War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
I would disregard any polling about Owen Smith, he is a nobody. For better or worse.
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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM
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Huw_Dawson
Member
The second referendum polling is telling. People seem to prefer the notion of deciding this at a General Election. But half of people (presumably Leavers) want no ballot at all.
It's really a shame that most of the representative functions of the UK are covered by the royal family. If Boris didn't run off his mouth so often, he might have been a decent British president.
PJV3
Member
I'm not expecting many people to be keen on a replay yet, it's just to soon and nothing has happened at all. A deal could be reached due to Scotland that makes everyone happy to a degree.
A bit silly for Smith to raise it at this point, Tories are for out, Libdems are for in, Labour should just concentrate on being in the real world for now.
iceatcs
Junior Member
EU-Canada still many many years to go. Lot of countries to deal with, some still rejected. There is no process for years so far.
PJV3
Member
Are you sure? I remember an EU press release from a week ago saying the EU was now able to provisionally apply the treaty after getting the votes needed.
I'd say the 39% 'Don't Know' are the people that know who Owen Smith is.ComRes poll
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...esa-may-general-election-voters-a7140721.html
How do 34% of people know who Owen Smith is?
The 34% are just those buying the established narrative of 'anyone but Corbyn', as if that would magically solve Labour's problems.
The Scotland thing intrigues me, another way to stall / never active A50. Scotland are essentially being given an unofficial veto.
I am hearing rumours of Merkel trying to make deals from within the EU to make sweeping changes and then ask us to vote again post reforms. They know we won't be the first to go if it does happen.
(These rumours are literally that, I am not connected to be clear).
PJV3
Member
Hammond himself mentioned the EU being very close to changing and us leaving being stupid, because we drive that agenda. Sarkozy is also talking about pushing that agenda if elected, so the big 3 would on the Same side.
ClosingADoor
Member
The agreement is pretty much done. Being hand over to the countries for signing. Some want to vote on it still and we need to wait how that goes. Will take some time, but certainly the largest part is done.
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-16-2371_en.htm
London too pls
Oh well, there goes the last sane UK politician I guess.
She has to play the 'exploring all possibilities' card until it is taken from her.
Captain Chaos
Member
What do we want from Australia or New Zealand ..... Lamb?
It will be interesting to see the detail of these proposed free trade deals and how much they are actually worth
nekkid
It doesn't matter who we are, what matters is our plan.
So the rest of the UK could get free trade with the EU by going via Scotland? Seems like a boon for Scotland - especially any shipping merchants.
Seems implausible in reality, though.
More interested in the wine personally 😀
PJV3
Member
nekkid
It doesn't matter who we are, what matters is our plan.
Automotive components. Especially in the Motorsport industry.
nekkid
It doesn't matter who we are, what matters is our plan.
Wouldn't that require border control between Scotland and UK? If they were in the EU and UK, then there'd be free movement and free trade between both. People could gain access to the UK via Scotland, the same goes for goods.
Wild, deadly animals, you guys can go all out without those limiting EU regulations.
PJV3
Member
Likely would be more a licencing deal.
- EU citizens free to move in Scotland and cross into England but do not have right to live, work or take benefits in England. UK border force would be able to manage this and it's not like EU citizens will be blocked from arriving in rUK anyway. Scottish and rUK citizens can move freely and work freely within the UK.
- EU goods would be tariff free in Scotland but not in rUK.
- Scottish Manufacturers and Service companies would apply for Licence to export tariff free into the EU. Smaller companies could easily get this automatically whilst larger companies would simply gain licence dependent that goods or services are based in Scotland and not UK.
- Scottish law has been distinct forever and Scotland is already legally obliged to follow EU regulations and laws.
It's really not impossible and there are many many different scenarios. Likely Scotland could not be an EU member; the UK would have associate membership. Likes of Mundell are being flippant out of hand - they don't like it as they fear it strengthens independence.
Now the big caveat above will be the UKs deal with the EU. Scotland and rUK would share a border but potentially Scottish firms will have to declare UK revenues and vice versa and pay tariffs on that.
Honestly the big question will be movement of capital but I don't see anyone in Europe not agreeing that as the first step in the rUK tariff deal. Additional to this Scotland I feel would need to become more independent - with FFA and it's own currency in a few years.
Scotland would then;
- Contribute to the UK budget with a common defence; security and foreign policy.
- Contribute to the EU budget with a common trade;regulator and area.
Now it will not be this clear cut and Scotland's arrangement will not be her own will but be based on the agreement the rUK gets (I.e. any change in that relationship could change Scotland's relationship with the EU). So whether Scotland can do all this without sovereignty is a big big question.
Overall Sturgeon has played this well. Shes seen in a positive light in Europe and has made sure Scotland is part of the discussions whilst seeking to work on a solution with rUK.
nekkid
It doesn't matter who we are, what matters is our plan.
Just as an example, Tesco have a portion of an aisle where they sell goods from the US. Tesco (or some other merchant) has paid the tax on those imported goods, and is free to sell them to someone else (i.e. me) without me being liable to any additional duties.
What's to stop merchants buying from the EU with zero duties, at which point it is the property of said merchant in Scotland (but more importantly, the property of merchant in the UK), then selling to someone in England? You might just end up with a bunch of warehouses popping up in Scotland owned by independent merchants and bigger retailers (where those don't already exist).
Edit: just read that back - hope it doesn't come across as patronising. I'm genuinely curious as to how in that scenario there could be any legal prevention of free transfer of goods from the EU to England (and vice versa, of course).
PJV3
Member
OK I get you now, yeah the other direction is trickier, A lot more work for HMRC for a start.
sensed this was going to happen, I expect them to say anyone pre referendum can stay but all others now have to leave/apply for visa
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/brexit-minister-eu-migrants-may-leave-uk-093206256--finance.html
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/brexit-minister-eu-migrants-may-leave-uk-093206256--finance.html
lol. No way pre-referendum is the date. Legally that means nothing, we're still a member of the EU today.
PJV3
Member
They need to be clear on this though. Is it pre vote or pre article 50. Just make a commitment.
Ah David "well the EU is just going to have to bend over and take it" Davis. Negotiations should go well.
PJV3
Member
Jesus, my opinion of him fell through the floor the last few days, he's just been mouthing off for years, he hasn't got a Scooby's.
He's just playing into the EU's hands with this. They will eat him alive if he really tries to push that with them via negotiators in the Talks post Article 50. They already shut down Switzerland when they tried to push that and that's been two years since they had a referendum on that.
Davis said he believes Britain will be able to retain access to the single market while opting out of the EU's right to free movement. EU leaders say that's impossible, that the free movement of people is a key right, but Davis said "everybody is taking starting positions."
How long do you think we'll be in this ridiculous stalemate before the Brexit team admits publicly the four freedoms are non-negotiatble, and not a starting position? 2 years? 3?
I like how some Leavers here are so quick to point out that the EU accounts not for a majority of trade, but merely 46%. And then get excited about some Australian trade deal when that's not even 2% of trade.
Sorta like reverse Greenland deal? But Greenland is autonomous and an island so there are no border problems. Seems rather unlikely.
PJV3
Member
Won't we have similar problems anyway with the common travel area and the Irish Republic.
Davis is one those Ken Clarke referred to as genuine loonies who believe we will be economically better off outside of the single market.
The sheer calibre of the people entering into these talks with the EU are laughably poor. Even twats like Djisselboem will run rings around them. Not that it matters, the leverage the EU has here is immense.
The sheer calibre of the people entering into these talks with the EU are laughably poor. Even twats like Djisselboem will run rings around them. Not that it matters, the leverage the EU has here is immense.
I voted remain so that's fucked up your assumptions hasn't it. I'm just not sitting here hoping the country burns.
There's no need to hope for it. Best case scenario now is we keep access, passport and become EU bitch boy. Which is the likely scenario.
Worst case is slow and steady regression, which would be well deserved for voting out of xenophobia, prejudice and unabashed ignorance.
PJV3
Member
Yeah, he's achieved nothing of note except winning a by-election where labour and the Libdems didn't stand. He gets credit for standing against civil liberty abuses* but I don't see the relevance for the job ahead.
* He didn't vote to repeal section 28 so it obviously only matters when it suits him.
nekkid
It doesn't matter who we are, what matters is our plan.
"My bookies got turned into a Polish supermarket".
The relevance comes from his ardent eurosceptiscm. A principled moron. It's a politically astute calculation from May. So none of the mentals can come back saying he didn't fight for them, he wasn't a true leaver etc. after the EU hands him his ass.
Yeah, reverse Greenland for Scotland, NI and Gibraltar at least seems like the best solution. Not sure how feasible it would be to include London in that.
The problem is that Davis is so freaking insane, he would actually leave Europe completely and not have access to the single market if needs be. It's utterly insane, but he also thinks we can have a dozen trade agreements ready to go for when we leave.
Either May will have to go along with his plan and we leave Europe *hard*, or she'll end up kicking him out of cabinet at some point.
PJV3
Member
You would hope, but as it's been said, Davis would probably prefer to change the common travel area and risk restarting the troubles than compromise on the sovereignty nonsense.
I think she is betting on him having a come to Jesus moment when the EU doesn't budge, the lobbying kicks up several notches and the reality of the legal situation sinks in.
inoperativ
Member
Would be nice to include London but I suspect it would be considerably harder for both political (would be a bit strange to have the English seat of power in the EU but the rest of the country outside) and practical (unlike Scotland and NI, London does not have a separate legal system nor a devolved parliament) reasons.
PJV3
Member
English parliament based in the Midlands which should have happened years ago and might have channelled frustration into something positive by now.
It wouldn't be that hard to set up.
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