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[Uzzy]

An example of the positive news being...?

What positive news??

Speaking as a graduate I'm having a hard enough fucking time finding a job, I didn't need the stupid xenophobic wilfully ignorant jingoistic shite of utter morons making my life any fucking harder.

I graduated in 2012 and struggled to find any jobs for a long time. I get your pain.

As for positive news, there's retail sales rising by 1.4% in July, and a fall in unemployment rates too.

There's a huge list of caveats on any economic figures at the moment, of course, not least in that we don't know what shape Brexit will take, or what economic strategy the government will put forward. But, again, we were promised economic armageddon just by voting for Brexit. That's not happened, and all this thread seems to focus on is taking any moderately bad news and spinning it into a declaration that Brexit was insane.

 

[gerg]

What positive news??

The effect will be localised, but tourism will be up because of the lower pound, an effect already seen in the restaurant industry in London. Of course, this might only aggravate structural and regional deficiencies in the UK - the Evening Standard notes that takings outside the M25 fell by 0.5% (although they were unclear if that meant literally everywhere in the UK that isn't in central London) - but it's not clear that a Remain vote would have made any difference in that regard either.

I work at a Japanese restaurant which, by its nature, is dependent upon a large proportion of imported stock. As the pound has devalued our suppliers will inevitably pass on the 15% increase in price to us, and to that effect we have already implemented a change in portion size of one of our servings of sake to mitigate that. But this effect will be further mitigated if our footfall is increased on account of that same, cheaper pound.

[As for larger discussions for voting Remain or Leave in principal, I voted Remain because it would have kept things the way they were. On the other hand, a Remain victory would have actually kept things the way they were.]

 

[Log4Girlz]

Also, Great Britain has done really well in the olympics even though you declared you would shoot yourself in the dick. #dontbelievetheexperts

You mean the EU has done really well in the Olympics. You haven't left yet.

 

[Bleepey]

It obviously sucks that people on this very forum have been fired, and the rise in hate crimes is utterly deplorable. But the economic armageddon that was promised simply hasn't happened. Where's Osborne's promised emergency budget? You know, the £15b of cuts and £15b of tax increases in the event we voted for Brexit? Oh, wait, Osborne got kicked out after his mate Cameron did a runner.

Yes, there's been some bad news, just as there was bad news before the vote. There's also been some positive news, just as there was positive news before the vote.

What positive news? There have been a shot tonne of negative economic consequences, communities dependent on construction took an economic hit, Wales and Cornwall took an economic hit and pleaded with the govt to make up the shortfall in economic finding. I wouldn't blame Theresa May and co, to say no, you voted for it you can lie in your own bed.

 

[Tak3n]

Well things can not be that bad, as all of our politicians fucked off on holiday (Except Boris it seems)

It seems the City is going to be the sticking point, as much as I would gladly pack all of their bags for them, I also appreciate they bring a lot of tax money in.....

this whole saga is a tale for other countries, concentrate on only one city to the detriment of the rest of your country at your peril

 

[Audioboxer]

I'm surprised o_o
I thought they'd had enough of experts?



I like the cut of your gib sir

Twin Peaks <3

Brexit </3

 

[tuxfool]

Belongs here too, but worth ignoring because Schrodinger was an expert.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

With respect, Uzzy, even at the time many Remainers pointed out that Osborne's "emergency budget" was a shit line that probably wasn't true. That was why it was very rapidly retired. Of course the economy was not immediately going to collapse the day after the vote. Even if Article 50 had been triggered the moment the vote was in, we still wouldn't have left for 2 years after that. Any aspect of expenditure which was not forward looking would therefore be entirely unaffected for another 2 years. That means a lot of metrics (unemployment, retail purchases) haven't been touched by Brexit, and won't be (at least no significantly) until it actually happens. I think the more honest Remainers (I agree there was an aspect of Project Fear from the main Conservative campaign) have always pointed this out.

However, this is not to say a) there will be no impact, or b) there has been no impact. I'll not talk about a), because we've been over this a very many times before in this thread. Suffice to say, I think there is a huge wealth of evidence to suggest that leaving the single market will be immensely damaging, but fine, you might disagree, and we'll have to wait until it actually happens to be sure (although, again, I think there is a very heavy weight of evidence to suggest my premonitions are correct and yours are not). But I do want to focus on b), because while Osbourne's emergency budget hasn't happened yet, bad stuff has happened.

Where it has happened is forward-looking expenditure - particularly investment, because what you spend now obviously depends on how much it pays in the future; but also assets for a similar reason.

We know that manufacturers are planning to invest less:
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...feeling-gloomy-about-future-after-brexit-vote

We know that the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 have fallen in dollar terms (I've shown this earlier in the thread, just dodge back a few pages).

These aren't just abstract things. Both these sorts of things fall when people whose lives depend on making these sorts of investment or asset purchase decisions expect the economy to do badly in the future.

So, with respect, I think you are ignoring things as hard as you can because they don't suit your decision. It was not a good one.

 

[Theonik]

Osbourne's emergency budget won't happen without Osbourne being on board. That is not to say that it was unreasonable. If current projections hold, the impact of the vote itself is enough to affect the current deficit plan that was targeted by 2020, which means a new budget that is more strict would be necessary provided the Tories still want to push towards a surplus as they were.

This always comes with the caveat that with the new administration, no-one is bound to chase the 2020 surplus regardless if it was even possible to hit. You could bypass the need for an 'emergency budget' by just growing the deficit further. Not sure what Tory voters actually prefer though.

e: If Cameron stayed on and did article 50 as he promised, Osbourne could have probably been called to implement the new austerity before too long. Though I never thought that Cameron would actually stay with a leave result or that it would ever be implemented, based on the case that was made it was not an absurd proposition.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Should be noted that a lot of the 'economic apocalypse' talk was based on the entirely sensible logic that article 50 would not be put in the freezer semi-indefinitely by a new Tory cabinet.

There are lots of people who have ceased to care about Brexit now that the vote's over and just want to get on with their lives. So it makes sense that consumer confidence hasn't crashed - half the country is happy with the decision and a good chunk of the other half have ceased to care.

The top level economics is ugly, though. Sterling holding at its current levels is the optimistic outcome and it may yet slide further. The share markets are down in dollar value. Long term investment is being damaged which could have consequences for many years to come.

What will ultimately decide the fate of the market is how the new cabinet handles the issue. If Article 50 is enacted, I'd expect that's the moment the real crisis begins. As it stands, the status quo reigns.

I still am holding out hope for the Brexit triumvirate making such a mess of planning out the negotiations that Article 50 is delayed heavily. If BoJo and the rest fowl up for a year, say, May will be forced to have Brexit being a huge issue at the 2020 General Election, which no sane Tory leader would ever want!

EDIT: Plus we have no idea what the political climate will be when/if Article 50 is invoked. We don't know if the formal opposition will be for or against Brexit, we don't know if UKIP will survive its current implosion, we don't know if Labour will split. As a Lib Dem, I hold out hope for a hundred Labour MPs deciding to shack up with Farron and Ashdown instead, and suddenly Remain has a clear and loud voice for it in Parliament, but I am not holding my breath.

 

[phisheep]

bad stuff has happened.

Where it has happened is forward-looking expenditure - particularly investment, because what you spend now obviously depends on how much it pays in the future; but also assets for a similar reason.

It has happened rather more immediately than that for anyone who imports stuff ...

I buy goods to be sold in UK from China in $USD and my products for 2017 I am working on currently have 20% higher costs, we will pass this onto the prices we charge retail and retail will pass this onto end consumers.

... I get it like Captain Chaos, only quicker and more personally.

On Friday 24th June, my costs went up 20%. I don't have a lot of leeway on prices, as most of my customers have little disposable income. This means that roughly I now have 30% less to live on.

That's a pretty drastic and immediate impact for something that hasn't even happened yet.

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

Part of me think this whole thing is being dragged out as long as it is so that when it finally does happen, peoples memory of what actually caused it becomes hazy.

It's harder to sell the effects of Brexit 3 or 4 years down the line, which is ultimately when the majority of leave voters are going to really feel it's effects. Even a hard Brexit tomorrow will not hit them properly in a manner they can clearly see until well after the process has finished.

 

[tomtom94]

As a Lib Dem, I hold out hope for a hundred Labour MPs deciding to shack up with Farron and Ashdown instead, and suddenly Remain has a clear and loud voice for it in Parliament, but I am not holding my breath.

Not before the next general, I don't think. A load of Labour MPs coming across to dictate policy would be a whole different kind of entryism.

 

[MacBosse]

What is the latest word on when Article 50 will be invoked?

 

[gerg]

What is the latest word on when Article 50 will be invoked?

The beginning of 2017 is currently the earliest estimate - I've not heard anything about the likelihood of that date being maintained or pushed back, however.

 

[pootle]

The uncertainty is crippling future growth, even as importers are already suffering.

Honestly, the only other thing that I can remember having this much of an effect was the 9/11 attacks. Everybody knew things were going to happen but had no idea what.

The initial disbelief turned into a hunkering down and withdrawal from any investment or risk taking.

How can you put in a capex proposal when you have no idea what's going to happen next? The rules and regs, legislation, financials, even personnel to work? Sure you can guess and predict but justifying, even identifying the risks in any big project is much harder now.

A friend works for a family owned company that refused to believe brexit could possibly happen and went on an expansion drive a while ago. Cue their european customers now saying they will switch to european suppliers because even with the pound's slide when they are looking to the future they want to go with the easiest, simplest and most predictable supply chain. My friend's job isn't looking safe. This must be happening to other companies too.

I think this is where I say AND WE HAVEN'T EVEN LEFT YET!

 

[Piecake]

Part of me think this whole thing is being dragged out as long as it is so that when it finally does happen, peoples memory of what actually caused it becomes hazy.

It's harder to sell the effects of Brexit 3 or 4 years down the line, which is ultimately when the majority of leave voters are going to really feel it's effects. Even a hard Brexit tomorrow will not hit them properly in a manner they can clearly see until well after the process has finished.

I kinda doubt that.

I would imagine that there needs to be a lot of preparation involved so that once article 50 is invoked a lot of necessary things can get done relatively quickly after that. You don't want article 50 invoked now and then have the government start to prepare all of these trade deals, WTO, immigration, EU, legal stuff.

Plus, I imagine that a lot of them simply do not want to do it and are hoping for some sort of divine intervention where all of this can just go away or an easy solution just magically appears in their lap.

 

[tuxfool]

I kinda doubt that.

I would imagine that there needs to be a lot of preparation involved so that once article 50 is invoked a lot of necessary things can get done relatively quickly after that. You don't want article 50 invoked now and then have the government start to prepare all of these trade deals, WTO, immigration, EU, legal stuff.

A lot of these things only begin in earnest after Article 50 is triggered. What they do need to do is to prepare for post 50 preparations.

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

I kinda doubt that.

I would imagine that there needs to be a lot of preparation involved so that once article 50 is invoked a lot of necessary things can get done relatively quickly after that. You don't want article 50 invoked now and then have the government start to prepare all of these trade deals, WTO, immigration, EU, legal stuff.

Plus, I imagine that a lot of them simply do not want to do it and are hoping for some sort of divine intervention where all of this can just go away or an easy solution just magically appears in their lap.

Leaving the EU is definitely something most MPs in both parties don't want. At all.

 

[kmag]

The beginning of 2017 is currently the earliest estimate - I've not heard anything about the likelihood of that date being maintained or pushed back, however.

There's been significant talk that it'll be delayed until the end of 2017 now. Due to a combination of the Brexit government departments taking an age to come together and the French and German elections.

 

[kmag]

I kinda doubt that.

I would imagine that there needs to be a lot of preparation involved so that once article 50 is invoked a lot of necessary things can get done relatively quickly after that. You don't want article 50 invoked now and then have the government start to prepare all of these trade deals, WTO, immigration, EU, legal stuff.

Plus, I imagine that a lot of them simply do not want to do it and are hoping for some sort of divine intervention where all of this can just go away or an easy solution just magically appears in their lap.

The thing is they can't prepare any of that shit outside of getting their opening negotiation position together.

WTO: can't deal with it while they're in the EU (and requires EU agreement on most of the major issues)
Trade deals: Can't do anything more than informal talks, and again are hamstrung without both parties knowing what the UK's future relationship with the EU will look like.
Immigration: Reliant on the EU deal, but I imagine if they set a red line they can work on their points system but doing that would hamstring their EU negotiation

 

[Par Score]

What is the latest word on when Article 50 will be invoked?

When we elect a PM, and a majority of MPs, insane enough to want to destroy the country at the stroke of a pen.

So hopefully never, which is still my fairly confident prediction.

 

[Soldiussnaku]

Leaving the EU is definitely something most MPs in both parties don't want. At all.

Not only that, it's slowly becoming clear the toires, well those who are in powerful positions who supported remain, including the PM, look to delay brexit as much as possible due to the electorate.

Since millions of them voted to leave, one of the best courses of action is to convince the public to go back on it's decision, with the UK potentially going into a reccesion somtime soon, that would present the perfect opportunity to convince people en masse to go back on voting to leave. Win win for the government and for the public.

I mean, let's face it, the scenario that played out in the leave camp after brexit actually was voted in favour for tells you how much the top epople in the leave camp actually wanted to win. The whole power of the leave camp is amlost gone, who the fuck will actually hold the government accountable for delaying this shitshow for as long as possible? May actually played a masterstroke by having Boris and co in her cabinet, the faces and power behind leave, she now has bargainging chips to play with.

The electorate does not fucking care, really, we've been fucked over by government for a long time now, and still people just don't bother to hold politcians accountable. The uneducated, illogical, racist part of the uk had thier 15 mins of fame by voting to leave, they'll be content with thier victory for a long time to come.

May can choose to hit people where it REALLY hurts, the purse, even the stupid, illogical fucks who voted leave do not want to end up poor or broke. A recession, futher big benefit cuts, or long term ecomic gloom will quickly change the tune of those who voted to leave.

 

[Tak3n]

A loonnnnnggg article about how the EU has effectively become frozen since Brexit and has not a idea how to proceed.... but interestingly is the last paragraph, where the author claims the attitude to a 'special status' for the UK to remain part of the single market with immigration controls was suggested by the German Minister, and the whole article is pretty much saying that Germany is now becoming the pivotal country around what the EU does (much to France disdain)




I always said the EU would negotiate before article 50 in a darkened room, and this backs that up... I believed I flew solo on that theory at the time

Informal negotiations even seem to be taking place despite the initial Brussels mantra of &#8220;no negotiation before notification&#8221;.

At the centre of all this, geographically and politically, is Germany. The Brexit vote has thrust Berlin into an even more pivotal position &#8211; the future of the EU will now revolve even more tightly around Germany. German politicians are aware that expectations have increased, but so have fears of German power. German politicians talk about &#8220;leading from the centre&#8221;, in other words, to drive policy but to do so by seeking to find a European consensus.

Chancellor Merkel seems, for now, to have prevailed with her patient approach to Brexit; as the reality set in that there was nothing anyone could do to make the UK invoke article 50, the calls for the UK to &#8220;go quickly&#8221; largely stopped. Informal negotiations even seem to be taking place despite the initial Brussels mantra of &#8220;no negotiation before notification&#8221;.

But two months on from the referendum, the answer to the big question &#8211; will the UK be able to negotiate access to the single market, particularly for services, while restricting immigration from the EU? &#8211; remains unclear. Last week, Germany&#8217;s European affairs minister indicated Britain could be given a &#8220;special status&#8221;. To British ears, that might sound like the best of both worlds &#8211; perhaps the access to the single market that comes with EEA membership together with the ability to restrict immigration that comes with a looser trade agreement. Whether that turns out to be wishful thinking will depend on the domestic political pressures on Europe&#8217;s leaders and the negotiation between them about the future of the EU &#8220;at 27&#8221;.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/21/europe-leaders-response-brexit-vote

Just for clarity the Guardian is claimed to be left wing and they also campaigned for remain

 

[oti]

.

I don't think

Informal negotiations even seem to be taking place despite the initial Brussels mantra of &#8220;no negotiation before notification&#8221;.

backs anything up, bud. Give me more sources and evidence and then sure.

Last few weeks have been so weird though. Brexit isn't really in the news here in Germany since there are more important matters and the UK ain't doing anything anyway at this point. Invoke Art. 50 already so we can finally move on. Next big event should be the EU summit about the future of the Union.

 

[KNT-Zero]

So guys,

I live in the south east of thr UK, where the cost of living is not particularly cheap. Rent here is over the top but I really like this city, so I have been thinking of getting a mortgage in a place. Keep in mind that, I work in a minimum wage job, and I'm an EU citizen with 5 years of living in the UK.

I have been told getting a mortgage now with the Brexit situation where every speculator is uncertain about it's outcome, could be a good idea.

Sooo mortgage. Bad idea? Maaaayyybe good idea?

Any place I can get properly informed about it? Thaaaanks!

 

[SporeCrawler]

There's been significant talk that it'll be delayed until the end of 2017 now. Due to a combination of the Brexit government departments taking an age to come together and the French and German elections.

Lol there will be some kind of important election every year. This just means that they will keep delaying as long as they can. It will be a good tell if they will let people vote for the european parliament

A loonnnnnggg article about how the EU has effectively become frozen since Brexit and has not a idea how to proceed.... but interestingly is the last paragraph, where the author claims the attitude to a 'special status' for the UK to remain part of the single market with immigration controls was suggested by the German Minister, and the whole article is pretty much saying that Germany is now becoming the pivotal country around what the EU does (much to France disdain)




I always said the EU would negotiate before article 50 in a darkened room, and this backs that up... I believed I flew solo on that theory at the time





https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/21/europe-leaders-response-brexit-vote

Just for clarity the Guardian is claimed to be left wing and they also campaigned for remain

Steinmeier clearly said that there is no single market access without accepting freedom of movement multiple times.

Germany is interested in shutting GB service industry out of europe (in particular financial services)

 

[Xando]

There's been significant talk that it'll be delayed until the end of 2017 now. Due to a combination of the Brexit government departments taking an age to come together and the French and German elections.

What would that help though. Both german and french electorates have a vast majority of people wanting no or very small concessions. Neither Merkel or whoever will be french president next year are strong enough to go against a 60+ % majority in public opinion.
I don't see what you guys could offer us to change that general mood against the UK and its "special" position with the EU.

Most people i talked about brexit with are more like "let's get this shit over with" instead of "let's try to keep them in"


It's interesting that some of you guys and in british media still think there will be some kind of special deal for the UK.
You guys gonna get the same offer as Norway or Switzerland. Can't really see why it would be in EU, French or German interest to give you anything more than that

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

Just deal with free movement, stop being so salty UK. Not worth tanking the economy over. London is pretty overrated as a capital city tho, IMO. Nightlife is shit, got another popular club sold to developers and another one which might be forced to close. Pubs are closing too at a rapid rate if you aren't into bars and clubs like I am. The service industry is the main reason its relevant. If the banks move to the EU London is fucked.

 

[Frankfurter]

A loonnnnnggg article about how the EU has effectively become frozen since Brexit and has not a idea how to proceed.... but interestingly is the last paragraph, where the author claims the attitude to a 'special status' for the UK to remain part of the single market with immigration controls was suggested by the German Minister, and the whole article is pretty much saying that Germany is now becoming the pivotal country around what the EU does (much to France disdain)




I always said the EU would negotiate before article 50 in a darkened room, and this backs that up... I believed I flew solo on that theory at the time





https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/21/europe-leaders-response-brexit-vote

Just for clarity the Guardian is claimed to be left wing and they also campaigned for remain

Speculation (~seem to be happening etc.) + an unclear message from the German Minister for EU Affairs.. now that's not exactly a lot. Just btw. the boss of said minister, Mr. Steinmeier, and his boss, Mrs. Merkel, have made it clear that what you are hoping for is simply not gonna happen.

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

If the EU won't give Switzerland anything relating to the mere limiting of free movement, why do people here think the EU will allow the UK to fully end it?

 

[Chittagong]

So guys,

I live in the south east of thr UK, where the cost of living is not particularly cheap. Rent here is over the top but I really like this city, so I have been thinking of getting a mortgage in a place. Keep in mind that, I work in a minimum wage job, and I'm an EU citizen with 5 years of living in the UK.

I have been told getting a mortgage now with the Brexit situation where every speculator is uncertain about it's outcome, could be a good idea.

Sooo mortgage. Bad idea? Maaaayyybe good idea?

Any place I can get properly informed about it? Thaaaanks!

Mortgage - good idea. Interest rates are record low, and unlikely to go up in a while, so you can even go tracker mortgage.

Buying a property with the mortgage - probably also a good idea, as you can do bargain hunting amid the uncertainty. That is, unless you believe UK is actually doomed.

 

[tuxfool]

It's interesting that some of you guys and in british media still think there will be some kind of special deal for the UK.
You guys gonna get the same offer as Norway or Switzerland. Can't really see why it would be in EU, French or German interest to give you anything more than that

Norway isn't all that keen on the UK getting a Norway deal either.

 

[Joni]

The whole article is pretty much saying that Germany is now becoming the pivotal country around what the EU does much to France disdain.

The whole article is thus concluding that Hollande is simply not as strong as Sarkozy... They're running a couple of years behind.

 

[Jezbollah]

So guys,

I live in the south east of thr UK, where the cost of living is not particularly cheap. Rent here is over the top but I really like this city, so I have been thinking of getting a mortgage in a place. Keep in mind that, I work in a minimum wage job, and I'm an EU citizen with 5 years of living in the UK.

I have been told getting a mortgage now with the Brexit situation where every speculator is uncertain about it's outcome, could be a good idea.

Sooo mortgage. Bad idea? Maaaayyybe good idea?

Any place I can get properly informed about it? Thaaaanks!

So. A few thoughts

1) Do you have UK citizenship?
2) Have you thought about WHERE you want to buy a new house and the financials involved?
3) Are you in a stable job?
4) Do you have proof of stable income?
5) How long are you prepared to house hunt?

I have alarm bells ringing in my head when I think of what you want, due to your status, your income and where you want to buy. If I was you I would look further into this (maybe post in UKGaf or maybe MoneySavingExpert forums.

 

[KingSnake]

So what's the latest British strategy? Waiting for EU to fall apart (lol) so they don't need to trigger article 50 + schadenfreude?

 

[JonathanEx]

So what's the latest British strategy? Waiting for EU to fall apart (lol) so they don't need to trigger article 50 + schadenfreude?

Currently our strategy according to the papers is to channel the success of Team GB, so that seems pretty flawless

 

[QuicheFontaine]

So guys,

I live in the south east of thr UK, where the cost of living is not particularly cheap. Rent here is over the top but I really like this city, so I have been thinking of getting a mortgage in a place. Keep in mind that, I work in a minimum wage job, and I'm an EU citizen with 5 years of living in the UK.

I have been told getting a mortgage now with the Brexit situation where every speculator is uncertain about it's outcome, could be a good idea.

Sooo mortgage. Bad idea? Maaaayyybe good idea?

Any place I can get properly informed about it? Thaaaanks!

I think it's a good idea. Heck, I literally just got a mortgage two weeks ago.

One thing I would note is that you will need at least a 10% deposit. That is, a lump sum which is the value of 10% of the property you want to purchase. If you look at house prices in the UK this can be a large amount! Most people take many years to save up, so I hope you have been doing that, or have some inheritance. You can't take a loan out for the deposit either. This is the first thing you should think about, as without a deposit the whole thing is a non-starter.

 

[Koren]

A loonnnnnggg article about how the EU has effectively become frozen since Brexit and has not a idea how to proceed.... but interestingly is the last paragraph, where the author claims the attitude to a 'special status' for the UK to remain part of the single market with immigration controls was suggested by the German Minister, and the whole article is pretty much saying that Germany is now becoming the pivotal country around what the EU does (much to France disdain)

Even if Germany agrees to it (and that remains to be seen, I think), don't expect them to unilateraly decide on this. I agree that Germany has a lot of power now, but should UK have a really good deal, you'll probably have frexit right after, and probably others too. Don't forget we have politics that serves us the same kind of empty promices of greenest lands outside of EU.

In the current state of mind of many people in Europe, I'm pretty sure that a great deal for UK means end of EU, period. I don't believe Germany want to risk it just to be nice to UK.

 

[Camp Freddie]

Quiche has some good advice there on deposits. With 5 years in the Uk, I wouldn't worry about thee right to stay, but minimum wage, south east and mortgage could be financially difficult.

The deposit is #1 priority though. The big danger is house prices falling and leaving you in negative equity just as your discount mortgage rate ends.

If you have a good deposit, you could get a great rate due to the low base rate. Without a good deposit, you'll probably have to pay a lot more to cover the extra risk.

Also, house prices are very uncertain right now, so you might get lucky by making a low offer. I have family selling a house and there are practically no viewers compared to last time they moved house. It's a buyer's market unless you're moving somewhere really popular.

On the other hand, house prices and interest rates are unlikely to rise in the next couple of years, so you don't have to rush to buy now.

 

[kmag]

A loonnnnnggg article about how the EU has effectively become frozen since Brexit and has not a idea how to proceed.... but interestingly is the last paragraph, where the author claims the attitude to a 'special status' for the UK to remain part of the single market with immigration controls was suggested by the German Minister, and the whole article is pretty much saying that Germany is now becoming the pivotal country around what the EU does (much to France disdain)




I always said the EU would negotiate before article 50 in a darkened room, and this backs that up... I believed I flew solo on that theory at the time





https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/21/europe-leaders-response-brexit-vote

Just for clarity the Guardian is claimed to be left wing and they also campaigned for remain

The most relevant part of what the German minister said has conviently been left out of most of the UK reporting of his remarks.

"We can't quibble about it. Even if we didn't want or hope for it, Brexit won and, as it won, there can't be any British members in the next European Parliament," Roth said.

Asked whether Britain could adopt a model similar to that of Switzerland or Norway, which are not members of the EU but have close ties to it, Roth said the deal agreed with London would probably be unlike those struck with other countries.

"Given Britain's size, significance and its long membership of the European Union, there will probably be a special status which only bears limited comparison to that of countries that have never belonged to the European Union," he said.

"I want relations between the European Union and Britain to be as close as possible," he said, but added: "There cannot be any cherry picking."

Much of the negotiating on Britain's EU exit is likely to focus on a trade-off between access to the bloc's internal market and the free movement of people. Roth showed little sign of a readiness to compromise here.

Asked if Britain could retain the market access while putting limits on the free movement of people, he replied: "I can't imagine that."

"The free movement of workers is a highly prized right in the European Union and we don't want to wobble on that."

He's essentially said it'll be somewhere between a Canada style deal and far far less than full single market access. And that's one viewpoint.

The EU would be very happy with a Canada style deal, it's good for goods exports. The UK not so much, because the limited services integration and access.

Bottom line the remarks didn't really move the conversation forward.

 

[oti]

Merkel, Hollande and Renzi are meeting in Italy today. I've also seen April as a target for Art. 50 flying around.

 

[Footos22]

So guys,

I live in the south east of the UK, where the cost of living is not particularly cheap. Rent here is over the top but I really like this city, so I have been thinking of getting a mortgage in a place. Keep in mind that, I work in a minimum wage job, and I'm an EU citizen with 5 years of living in the UK.

I have been told getting a mortgage now with the Brexit situation where every speculator is uncertain about it's outcome, could be a good idea.

Sooo mortgage. Bad idea? Maaaayyybe good idea?

Any place I can get properly informed about it? Thaaaanks!

As said above it completely depends on the price of the house and if you have the savings for the deposit. income is the first thing they would look at.

House prices atm are the highest they have ever been. which makes first time buyers have a hard time even getting the deposit in the first place,

The lowest rates usually dabble around 75% Maximum LTV

 

[El Topo]

Merkel, Hollande and Renzi are meeting in Italy today. I've also seen April as a target for Art. 50 flying around.

I wonder if that would make Brexit negotiations part of the German election campaigns.

 

[oti]

I wonder if that would make Brexit negotiations part of the German election campaigns.

Seeing how the general mood in Germany is changing from feeling pity to being annoyed... good luck.

But I don't see how SPD can differentiate itself from the CDU with Brexit. They all should be on the same page.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I wonder if that would make Brexit negotiations part of the German election campaigns.

This is precisely why it won't happen by then. Negotiations will be difficult enough as it is, and May will want to negotiate with Merkel (or whoever wins, but Merkel) rather than the entire population of Germany.

If May does Brexit, there is a narrow window. It can't be dragging on by the British elections (start of 2020), and it can't be during the elections for major European partners (early 2017), and it takes two years, so best bet says the end of 2017 in time to finish by late 2019 and hopefully bury at least some of the immediate consequences in time for an election.

 

[El Topo]

Seeing how the general mood in Germany is changing from feeling pity to being annoyed... good luck.

But I don't see how SPD can differentiate itself from the CDU with Brexit. They all should be on the same page.

I don't even count SPD as a real party anymore.

 

[oti]

I don't even count SPD as a real party anymore.

You made Gabriel cry! Are you happy now?

 

[GamingKaiju]

I don't understand the "wait til Art.50 gets triggered" posts.

What will happen if/when it gets triggered.

The FTSE100/250 will go down?
The £ will go down in value?

The markets have already priced in BRIEXIT. It's done the only thing left to see what type of deal is struck and that is just politics. I'm positive the UK will be fine and London will still be the finicial centre of the world.

 

[Funky Papa]

I don't even know what to say.