin to agree that whoever wins gets to give the other person a BAD title? Or gets banned for two weeks? Or something.

Bets w/out things on the line are LAME.

 

[jedimike]

lol @ brosnhat

as I said in the NPD about his Halo 2 predictions... take enough guesses at something and sooner or later you're going to be right.

 

[Broshnat]

Wouldn't the later prediction be better suited to your current thought process? You're trying to weasel some breathing room, but that's fine.

Yeah, we got a deal. But it's lame without something on the line. How about we get a mod/admin to agree that whoever wins gets to give the other person a BAD title? Or gets banned for two weeks? Or something.

Bets w/out things on the line are LAME.

TBH, if I lost neither of those things would worry me all that much- a ban would allow some much-needed work although I wanna gloat / weasel out of my other RE4 predictions as well when they come in, so hmmmm....

You can just have the satisfaction of being "right" (read: being a pussy and taking the easy no-risk option as opposed to having some balls).

 

[Broshnat]

as I said in the NPD about his Halo 2 predictions... take enough guesses at something and sooner or later you're going to be right.

Which NPD? When?

 

[Amir0x]

TBH, if I lost neither of those things would worry me all that much- a ban would allow some much-needed work although I wanna gloat / weasel out of my other RE4 predictions as well when they come in, so hmmmm....

So you wouldn't care if any of those things would happen, but you still don't want to put anything on the line?

You can just have the satisfaction of being "right" (read: being a pussy and taking the easy no-risk option as opposed to having some balls).

Should I read that as you being a pussy and taking the easy no-risk option or as me being a pussy?

Because I clearly want to put something on the line

But yeah, I can have that satisfaction of being "right"...I guess...still not as cool

 

[AniHawk]

The winner should be able to rename the loser.

 

[jedimike]

Which NPD? When?

The Dec one...

Halo 2?

Just over a million as I predicted (and not 3m+ like some people :lol)??

You can't seriously be laughing... after you've been owned time and time again on Halo 2 sales. I guess if you throw out enough predictions, sooner or later one is bound to be close.

MGS 3 will struggle to do much more than 2 million in it's lifetime. Halo 2 will not sell a million in a week (no way!!). About 2m by the end of the year for halo, and 1.3m for MGS 3 (MGS2 was on about 1.22m in Nov/Dec 2001)

 

[Amir0x]

If you provide a source Broshnat owned for Halo 2.

 

[Broshnat]

So you wouldn't care if any of those things would happen, but you still don't want to put anything on the line?



Should I read that as you being a pussy and taking the easy no-risk option or as me being a pussy?

Because I clearly want to put something on the line

But yeah, I can have that satisfaction of being "right"...I guess...still not as cool

But you're not putting anything on the line. I'm the one making the bold predictions are you're just saying "*whine* well look at past trends *whine* a 200% increase is unlikely *whine* I'd love to see it, BUT I'm gonna just be conservative like everyone else *whine*".

You're making quite a "safe" bet there so yes, you don't really have a lot to lose as there's a slim chance it will do 350k, but enough of a chance that I'm gonna support the idea. I like supporting the underdog, trying to predict a phenomenon, where's the fun in it all otherwise?

When Pokemon Red / Green launched in Japan on Feb 26th 96 to mediocre reviews and did 300k in week 1, only to drop to 50-60k week 2 then pick up again when more arrived- people may have said it would be a success but who would have predicted 10m+ in Japan alone, revitalisation of GB sales and a whole hoarde of renewed interest and pokemon clones / sequels.

Who could have forseen that a month before the game came out? YOY numbers wouldn't have predicted it. The fact no game had ever sold over 4m before in Japan other than SMB which was miles ahead on 6.8m and Pokemon cruises past that in little over a year and then carries on to 10m is madness. Of course now we expect 1m+ first week etc, but you hopefully see my point.

It's 90% likely that you're right, but I'm one of those people who likes to take a chance

 

[Amir0x]

But you're not putting anything on the line. I'm the one making the bold predictions are you're just saying "*whine* well look at past trends *whine* a 200% increase is unlikely *whine* I'd love to see it, BUT I'm gonna just be conservative like everyone else *whine*".

It has nothing to do with being a pussy, it has to do with making the CORRECT prediction. We're in this to make the correct prediction, not to fellate our favorite videogame companies. You're not growing a pair of balls because you predict absurd numbers for something. I can do that too. The only problem is at the end of the day we'll both be wrong, and the point of this discussion is to not be wrong.

You're making quite a "safe" bet there so yes, you don't really have a lot to lose as there's a slim chance it will do 350k, but enough of a chance that I'm gonna support the idea. I like supporting the underdog, trying to predict a phenomenon, where's the fun in it all otherwise?

I like supporting the underdog too, but I'm not unrealistic.

When Pokemon Red / Green launched in Japan on Feb 26th 96 to mediocre reviews and did 300k in week 1, only to drop to 50-60k week 2 then pick up again when more arrived- people may have said it would be a success but who would have predicted 10m+ in Japan alone, revitalisation of GB sales and a whole hoarde of renewed interest and pokemon clones / sequels.

So...you think RE4 is going to become some Pokemon-esque phenomenon? Or am I reading too much into this? Not to mention GB was in the arena where it was the only viable videogame handheld (compared to its failure competitors), whereas the GC is in a field with two other consoles, one of which is far, far more popular.

It's 90% likely that you're right, but I'm one of those people who likes to take a chance

90% likely? I love my odds!

 

[Broshnat]

If you provide a source Broshnat owned for Halo 2.

I was owned on Halo 2, as was everone. This is my point. Trends and conventional logic / wisdom would say no game will ever do 2.4m in a day. But it did.

People that thought it would weren't making an accurate guess or in some way insightful, they just guessed high and were right.

It's a funny idea to be "owned" by someone who hasn't really got a clue what they're talking about. I was at a quiz the other night here in the UK. The tie-breaker was "how much did Titanic cost to make?" It's well know the answer is $200m, but what is that in english pounds? Depends what the exchange rate was. Maybe they used todays exchange rate. Could be anything from 115m to 140m pounds. I said 125m as a pretty good guess (about $1.6 to the pound, about right in 97), but they had taken TODAY's rate at about 1.8 to the pound and got 115m. Some woman had randomly guessed 110 and she won.

I was owned by someone who had no clue what she was talking about by a quiz question that was flawed in it's approach.

Anyone who SERIOUSLY thought Halo 2 would do 2m+ on it's first day did so because they had no experience of the industry and just got lucky imo.

Sometimes the safe-bet is the way to go, sometimes a bit of a stab in the dark and some blind faith. I just have a feeling about RE4, but we'll wait and see...

 

[jedimike]

It's 90% likely that you're right, but I'm one of those people who likes to take several chances

Fixed

 

[Broshnat]

I like supporting the underdog too, but I'm not unrealistic.

But this is my very point, what is unrealistic?

2.4m for Halo 2 in a day was unrealistic.

10.23m for Pokemon R/G/B was unrealistic. Wildly so. And 30m worldwide? For a game where you collect and fight little monsters? Who'd have thought? Who looked at that and though "wow, bet that'll outsell every other game ever made by miles".

I'm not saying RE4 will be a revolution or be a 2nd coming or anything else, but it's short sighted to say it's "impossible" it can produce the numbers I've said. Anything is possible.

 

[Amir0x]

But this is my very point, what is unrealistic?

2.4m for Halo 2 in a day was unrealistic.

You know, I think it's worth noting that I did not think such sales for Halo 2 was unrealistic. I thought it was pretty obvious that this was THE big game for a console that was finally gaining some real momentum, and that it possibly had the biggest marketing push ever for a videogame. I don't understand why anyone would conceive that it wouldn't outdo Halo or that it wouldn't post such fantastic numbers.

But that's in the past.

10.23m for Pokemon R/G/B was unrealistic. Wildly so. And 30m worldwide? For a game where you collect and fight little monsters? Who'd have thought? Who looked at that and though "wow, bet that'll outsell every other game ever made by miles".

This is a far better example. And in this, I will say that the videogame industry was about hankering for a huge cultural phenomenon in the handheld sector. That said, you're right... I would not have predicted that.

I'm not saying RE4 will be a revolution or be a 2nd coming or anything else, but it's short sighted to say it's "impossible" it can produce the numbers I've said. Anything is possible.

Anything is possible only in that you can't rule anything out, but short of God himself endorsing the Gamecube I don't think it's very realistic.

But that's my viewpoint.

 

[Broshnat]

But that's my viewpoint.

Indeed, and mine is somewhat different.

A million would be crazy, yes, but 350k isn't really. I think XB did 230k+ last Jan off the back of nothing (and it's weakest Xmas since launch) and both PS2 and GBA did 350k. It's not like the number is completely insane. As has been said a number of times, it's huge AAA 3rd party game that will appeal to those outside of the normal Nintendo crowd who already have a GC.

When TOS came out in Japan, the GC had something like a yoy increase of 150% for the week. These kind of spikes aren't that crazy given the circumstances.

But we shall see...

 

[Broshnat]

I did not think such sales for Halo 2 was unrealistic.

"were unrealistic"

Sorry, pet peeve

 

[Cubsfan23]

I was owned on Halo 2, as was everyone.

:lol :lol more like half

 

[Amir0x]

"were unrealistic"

Sorry, pet peeve

Touché

 

[Broshnat]

You know, I think it's worth noting that I did not think such sales for Halo 2 was unrealistic. I thought it was pretty obvious that this was THE big game for a console that was finally gaining some real momentum, and that it possibly had the biggest marketing push ever for a videogame. I don't understand why anyone would conceive that it wouldn't outdo Halo or that it wouldn't post such fantastic numbers.

But that's in the past.

But but but, 2.5m in a DAY??

Zelda: Ocarina took 6 weeks to do that and look how hyped that was? And on a userbase of around 14-15m at the time.

Halo had only done 3.7m at the time itself.

The next biggest XB game, Splinter Cell, still hasn't passed 1.5m. Even GTA:VC took 2-3 weeks to do that much on 20m+ userbase.

The smart money would definitely have said Halo 2 couldn't possibly do that.

We can all sit here in hindsight and say "I think it's worth noting that I did not think such sales for Halo 2 was unrealistic." :lol :lol

 

[Broshnat]

:lol :lol more like half

Yes, read the thread about the quiz in the UK- it was aimed at persons like yourself mainly.

Touché