There was a young fellow from Ankara
Who was a terrific wankerer
Awkwaaaaard.
but does he wank with the right hand?
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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM
- Thread starter Hasney
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but does he wank with the right hand?
Frankfurter
Member
Even if the Eurozone pretty much collapses due to the German banking sector exploding (which is quite a stretch, to say the least), why would the EU accept such a deal? It doesn't have any reason to do so. The argument again seems to boil down to "EU has sth. to lose, so they won't gamble", although it's the UK that has far, far, far more to lose. It's economy is pretty much doomed (massive recession + hundreds of thousands lost jobs) if it doesn't get a proper free trade deal with the EU.
jufonuk
not tag worthy
I like to think the French aren't as gullible as some of the people in the UK. but having said that reasons as to why the UK voted to leave have a range of spectrum's from "I see your point, and yeah I defend your right to vote" all the way to "what the fuck?? , you are lucky that a lot of bodily functions are autonomous, because I don't see how you are alive "
Nicktendo86
Member
Because the Eurozone economy is in such a fragile state, still has pockets of mass unemployment and if a domino topples over the whole continent could collapse. The EU has a lot to lose if a deal isn't struck.
Would it be bad for the UK economy if tariffs go up? Yes. Would it be a disaster on the scale you imagine? No, I don't think it would. But it is in the mutual interest of both parties to make a decent deal, the only thing stopping the EU is politics as other states might question why they can't get such a deal if they also left. It is a fascinating scenario coming up though, and the upcoming German and French election complicate things.
But at the end of the day I don't think anyone knows for certain what will happen.
Heck I'd vote for him (lol)
Royal_Phalanx
Member
If the Conservatives really were the pro-business party they wouldn't leave the single market. Theresa May and the 3 Brexiters are pretty much ideological fanatics at this point, though. It's emerged that Theresa May has altered the content of a pre referendum report on immigration because she didn't like the conclusion (which she has had a habit of doing).
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...o-alter-immigration-report-before-brexit-vote
So yeah, Theresa May is a Brexiter if this is true.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...o-alter-immigration-report-before-brexit-vote
So yeah, Theresa May is a Brexiter if this is true.
The first thing that happened when the Deutsche Bank news came out, was the pound dropping against the Euro.
Aside from the obvious ideologues, it's almost impossible to gauge any of their real opinions on Brexit. All we know for a fact is they wanted to hang onto leadership under any circumstances, even if hedging their bets came at a great cost to the country. Just look at Cameron's gambit - UKIP were barely ever a real threat and yet he offered up the referendum at the first sign of trouble.
RedSparrows
Member
Conservatives: casually introducing radical change since 1979.
I've always been a leftie, but I have a mite of sympathy for certain proper old school Tory ideas. Some, I say.
I've always been a leftie, but I have a mite of sympathy for certain proper old school Tory ideas. Some, I say.
Hasn't it got boring constantly predicting the collapse of the Euro and being wrong?
Royal_Phalanx
Member
Man, imagine if Cameron had a backbone. Then our continued EU membership would be guaranteed. Now the centrists are fucked.
I've long sympathized with the traditional conservative ideal that the government should stay out of your personal life, and that government should only be involved in the most important things like healthcare and other services (and maintain personal freedoms and liberty). Not that Theresa May believes in those things though.
I've long sympathized with the traditional conservative ideal that the government should stay out of your personal life, and that government should only be involved in the most important things like healthcare and other services (and maintain personal freedoms and liberty). Not that Theresa May believes in those things though.
smudge
Member
Boris is a smart man pretending to be an idiot
Trump is an idiot pretending to be smart
Frankfurter
Member
I just don't get this line of thinking. Almost half of the UKs trade is with the European Union. Fragile Eurozone or not, the UK will be in a recession the very day it loses free trade with the European Union. Feel free to quote me on that.
Your last part about a decent deal is fair enough. The thing is that what you consider a decent deal and what the EU considers a decent deal might be two totally different things. The EU simply can't give the UK a "good" deal, certainly not one that is better than staying in the EU, because that would put it in a position where every member would have a very good reason to leave.
But, but German cars!
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...trous-for-jobs-says-jaguar-land-a7334991.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...trous-for-jobs-says-jaguar-land-a7334991.html
There's a difference there.
Like what?
Audioboxer
Member
Survey - http://survey2016.scot
Please vote, the survey is largely based around gathering interest for an independence referendum.
Survey - http://survey2016.scot
Please vote, the survey is largely based around gathering interest for an independence referendum.
until the polls show a clear gap for independence (which they don't at all) this is all hot air really.....
jufonuk
not tag worthy
Survey - http://survey2016.scot
Please vote, the survey is largely based around gathering interest for an independence referendum.
if we are all Scotland's voice, can I be one too even if I am English and work in London but live in Kent?
Sounds like she's trying to build support more than anything else.
Audioboxer
Member
What is hot air? Addressing a nation that voted overwhelming in favour of remain? I wouldn't call that hot air. I'd say arguing about seats on trains and dragging feet around seemingly not having a clue how to handle brexit, hot air. Where is the governments survey and interaction with leave voters to garner interest in what they want post brexit?
Independence is an offshoot of that. Why? Because anyone with a brain knows it's the only way we retain EU membership. Every other wording is just being careful until the UK sorts out whatever the fuck this brexit deal is going to be. I'm convinced no matter what discussing happened behind closed doors with the EU Sturgeon was told when the UK leaves Scotland does too unless independent.
The population at large need convincing though hence the effort to collect data and convince. This was a survey pack sent to me with about 10 freepost surveys inside, but obviously I'll encourage people to do it online for ease of access. I'd encourage you to go look at the questions before dismissing it. Most are about the EU.
PJV3
Member
The best chance for a free Scotland is in the first few years after the UK leaves the EU, i'm sure she knows getting the timing right is important and not pushing too hard and too early.
Yeah I just don't understand the "hot air" complaint. She isn't saying Scotland is leaving or even (explicitly) that they should leave, just that it's an option she wants people to talk about.
The only way thats hot air is if you think independence is literally impossible, in any time frame.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I think if I were Sturgeon, my main focus would be on blocking or delaying Brexit, though. Scoxit is better if the UK remains in the single market, because then Scotland is also in the single market with the UK. Scotland and the UK being in different economic markets would be disastrous - 46% of the UK's trade is with Europe, but if you treat Scotland as its own country, 68% of Scotland's trade is with the rUK. So if she can't stop a hard Brexit, then Scoxit means an indyScot outside the EU by necessity, which I think is much less palatable.
Also, if you can block or delay Brexit, that's a pretty huge accomplishment which I think would cement her position in Scotland even more so, and really help with her case. So I think her main aim will just be to act as a rallying point for Remainers across the United Kingdom and not just in Scotland, threaten to bring legal suits like the one being brought in Northern Ireland about whether it is even possible for the UK to leave without consent of the devolved administrations, offer to form a coalition with whichever UK parties oppose Brexit (this one is especially great for the SNP because it fucks over Labour even more, and the SNP benefit massively from an even more irrelevant Labour party), and so on.
This survey seems like a step towards that to me. Challenge the Conservatives with the tonnes of people in Scotland who think it's bloody stupid; and argue she has a huge mandate because she actually asked everyone whereas May can't even tell anyone what Brexit means.
From all I have seen Sturgeon doing since the Brexit, she seems very calculated and doesn't seem to rush into independence just for the sake of it. She played well her hand until now. She seem more decent and level-headed than many other British politicians.
Does it? There were earlier rumblings that Scotland could negotiate direct entry into the EU during a combined Brexit/Scoxit.
insert something about Spain veto + Gilbrater/Catalonia
Sturgeon appears to smartly be laying the groundwork to immediately call for another independence referendum once Article 50 is invoked and then wrap that up to negotiate staying in the EU before Brexit is complete
Edit: If Sturgeon/Scotland actually had the power to stop Brexit then there wouldn't have been any desire for independence in the first place. Sturgeon could certainly try any manuever as a rallying point for all the English Remainers, and I think she has the political skill to succeed at tha,t but that would be winning the battle and losing the war. It's simply better for Scotland's long term interest to be an independent nation instead of bowing to Torie governments
Royal_Phalanx
Member
My esteem for Sturgeon would rise if she did all that she can to stop or massively water down Brexit. I agree that she should form an anti Brexit coalition where Labour is failing. I could answer this survey even though I don't live in Scotland. I feel if Brexit is carried out it is in the best interest for the UK to break up. This division cannot be mended. I can say everyone I know is outraged by the idea of losing the single market and free movement. A lot of young people probably will be angry at Brexit because of fewer job prospects and the loss of our European job opportunities. It will never be the same again between the two camps.
Audioboxer
Member
She would look like the biggest hypocrite ever talking about wanting the Scottish peoples decision to go ahead whilst on the other hand blocking the English peoples decision. Yeah I know Brexit sucks but the population of England did vote for it. Sturgeons place is to do as she is, focussing on the people she is elected to represent, not stepping over boundaries to undemocratically railroad others minority/majority decisions. She has a tough road ahead of her but I think all things considered she is handling it well so far.
I can empathise but boy if you think some English hate the SNP just now for being pro breaking up the Union I don't think we'd be able to handle an SNP hated for preventing Brexit happening across the whole country. As much as I don't want Brexit I also can't help say the choice is made, voters will have to die in that grave now and forever remember how politics isn't a pissing in the wind decision and requires great thought, debate and reasoning.
I agree more with Crab than Blackhead, i don't expect a desire for Yes to Independence to immediately happen after A50, we still don't know what the hell will happen. Planning to launch a bid for independence immediately after invoking it is a dumb move, Sturgeon will only do it when she knows she wins. No way will that be a certainty at that point.
Outside of Scotland, I'm wondering if a snap election is the best move for the Tories right now because I don't think Theresa May has been good since becoming PM and that new shine will wear off eventually. Best take advantage of getting a bigger majority when it's looking good.
Maybe the boundary changes delay this?
Outside of Scotland, I'm wondering if a snap election is the best move for the Tories right now because I don't think Theresa May has been good since becoming PM and that new shine will wear off eventually. Best take advantage of getting a bigger majority when it's looking good.
Maybe the boundary changes delay this?
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
No, I'm saying: it would be sheer idiocy for an independent Scotland to join the EU if the rUK isn't in the single market. I don't think any Scottish politician would genuinely do it (although admittedly I thought that about British politicians and Brexit, but Scotland seems to currently have a better breed of politician).
The reason leaving the EU is bad is because it removes the UK from a single market accounting for 46% of exports, and instead means the UK is subject to the tariffs, quotas, and other restrictions the EU puts on it.
If indyScot is in the EU, and the UK is outside of it, then indyScot has to trade with the UK on EU terms. As we know, very well by now, those terms are looking like they'll be rather bad. That means if indyScot joins the EU, it takes indyScot out of a single market accounting for 68%(!!) of exports, and instead means indyScot is subject to the tariffs, quotas, and other restrictions that the UK puts on EU goods (which the UK will definitely have to do).
If the UK does a hard Brexit, and Scotland becomes independent, the best thing Scotland can do from an economic perspective is make a really good trade agreement with the UK. This would be more valuable for Scotland, economically, than entering the EU - and these things are mutually exclusive at this point. That's how geography works, unfortunately. So I think it is unlikely an independent Scotland in the hard Brexit timeline even wants to join the EU. It simply wouldn't be in Scotland's interests.
So that's what I mean when I say it is massively in Sturgeon's interests Brexit doesn't happen. Because if the UK stays in the single market, Scotland can trade with the UK in a single market AND the EU in a single market. Which means you don't have a terrible decision to make like the one above.
EDIT: Incidentally, the above is why Ireland will probably be the UK's best friend. The UK is 33% of Ireland's exports, the rest of the EU is 34%. The UK leaving the single market will be a donkey kick to the balls for the Irish economy, and they'll be pretty keen that we get a good deal, unlike Germany who won't actually care that much. Despite this, you never hear Brexiteers talking about cozying up to Irish breweries.
Disagree. If the choice is between EU and UK then EU would be the more valuable choice [after a painful/difficult transition as Scotland weens itself of UK]
Ken Clarke keeps dropping the truth bombs.
http://news.sky.com/story/ken-clarke-says-theresa-mays-government-not-first-idea-on-brexit-10597851
http://news.sky.com/story/ken-clarke-says-theresa-mays-government-not-first-idea-on-brexit-10597851
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Economically, this just isn't true. Do you remember all the Brexiteers saying "if the choice is between the EU and Canada/Australia/the US, then Canada/Australia/the US would be the more valuable choice, once we've managed the painful process of weaning the UK off the EU"? And how everyone pointed they were fucking barmy because the EU is half the UK's export markets, and you can't wean yourself off the EU without physically dragging the United Kingdom into the middle of the Pacific? The argument is exactly the same for Scotland... except even more so. The rUK is two-thirds of Scotland's exports - it's over twice as large a destination as the EU is.
If you opposed Brexit on economic grounds but support an independent Scotland in Brexitworld joining the EU on economic grounds, you're either a hypocrite or don't really understand what's going on.
PJV3
Member
I don't see article 50 being the spark for Scottish independence, it is just more uncertainty. the English ignoring Scotland, getting a bad deal and the economy tanking after we leave seems the best chance to me, anger and unemployment.
i get what Crab is saying, i just think emotion can sway opinion.
i get what Crab is saying, i just think emotion can sway opinion.
travisbickle
Member
That's very harsh on Theresa May's lack of foresight. She did stand in front of a slogan that said "for a better future" that just can't be totally meaningless?
Just to add, there is absolutely no way the government will agree to another binding referendum on Scottish independence whilst Brexit is happening. Brexit along is the single biggest most complicated legal, financial and diplomatic problem ever tackled by countries - it is literally impossible for that to take place at the same time as also untangling Scotland from the rest of the UK.
Any notion that Scotland could become independent and shift immediately into the EU at the same time just isn't feasible, on any level, purely for practical reasons.
Any notion that Scotland could become independent and shift immediately into the EU at the same time just isn't feasible, on any level, purely for practical reasons.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Oh, for sure. I could see a Scottish populist sentiment saying "fuck the English, we're joining the EU anyway" in a post-independence Scotland; the same sort of sentiment that powered Brexit in the UK. I just think that Nicola Sturgeon is a better class of politician than David Cameron and that the Scots have shown more resilience against populism. I think if Scotland did become independent, Sturgeon would know that the first thing to do is reach a trade agreement with rUK.
Also, we might get to hear Lizzie say "Would you like a trade agreement with England?", which would make everything worth it.
Nicktendo86
Member
This is just not true, over 60% of Scotland's exports go to the UK compared to just 15% to the EU.
Considering the SNP's landslide victory I'm going to say no, the loss of the center ground is very much a UK-wide thing.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Found the exact figures online after a bit of Googlefu:
http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/Exports/ESSPublication
To be precise, for 2014, rUK was 64% of Scottish exports, EU 15%, US, Canada and Mexico combined 6%, and every other bloc below 5%.
http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/Exports/ESSPublication
To be precise, for 2014, rUK was 64% of Scottish exports, EU 15%, US, Canada and Mexico combined 6%, and every other bloc below 5%.
Right now yes. However EU is fundamentally a bigger market, and UK's will shrink even more once they leave the EU. Also there's an opportunity for Scotland to take UK's place as the English speaking** entrant to the continent, great timezone etc. The better bet is on the EU imo
**
insert har har nobody understands the scottish accent 'joke'
The problem she has is that she has 3 heavy weight politicians all now slugging it out... Boris, Fox, Davis
These are all big personalities with differing ideas, it is no wonder an consensus can not be agreed upon
Hard Brexit, you fuck up London
Soft Brexit, you fuck up everything, and Farage will come charging back in on his white horse
Nicktendo86
Member
Scotland is a unique case really, the SNP are doing so well as they are the only pro independence party so the almost 50% of the population who are pro indy can just rally around them, whereas the other half of the country are fragmented between Labour, the Tories etc so the SNP gobble up a massive share of the vote.
Recent polls however have Sturgeon's personal ratings taking a bit of a dip so I wonder if the public are getting a bit sick and tired of the constant Indy bang drumming and just want the SNP to get on and govern. Polls show that since the EU ref support for Independence has gone down again so I guess people just want to see what happens.
It's a tight balancing act tough, I certainly wouldn't want to be the PM who has to get a good Brexit deal, keep the union together and keep the Conservative party together. No wonder Cameron ducked it, the wimp.
Edit:
Blackhead said:
I dunno, the gap between trade with the EU and UK is vast, no prediction or report I've seen from before the EU ref or after, including the most dire scenario imagined in the Treasury report, would suggest that the UK economy would shrink to the extend that the market for Scotland would decrease by that amount. The EU economy is hardly rosey anyway, it has basically stagnated since the crash in 08 and I don't see it suddenly recovering post Brexit.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Let's suppose the UK's demand for Scottish exports halves, and that the EU's demand for Scottish exports doubles. Guess what: the rUK would actually still account for a larger portion of Scotland's exports than the EU would! And we're already having to push ourselves deeply into fantasy land to get here; the UK will get hit by Brexit hard, but its import propensity isn't going to half, the EU is growing, but at current growth rates it will take about 142 years before the EU's export propensity has doubled.
Again, this is Brexit talk. It's like saying: the United States is a bigger market than the EU, we're better off negotiating with the US. Well, no: trade is more than just a matter of who's biggest. You trade more with your neighbours because transportation costs are lower, you trade more with people you share a language with because it makes it easier providing services, and so on.
Want to understand trade? Think gravity: size and distance matter. Scotland-UK is greater than Scotland-EU. Jupiter is big, but the moon moves tides.
No shit but EU is not that far. This isn't like swapping EU for Australia as some Brexiters were suggesting.
Ireland is a useful example. Britain is not Ireland's most lucrative EU trading partner - Belgium is. I would bet on a similar future for Scotland
Nicktendo86
Member
I just don't see it, as Crab says there would have to be a monumental shift in balance for what you are suggesting to happen, but hey ho.
In other news, the German finance ministry has calculated that post Brexit Germany will have to pay an extra 4.5 billion a year in contributions in 19/20.
Those €4.5B representing about 0.3% of total government expenditures, I think they can probably handle that.
Nicktendo86
Member
Oh, no doubt.
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