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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM
- Thread starter Hasney
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They're streamlining that, and line up a sweetheart tax deal for incoming bankers (basically 7 year hiatus from paying anything on income from on foreign assets). From what I understand for your wealthy fucker class, France's income tax while offering a higher headline rate does offer far more opportunities for legal tax deduction (childcare, schooling, commutes etc)
Alx
Member
I find that both fascinating and terrifying. And it's not only in Britain, it seems all populist politicians are taking a few pages from the Trump book. For someone who looks so much like a joke character, it's mind-boggling how influential he can be. It's like there is a new wave of politics going all in on stupidity... and I'm really afraid it may work for them.
The problem here is time, if we assume that the UK invokes article 50 at the start of next year, it will take many years before a deal is set in place, even if we assume that the UK manages to get a EEA deal in place after the 2 year limit, that is still 2 and half years of high uncertainty, which no sane large business is going to risk, this before taking into account the problems EEA brings as been pointed out before.
Should also be said that the UK being able to pull an EEA deal in 2 years after article 50, would pretty much mean a total concession on all points by the UK.
accel
Member
I hope (but don't know, this needs further info) that the UK can activate article 50 after reaching an agreement with the EU that after exiting the EU it will immediately go to EEA. Then the process would be: spend some time talking it through, the UK is in the EU -> activate article 50 -> spend some time exiting (limit of 2 years or some other limit, not important), the UK is still in the EU -> exit from EU into EEA, then the UK is in the EEA. Ie, no gaps.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
The EU won't negotiate before Article 50 is invoked, so that's out of the question. Best case scenario, EEA negotiations, which would require several years, could take place at the same time the UK negotiates its removal from the EU and magically conclude right before Brexit, although this is extremely implausible as the UK is ill equiped as it is to deal with the fundamentals of Brexit and the EU knows that time plays in their favour.
Even if things would go implausibly great, signing, ratifying and putting to work said EEA membership would require around two years on top of the negotiation period, and that's being incredibly optimistic.
Nobody planned for this. It's a complete clusterfuck. The irresponsibility is staggering.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
She's our Trump. She was managing yuge teams of people and very large budgets, she'll negotiate for us, she's great at negotiating, she has people who can negotiate, and she'll Make Britain Great Again by throwing out the foreigners.
The only reason she isn't building a wall is because glacial retreat did that a while ago.
anonymous_abc
Member
What about a wall towards the Republic and Scotland?
This is the text of a speech delivered by Andrea Leadsom to a rally at Millbank Tower this morning:
Thank you for coming along this morning.
Id like to begin by taking a moment to remember all those that died in the 7/7 bombings eleven years ago today.
Above all things, our thoughts and prayers are with their families on this day.
We should never forget how special our democracy is.
Over in the House of Commons, I and my colleagues are about exercise that democratic right to make an incredibly important decision.
We will be selecting two MPs to go forward to the country so that many of you can decide who will be our next Prime Minister.
That person will face enormous challenges and today I want to tell you why I want to lead the Party and this great country of ours.
You see, I am an optimist.
I truly believe we can be the greatest nation on earth.
As we show that the UK is once again open to the world and united in our new destiny, so we will expand our horizons.
Prosperity should be our goal, not austerity.
I want to spread prosperity to every corner of our country.
I want to help create more jobs.
Because, we need to hear and heed those millions of our fellow citizens who feel and fear that their countrys leaders dont worry about them.
Those people who think that chief executives of big businesses get telephone number salaries, that bear no relation to the performance of their companies.
I say to all of those people I am with you and I want you to share in the great future for this country.
I want to see better training, smarter working yes, and higher pay for the many.
I want to lead a nation where anyone who aims high can achieve their dreams.
Mark Carney, Bank of England Governor, was exactly right last week when he said:
The UK can handle change. It has one of the most flexible economies in the world and benefits from a deep reservoir of human capital, world class infrastructure and the rule of law. Its people are admired the world over for their strength under adversity. The question is not whether the UK will adjust but rather how quickly and how well.
He then goes on to say that a clear plan is needed. Hes absolutely right.
So today I want to speak to the markets as well as to the nation.
No one needs to fear our decision to leave the EU.
We will do so carefully, reassuring our European friends, and those businesses who are worrying about change
Trade must be the top priority: continued tariff free trade with the EU; continued free trade with those countries we have agreements with as a current member of the EU; and vitally, seizing the opportunity to take up new free trade deals with fast growing economies around the world.
Theres a big job to do.
But we also have to give certainty to different groups in our own country.
Certainty on migration. We want fair but controlled immigration fair to those who are already here; and fair to all the talents across the world.
So I tell you today I will not use peoples lives as bargaining chips in some negotiation. People need certainty and they will get it I say to all who are legally here that you will be welcome to stay.
Certainty for farmers, universities and others who currently receive EU money. To them I say the UK government, my government, will give you the same money when we leave, and we will work with you to make more targeted use of the subsidies.
Certainty for those who want to travel, study and collaborate with others on the continent I say to them, you will be absolutely free to do so.
But a key job of our new Prime Minister will be to ensure the continued success of the UK economy.
Already we can see that the forecasts of a disaster for sterling, for equities and for interest rates have not been proven correct.
The pound is weaker, partly as a result of the markets being wrong on the result of the referendum, and partly on the expectation of further interest rate easing. But lower sterling is good for exports and makes inward investment more attractive.
It means we may import less and buy more at home.
The FTSE 100 is trading higher, and outperforming other global stock markets.
The government cost of borrowing has dropped with private sector loans available at the same rates as before.
That means the price of our state borrowing has fallen by a remarkable 40 per cent with 10 year interest rates below 0.8 per cent versus 1.37 per cent on 23 rd June.
Our valuable financial services sector has been boosted by both Barclays and HSBC bosses saying their plans are to stick with the U.K.
I will work tirelessly to reassure investors that the UK is open for business and a great place to employ people.
When we come to see the post EU figures I expect to see continued growth.
I expect to see people buying goods, going about their normal business, buying their homes and yes, enjoying a pay rise.
I will expect high standards of company behaviour, recognising their obligations to their communities and to their employees.
Mine will be a realistic but optimistic voice.
I believe we have a great future ahead of us.
We need to unite, to be positive and to make the most of our enormous strengths:
We are one of the worlds biggest economies;
We speak the worlds international business language of English;
Our contract law and our judicial system are second to none, inspiring great investor confidence;
We are part of a Commonwealth of 2.3 billion consumers, many of whose economies are growing fast;
We have historic trading links across the world, and from tourism to software to financial services to manufacturing, we have a great deal to offer.
This is the country that gave the world the rule of law, parliamentary democracy, the right to own property, the English language and the free market.
We are a remarkable people and we have so much more to give.
That is why here today I say, let us unite, and together we will write another great chapter one of prosperity, tolerance and hope.
http://www.conservativehome.com/parl...full-text.html
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
fun
How can a weaker pound be good for us? Is she insane?
She sounds clueless to be honest...Her speech from today was mostly a dud after being billed as something with big economic ideas.
She's as fake as her fake CV.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
fun
I think it was Boles trying to force May's hand. It really does make Leadsom even more dangerous... which is even more reason to stop her reaching the final ballot.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Turnips will turn into a hot commodity any time soon.
Even in the ideal case in which UK finds some super-negotiators and EU is really lenient and overrules the statements made until now, no agreement can be signed or approved within EU before UK is officially out of EU.
And if you think that EU officials are lying now when they say that they won't negotiate anything before UK triggers article 50, and no trade negotiations before the exit procedure is finished, what makes you think that anything agreed verbally between UK and EU before exit will be held? (selective trusting and all)
accel
Member
Actually I did some reading and came to correct myself and say exactly the same, that negotiations on going from the EU not just into fresh air but into EEA would (have to) happen after activating article 50. As it stands, I don't see why negotiating that should take much time at all given that the UK would just be upholding part of the same rules it already lived by for years (so, I don't see basis for your second para which says going to EEA would require years after exiting under article 50 concludes, with the process looking like: invoke article 50 -> up to two years exiting -> more years until EEA -> EEA), but since I've been wrong about some other things, I might not be seeing something, so I'll do some more reading.
I agree it's a complete clusterfuck.
It would (could) be two agreements signed simultaneously or perhaps even the same agreement.
I corrected myself on the order. Yes, you are right, negotiations (outside of very preliminary talks) would be after invoking article 50.
But there is a pot of gold at the end of every rainbow. So we would become the richest nation in the world!
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
part of the reason it will take so long is because the UK doesn't actually have any negotiating staff. All of our deals since 1973 have been achieved as part of a European process, so we never needed our own people. Australia hires over 200 relatively experienced diplomats to do this kind of thing and can still only negotiate trade deals at a top speed of about one per two years. We're not starting quite from zero, because the UK was a leading figure in negotiating the EU's trade deals and provided a lot of the staff (and also direction, contrary to all those people who thought we didn't have any influence), so we have a small experienced core to start with when we call them back from the EU (assuming they want to come back, since the EU guaranteed most of their jobs precisely because it wants to keep them), but we'll be desperately understaffed for the opening of negotiations and any new hirees will not have the experience needed for something of this scope. I would be shocked if we could negotiate a deal that would be in place before Brexit actually happened; I would expect at a minimum a year at WTO rates which would do incredible economic damage.
It can't be. Because both need to be ratified by the countries (and the EP I think) and technically UK can't sign a trade treaty with EU or join EEA before it's out of EU.
JonnyDBrit
Member
Basically it involves the assumption that the weakening pound will encourage foreign customers to spend more because their ability to afford British products and services goes up. As an example, if the currency value were to drop by 10%, but the total value of exports purchased went up by 11% or more as a result of that drop, then that would technically be a net positive because overall, more money is being spent than before.
Except of course that completely forgets the other factors that go into all of that, like companies raising the prices of items due to the lowering value of their domestic revenue, the lowered ability of British persons to import goods that may be necessary to their businesses, the fact that businesses may not desire to buy more stock when they make a de facto profit by buying the same amount for less, so on.
Edit: That and the pound's devaluation affects the entire economy, not merely exports.
All of this wouldn't be so bad if it wasn't so painfully obvious how cushty our position in the EU was.
Leadsom says the markets have been taken by surprise. They were expecting a remain vote. So that is why sterling has fallen.
But when sterling falls, that is good of exports, she says. It can be good for the economy.
And you were making fun of us having Berlusconi as prime minister eh?
anonymous_abc
Member
Leadsom says the markets have been taken by surprise. They were expecting a remain vote. So that is why sterling has fallen.
But when sterling falls, that is good of exports, she says. It can be good for the economy.
And you were making fun of us having Berlusconi as prime minister eh?
Bunga bunga.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Between the outrageous lack of planning, the back stabbing and the leaked messages, I'm starting to believe that the collected image of British politics was nothing but a mirage. It's as bad as Italian and Spanish ones, only posher.
Leadsom says the markets have been taken by surprise. They were expecting a remain vote. So that is why sterling has fallen.
But when sterling falls, that is good of exports, she says. It can be good for the economy.
And you were making fun of us having Berlusconi as prime minister eh?
I concede that British politicians have that going. At least their kiddy fiddling and piggie fucking is kept in private.
Q: You said in your speech this morning you want tariff-free trade with the EU. That means being in the single market, doesnt it?
No, says Leadsom. She does not accept that.
She doesn't accept that.
This would have been greatly entertaining, if it wasn't for me being in the UK for 10 years now.
Monty Mole
Member
She's out of her depth. And she just says what people want to hear, not the truth.
Napoleonthechimp
Member
Investment banks pledge to help City of London retain top status in wake of Brexit vote
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/investment-banks-pledge-to-help-city-of-london-retain-top-status-in-wake-of-brexit-vote-a7124826.html
Promises promises
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/investment-banks-pledge-to-help-city-of-london-retain-top-status-in-wake-of-brexit-vote-a7124826.html
Promises promises
I thought Boris Johnson was your Trump. How many Trumps can a country reasonably have?
Red Liquorice
Member
She didn't want equal marriage laws, she's a twat.
I love that she guarantees so many things that she has absolutely no control over, that never gets old.
As others have pointed out, the UK has a very severe lack of negotiators https://twitter.com/colettebrowne/status/750066964425543680 according to that article Britain had 20 trade negotiators against 600 EU ones, it estimates the UK would need between 700 and 750.
Which is likely a low ball estimation, considering the Chinese have said you would need 500 negotiators and 10 years to make a deal with them, similar numbers would not be unreasonable for a trade deal with the US, let us remember the EU which has a lot of experience and isn't in a position of extreme disadvantage, has been trying to make a trade deal with the US now for quite a few years, and those negotiations are expected to last until the end of this decade.
So a 2 year negotiation for EEA is realistically highly unlikely even if the UK had the trained professionals for it, which they don't, let alone have ones with as much experience.
Adding to that the UK is already in a very massively weaker trading position, and by letting the 2 years pass without a EEA deal (as such leaving the EU and entering WTO with tariffs and so on), their position not only becomes weaker but the EU gains even more businesses that will have to move to the EU, so really one can very easily argue that it might not even be in the best interest of the EU to finish a negotiation in those 2 years.
Leadsom said she did not like the gay marriage law. She would prefer to offer equality by letting heterosexual people have civil partnerships, she said.
right, that's what i read, but i don't understand in what world that's equality. unless what she meant was that she would have offered straight people civil partnerships and then removed the legal status of marriage.
Orniletter
Banned
Ah, so it's not clear cut at all. Thanks.
But it really does seem like an absolutely massive amount of work to re-/ negotiate these arrangements when the UK is better off where it is right now.
ferrasvansen
Member
Sounds like a nice person.... jeez god help us all if she wins, hopefully Labour can sort out a decent leader and stroll to a win in 2020, because Leadsom will be worse than Corbyn is for Labour to the Conservatives.
Fox hunting? smh
FDP Berlin trying to get that publicity
https://twitter.com/sjhmorris/status/750229059662143488/photo/1
ferrasvansen
Member
I think she means she doesn't believe in gay marriage. But accepts that they can have a civil partnership. But gay people being allowed a civil partnership and hetrosexual people not is unfair.
You have to remember this comes from the same lady that said she believes homosexuality is a thing but doesn't agree with it. This is why she ticked for and against in the gay marriage vote.
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