Half the damn Leave literature I received (and I got a lot of the stuff) touted Norway and Switzerland as the dream options
The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM
- Thread starter Hasney
- Start date
- Status
Half the damn Leave literature I received (and I got a lot of the stuff) touted Norway and Switzerland as the dream options
JonnyDBrit
Member
Turns out Brexit will be sponsored by the Nintendo Switch.
Johnson even said stuff like we needed to vote Leave so we could negotiate the terms of our EU membership better, ergo vote leave to remain.
jufonuk
not tag worthy
baldrick means baldrick
anonymous_abc
Member
AFAIK Liam Fox was the 'genius' suggesting that the UK should drop all tariffs.
So, yeah - trade would be fine... just 'lack of jobs' would be a bit of an issue.
Royal_Phalanx
Member
The UK does a huge bulk of their trade with the rest of Europe and very little with Australia, etc. Tariffs aren't that much of a barrier when companies and individuals want to import things you really want from other countries, so I don't think leaving will increase it that much with other countries.
There are serious structural problems in the UK that weren't solved before that weren't caused by the EU, namely the lack of good jobs (the UK has excelled in creating shitty low paid jobs, mostly), chronic underinvestment and too many people are in poverty, have bad living standards and just barely live on from day to day. The EU didn't have much impact on the policies of the government, because the UK could always make their own laws and has always been sovereign. In fact the EU has dumped money into the poorer regions of the country. Funding that will go if we go through with this nonsense.
I hope we stay in the single market, get some token restrictions on free movement like no benefits at all for 5 years for a non-citizen like Germany, you can only live here for 3 months without a job (it was always the case, you can pretend it's something new given how uninformed a lot of people are about the issue) has recently done, so you can satisfy the mandate, look towards the future instead of to the past , as May herself has said and not make the economy take an unnecessary hit.
There are serious structural problems in the UK that weren't solved before that weren't caused by the EU, namely the lack of good jobs (the UK has excelled in creating shitty low paid jobs, mostly), chronic underinvestment and too many people are in poverty, have bad living standards and just barely live on from day to day. The EU didn't have much impact on the policies of the government, because the UK could always make their own laws and has always been sovereign. In fact the EU has dumped money into the poorer regions of the country. Funding that will go if we go through with this nonsense.
I hope we stay in the single market, get some token restrictions on free movement like no benefits at all for 5 years for a non-citizen like Germany, you can only live here for 3 months without a job (it was always the case, you can pretend it's something new given how uninformed a lot of people are about the issue) has recently done, so you can satisfy the mandate, look towards the future instead of to the past , as May herself has said and not make the economy take an unnecessary hit.
DarthMasta
Member
That's great, but unless there's some fundamental shift in the way the UK views the EU, a few more years of the media and politicians blaming everything that's wrong on the EU and people will vote in a government that will hard Brexit.
IMO, and I'm talking out of a position of ignorance, being a dirty southern continental and all, but people are people, if everyone keeps telling people that the fault of their misery lies with group or organization X, and eventually people will believe it.
Yep.
Unfortunately the time for her to be a respectable stateswomen, and not a craven self-interested politician, was back during the referendum campaign.
She hid her true concerns and feelings to make the most personal political capital of whatever the outcome was.
How much flak will she catch for this from the electorate? I'd like to think the people could make an example of her here, but I have my doubts.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37773224
BBC Scotland said:
Seems like Sturgeon is trying for us at least!
Pancake Mix
Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Ultimately, I think most voters knew that this likely meant leaving the single market, only a fool would have thought otherwise.
But the illegal migrants were confused by some voters for having the same rights as EU citizens within the EU, ignoring the permanent opt-out from Schengen which is why those (non-EU) economic migrants were thankfully stopped at Calais.
I expect some Bregret from naive leave voters but that's not the point. You don't get to vote on these things over and over again until you get the result you want.
But the illegal migrants were confused by some voters for having the same rights as EU citizens within the EU, ignoring the permanent opt-out from Schengen which is why those (non-EU) economic migrants were thankfully stopped at Calais.
I expect some Bregret from naive leave voters but that's not the point. You don't get to vote on these things over and over again until you get the result you want.
Then they were arguing in bad faith though. A lot of the arguments were "we will still have single market access by other means". So they didn't care about the future of their country, only about winning.
You're being very generous. This is a voter base which includes people who googled 'what is the EU?' after the result.
I think the likely truth of the matter is that the majority of voters (on both sides) hadn't even heard of the single market, much less knew what it was, until very recently.
Pancake Mix
Copied someone else's pancake recipe
They cared about their vision for the future of the country, just like any politician. That they lied isn't too surprising in and of itself.
Fair enough, but I fail to see how anyone could rationally think we could have our cake and eat it too. The European Union wants to live on and continue with its ideals also, they're not going to budge on what they consider their four freedom, not really.
anonymous_abc
Member
After all this time you still don't think people expect to have their cake and eat it too? Even some decisions makers in the UK seem to believe, want and expect this...
This was the basis of the leave campaign though. At least the parts of it that weren't hateful.
Oh wait, you said rationally.
hydrophilic attack
Member
Even Swedish media has been covering it
Helensmith
Member
That episode was pretty shocking. So many people indignant about winning Brexit, telling politicians who disagreed to quit because they're not "working for the people", booing that Polish lady and it seemed like half the audience supporting Trump.
I think I have found your flawed assumption. People don't think rationally most of the time. (I include myself in that statement btw, it's an inescapable part of being human)
Nissan announce they will build two new car models at plants in Sunderland securing 7000 jobs.
Good news. Hope it lasts and they don't retool in another country eventually.
"following "support and assurances from the UK government".
"Chief executive Carlos Ghosn said last month that Nissan may not invest in the Sunderland plant unless the government guaranteed compensation for costs related to any new trade tariffs resulting from Brexit.
The Sunderland plant built almost one in three cars made in Britain last year, 80% of which were exported.
Hmm, I wonder what the government offered. It's good news but are they going to extend that help to everyone and at what cost. I kinda doubt that.
Good news. Hope it lasts and they don't retool in another country eventually.
"following "support and assurances from the UK government".
"Chief executive Carlos Ghosn said last month that Nissan may not invest in the Sunderland plant unless the government guaranteed compensation for costs related to any new trade tariffs resulting from Brexit.
The Sunderland plant built almost one in three cars made in Britain last year, 80% of which were exported.
Hmm, I wonder what the government offered. It's good news but are they going to extend that help to everyone and at what cost. I kinda doubt that.
Blackthorn
"hello?" "this is vagina"
I see today we're getting another round of the press deliberately conflating economic predictions of Brexit with economic performance after the Brexit vote.
See, they were wrong! The economy hasn't been impacted by the thing that hasn't happened yet!
See, they were wrong! The economy hasn't been impacted by the thing that hasn't happened yet!
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
They don't have to offer a lot. Nissan's brunt is located in the UK and the rest of its production sites across Europe lack capacity. Retooling factories for the next product cycle would be impossible given the lack of time and the fact that Nissan itself didn't account for a Brexit-positive vote. I already predicted this, not unlike most people familiar with the industry. Nissan Europe only manufactures in the UK, Spain and Russia. At this point the Spanish factory is largely a commercial vehicle concern and retooling it for other types of vehicles in short time is probably out of the question. The new X-Trail is coming over from Japan, whereas the Qashqai was already being built in the UK.
What will happen over the next years (unless something drastic happens) is that Nissan will start increasing capacity elsewhere so they can start safely moving production from the UK and hit the ground running by the time tariffs come into play. I'm not sure if I can see Nissan building new plants (Spain cannot take all of Nissan UK's models, that's for sure; it's already Nissan's White Van production centre for the whole Europe) in the short term, but it may lead to the expansion of current ones if Russia doesn't fuck things up really bad.
I know this point has been made many, many times in this thread already but once more from the top...
We still exist in the EU today in the same way as we did before the referendum result. We have not left the EU. Nor have we formally commenced proceedings to leave the EU. As such, it is entirely logical to expect that whatever the true fallout of Brexit looks like (good or bad), it is yet to come.
That aside, I'd be interested to know at what point things like the plummeting currency, rise in the cost of living and 40% spike in hate crimes begins to register as negative consequences in your eyes.
jufonuk
not tag worthy
we..HAVEN'T.. LeFt..Yart!!
jufonuk
not tag worthy
That's movie physics
Blackthorn
"hello?" "this is vagina"
Forecast said there'll be heavy rain next week, yet here I am, bone dry.
Look at the pound and exchange rates this time last year before Brexit was even brought up.
Look at it now. It may not be a total collapse, but our currency is in the toilet post brexit vote and the market is still working as if we haven't left.
I'm being a bit facetious of course, but of course GDP is up, we are enjoying all the same trade benefits we had before, currency is weakened which is good for exports, and there is hardly any inclination of what a post-Brexit UK will look like because nobody can make up their mind
Of course 0.5% increase in GDP doesn't make me feel better when import costs have gone up 18% (my last few USD bills have been an eye opener). But you can't really use these figures to prove anything about Brexit either way, other than to show Cameron was making shit up when he said he'd trigger article 50 immediately and the economy would collapse as a result
Of course 0.5% increase in GDP doesn't make me feel better when import costs have gone up 18% (my last few USD bills have been an eye opener). But you can't really use these figures to prove anything about Brexit either way, other than to show Cameron was making shit up when he said he'd trigger article 50 immediately and the economy would collapse as a result
Nicktendo86
Member
The treasury report was based on a predicted immediate shock to the economy in the event of a leave vote, not in the event of leaving the EU the very next day. The idea that we can dismiss all good data because 'brexit hasn't actually happened yet' is a slight retelling of the referendum campaign. Hell, we were told that even the uncertainty of a referendum was dragging the economy down and yet we had 0.6 growth in Q2 which has actually been revised up today to 0.7.
The Nissan news is also welcome of course and hopefully counters some who have called Sunderland stupid for voting leave. Sounds like more jobs will be added as well with the production of the X-Trail moving over, excellent news.
Obviously the future is uncertain. There will be lots of ups and downs as the negotiations start but those saying the UK is going to be left a smoking pile of rubble are just not right. There is a lot to be optimistic about.
On that we have to disagree. Even if I were to concede that things won't get much worse in many senses of the word as a result of Brexit (I think they will, but for the sake of argument), I categorically cannot believe that Britain will be better off in any meaningful way as a result of leaving the EU vs. remaining a member.
So if, at best, things don't get any worse but don't get any better either, what's the point? What's there to be optimistic about? I appreciate that any scenario that plays out is to the exclusion of other 'what if' scenarios that do not, however I hand-on-heart believe that anyone who thinks Britain will be more prosperous outside of the EU is, frankly, deluded and willfully disregarding the facts of the matter.
The treasury report is literally founded on the assumption that we would trigger Article 50 immediately, which hasn't happened. We still haven't triggered Article 50, and won't for many months. The political reaction (and the Bank's reaction) has generally been to delay the consequences of the vote. We've had a degree of uncertainty which has had an incredible effect on the pound, but we haven't seen many of the direct negative consequences of Brexit yet.
Yep, thank God for the service sector.
Would be a shame if anything were to happen to it...
jufonuk
not tag worthy
I'm expecting the most likely scenario post-brexit to be... things are worse than they probably would have been in an alternate, remain reality, but it will be impossible to really prove that one way or the other (really, think about what a few percentage of GDP over the next few decades would feel like). The other big one being imports getting more expensive
Personally my dislike of Brexit falls in the pie-in-the-sky loss of Britains participation in the European project rather than cold, hard economics... but the country never really seemed to be in it for that anyway
Personally my dislike of Brexit falls in the pie-in-the-sky loss of Britains participation in the European project rather than cold, hard economics... but the country never really seemed to be in it for that anyway
For the bolded, the assumption was that article 50 would be triggered immediately. Which it hasn't been.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
What Rodelero says. We've not done anything yet. We're not even officially leaving yet. Nothing about our economy has changed. Nothing about the economy will change for at least two years, and that's assuming Article 50 is triggered tomorrow. At the moment, all we've done is introduce an enormous amount of uncertainty into future-looking decisions that depend on timescales of longer than 2 years. That's surprisingly few, especially in a service economy.
The Treasury report was written on the basis that the day after a Leave vote, David Cameron would trigger Article 50 (like he said he would during the run-up to the referendum). He didn't. So you can't compare what it predicts with what is happening. Wait until May triggers Article 50. Then we can start comparisons.
The Treasury report was written on the basis that the day after a Leave vote, David Cameron would trigger Article 50 (like he said he would during the run-up to the referendum). He didn't. So you can't compare what it predicts with what is happening. Wait until May triggers Article 50. Then we can start comparisons.
Nicktendo86
Member
Andrew Neil has been arguing with people on twitter over this for a while now, the report doesn't mention anything about in the event of triggering article 50, just in the event of a leave vote.
Cameron inferred he would trigger article 50 the day after a leave vote but no one really believed him, there was no planning for that whatsoever and vote leave said throughout the whole campaign there would be a period of preparation first.
We can't infer anything from today's data about the long term effects of brexit, what we can infer though it that the treasury report, and the vast majority of the short term predictions made before the referendum where complete and utter bollocks.
Crab said:
Was that explicitly mentioned in the report? It says repeatedly that the prediction was of the immediate impact of a vote to leave.
tomtom94 said:
We don't know the details of the deal, if indeed there was one. Word is it is more of an industry thing rather than a deal specific for Nissan.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked