Hahaha Boris is not stupid guys, try not to underestimate him.
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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM
- Thread starter Hasney
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Hahaha Boris is not stupid guys, try not to underestimate him.
Why do people keep saying this?
PdotMichael
Banned
So far away appear the days when the UK was suposed to become the largest economy in Europe.
Meanwhile Germany is on the way of having the strongest growth this year for 5 years. That will put pressure on them for any incoming Brexit negotiation.
Meanwhile Germany is on the way of having the strongest growth this year for 5 years. That will put pressure on them for any incoming Brexit negotiation.
Also should be minded that with Nissan asking for compensation to continue investment - non Brexit voters will likely not be happy their tax monies going to keep Brexiters in jobs they endangered.
WhateverItTakes
Banned
Fuuuucks sake. We don't even have the competent conservatives on Brexit, just their insane cast offs.
<brexiter logic> no you see that because Germany is growing so quickly, that just means they're selling more to the UK, and as we all know if someone is selling you stuff you need you've got them by the short and curlies, and they'll be singing rule britannia or we'll send the gun boats in (both of them). We used to rule the world you know. Totally won two world wars No dogs, no blacks, no irish. </brexiter logic>
Two world wars and one world cup thank you very much.
So the Brexiter strategy is to bet the house on the EU collapsing. They stall on formally exiting as long as possible in the hope that continued pressure over immigration will result in the EU folding at which point they believe they'll have a tactical advantage because the banks will still be in London. If the EU goes away there's no reason for them to move. But the risk is that the longer the UK stalls the more uncertainty mounts and eventually there will be a breaking point.
Were.
Deutsche Bank will end that. Even if they settle on ~5 Billion USD in fines (probably will be more) they'll be under intense pressure. They'll be lucky to survive the rest of the year without a Bailout or Bail-In - smart money is already shifting away from them.
Other German banks have already started layoffs.
Funny enough if the UK can avoid any major bank collapses they'll be in better condition with any negotiations. The UK will just be lucky in that case but of course the politicans will never admit that.
The Tory party will tear itself apart before then. We're already starting to see it with Osborne, Morgan and Sowbry speaking up. The Cameroons are still a large part of the party, they're quieter than the frothing nutjobs on the far right, but they're more directly connected to the business people who fund the party, and those business people by and large aren't happy with what they're hearing. Politics is one thing but this is money we're talking about.
People have overestimated May (she really only survived as Home Secretary because Cameron didn't like to sack folk), she did some short term fire fighting as PM, but it was clear that Brexit means Brexit is such a vacuous term that it wasn't going to be able fill the months of vacuum before the UK gets it's negotiation position in order. Especially with the 3 monkeys she's put in charge unable to keep their mouth shut.
Frankfurter
Member
Growth forecasts were lifted like... 2 days ago, when the Deutsche Bank situation was well on its way already.
Between that particular bunch of mouthbreathing knucklefucks and the reports on how German politicians had to practically drag the car maker CEOs to the US to avoid even more damage after Dieselgate, I'm beginning to think German high ranking CEOs are either aliens or double agents. That shit has got to be on purpose.
Sigh. At least Johnson and his ilk are somewhat entertaining sociopaths.
PdotMichael
Banned
That are delusions though.
City warning of threat to 70,000 jobs without Brexit trade arrangement
Now repeat after me
Everything is gonna be alright
Now repeat after me
Everything is gonna be alright
But we took back control. It doesn't matter if they lose their jobs, our children's children will thank us when they no longer have to refer to Christmas as winter festive holiday . Here's hoping for a white Christmas!
Do you really think Boris is a stupid guy?
Orniletter
Banned
Don't worry, just look up a few posts above, Deutsche Bank is about to implode ( Merkel will allow that to happen !) and drag Germany with it, which will....somehow....improve the UK's bargaining position...if no british bank falters in the next couple of years (?).
jufonuk
not tag worthy
lol the conservatives won't want to lose the city
SporeCrawler
Member
pfft 70 000 jobs. you have sovereignity thats a higher good (frankfurt will gladly gobble up that jobs)
Deutsche Bank is way bigger than Lehmann. If Deutsche Bank implodes that will be our next world recession. So Schadenfreude is a bit misplaced. Or is the mantra "Fuck it, everything will be fine" so good?
Forecast don't mean shit when you've lost confidence in management. Deutsche Bank was known as a problem years ago with their derivative exposure and overvalued book (https://www.ft.com/content/f9d4d8e8-03b2-11e5-b55e-00144feabdc0) .The Euro debt crisis was never solved, just the media thought it was just solved with Greece.
It's a cultural problem, similar to Japan.
Lol Johnson would be a horrible UK PM. Actually tbh you guys don't have any PM material. Dw we in Australia are in the same boat.
No delusion I assure you. This was happening regardless of Brexit. The fines just made people check DB's financials closer than usual.
She won't let it implode hence why I mentioned the Bail-in/out.
Its a global systemic bank its too big to fail. Merkel would sooner endorse Trump than let that happen.
It improves the UK position since Germany would need to continue to trade as much as possible to prevent DB dragging down economic growth.
UK banks aren't safe either although not to the extent of DB. They'd fall only if DB falls without any support such as bailouts. Of course, most banks in the EU (world?) would be in trouble in that case.
Pretty much world depression since we'd be in BASEL 4 which would reduce Global growth. Every systemic bank would be under the microscope and record profits would be a thing of the past. Lending would dry up.
Because it is true. My uncle use to be a mp for the Tories and knew Boris. He is a very intelligent man that puts on a act.
If it implodes, so will every bank in Europe and across the Atlantic. No bank will be safe.
ClosingADoor
Member
PJV3
Member
I think he meant everyone knows he is putting on an act, some people find it amusing, others don't.
You can be clever, speak Latin and be a completely selfish berk unfit to represent a country.
As true as this is, it doesn't negate the fact that the man has said and done some incredibly stupid things of late. Most would agree that the referendum was political posturing on his part and it backfired when the leave vote actually won.
He's not as dumb as people think he is, nor is he as smart as he thinks he is.
Frankfurter
Member
The Deutsche Bank situation was known before the forecasts were raised. Whatever kind of problem Deutsche Bank may or may not pose is already factored into the forecast (the most realistic outcome, anyway).
I don't see how this makes the EU bargaining position significantly weaker versus the UK. The old "Germany wants to continue to trade with the UK" is true the other way around, too. The only difference being that the UK wants to continue with the EU (which is almost half of its trade), while for Germany the UK is less than 10%. This is still big btw., but it would also come with potential gains for Germany (Germany is very big in manufacturing and would probably be one of the countries that would benefit from UK based companies leaving for continental Europe in a hard-Brexit case; see also financial passporting which would help cities like Paris, Amsterdam, Frankfurt etc.)
PdotMichael
Banned
So much about the EU domino theory.
KonradLaw
Member
In a way UK crashing and burning while exiting EU might do more good for the union than anything UK did while inside it.
Don't be so sure, people are people, if things do not go well for the EU, that same survey will look very different 5 years from now, even less if Greece or any other country needs a huge bailout. With the UK out, Germany is going to have to carry more weight which could cause problems at home, I doubt even Merkel would take any chances.
PdotMichael
Banned
UK isn't in the Euro zone. So any bailouts for countries like Greece would be done without the UK anyway.
jufonuk
not tag worthy
It was all part of the master plan . Fall on our sword.In a way UK crashing and burning while exiting EU might do more good for the union than anything UK did while inside it.
Fuck ourselves up to act as an example.
We will be looked after but we had to do this. We are europes Rorschach to the doctor manhattan of the EU.
Still. Netherlands leaving the EU would be INSANE.
The domino effect depends completely in how the Brexit is turning. That's the reason why I don't expect EU to be especially nice to UK when negociating terms of the new trade agreements.
Royal_Phalanx
Member
I don't think Brexit will be an amazing success even if things do end up going well. Certainly not enough to make other countries leave the EU. At best Brexit will be neutral in the long term, I feel, and definitely not worth leaving the EU for little gain.
Starwolf_UK
Member
The average person who voted probably thinks fuck those rich lazy bankers and their big bonuses so couldn't be happier with this news.
Isn't RBS fine
d
He's smart but talks out his arse like most politicians . He just isn't afraid to say what he thinks which makes it worse.
We got our country back.
lol
PdotMichael
Banned
How in the world can turn Brexit out in a good way for the UK?
Taking back control, innit.
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