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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM
- Thread starter Hasney
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He hasn't offended anyone yet, it's a tiny miracle.
Halph n Halph
Member
Of course we could. According to the mighty Uganda we are irrelevant
Theonik
Member
As of right now this point of her intentions remains unclear. Tory majority is paper thin so she can't risk a fracture at this point. Overtly ignoring the plebiscite would be ill advised. The other problem is she needs some Brexit mps in her cabinet regardless of her ultimate intent to at least maintain appearances and unite her party.
Regardless of outcome, this move is necessary in implementing or not the result the risk being a view that she sabotaged Brexit if she didn't which I assume hardcore Brexit voters will do in any outcome.
But it is!
Fernando Fernandez
Member
He's on the way to Devon as we speak.
shinra-bansho
Member
The Pound Sterling has given back most of its post-May gains. Presumably as people realise that, even though rates aren't going to be cut right now, they will be.
The divergence in the markets is more telling than the actual levels they're holding at.
Basically if your earnings are mainly in dollars and/or from overseas, you're having a great time.
The divergence in the markets is more telling than the actual levels they're holding at.
Basically if your earnings are mainly in dollars and/or from overseas, you're having a great time.
Went below 1.3 to the dollar, interest rates were expected to be cut, but they weren't so it started rising again.
Likely to drop again if interest rates are cur next month as predicted.
Bioshocker
Member
I'd actually drink champagne now AND when the UK leave.
Of course it's going to be a bumpy road at first. The negotiations will take years. But Theresa May seems determined to make this work, although it seems the leaders in the EU don't want the UK to be an example of how well things can work even without the political union. But really, if you don't want a European superstate, what's the alternative to leaving? EU is beyond reform.
GamerMax73
Member
This should have been posted through letterboxes by the remain camp before the vote.
Everyone should read, perfectly sums up the contents of the two Brexit threads here.
The more I think on it the more I come to the conclusion that a fudged Brexit, we're out but not really, is the most likely outcome. Pretty much EEA with our government back peddling on the whole freedom of movement thing.
The other interesting option remains the reverse Greenland discussed earlier. Don't think its as likely as kowtowing to EEA, but a federalisation deal for Scotland/London/Gibraltar might be enough to save the Capital and the union while still allowing a full Brexit and WTO rules for the rest of the UK. Just means we'll funnel even more of our economy through London than we do now.
Oh, the Chinese curse - May we live in interesting times.
Also, this CGP Grey vid posted earlier is great: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3_I2rfApYk
Psychotext
Member
chromatic9
Member
The Pound Sterling has given back most of its post-May gains. Presumably as people realise that, even though rates aren't going to be cut right now, they will be.
The divergence in the markets is more telling than the actual levels they're holding at.
Basically if your earnings are mainly in dollars and/or from overseas, you're having a great time.
Well any kind of brexit or general stock market worries always have people flocking to mining, energy, gold.
Also, ITV, Tesco, Morrisons, SSE are UK based and have held well
Things like Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey have inflated share price rises in 2015 which naturally has some selling off. They're back to 2015 levels.
Persimmon chart
Dixons is a fast evolving tech store story that could flip flop at any time without brexit. Would not touch with a ten foot barge pole. This sector has been dropping like flies for the last ten years.
Lloyds is on life support before any notion of brexit and has been lower many times. Some think it should've closed a while back, like some other banks around the world, which are still in trouble like deutsche bank
Should note I'm for remain but there's a lot of selective finger pointing, trying to ram home the point to leavers after a few weeks of the vote. No shit has hit the fan yet.
Well any kind of brexit or general stock market worries always have people flocking to mining, energy, gold.
Also, ITV, Tesco, Morrisons, SSE are UK based and have held well
Things like Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey have inflated share price rises in 2015 which naturally has some selling off. They're back to 2015 levels.
Dixons is a fast evolving tech store story that could flip flop at any time without brexit. Would not touch with a ten foot barge pole. This sector has been dropping like flies for the last ten years.
Lloyds is on life support before any notion of brexit and has been lower many times. Some think it should've closed a while back, like some other banks around the world, which are still in trouble like deutsche bank
ITV is fucked. It relies on ads and that discretionary spend in the UK is in the toilet at least in the near term.
Tesco and Morrisons along with the other food retailers are going to get a positive run up because food inflation via the FX shock allows them to increase prices via stealth and expand margins.
SSE up for a similar reason, they can hide price increases within normal wholesale cost increases.
Lloyds can't go bankrupt unless you want to tank the economy.
anonymous_abc
Member
|OT3| Night of the Long Grass
PJV3
Member
I still think he won't last long, not due to a fuck up, he's just notorious for hating the amount of work involved.
He looks so old. Really exhausted.
They were, this is just an easy thing to blame. They were operating on razor thin margins and had quite rapid growth on that.
Yep, I've actually done well out of brexit so far. I had thousands in National Grid shares and they went from about £9.30 to £11.47. So i sold them and now I'm just waiting to see what happens in the housing market.
I'd still rather we stayed in though, as I don't particularly want to see my country completely fuck itself economically and become completely irrelevant. But that's what happens when you ask the people, I guess.
Did everybody catch Boris' speech at the French embassy?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wl_66QFXIAw
Actually hilarious.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wl_66QFXIAw
Actually hilarious.
etroit indeed
Frankfurter
Member
I'd actually drink champagne now AND when the UK leave.
Of course it's going to be a bumpy road at first. The negotiations will take years. But Theresa May seems determined to make this work, although it seems the leaders in the EU don't want the UK to be an example of how well things can work even without the political union. But really, if you don't want a European superstate, what's the alternative to leaving? EU is beyond reform.
Maybe stay until that supposed European superstate actually starts to happen? I realize that the UK is deeply entrenched, because it lost it's own currency and has adopted the Euro, is part of the Schengen system and... oh wait...
Don't worry, we have a mother in charge now. She will look after our coastlines for us. She has children.
Europe wants to make it work, but it won't give the UK more than it gave other countries. Why should UK get a better EEA deal than Norway? Get a better non-EEA deal than the USA? ... As for the European superstate, if only the UK had negotiated an out for all those things it didn't want. Oh wait, it did have that.
Dorsal Axe
Member
Secretary for Mother Earth
"No-one told us there would be faeces in the water. The children were startled!"
Of course it is.... One day. It just depends on the terms of that deal, like the article says
The Aussies and other places like Canada were always going to want a deal. How that transpires and when its finalised are the key parts.
Iunderstoodthatreference.gif
Also, Australia (+New Zealand) and Canada make up a piddling fraction of our trade, but we make up a significant portion of theirs. Of course they want a deal.
It will still take a decade to set up.
ClosingADoor
Member
The EU-Canada deal will be in place before the UK can make one with Canada probably.
Not to mention we still need to take time ourselves to highlight downsides and upsides.
How is this news.
How can May lie to people and say that this is a good sign.
This would've happened anyway.
This isn't a win, it's business as usual.
BibiMaghoo
Member
Those who announce their intentions for a deal now, before Brexit, are essentially at the front of the queue. The backroom deals start long before we will hear anything about it.
UcchedavÄda
Member
If this page is correct (2014 numbers), then Australia accounts for ~1.2% of your exports, and ~0.5% of your imports. I'm not sure it would actually be in your best interest to spend your resources (people) negotiating this deal any time soon, considering that you also need to negotiate deals with much bigger trading partners.
EDIT: Conversely, the UK accounts for ~1.3% of Australia's exports and ~2.6% of their imports.
I suggest people have a read at TPP before talking about a free trade deal with Australia. Essentially TPP once ratified will, a bit like the EU, stop Australia or any other TPP country from offering preferential tariffs to any 3rd country outside of TPP (preferential in this regard means better or equal to TPP)
They are allowed to cut preferential export deals though, but any import deal has to be worse than what TPP offers meaning that the UK will always be a competitive disadvantage (you know ignoring the distances etc) compared to internal TPP competitors.
I think if TPP is to go through, it'll go through before the UK could sign any deal with Australia.
They are allowed to cut preferential export deals though, but any import deal has to be worse than what TPP offers meaning that the UK will always be a competitive disadvantage (you know ignoring the distances etc) compared to internal TPP competitors.
I think if TPP is to go through, it'll go through before the UK could sign any deal with Australia.
ComRes poll
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...esa-may-general-election-voters-a7140721.html
How do 34% of people know who Owen Smith is?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...esa-may-general-election-voters-a7140721.html
How do 34% of people know who Owen Smith is?
PJV3
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