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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM
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Royal_Phalanx
Member
If the passport+single market isn't gained, I have a pipe dream that the government will turn around and go 'this is stupid, forget about this Brexit bullshit, it's unrealistic'. They might just be dumb enough to go do it anyway. I doubt the City will maintain its prominence in that case as EU countries will try to get the banks to move over.
DarthMasta
Member
I don't want to put myself up as a expert, but from my reading of the facts London keeping passporting would require some sort of left field, London is now France or Germany or something equally unexpected solution.
The big players in the Eurozone were already unhappy with London being the financial capital of the Eurozone while London was in the EU. Outside the EU? No way. But not like there was anything they could do while the UK was in the EU, they tried, didn't go anywhere. With the UK outside, all they need to do is not agree with any deal that would give London that access. What's the UK going to offer, to keep possibly German citizen Farage away from the EU?
London might still remain the financial capital though, though I doubt it. Short of political conditions changing dramatically, the longer it takes for this whole thing to get going the more UK voters get annoyed at not being listened to, and the easier it gets to have an agreement where the UK gets all of the freedom for everything the rest of the EU wants.
The big players in the Eurozone were already unhappy with London being the financial capital of the Eurozone while London was in the EU. Outside the EU? No way. But not like there was anything they could do while the UK was in the EU, they tried, didn't go anywhere. With the UK outside, all they need to do is not agree with any deal that would give London that access. What's the UK going to offer, to keep possibly German citizen Farage away from the EU?
London might still remain the financial capital though, though I doubt it. Short of political conditions changing dramatically, the longer it takes for this whole thing to get going the more UK voters get annoyed at not being listened to, and the easier it gets to have an agreement where the UK gets all of the freedom for everything the rest of the EU wants.
Nah, by that time the Gov't will be suffering from sunk cost fallacies and push forward.
Ahh I see, yeah.
Saying "bollocks to it" would tear the Tory party in half. We'll see if May's loyalties are to her party or to the well being of her country.
This story is almost as sad as the day Space Raiders were no longer 10p
Now I'm curious, could you post a pic of this delicacy?
Do you want the promotional picture above the counter or how it looks when it's actually served to you?
As it is served. I can handle the truth.
Did you try asking him about each of his complaints? £350 million a week. Here is Farage admitting he lied. Immigration. Here's Dan Hannan admitting he's full of shit. Here is the Sun's retraction. Here is the poster that's ah awful lot like the Nazis. Here are bankers saying they will up sticks. Here is Boris who despite winning a referendum campaign refuses to take Tory party leadership. Where is your dad from? Some people refuse to see sense.
CyclopsRock
Member
It's funny how "Irish" always gets thrown in there. When I worked at McDonalds, many moons ago, the staff room was basically just full of pro-MaccyDs propaganda including posters about how all our beef was from "British and Irish Farms". Why not just British? Or, rather, why not French, Belgian, Dutch etc farms. Nope - they make good cows in Ireland. They're alright, they're allowed in.
We must arrange a full Cow passporting system with the EU.
I remember several interviews with high ranking EU officials before the vote talking about the Switzerland deal saying basically that the EU is already unhappy with the deal Switzerland has and wants to renegotiate it, the idea that they'd give the UK anything similar is ridiculous. So City officials might as well chuck a few unicorns on to their list of requests.
The funny thing is, over here we only hear about "100% irish beef". Now we can keep our superior beef all for ourselves!
(and possibly France)
Immigrants can't win can they, they're either taking your jobs, or they're moving here for benefits and not working
CyclopsRock
Member
Our insatiable appetite for McDonalds cannot be sated by British pastures alone.
To save Trumpets the trouble.
UK public finances post £1bn surplus in July. Thought Brexit had doomed us?
Nevermind that surplus is actually down on the previous July. July is when a large proportion of corporation tax is paid in. Even the surplus being down is nowt to with brexit.
UK public finances post £1bn surplus in July. Thought Brexit had doomed us?
Nevermind that surplus is actually down on the previous July. July is when a large proportion of corporation tax is paid in. Even the surplus being down is nowt to with brexit.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Those cows are in the Common Travel Area, we can't stop them pouring across the border
and into our mouths
Edit:
Join us kmag.
Join us.
the city provides the torys with both voters and donors.
May clearly isn't keen to leave. I would imagine rather than just saying "lol no" they will stage manage the about face in the form of a general election, with a promise of some form of 2nd ref on the details of the deal on offer, with a 60% majority needed for any action (in other words, we stay).
It's still democratic. Brexiters can't moan cos they are soooo keen on democracy when it suits them, and it's not a simple do-over, but rather a new question / framing:
- Leave on X terms (free trade, free movement)
- Leave on Y terms (fuck the world, we are going alone)
- Stay
It would split the brexit vote between the hard-liners and those who want some limits but not total fiscal collapse.
With Labour in that state it's in, do the Tories even need their money, influence and votes?
We'll see if May has given enough rope for the Brexiters in her party to hang themselves. I'm sure she knows just how stupid Brexit is and those cabinet appointments showed she is up to something.
Royal_Phalanx
Member
So, still support Brexit given that it's increasingly foolish as a concept?
QuicheFontaine
Member
Bit of a leading question there, don'tcha think?
This idea that jobs are a finite commodity that can be "taken" has to die.
Opel cuts working hours at German plants due to Brexit
More here: http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-gm-opel-idUKKCN10U0UP
German car manufacturers!
AHA-Lambda
Member
Yeah but Brexiters are also incredibly foolish too
Royal_Phalanx
Member
Well, it's my view on Brexit, feel free to disagree. Pretty sure you're the lone leave voter on this thread and indeed forum.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Hmm, I'd be surprised if that really was the case.
Royal_Phalanx
Member
Sure there was someone else but they got banned or something. The overall mood of this forum is 100% against Brexit since it even happened. The 'whole forum' was pretty much a stretch though, I'll admit it. As I write this I remember there was a Brexit thread and there were a substantial number of Leave supporters (though the forum is still overwhelmingly Remain from what I recall) who are pretty much silent now. I briefly considered voting Leave for a while during the height of the poorly handled refugee issue and the whole EU firearm directive thing which would have banned airsoft (the EU compromised on this bigtime, which changed my views on how 'undemocratic' the EU was, the UK government would refuse to compromise over that whole thing). I am pro migration and pro freedom of movement so that didn't factor into any potential Leave vote. In fact the potential loss of this is what made me make my mind up for Remain. Sadly, we may still lose these rights.
CyclopsRock
Member
It's not zero sum by any means, but it's also the case that if one person has a job, another person cannot have that job. Ergo, unless jobs are added at the same or higher rate than people are added to the workforce and filling them, it's obviously the case that the available jobs will go downwards.
There are many, many things upon which GAF agrees almost 100%. This doesn't, actually, make them right. GAF attracts a certain group that, by and large, has an enormously lofty opinion of itself.
Well that's not really an argument for anything. Just because this forum is overwhelmingly pro-Remain doesn't mean pro-Leave arguments aren't welcome here, and there certainly must be some good arguments in favour of Leave for a majority of the country to vote that way.
Probably.
(Maybe.)
Besides you forgot Trumpets, how could you forget Trumpets!
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I'm somewhat curious as to what you think is going well about the whole affair, to be honest. I mean, I'd like to see which of the three statements following you disagree with:
1. It is increasingly unlikely we will be able to get access to the single market or financial passport without accepting freedom of movement.
2. If we reject access to the single market/financial passport, the economy will suffer.
3. If we accept the single market/financial passport, we will be in exactly the same situation as we were before Brexit, but with less say.
I'm really not sure as to what the advantages are supposed to be at this point? That seems to me a pretty good qualification for foolish, but feel free to respond.
Royal_Phalanx
Member
There was a time when I briefly supported brexit because of how the EU were austerity hawks. And also TTIP and the firearm directive which would have banned airsoft Europe wide if they didn't compromise. That was a year ago. Immigration never was an issue for me. I support free movement of workers because there are opportunities for all to work and live in another country if you are employable and have the desire to do it, as opposed to strict points based systems where you have to be involved in a narrow bunch of career fields or no chance (New Zealand is pretty flexible though). Pretty much why I am opposed to a strict labour migration policy, though I want more vetting for refugees (but to treat them all like humans unlike Australia) to stop terrorism.
QuicheFontaine
Member
At least you put effort into your cheeky ad homs Crab
Anyway yes "at this point" we haven't left. People in this thread are so keen to say it in this thread I'm surprised you forgot! How can we have any advantages of Brexit before we leave?
I supported Brexit before, and what has substantively changed since before the referendum? Not much as far as I can see, so why would my opinion have changed? At least I'm consistent.
With respect to point 2 above, I'm prepared to accept that the economy will suffer. I'm not an econo..man... like you, but the economy seems like a precarious thing at the best of times. There might be some short term pain, but I say its worth it to reorient ourselves as a country. The world's turning, and it feels like the EU's had its day - declining in relevance, declining in global share of GDP. May as well get out now rather than go down with the ship.
At least you put effort into your cheeky ad homs Crab
Anyway yes "at this point" we haven't left. People in this thread are so keen to say it in this thread I'm surprised you forgot! How can we have any advantages of Brexit before we leave?
I supported Brexit before, and what has substantively changed since before the referendum? Not much as far as I can see, so why would my opinion have changed? At least I'm consistent.
With respect to point 2 above, I'm prepared to accept that the economy will suffer. I'm not an econo..man... like you, but the economy seems like a precarious thing at the best of times. There might be some short term pain, but I say its worth it to reorient ourselves as a country. The world's turning, and it feels like the EU's had its day - declining in relevance, declining in global share of GDP. May as well get out now rather than go down with the ship.
Should I laugh or should I cry.
I don't know.
Drive-by shitposters can't be counted on as a participants.
Royal_Phalanx
Member
Lol at the idea of the EU being a sinking ship.
Quiche Fontaine is the most noble of creatures. Settling for a lifetime of pain for the
It's interesting how the same facts strengthen my belief in European unification while they stimulate anti-European sentiments in you. I feel that the rise or return to greatness of various powers in the world that possess vast lands with huge populations gives us extra reason to reassess our place in the world as well. I can't however come to any conclusion that would lead me to oppose European unification based on that, quite the contrary. Would my position and that of my nation in the world be strengthened by standing alone? Would my voice be heard more loudly if my nation stood alone and isolated rather than as part of a larger union?
I also often ask myself, the people who suggest individual European nations are 'stronger apart' or similar, do they also believe that, say, Jiangsu would be better off parting ways with China were they given the option? Do they believe their position in the world would be strengthened? Their voice more loudly heard?
Yes, the world is turning, but it is turning toward a situation where nations with populations in the hundreds of millions are increasingly running the show. I see no reason to believe that process will stop either. It doesn't seem sensible to believe that the relative decline of the West even can be stopped.
QuicheFontaine
Member
I don't think you should get depressed about it! It's out of our hands really.
This is exactly how I feel.
Royal_Phalanx
Member
This uncertainty wouldn't exist if this stupid fucking referendum wasn't held in the first place. Fuck you David Cameron.
At least you put effort into your cheeky ad homs Crab
Anyway yes "at this point" we haven't left. People in this thread are so keen to say it in this thread I'm surprised you forgot! How can we have any advantages of Brexit before we leave?
I supported Brexit before, and what has substantively changed since before the referendum? Not much as far as I can see, so why would my opinion have changed? At least I'm consistent.
With respect to point 2 above, I'm prepared to accept that the economy will suffer. I'm not an econo..man... like you, but the economy seems like a precarious thing at the best of times. There might be some short term pain, but I say its worth it to reorient ourselves as a country. The world's turning, and it feels like the EU's had its day - declining in relevance, declining in global share of GDP. May as well get out now rather than go down with the ship.
You know what else is declining in the global share of GDP? The entire western world. Less developed regions growing at quicker rate than mature economies shocker.
If you look at the world, economies and countries are banding together in trade blocs to offset the negotiation deficit they face when dealing with the likes of the EU, US and China (MERCOSUR, PICTA, EAC, ASEAN), the UK is bucking this trend to go alone in search of the best deals. Although if you take a look at the list of the RTA's the deals which are getting getting done are where bigger countries set dicate terms to smaller ones. As the 6th largest economy in the world we'd have some leverage but our utter desperation is going to offset that leverage.
There was a lot of misguided Brexiter talk about how the EU was so slow and unable to complete trade deals, if you look at the WTO's list of RTA's then no entity has as many RTA's as the EU (not the US, not China, not Russia, not Canada) http://rtais.wto.org/UI/PublicAllRTAList.aspx
It seems silly to throw all those agreements out in a fit of pique, especially when the landscape is moving away from free trade deals in general back to very protectionist principles. It's even sillier when you consider the UK's ever growing reliance on services exports and how next to impossible getting a good services free trade agreement is at the best of times. The common market was particularly imperfect as a services agreement but it remains by some clear margin the most comprehensive and total service FTA the world has seen. We're not going to be able to replicate that access with anyone else
I'm not exactly sure how we're meant to re-orientate ourselves as an economy. We're a services driven economy like most of the rest of the western world. The manufacturing sectors aren't coming back, or if they do they're going to be so automated that they'll provide little employment. Focusing on high quality engineering would require significant investment in our educational sectors, and essentially a sea change in how we fund businesses. We're going to continue to be reliant on the services sector, so we walk away from the largest and most comprehensive services market in the world in an attempt to replicate similar access piece meal with individual countries despite there being no real example of similar success despite multiple countries trying for years to negotiate deals? Seems like madness to me.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Oh, I meant now.
It's not.
Theonik
Member
Is this a serious question? The EU won't allow its financial centre to be out of its jurisdiction. That would be insane. They will do everything in their power to either strip London of its power or take it under their control by imposing strict rules under which UK based banks can trade services with the EU. They have all the initiative in this to force London's hand in at least making it so they NEED to have the majority of their EU trade in the EU.
Yeah, I'm surprised anyone would think so. I mean, obviously pro-European posters are in the majority because on an international forum you're more likely to find internationalists, and GAF of course also skews heavily towards young people who tend to be less reactionary in their beliefs. GAF is more than large enough however that there are plenty of exceptions.
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