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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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Harmen

Member
If the implication is that people who know economics (and aren't so old that they are out of their mind) have to vote Remain, my response is "OK".

He didn't have to, but there is a reason nearly all financial instutions (IFS, NIESR, CEP) professors (University College of London for example), banks, and even many (large) companies themselves actively warned against a brexit. Rarely have I seen so many experts agree on policy matters.
 

Micael

Member
He didn't have to, but there is a reason nearly all financial instutions (IFS, NIESR, CEP) professors (University College of London for example), banks, and even many (large) companies themselves actively warned against a brexit. Rarely have I seen so many experts agree on policy matters.

Well we have also seen scientists agree a lot on global warming being a thing that exists and is negative, yet clearly as we all know it's just a fear campaign.
 

pigeon

Banned
If the implication is that people who know economics (and aren't so old that they are out of their mind) have to vote Remain, my response is "OK".

I mean, you are legally allowed to vote for people to suffer and everything to get worse, it's just sometimes questionable why you might want to.
 

StayDead

Member
Is there a thread discussing the conservative elections, because honestly I don't know how this country could get any worse.
 
What? No. You don't end up in the EEA as a stepping stone to what, further irrelevance. You end up in the EEA because you want the benefits of EU membership but can't convince the electorate.

Yep. This is actually more or less the situation that Switzerland was in in the early 1990s. Joining the EU wasn't in the cards because the electorate would have said 'Hell no!' to that (because we're similarly insular when it comes to international organizations; we didn't even bring ourselves to join the fricking United Nations until 2002(!)). So we at least tried to join the EEA, which was narrowly rejected in a referendum in 1992.

Cue more than five years of economic stagnation and arduous negotiations with the EU to hammer out those bilateral treaties, which went into effect in 1999 and finally got our economy running again. And that was, mind you, during the relatively 'happy' 1990s, when the EU hadn't yet stumbled through several crises in a row and was thus generally far more open to negotiate special deals with non-EU states. I wouldn't expect that kind of courtesy anymore in 2016.
 
China's first demand would be a British isle to a establish a Chinese trading mission in. We can call it new Hong Kong.
Well, it worked out for the then almost unihabited island of Hong Kong :p

If you are in EFTA (commonly paired with EEA, because EEA agreement is between EU and non-EU members of EFTA), you negotiate FTAs with other countries through that, but you have your own trading policy. Norway, for example, has a preferential tariff agreement with the US, a good deal on fish trade (important to Norway) with China, etc.
Thankies :3
 
With each passing day, I have more difficulty in separating the mentality of leave voters from the 'just fuck my shit up, fam' hairdresser meme.
 

Pandy

Member
Of course she can. There's nothing to prevent the SNP running candidates in England.

What do they need to run candidates for? They've got nukes.

I should probably edit a little ;) winky face in there just in case anyone thinks I'm being serious. This thread has gone beyond parody at times.
 

Micael

Member
Hmm what about this report that Scotland would be worse off out of the U.K.?

http://qz.com/717895/scotland-is-better-off-in-the-uk-than-on-its-own-in-the-eu/

Considering the UK are going to stay in EEA, and that Scotland would have to wait for UK to leave the EU, leave the UK, and only then be able to join, and ofc how long that joining process could potentially take, all this when Scotland economy is geared towards being in the UK, just like UK economy is geared towards being in the EU, it is likely a pretty true statement that Scotland is better of inside an EEA UK, than it is outside it, at least for a few decades.
 

Joni

Member
Just realized one advantage, the endless job offers I got for london has dried up. No more spam.
No I wont dump my job for a six month freelance job.
 

Kathian

Banned
Oh god, my local MP was just on BBC news supporting Leadsom.

Oh people know she's going to win right? Conservatives haven't gone to their membership in a decade. Their going to be hit like Labour by political disconnection but the opposite - their low membership figures will mostly be aged and right VS a middle aged and central electorate who vote for them.
 
Oh people know she's going to win right? Conservatives haven't gone to their membership in a decade. Their going to be hit like Labour by political disconnection but the opposite - their low membership figures will mostly be aged and right VS a middle aged and central electorate who vote for them.


If Leadsom wins the Tories will fall apart, there are too many moderate conservatives in the Parliamentary party to put up with her politics of fantasy land and whatever god tells her to do. With her and Corbyn in charge we could see the destruction of the two major parties in the UK, happen very quickly indeed.
 

*Splinter

Member
Hmm what about this report that Scotland would be worse off out of the U.K.?

http://qz.com/717895/scotland-is-better-off-in-the-uk-than-on-its-own-in-the-eu/
Interesting. I assumed that Scottish independence would lead to some short term uncertainty - even more so than the UK would face leaving the EU - but this seems to be suggesting the long term prospects are worse as well. Interested in hearing anyone else's thoughts on this. Most of our Scottish posters seem to favour independence, does this change any of your minds at all or do you disagree with the analysis, or is this simply case where the economics of the situation are not your primary concern?
Never seen this video before, but it's fantastic, thank you.
 

Audioboxer

Member
Interesting. I assumed that Scottish independence would lead to some short term uncertainty - even more so than the UK would face leaving the EU - but this seems to be suggesting the long term prospects are worse as well. Interested in hearing anyone else's thoughts on this. Most of our Scottish posters seem to favour independence, does this change any of your minds at all or do you disagree with the analysis, or is this simply case where the economics of the situation are not your primary concern?

Never seen this video before, but it's fantastic, thank you.

I feel it's about time we stop letting loonies down South run this country and I fear what fucking mess we'll be in in say 20 years time. That is if we don't do a runner.
 
Interesting. I assumed that Scottish independence would lead to some short term uncertainty - even more so than the UK would face leaving the EU - but this seems to be suggesting the long term prospects are worse as well. Interested in hearing anyone else's thoughts on this. Most of our Scottish posters seem to favour independence, does this change any of your minds at all or do you disagree with the analysis, or is this simply case where the economics of the situation are not your primary concern?

Never seen this video before, but it's fantastic, thank you.


With Leadsom in charge, the UK economy will be obliterated, her rush to activate article 50 will invalidate that whole article and we would be in trouble. I would rather we sort our own economy out in time without others dictating, if we need to balance the books I'm sure in time we will. Such things as ending Trident will reduce costs a lot.
 

popo

Member
Scottish Politician : "Vote for us the leave the evil union. Take back our sovereignty and we will flourish on our own. Ignore those economists pointing to the facts and figures and pay no attention to people from the EU saying we would have to apply again. They are project FEAR!".


Leave Politician: "Vote for us the leave the evil union. Take back our sovereignty and we will flourish on our own. Ignore those economists pointing to the facts and figures and pay no attention to people from the EU saying we would have to leave the common market. They are project FEAR!"

:D

I feel it's about time we stop letting loonies down South run this country and I fear what fucking mess we'll be in in say 20 years time. That is if we don't do a runner.

I mean if you have to have liars in charge, I suppose you might as well have Scottish liars.
 
Scottish Politician : "Vote for us the leave the evil union. Take back our sovereignty and we will flourish on our own. Ignore those economists pointing to the facts and figures and pay no attention to people from the EU saying we would have to apply again. They are project FEAR!".


Leave Politician: "Vote for us the leave the evil union. Take back our sovereignty and we will flourish on our own. Ignore those economists pointing to the facts and figures and pay no attention to people from the EU saying we would have to leave the common market. They are project FEAR!"

:D

Strange thing is there were many economists on the independence side of the argument, not so much on the leave side. Being a no voter I studied both economic arguments and decided both were utter shite, doubt that has changed.
 
If Leadsom wins the Tories will fall apart, there are too many moderate conservatives in the Parliamentary party to put up with her politics of fantasy land and whatever god tells her to do. With her and Corbyn in charge we could see the destruction of the two major parties in the UK, happen very quickly indeed.

Would that necessarily be a bad thing, get a nice vote of no confidence in as it all falls apart, force a GE and then through some mass level of prayer, fingers crossing, and sacrificing to whatever powers that be the Lib Dems get in power and stop this whole EU leaving farce dead in its tracks?

It could happen right?

Right......

;_; ...
 

Lagamorph

Member
Would that necessarily be a bad thing, get a nice vote of no confidence in as it all falls apart, force a GE and then through some mass level of prayer, fingers crossing, and sacrificing to whatever powers that be the Lib Dems get in power and stop this whole EU leaving farce dead in its tracks?

It could happen right?

Right......

;_; ...
Very unlikely, but expect the Lib Dems to make a big comeback in the next GE. They've come out of this mess relatively unscathed.
 
Would that necessarily be a bad thing, get a nice vote of no confidence in as it all falls apart, force a GE and then through some mass level of prayer, fingers crossing, and sacrificing to whatever powers that be the Lib Dems get in power and stop this whole EU leaving farce dead in its tracks?

It could happen right?

Right......

;_; ...


It could, nobody thought Britain would vote to leave, or that Trump would be close to being US president. Most of the UK electorate is either slight left wing, slightly right wing or centre. A potential centre left party could clean up if the other two were led by numpties.
 
It's just unfortunate that FPTP causes such a level of dickery at the GE.

My local area is sadly Conservative friendly (also a big leave area -_-), with the same fuckclump of a conservative MP having been my MP for ages. Quality bloke he is, anti europe, anti gay marriage, pro tax reductions for the rich... *sarcastic thumbs up*.

I'll still vote for Lib Dem given the chance, but my vote will be essentially useless I imagine :(
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
An independent Scotland would almost certainly be worse off. Scotland is even more economically interdependent with the UK than the UK is with the EU; if Scotland decided to join the EU post-independence it'd be even worse because they'd be trading with the UK at EU rates (which will be shite) instead of being able to negotiate their own.

I don't think the argument re: Scottish independence is having a stronger economy, it's more like "we never, ever get our own way, ever; and you lot make really shite decisions". The UK exerts a lot of influence in the EU; I'd say relatively more than Scotland exerts within the UK. I mean, put another way, the UK is/was 12.5% of the population of the EU; Scotland is 8% of the UK.
 

Jezbollah

Member
An independent Scotland would almost certainly be worse off. Scotland is even more economically interdependent with the UK than the UK is with the EU; if Scotland decided to join the EU post-independence it'd be even worse because they'd be trading with the UK at EU rates (which will be shite) instead of being able to negotiate their own.

I don't think the argument re: Scottish independence is having a stronger economy, it's more like "we never, ever get our own way, ever; and you lot make really shite decisions". The UK exerts a lot of influence in the EU; I'd say relatively more than Scotland exerts within the UK. I mean, put another way, the UK is/was 12.5% of the population of the EU; Scotland is 8% of the UK.

Do you think that Scotland wouldn't get a veto (from the likes of Spain) to join the EU?
 

Audioboxer

Member
Scottish Politician : "Vote for us the leave the evil union. Take back our sovereignty and we will flourish on our own. Ignore those economists pointing to the facts and figures and pay no attention to people from the EU saying we would have to apply again. They are project FEAR!".


Leave Politician: "Vote for us the leave the evil union. Take back our sovereignty and we will flourish on our own. Ignore those economists pointing to the facts and figures and pay no attention to people from the EU saying we would have to leave the common market. They are project FEAR!"

:D



I mean if you have to have liars in charge, I suppose you might as well have Scottish liars.

Sure, then we can actually pick who we want to run this country in full. Not constantly be forced to put up with a Tory party.

Or as this vote ended be forced to go with something a whole country voted against.

Face it Scotland thinks differently from what the majority keeps winning in England and it's about time we just separate and get things the way we vote for up here. The EU was the last straw.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Do you think that Scotland wouldn't get a veto (from the likes of Spain) to join the EU?

Depends. I'm talking 4-5 years down the line, maybe a decade. If U-Podemos win or form a coalition, Catalunya might be independent by then anyway and Spain will have no fucks left to give.
 

popo

Member
Strange thing is there were many economists on the independence side of the argument, not so much on the leave side. Being a no voter I studied both economic arguments and decided both were utter shite, doubt that has changed.

The economists disagreed about the market chaos but all those not being paid to contribute to the white paper laughed at it.

It would almost be worth another indyref campaign just to see how they spin the figures without projected oil revenues this time.

I am sure Scotland would have made it work in the end but if the markets had run scared in the short term, then I wonder if GAF would have been as optimistic then as it is negative now.
 

popo

Member
Lot of the younger generation seem to bemoan that they will lose the chance to work and live on the continent - yet relatively few Brits took that opportunity while they had it. Now that they have lost it though ... In a way it is a bit like backwards compatibility in consoles. :D

Sure, then we can actually pick who we want to run this country in full. Not constantly be forced to put up with a Tory party.

Or as this vote ended be forced to go with something a whole country voted against.

Face it Scotland thinks differently from what the majority keeps winning in England and it's about time we just separate and get things the way we vote for up here. The EU was the last straw.

Sure. I can totally see your POV. Point I was making is that "Leave" campaign was very similar. Take back authority from Brussels. Don't let bureaucrats you didn't vote for make decisions on your behalf. etc.
 

Walshicus

Member
Watching BBC news at the mother in law's house and the dogs started barking like mad when a graphic showing Gove, Pearson and May appeared.

Smart dogs.
 

*Splinter

Member
Sure. I can totally see your POV. Point I was making is that "Leave" campaign was very similar. Take back authority from Brussels. Don't let bureaucrats you didn't vote for make decisions on your behalf. etc.
Also, and not insignificantly, "immigrants".

I'd argue that's the biggest difference between Scotland and UK leave campaigns.
(Plus calling the UK government incompetent is rather more justified than calling the EU "unelected".



Thanks Audio/ferrar/Crab for the responses, that aligns with what I was thinking.
 

kmag

Member
An independent Scotland would almost certainly be worse off. Scotland is even more economically interdependent with the UK than the UK is with the EU; if Scotland decided to join the EU post-independence it'd be even worse because they'd be trading with the UK at EU rates (which will be shite) instead of being able to negotiate their own.

I don't think the argument re: Scottish independence is having a stronger economy, it's more like "we never, ever get our own way, ever; and you lot make really shite decisions". The UK exerts a lot of influence in the EU; I'd say relatively more than Scotland exerts within the UK. I mean, put another way, the UK is/was 12.5% of the population of the EU; Scotland is 8% of the UK.

The EU literally can't take a decision the UK doesn't want due to the veto. The ECJ is a bit more problematic, but ultimately a lot of that is down to the UK not being smart enough to veto laws it later doesn't like. Scotland has no such veto.
 
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