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[inoperativ]

English parliament based in the Midlands which should have happened years ago and might have channelled frustration into something positive by now.

It wouldn't be that hard to set up.

Yeah I agree it should have happened, the aftermath of the 2014 indy ref would have been the perfect time to effectively federalise the country and introduce changes like this. I'm not convinced there's any real chance of it happening any more.

 

[Azih]

Isn't free movement of labour the only way of keeping peace in Scotland, Ireland, and Gibraltar? And doesn't the EU know that if random Gaffers do?

 

[SteveWD40]

English parliament based in the Midlands which should have happened years ago and might have channelled frustration into something positive by now.

It wouldn't be that hard to set up.

My boss knows some (former) cabinet ministers and this was often discussed I am told. Manchester was actually the preferred location for a non London parliament it seems.

 

[kmag]

I think she is betting on him having a come to Jesus moment when the EU doesn't budge, the lobbying kicks up several notches and the reality of the legal situation sinks in.

He's an ideologue. Ideologues rarely see sense.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

My boss knows some (former) cabinet ministers and this was often discussed I am told. Manchester was actually the preferred location for a non London parliament it seems.

It'd be somewhere with a big airport, for sure. Manchester would make sense.

 

[CyclopsRock]

I like how some Leavers here are so quick to point out that the EU accounts not for a majority of trade, but merely 46%. And then get excited about some Australian trade deal when that's not even 2% of trade.

I'm not saying this will make up the difference at all, but we are obviously comparing apples and oranges here. We already have a "trade deal" with the rest of the EU and we don't with Australia. If the two were flipped, you'd expect to see the numbers shift in some way accordingly. The fact that our trade is low with countries with whom we don't have free trade deals is basically obvious, no?

 

[NekoFever]

My boss knows some (former) cabinet ministers and this was often discussed I am told. Manchester was actually the preferred location for a non London parliament it seems.

Should be in the north IMO. Tilt the balance away from London and the southeast.

 

[RedSparrows]

My fear with the fallout from Brexit is to do with the scale and pace of political change vs everyday experience. Politics is usually slow, really, when it comes to major changes. So we'll have years and years of EU-leaving talk, Article 50, new deals etc etc. There'll always be enough room for millions of people in Britain to rationalise problems away, blame on newer, localised causes, etc. And the narrative will be: we won freedom! We did it!

And then, when/if things begin to improve, it will be vindication, vindication for the entire process, even as said process was justified by lies, misunderstanding and a general lack of sensible contextual and theoretical understanding on the part of, and I'll happily say this, the majority who voted for it, and even if said process only actually brings us back to where we were at the start of it all, with other rules in place of the ones that were apparently a dire affront of historical proportions to all freeborn Englishmen.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I'm not saying this will make up the difference at all, but we are obviously comparing apples and oranges here. We already have a "trade deal" with the rest of the EU and we don't with Australia. If the two were flipped, you'd expect to see the numbers shift in some way accordingly. The fact that our trade is low with countries with whom we don't have free trade deals is basically obvious, no?

With respect, there is absolutely no chance at all that even with a complete single market with Australia it would account for more than 2% of our trade, tops.

 

[CyclopsRock]

With respect, there is absolutely no chance at all that even with a complete single market with Australia it would account for more than 2% of our trade, tops.

Fair enough, it's the other side of the world. And obviously the geographical proximity if Europe cannot be replicated elsewhere. But it still seems a bit weird to compare our EU trade percentage and non-trade agreement countries as if the numbers are somehow static.

 

[2700]

In the mayhem of Brexit the implications it will cause for TTIP have largely been ignored. Considering that the agreement was already on life support, the withdrawal of the USA's largest export market in Europe may be the final nail in the coffin. Along with Hilary Clinton's disapproval of TPP, I find it difficult to see Obama's desired legacy of a free trade area covering half the world's output being realised.

If TTIP is killed then Britain could be presented with an opportunity to quickly wrap up a trade deal with the USA by salvaging most of the agreed points from TTIP.

 

[killer_clank]

With respect, there is absolutely no chance at all that even with a complete single market with Australia it would account for more than 2% of our trade, tops.

This is why the brexiters are so intellectually woeful - they're obsessed with their delusion of neo-colonial commonwealth trade forgetting that they're at the other side of the world and it makes far more sense to trade with the much bigger rich states right on our doorstep.

 

[JonnyDBrit]

This is why the brexiters are so intellectually woeful - they're obsessed with their delusion of neo-colonial commonwealth trade forgetting that they're at the other side of the world and it makes far more sense to trade with the much bigger rich states right on our doorstep.

Not to mention that their own economic situations have generally changed quite a bit since the days where they A) Had existing deals with us as part of the Empire and/or Commonwealth and B) Were often still working to get off the ground after going independent with the lingering effects of colonialism on their infrastructure (or the lack thereof). We are not as vital to our former colonies as we once were.

 

[Micael]

This is why the brexiters are so intellectually woeful - they're obsessed with their delusion of neo-colonial commonwealth trade forgetting that they're at the other side of the world and it makes far more sense to trade with the much bigger rich states right on our doorstep.

Well in this specific case should be pointed out that there aren't all that many countries inside the EU that are richer than Australia, not that it matters since a deal with the EU isn't a deal with a specific country but with all the countries combined which even ignoring the distance makes it at the very least one of the top 2 most important deals you could have.

 

[nature boy]

Theresa May suggests Brexit delay as she says no Article 50 until Scotland gives go-ahead

...
Speaking in Edinburgh, Mrs May said: “I have already said that I won’t be triggering Article 50 until I think that we have a U.K. approach and objectives for negotiations. I think it is important that we establish that before we trigger Article 50.”

Ms Sturgeon has promised to explore every option to keep Scotland in the EU, and has repeatedly warned that if that is not possible as part of the UK, it is “highly likely” to lead to a second independence vote.

The Prime Minister said: "As far as I'm concerned the Scottish people had their vote, they voted in 2014, and a very clear message came through, both the United Kingdom and the Scottish Government said they would abide by that.”

Speaking before the meeting, only the third between the pair, she said her visit to Scotland demonstrated her commitment to "preserving this special union that has endured for centuries”.

Ms Sturgeon said afterwards that she had received an assurance that the UK Government would be "open and flexible" to options in the forthcoming Brexit process.

*wink, wink*, save us?

 

[Hasney]

SAVE_US.Y2MAY

 

[SporeCrawler]

Theresa May suggests Brexit delay as she says no Article 50 until Scotland gives go-ahead




*wink, wink*, save us?

interesting tactics by may

if sturgeon does not give the go ahead may has a good reason to say that brexit is not happening and sturgeon will be the "culprit". independent referendum is off the table
if sturgeon does give the go ahead it will be hard for sturgeon to explain why she wants independent referendum when she gave the Article 50 trigger a go ahead.

 

[PJV3]

interesting tactics by may

if sturgeon does not give the go ahead may has a good reason to say that brexit is not happening and sturgeon will be the "culprit". independent referendum is off the table
if sturgeon does give the go ahead it will be hard for sturgeon to explain why she wants independent referendum when she gave the Article 50 trigger a go ahead.

It's just reality in my opinion.

Scotland is a nation and has voted clearly to stay in, this isn't the 19th century we have to compromise internally as a union, change the nature of the union or give Scotland a chance to leave.

Unless we are prepared to roll tanks up in Edinburgh, they will be going sooner or later.

 

[Mr Git]

It'd be somewhere with a big airport, for sure. Manchester would make sense.

Parliament in Manchester? Egg sales would soar.

 

[JonnyDBrit]

interesting tactics by may

if sturgeon does not give the go ahead may has a good reason to say that brexit is not happening and sturgeon will be the "culprit". independent referendum is off the table
if sturgeon does give the go ahead it will be hard for sturgeon to explain why she wants independent referendum when she gave the Article 50 trigger a go ahead.

Simultaneously from Sturgeon's perspective, she'd be able to paint May as as yet another unconcerned southerner if they went ahead with Article 50 without clear consent by Scotland, strengthening the call for a second independence referendum. But if she gets some sort of deal from May in order to give that consent, then she can say she's managed to twist Westminster's arm, trumpeting her own strength as a politician.

Admittedly, it'll be interesting to see the political manoeuvring between these two.

 

[SporeCrawler]

Simultaneously from Sturgeon's perspective, she'd be able to paint May as as yet another unconcerned southerner if they went ahead with Article 50 without clear consent by Scotland, strengthening the call for a second independence referendum. But if she gets some sort of deal from May in order to give that consent, then she can say she's managed to twist Westminster's arm, trumpeting her own strength as a politician.

Admittedly, it'll be interesting to see the political manoeuvring between these two.

To be honest I cant see may really wanting the brexit. She knows what damage it will cause to the UK (simply look at how dependent UK is on the service sector in particular the finance service sector. it will be basically impossible to export services once the UK is out of the EU unless they are going for an norwegian model). So yes I think secretly May would want Sturgeon to veto.

Sturgeon may has to bury her independence plans forever and while the scots probably will welcome her veto she will be hated everywhere else. So the question is what would sturgeon get for the veto from may?

 

[nature boy]

interesting tactics by may

if sturgeon does not give the go ahead may has a good reason to say that brexit is not happening and sturgeon will be the "culprit". independent referendum is off the table
if sturgeon does give the go ahead it will be hard for sturgeon to explain why she wants independent referendum when she gave the Article 50 trigger a go ahead.

Under what scenario could Sturgeon say "yes we agree, let's leave the EU, invoke Article 50"?

If Sturgeon "vetoes", I think that legitimizes the 2nd indy ref.

It all comes down to what's the most important union Parliament wants to keep.

 

[Wickerbasket]

interesting tactics by may

if sturgeon does not give the go ahead may has a good reason to say that brexit is not happening and sturgeon will be the "culprit". independent referendum is off the table
if sturgeon does give the go ahead it will be hard for sturgeon to explain why she wants independent referendum when she gave the Article 50 trigger a go ahead.

As a Scot, I'd say we'd gladly take the blame if it caused us to stay in the EU. Direct all your hate towards us, we don't give a shit.

I don't really understand what her game plan is here though, Sturgeon's not going to give the go ahead for that.

 

[Joni]

interesting tactics by may

if sturgeon does not give the go ahead may has a good reason to say that brexit is not happening and sturgeon will be the "culprit". independent referendum is off the table
if sturgeon does give the go ahead it will be hard for sturgeon to explain why she wants independent referendum when she gave the Article 50 trigger a go ahead.

If Sturgeon doesn't give the go-ahead, May is stuck in a situation where she either has to explain to the entire world that there will never be an Article 50 invocation which will anger the people actually voting for her; she has to give Scotland something to let Article 50 pass; or she has to shut up for years lengthening the status-quo of companies not investing.

 

[JonnyDBrit]

To be honest I cant see may really wanting the brexit. She knows what damage it will cause to the UK (simply look at how dependent UK is on the service sector in particular the finance service sector. it will be basically impossible to export services once the UK is out of the EU unless they are going for an norwegian model). So yes I think secretly May would want Sturgeon to veto.

Sturgeon may has to bury her independence plans forever and while the scots probably will welcome her veto she will be hated everywhere else. So the question is what would sturgeon get for the veto from may?

That's the admitted uncertainty, for which I apologise. While Sturgeon could get a deal from Westminster, what she could actually ask for that she wouldn't have people left wanting more to begin with - ie, enough autonomy to stay in the EU would beg why not just go independent - is total guesswork. Was just considering how she might be able to use the scenario.

 

[kmag]

You know that WTO fallback?

Well since our current trade schedules are under the EU, we'll have to resubmit our schedules based on whatever our new regulatory system is, opening us up to WTO members complaining or taking retaliatory measures.

The example given is farm subsidies. Due to the size of the common market, countries are largely ok with the EU giving such large subsidies to farmers, they might not be so happy if the UK as a much smaller potential market is enacting the same protections.

The FT went into it a couple of days back. That article suggest a general goods deal could be relatively straight forward, but stuff like agriculture and services not so much

https://next.ft.com/content/5741129a-4510-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d

Under this model the UK would rely on its membership of the WTO for access to European markets and as a first step towards full-blown free trade agreements with other blocs and countries — including the EU.

But the WTO option is by no means guaranteed. Here are some of the key questions about what could turn out to be a protracted and politically contentious process.

Can the UK just go ahead and trade under WTO terms as soon as it leaves the EU?

No. In practice, the UK would have to detach itself from the EU and regularise its position within the WTO before it could sign its own trade agreements, including with the EU. As Roberto Azevêdo, the WTO’s director-general, said recently, there is no precedent for a WTO member extricating itself from an economic union while inside the organisation. The process would not be easy and would likely take years before the UK’s WTO position was settled, not least because no other member states would have to agree.

Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, director of the European Centre for International Political Economy and a former EU trade negotiator, says: “In theory it’s not hard to create a services schedule for the UK out of the EU schedule. But while it’s intellectually quite easy it’s an excruciating legal process.”

Mr Lee-Makiyama notes that it took five years to integrate Bulgaria and Romania into the EU services schedule after they joined the bloc. While some trade officials say it may be easier to create a schedule for a leaving member than one arriving, they seem to agree the process can be measured in years rather than months.

So what is the realistic short-term prospect for WTO access to European and other markets?

As Mr Ungphakorn says: “None of this is impossible, but it won’t be sorted out quickly.” While the schedules are being agreed, the UK’s legal status as a trading nation will be undetermined, with all that implies for uncertainty and business decisions.

The speed of the UK being able to trade on WTO terms in its own right will partly depend on political will. Yet even if other governments co-operate and accept London’s proposals, the legal processes and paperwork are likely to take years.

 

[killer_clank]

What Sturgeon wants is actually the most easily attainable post-brexit settlement for the UK - EEA membership and continued participation in certain EU programs e.g Erasmus. So May could get an agreement on this from Sturgeon, but it will never happen because May has to placate her backbenchers who want a hard brexit with border controls.

If May wants to hold off indyref2 all she has to do is face down her own backbenchers (and ministers!). But in their heart of hearts a lot of Tory MPs will honestly rather leaving the EU with a hard brexit than keeping the union together. This is why the Union is a failed political project that is close to unraveling forever.

 

[Beefy]

Anyone seen the jobs market look like shit atm?

 

[Maledict]

What Sturgeon wants is actually the most easily attainable post-brexit settlement for the UK - EEA membership and continued participation in certain EU programs e.g Erasmus. So May could get an agreement on this from Sturgeon, but it will never happen because May has to placate her backbenchers who want a hard brexit with border controls.

If May wants to hold off indyref2 all she has to do is face down her own backbenchers (and ministers!). But in their heart of hearts a lot of Tory MPs will honestly rather leaving the EU with a hard brexit than keeping the union together. This is why the Union is a failed political project that is close to unraveling forever.

Um, the majority of Tory MPs are remain - and those that are Leave are divided on what they want, and you can guarantee some of the would want Scotland to stay.

The number who want a hard Brexit is really small - probably 20 or so in total. Your Rees-Mogga and David Davis of the world.

 

[killer_clank]

Um, the majority of Tory MPs are remain - and those that are Leave are divided on what they want, and you can guarantee some of the would want Scotland to stay.

The number who want a hard Brexit is really small - probably 20 or so in total. Your Rees-Mogga and David Davis of the world.

the tories are political shapeshifters though - most of them will hold any position if it enhances their grip of power - and May seems pretty insistent on a hard Brexit herself by appointing David Davis to his role. I suspect the numbers of tory MPs who would support an EEA-style brexit will increasingly dwindle.

 

[P44]

interesting tactics by may

if sturgeon does not give the go ahead may has a good reason to say that brexit is not happening and sturgeon will be the "culprit". independent referendum is off the table
if sturgeon does give the go ahead it will be hard for sturgeon to explain why she wants independent referendum when she gave the Article 50 trigger a go ahead.

is it valid to suggest sturgeon might not give a shit?

if england voters hate her its a bit

oh well

 

[Par Score]

sensed this was going to happen, I expect them to say anyone pre referendum can stay but all others now have to leave/apply for visa

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/brexit-minister-eu-migrants-may-leave-uk-093206256--finance.html

Yep, mass deportations always go well, absolutely no problems there whatsoever.

It's a total fantasy that masses of EU citizens who came here legally would ever be forced to leave, it is simply not going to happen, and suggesting it might is highly irresponsible considering the spate of racist attacks we've seen in the wake of the referendum result.

 

[Captain Chaos]

Automotive components. Especially in the Motorsport industry.

Australia has better Automotive components then Germany?

 

[StayDead]

Theresa May suggests Brexit delay as she says no Article 50 until Scotland gives go-ahead




*wink, wink*, save us?

Please Scotland save us.

 

[Theonik]

Australia has better Automotive components then Germany?

AMG is for Australian Motoring Gentlemen didn't you know?

Um, the majority of Tory MPs are remain - and those that are Leave are divided on what they want, and you can guarantee some of the would want Scotland to stay.

The number who want a hard Brexit is really small - probably 20 or so in total. Your Rees-Mogga and David Davis of the world.

But May risks losing a vote of confidence if she loses them since her majority is only 12 seats or so. That being said, many of them would rather have soft brexit over breaking the union so that can be pushed to keep them in line.

 

[Maledict]

Losing a vote of no confidence, and then going to a general election in a soft Brexit platform and winning a huge majority thanks to Corbyn would be fab for her.

Not saying she's planning it through to that level, but there's numerous ways she can turn it to her advantage as the opposition is so utterly, terribly useless right now. Friend of mine went to a local labour group meeting up north - he's been a life long member. They normally get 5 to 10 people,but this time they got over 40. That should be a cause for celebration - but all the new people want to build a social revolution rather than win an election.

The ability of the white middle class liberals to write off a decade in pursuit of an unachievable utopia is terrifying given what it will cost the country.

 

[GoldenEye 007]

Theresa May suggests Brexit delay as she says no Article 50 until Scotland gives go-ahead




*wink, wink*, save us?

Doesn't Scotland just have to say we voted the way we did because we were assured we would be able to stay in the EU? Now everything was changed and that expectation was changed after the fact?

 

[Theonik]

Losing a vote of no confidence, and then going to a general election in a soft Brexit platform and winning a huge majority thanks to Corbyn would be fab for her.

Not saying she's planning it through to that level, but there's numerous ways she can turn it to her advantage as the opposition is so utterly, terribly useless right now. Friend of mine went to a local labour group meeting up north - he's been a life long member. They normally get 5 to 10 people,but this time they got over 40. That should be a cause for celebration - but all the new people want to build a social revolution rather than win an election.

The ability of the white middle class liberals to write off a decade in pursuit of an unachievable utopia is terrifying given what it will cost the country.

All her actions so far show she is trying to unify the party and prevent an early election if possible. If she lost a vote of no confidence and an early election was called she might still win and that would allow her to consolidate her bases further which would make for much easier manoeuvring.

But it doesn't seem to be the plan right now. It's probably under consideration but I don't know if the timing is right. (in a sense you could say that labour being headless would make it ideal, but brexit has also left the Tories broken internally even if they did resolve their leadership problem quickly)

 

[norinrad]

Theresa May suggests Brexit delay as she says no Article 50 until Scotland gives go-ahead




*wink, wink*, save us?

This would be awesome, though hmmmm at what price?

 

[BigAl1992]

Theresa May suggests Brexit delay as she says no Article 50 until Scotland gives go-ahead




*wink, wink*, save us?

Just what exactly would May have to offer to get Sturgeon to veto Brexit, short of full Scottish Independence, unless Sturgeon just goes pure "Fuck you" to the entire population of England and cement her position in the view of the Scottish People by vetoing it.

 

[nekkid]

Australia has better Automotive components then Germany?

There are certain components that absolutely go-to for Australian brands.

 

[More Fun To Compute]

There are certain components that absolutely go-to for Australian brands.

I think that Australia is General Motors and Toyota territory.

 

[nekkid]

I think that Australia is General Motors and Toyota territory.

I'm talking low yield, high value performance items. As I mentioned, mainly in the Motorsport industry.

OEMs largely source suppliers from primarily Germany, then Spain, then the UK. JLR, Aston Martin, Honda etc. don't exactly source much of their stuff from Australia, but F1, WTCC, BTC, F-E all do.

 

[nature boy]

Just what exactly would May have to offer to get Sturgeon to veto Brexit, short of full Scottish Independence, unless Sturgeon just goes pure "Fuck you" to the entire population of England and cement her position in the view of the Scottish People by vetoing it.

I think Scotland and London need to present a united front and say "hell no, we're staying the EU".

But I'm making the assumption that between EU membership and independence Sturgeon prefers the former over the latter at this point.

Even Sturgeon admits she has a big leverage.

 

[JonnyDBrit]

I think Scotland and London need to present a united front and say "hell no, we're staying the EU".

But I'm making the assumption that between EU membership and independence Sturgeon prefers the former over the latter at this point.

Even Sturgeon admits she has a big leverage.

Thinking about it, Sturgeon really should be talking to Khan, shouldn't she? London voted along a similar margin to Remain, so one could say that if Scotland is given such leverage by that amount, so should the capital.

 

[SporeCrawler]

If Sturgeon doesn't give the go-ahead, May is stuck in a situation where she either has to explain to the entire world that there will never be an Article 50 invocation which will anger the people actually voting for her; she has to give Scotland something to let Article 50 pass; or she has to shut up for years lengthening the status-quo of companies not investing.

well she may direct the anger to sturgeon and sturgeon is not dependent on the english people. the scottish will probably be satisfied with the veto.

That's the admitted uncertainty, for which I apologise. While Sturgeon could get a deal from Westminster, what she could actually ask for that she wouldn't have people left wanting more to begin with - ie, enough autonomy to stay in the EU would beg why not just go independent - is total guesswork. Was just considering how she might be able to use the scenario.

there is uncertainty if certain EU states will veto scottland if they actually go independent (spain in particular). this may also be brought up in a second referendum.

 

[nature boy]

Thinking about it, Sturgeon really should be talking to Khan, shouldn't she? London voted along a similar margin to Remain, so one could say that if Scotland is given such leverage by that amount, so should the capital.

If they're not talking, it's a big mistake on their part IMO. Khan should be asking for a veto.

Completely decreases May's range of options.

 

[Bo-Locks]

I honestly can't tell if people in this thread suggesting London somehow remains in the EU while the rest of the country exits are being serious. In the case of Scotland and NI this has some merit since they are entities / nations / countries that voted to remain, have their own political and legal setups. The dominance of London over the rest of the country is one of the main factors that has brought the UK to this current state and the answer to the problem isn't to give London a veto and make it even more of a city state than it already is.

One of the very few and slim ways I can see this situation being rescued is by putting exiting the EU on the back burner for a little while and going absolutely all-out on devolving power outside of London to Scotland, Wales, NI and English regions and essentially federalising the UK with a proper constitution. Make it effectively impossible to exit the EU without unanimous support in the new federation.

That's the only scenario in which the UK doesn't break apart. Should have done this in 2014 after the Scottish referendum when the writing was on the wall for the UK. You can kill two birds with one stone in this way by keeping the UK intact and preventing massive damage to the economy and peoples livelihoods by exiting the EU.

 

[f0rk]

If they're not talking, it's a big mistake on their part IMO. Khan should be asking for a veto.

Completely decreases May's range of options.

Scotland is a country. London isn't. Giving the capital a veto would come from the same line of thinking that got us in this mess in the first place.

 

[nature boy]

Scotland is a country. London isn't. Giving the capital a veto would come from the same line of thinking that got us in this mess in the first place.

I never said the government should give London a veto, but London should certainly ask for it. More pressure on the government against Brexit. London certainly has the right to be a part of the discussion.