Any numbers to back this up or are you just making strawmen for fun?Lot of the younger generation seem to bemoan that they will lose the chance to work and live on the continent - yet relatively few Brits took that opportunity while they had it. Now that they have lost it though ... In a way it is a bit like backwards compatibility in consoles.
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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM
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accel
Member
Suppose this actually happens and as a result of GE (or whatever other political perturbation, really, it doesn't matter) the UK stays in the EU.
Will this solve anything? Be honest.
I don't think it will. What, will people be suddenly fine with immigrants with whom they aren't fine now (no matter how many of the reasons are true)? Will they be suddenly fine with regulations done in the name of some other EU members, with not being able to even in theory strike trade deals of their own, with being dependent on the EU in many areas where it appears to be slow and relatively inept? Will they be OK with the EU extending areas where they have control / influence and talking about things like the EU army? No, they won't.
I know that your answer is probably that the world is a complex thing and there are pros and cons that should be weighed. This is true. But many of these pros and cons you can't even weigh, because they are a moving target. Tomorrow the EU does another thing and the balance changes, can get better, can get worse, can't weigh that. And the over-arching problem is that people don't feel like they can influence that, they feel that they've been more in control when it was just the UK and all other countries were some distance away and didn't meddle. The EU has largely discredited itself or at least that's the perception, and that was mirrored in those 52% that the vote had. And I don't think it can get better with time, because the EU is... well, the EU. It rules from some ivory towers and it is slow.
So, all that would happen if the UK by some miracle stayed in the EU is that the issues that created the Leave vote would be swept under the rug for some time. In my opinion.
ferrasvansen
Member
Yeah immigration is much more needed here, the Scottish population is falling when you exclude migrants. Yeah and it's more the incompetent nature of Westminster government that concerns me, no plans for Brexit and such showing utter chaos down there. If Westminster had a more balanced nature about it, I wouldn't be so pro independence as I am now, but the constant pandering to middle England, and the Daily Mail and Express campaigns leading to the persecution of the poor and disabled finally took its toll on me. I'd rather Scottish political figures made all our choices now, not just the ones siphoned off to Holyrood.
accel
Member
Glorious plan. Hey, you can also bring more people from foreign countries. That would give Remain some votes, too.
Today's Remainer is tomorrow's Leaver, sadly
jimbobsmells
Member
I can't believe we are in a situation where I WANT Theresa May as prime minister.
This are fucking crazy times.
Oh sorry Theresa, I said fuck on the internet I know you're reading this and I can only apologise for that and my thought crimes.
This are fucking crazy times.
Oh sorry Theresa, I said fuck on the internet I know you're reading this and I can only apologise for that and my thought crimes.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Exactly. Scotland's influence over the UK is/was weaker than the UK's over the EU.
Psychotext
Member
Lot of the younger generation seem to bemoan that they will lose the chance to work and live on the continent - yet relatively few Brits took that opportunity while they had it. Now that they have lost it though ... In a way it is a bit like backwards compatibility in consoles.
I did it, as did my wife. Sure, not many people did, but it was great for a fair few of us.
Pankratous
Member
To be fair, he did only stop backing people when they were out of the race. He seems to be a curse though...
Audioboxer
Member
Lot of the younger generation seem to bemoan that they will lose the chance to work and live on the continent - yet relatively few Brits took that opportunity while they had it. Now that they have lost it though ... In a way it is a bit like backwards compatibility in consoles.
Sure. I can totally see your POV. Point I was making is that "Leave" campaign was very similar. Take back authority from Brussels. Don't let bureaucrats you didn't vote for make decisions on your behalf. etc.
Well the difference is we have a bit of faith in our Government up here to give an independent country to lol.
England votes to give the country back to London and London MP's step-down and it's chaos.
Plus the immigration bullshit has never been an issue for Scotland.
So really leave the UK campaign has been nowhere near as toxic as leave the EU.
JonnyDBrit
Member
Sounds like a Frenchman.
Unless the UK fully leaves (aka no EEA), most of those things won't change, the thing that changes is the UK loses it's significant saying on what happens and doesn't happen.
Looks like one
Survey by the German Chamber of Commerce: 35% of German companies with branches in the UK are planning to reduce capital spend; 26% are planning to reduce staff in the UK.
http://www.dihk.de/presse/meldungen/2016-07-07-blitzumfrage-brexit
http://www.dihk.de/presse/meldungen/2016-07-07-blitzumfrage-brexit
Oliver Letwin in charge of Brexit negotiations
So I'm not familiar with this guy but given that the comments, which are usually partisan mudslinging, are in complete agreement that he's a total nitwit I guess this is bad?
So I'm not familiar with this guy but given that the comments, which are usually partisan mudslinging, are in complete agreement that he's a total nitwit I guess this is bad?
There were an estimated 1.2 million UK-born people living in other EU countries in 2015.
https://fullfact.org/europe/how-many-uk-citizens-live-other-eu-countries/
Population breakdown figures are a little harder but population working age (15-65) figures from 2014 are 42 million. Now I said "younger generation". Say 18-40. We are going to have to estimate here but I think 20 million is fair, maybe a little on the low side.
http://www.indexmundi.com/united_kingdom/demographics_profile.html
So I think it a fair comment that only a minority of the younger generation (a maximum of 1.2m out of 20m) are currently taking advantage of the free movement of labour. Likely to be a lot less than 1.2m as we don't know how many of those can be considered young. 1.2m out of 42m are the only hard figures.
This is the true travesty. I mean it's someone who wants to remove our human rights and spy on our internet messages versus someone who thinks gay marriage is bad and wants to bring fox hunting back. Jesus Christ. Fuck this country.
Dash_Riprock
Member
I like the way Egaraf thinks!
If true, basically what I suspected. Tories are going to move far right to appeal to the UKIP demographic.
inoperativ
Member
For sure. Scotland is fucked inside a Theresa May/Leadsom UK as well though since we need immigration to keep the age demographics anywhere close to sustainable over the next 50 years. To be fair we contributed quite a bit to the UK budget over the last couple of decades thanks to the oil so in a sense it's our "turn" to depend on the rUK to pay back the favour, but with the way things are going I fully expect Scotland's deficit to become a political issue soon if we stay so that's unlikely to work out.
Independence would require massive austerity in the short term but there are also good reasons to believe it could work out quite well in the medium and longer term. Many of the young, highly mobile immigrants who have contributed much of the recent UK GDP growth by moving to London would be more likely to choose Scotland in a future where we are part of the EU and England is not. Similarly there is a decent chance to attract some of the investment that will look for alternatives to London in the future - Edinburgh and Glasgow will make up the single largest English-speaking conurbation in the EU if England leaves and is already very international with some very competitive universities and a highly educated workforce (Glasgow has a considerably higher proportion of degree-level educated inhabitants than Manchester or Birmingham and Edinburgh is even higher), good connectivity to the rest of Europe through two large international airports, and two decently sized finance districts. Glasgow's finance district and life sciences sector have been expanding rapidly over the last 15 years and Edinburgh is comfortably the second richest city in the UK after London so it's not like we would be starting from scratch.
There are also some short-term effects that would slightly soften the immediate blow e.g. tourism is already over 5% of GDP and could benefit from a weaker economy.
I voted no mainly because of economic reasons and the EU the last time, this time the EU is a no-brainer and the economic argument is a lot clearer (in that there's no point in shouting about oil any more). Since everything is up in the air regarding England I think it's better to choose a path which guarantees some pain in the short term but also offers interesting possibilities in the future than stay in a union which could end up being better but also could end up being completely shit, with effectively no say in the matter.
That comments section is a bucket of fun.
I don't doubt that part - in fact 1 in 20 is higher than I expected.
I doubt that more than 1 in 20 young people have complained about not being able to move to the EU.
AHA-Lambda
Member
This has to be Leadsom, right? Boris campaigning for May sounds weird.
Link to an article on shariah courts, winning the 52%.....oh dear.
Jezbollah
Member
Given that it's most likely from the Leadsom side (if it's not fake) then it should be no surprise. However I've read a while back that there has been some natural gravitation of UKIP membership back to the Conservatives as soon as the Leave vote was announced...
But any new Tory leader would be trying to park the bus in the UKIP demographic - for much the same reason Cameron put a referendum in the last election manifesto in the first place.
He's the guy who will forever be remembered as the idiot who dumped government documents in a park bin.
... And he comes from... Someplace... Not too far away! (Yes, that'll do)
Disgusting... but I'm confused about how a policy can "allegedly" be in place? Surely that isn't a secret? And surely surely policies such as those described couldn't exist? (referring to LGBT asylum seekers having to prove their sexuality. Why would their sexuality even be of interest??)
Unless Sturgeon can persuade Merkel to pump £15bn into Scotland each year, Scotland's going nowhere and the SNP know it.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon/12189037/Scotland-runs-up-15bn-deficit-twice-size-of-UKs.html
The EU was always a useful comfort blanket for the SNP, leave the uk but no chance of restrictions between Scotland and England, that's out the window now.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon/12189037/Scotland-runs-up-15bn-deficit-twice-size-of-UKs.html
The EU was always a useful comfort blanket for the SNP, leave the uk but no chance of restrictions between Scotland and England, that's out the window now.
Some people (mostly Brexiteers) having been saying that a low pound is good for the export market. Unfortunately while that might be the case for some exporters, in terms of the balance of payments there's no clear link, the pound peaked against the dollar at 1.70odd in 2014 and has been decreasing since then, the trade imbalance hasn't really reflected the pounds movement.
Chittagong
Gold Member
Had to take one for the team today
Even assuming those figures are correct, Merkel wasn't pumping £73.5bn into the UK each year either.
If you're still taking newspaper headlines at face value, you really have learned nothing from all this.
EDIT: My figure was from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_national_debt, for reference.
They are the scottish governments own figures, the U.K. Deficit is now below 4% (although will surely rise with brexit) while Scotland's was 9.7%, there is no way a small new country with no track record could borrow that sort of cash on the markets for long, it would lead to massive austerity
I work in an IT company and my bosses have had to look at increasing our prices as we use Dell servers. :/
The accuracy of the GERS figures are up for some debate, but that's not particularly relevant to the point you're raising except for the general scale.
The current scale of Scotland's notional 'National debt' as part of the UK is worthless because the finances of an independent Scotland would be arranged quite differently within a relatively few years. Not paying for nukes, investing in renewable energy, possibly setting up an oil fund (if the price ever goes up again). Those policy ideas could totally change under a non-SNP governement too. Being so small, and apparently so poor, an EU member might actual mean Scotland is a net beneficiary of EU membership, which would lighten the debt load somewhat.
The real number could be higher or lower but, an extreme fluke of mathematics aside, it isn't that number.
That's almost a side-issue though as the bolded part of your comment is speculation based on nothing. What examples do you have? Anything relevant or just some more wheeze comparing Scotland being run as a component part of the UK to the UK as a whole? What other nations have entered the world debt market in similar circumstances and what was the outcome?
Psychotext
Member
Fear of mistreatment / retribution in certain countries for homosexuals.
Harder to deport them if they can claim that they're vulnerable.
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