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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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Maledict

Member
As much as people go on about the labour heartlands of the north switching to UKIP, two thirds of labour voted to stay in the EU and they deliver seats in London and the cities.
 

Calabi

Member
Boris is a disgrace. I really don't see how he got this far. I can't believe that he's still trying this whole "But then you'll sell less cake/prosecco/whatever" approach, as if it were smart to begin with.

The thing that annoys me even more is that he thinks its funny. He's doing all this bullshit ruining, the UK's reputation and ability to negotiate. He has his smirking little face on in the PM Questions. You know he's just laughing and having a good old time, doesnt give a shit about any of this. He's going to be fine whatever the case.

When millions of peoples lives are going to be seriously detrimentally affected by his actions. I abhor violence but wish someone would beat the shit out of him.
 
@Maledict: Yup.

The poll above is with a third of voters reporting no opinion or knowledge on Farron, too, so if he turns out to be popular or unpopular, that would obviously swing things.

(Granted, and this is from personal experience, Farron is dead nice, but potentially inexperienced - IDK how he'd handle debates or the campaign trail)

Labour is in this bizarre paradox where they've elected a socialist leadership to serve the rural and town working poor, when most of their voter base is suburban and city-dwelling liberals. So naturally when you throw actual policy quizzes at their voter base, you're seeing significant desync.

So when a pollster asks "who you wanna vote for?" folks say Labour. When they ask hypothetical policy-based questions like the above, that support goes out the window.
 

Rodelero

Member
As much as people go on about the labour heartlands of the north switching to UKIP, two thirds of labour voted to stay in the EU and they deliver seats in London and the cities.

Indeed, and Labour have got to recognise that their stance on Brexit (which, ironically can be defined as "Brexit means Brexit (but we're nicer than the Tories!)" is borderline suicidal.

Oppose Brexit, lock in the two thirds who already voted to Remain, and make up the difference by enticing Conservative remainers and Liberals. It's a feasible plan which sees them continue to represent the best interests of the people they say they represent. Whether it can win an election is debatable, but it is at least debatable. What they are doing right now is doomed to failure. They aren't going to expand their base whatsoever, and they are going to sew so much apathy amongst the parts of their base that voted Remain (i.e. most of it) that they could get absolutely slaughtered.

Wake up Labour. Remain represents over 48% of the country. You're not going to get much of the 52%. You can get almost all of the 48%.
 

TeddyBoy

Member
This is how badly Brexit has blown open the British Left.

mNQwZyR.png


Labour is in serious trouble if this poll is accurate. They have had ample time to back a second referendum, and they have not.

It's a nice graph but that's purely a percentage, I expect Lib Dems to still get fewer seats than SNP in the next election thanks to first past the post.
 
It's a nice graph but that's purely a percentage, I expect Lib Dems to still get fewer seats than SNP in the next election thanks to first past the post.

Oh yeah, you can punch it in to the graphical swingometer on ukpollingreport and it'll happily tell you that a result of SNP 4% LD 22% would give the SNP 10 more seats than the LDs. IIRC it'd give the Tories a 70-seat lead over Labour, who'd have well over 150 seats despite coming third. Then the SNP with 65 or so seats despite coming fifth or sixth, then the LDs with about 55 seats.

What that result WOULD do is blow up the Labour party.

It also highlights that Goldsmith should be terrified about holding his seat. If you look at the London-specific polling, Labour's current position would break down the polls like this:

LD 38%
Con 32%
Lab 17%
UKIP 10%

If you then look at Remain voters:

LD 42%
Con 24%
Lab 23%
UKIP 1%
 

Dougald

Member
I found out this week that they're going to split my town in half in the upcoming boundary changes. This will catapult a lot of voters from an extremely safe tory seat to a less safe tory seat. Not that I'm a cynic.
 

Jezbollah

Member
I found out this week that they're going to split my town in half in the upcoming boundary changes. This will catapult a lot of voters from an extremely safe tory seat to a less safe tory seat. Not that I'm a cynic.

It looks like the boundary change bill is going to be voted down by Labour, and the Conservatives are going to let it happen (vote is tonight I think).

I suspect that the Conservatives will secretly be looking forward to a GE with 650 MPs, even if it goes against the recommendations of the Expense Scandal investigations.
 

Dougald

Member
It looks like the boundary change bill is going to be voted down by Labour, and the Conservatives are going to let it happen (vote is tonight I think).

I suspect that the Conservatives will secretly be looking forward to a GE with 650 MPs, even if it goes against the recommendations of the Expense Scandal investigations.

I knew the only way I'd get rid of John Redwood is waiting for him to die or retire

Could be worse, if I lived a few miles down the road Theresa May would be my MP. Then my vote really would be worthless
 

Theonik

Member
This is how badly Brexit has blown open the British Left.

mNQwZyR.png


Labour is in serious trouble if this poll is accurate. They have had ample time to back a second referendum, and they have not.
The problem is that the geographic distribution of voters matters in FPTP such that the Tories might end up gaining more seats than LDs will at the expense of labour.
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Labour needs a fresh (and freshly shaven) face, really, along with some new ideas and less compromising or appearing to move further to the centre than ever before. That's all there is to it. I think people will want change in 2020 regardless of Brexit, and Labour has shown they are very skilled at dealing with the devolved countries (which is very important) and maintaining the NHS.

The NHS being privatised (as I suspect the Tories are headed towards) would be horrible. What's great about the NHS is how it's not a mechanism for profit. Safety nets can care about people, corporations don't and will try to spend the least amount possible.

It's a good thing there's still time until 2020 to try to push Labour. At their best they should be strong in the North of England and urban areas. Just got to convince the working and middle class voters to return, as well as Scots. That's a huge job and I think there needs to be a change in leadership and direction.
 

Maledict

Member
You think Labour needs *less* compromising and moving to the Centre? With the most left wing leader they have ever had currently?

Sorry, I have to disagree. Give them a leader of Blairs caliber right now and they would be hounding the tories - secure the 48% pro-EU vote and make centrist moves on the parts of the 52% that can be persuaded. Instead Labour has a leader totally disconnected from the vast majority of the country, who would prefer to fight with the tories and UKiP over the 52% and ignore the 48%, and who has convinced his (very) pro-EU base in the party that it's better to be out of power for a generation and remain 'pure' than it is to win and actually accomplish something,
 
Wollt ihr den TOTALEN BREXIT?

The Telegraph: Heavyweight Brexiteers go public as 60 Tory MPs demand clean break from the EU

Sixty Tory MPs including seven ex-cabinet ministers have demanded Theresa May pulls Britain out of the single market and customs union amid fears her Brexit stance could be watered down.

Michael Gove, Iain Duncan Smith, John Whittingdale and Theresa Villiers are among leading Eurosceptics to put their names to the negotiation demand.

The politicians have gone public through The Sunday Telegraph amid concerns that pro-EU figures in the Cabinet are fighting to soften the Government’s Brexit position.
Eurosceptics said only the cleanest Brexit can fulfil the country’s referendum call to “untie ourselves from EU shackles and freely embrace the rest of the world”.​

Those MPs may sound alarmist, but on the other hand: Time to act now before it's too late!
What is Merkel trying to tell May as she uses ‘Merkel diamond ILLUMINATI HAND SIGN' | Daily Express
McYcaZp.jpg


oTFp1Ds.jpg
 

Alx

Member
Judging by the photograph, she's probably trying to tell her "that's not how you do the diamond, here let me show you !"
 

s_mirage

Member
Is the Daily Express like the onion? All of the top five articles are hilarious.

It's not satirical, but it is a complete joke, and its writers must know it. For years they regularly posted conspiracy theories about the death of Princess Diana as front page headlines. Out of all the papers, its survival mystifies me the most.
 

sammex

Member

Sixty Conservative MPs back call to leave single market

Ms Fernandes said the 23 June vote to leave the EU had been "an instruction to untie ourselves from EU shackles and freely embrace the rest of the world".
"As was made clear in the referendum campaign, remaining in the EU's internal market like Norway, or in a customs union like Turkey, is not compatible with either of these commitments and doing so would frustrate the will of the electorate."

It's unbelievable. This whole brexit mess makes me despair.
 

Xando

Member
European leaders agree UK must be forced into hard Brexit

European leaders have reportedly come to a 27-nation consensus that the UK must be forced into a hard Brexit in order to counter the rise of populist movements which could break up the European Union.

Senior EU officials fear allowing Britain to exit on its own terms could empower far-right candidates in France and Germany, which represent an existential danger to the bloc.

One EU diplomat told told The Observer: “If you British are not prepared to compromise on free movement, the only way to deal with Brexit is hard Brexit.

"Otherwise we would be seen to be giving in to a country that is leaving. That would be fatal.”

Not looking good

Wonder if someone will cave or if we're really driving off the cliff
 

BigAl1992

Member
European leaders agree UK must be forced into hard Brexit



Not looking good

Wonder if someone will cave or if we're really driving off the cliff

Wow. That's......really not good. The EU is going to wash their hands of the UK and sink them in negotiations judging by what they're saying in this. I feel bad for you guys. May and the Tories really don't know what they're doing or even know what they're letting themselves in for..
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
Wonder if someone will cave or if we're really driving off the cliff

The only one who could cave is UK government on free movement. On the other side you need all 27 countries to cave.

Also that "forced into a hard Brexit" is forced. It's still UK's call.
 

-Silver-

Member
I wonder how the hard right wingers will think of the EU now that they are all in agreement of a hard brexit? On the other hand, isn't it meant to be a hard brexit before we can negotiate better terms? I thought the two years is to basically give all parties time to gradually split away, and after that can you actually start renegotiating?
 
Staying in the single market requires free movement, which (given the fear of the immigrant boogeyman) is clearly something many Brexit voters don't want.

Brexit voters = still a (delusional) majority of Brits:
e17lrKS.png

Fifty-fifty nation | The Economist


US banks lay groundwork to leave London — reluctantly – POLITICO

LONDON — Four major U.S. banks — Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup — have plotted out their exit plans after Brexit and already have one foot out the door.

“Citi is planning to move people to Dublin, while the other three are going to Frankfurt,” one person familiar with the matter said. “At this stage the discussion isn’t about moving thousands of people, just hundreds; numbers will grow if single market access doesn’t happen.” The source said the first to be moved will likely be the banks’ derivatives trading teams.

Bankers say they love London and don’t want to move.

“London is an optimal choice for us. Any other city would be sub-optimal,” a banker at one major U.S. firm said. However, those familiar with the ongoing talks between the City of London, the British government and EU regulators insist things will change sooner rather than later.

“Some jobs will go, others will move and others will be created in Frankfurt or Dublin instead of London — and it’s likely to happen between the first and second quarter of next year,” the source said.

...
 

sammex

Member
FUCK! UNTERNEHMEN VERDECKTER SEELÖWE ABBRECHEN!

Staying in the single market requires free movement, which (given the fear of the immigrant boogeyman) is clearly something many Brexit voters don't want.

I know, but if you watch that video from Crab, it was the very opposite of "clear" that this was what they campaigned for. It's more lies.

European leaders agree UK must be forced into hard Brexit


Not looking good

Wonder if someone will cave or if we're really driving off the cliff

650.jpg


An interesting side effect of the horrible surveilance bill they passed this week:

Why EU may battle May over the Snooper’s Charter

In finally passing her surveillance bill, Britain’s PM just made Brexit even more complicated.

By LAURENS CERULUS 11/17/16, 4:34 PM CET Updated 11/17/16, 4:40 PM CET


Theresa May finally got her surveillance powers through the U.K. parliament — and with it, she has a whole new problem to overcome in the U.K.’s split from Europe.

Westminster gave a green light to the Investigatory Powers Bill on Wednesday, granting government security services wide-ranging powers to monitor people’s phones and computers.

The British prime minister set out the proposal, dubbed the Snooper’s Charter by critics, a year ago when she was home secretary and has twisted arms to get the bill through parliament. The bill allows government security services to hack people’s computers and smartphones, snoop on browsing history going back a year and track millions of devices simultaneously at the request of the home secretary. The government believes the legislation is needed to tackle organized crime and terrorism and May told parliament back in March that privacy is “hardwired” into the bill. However privacy advocates call it Orwellian, “the most extreme surveillance law ever passed in a democracy.”

The powers are fated to trigger a legal and political conflict between the U.K. and the EU over privacy – similar to the one Brussels has waged with the U.S. since Edward Snowden — revealed mass spying practices by the American government.

For now, U.K. companies can transfer data — everything from family photos to employee pay slips — within the EU. But once separated, the U.K. and EU will have to hash out a deal allowing companies to continue to transfer data across the Channel, much like the transatlantic “privacy shield.” Any future EU-U.K. deal will hinge on whether EU regulators believe their citizens’ privacy is respected under U.K. law. This doesn’t look straightforward.

European governments tend to take a much stricter view on privacy than their American counterparts. Once the Investigatory Powers Bill gains royal ascent and becomes British law, it is likely that Brussels regulators will be uncomfortable with the levels of mass surveillance permitted in the U.K., too.

If Brussels and the U.K. can’t reach an agreement allowing for the transfer of data between the two, it will be a lot harder for British companies to sell to Europeans and vice versa. U.K. trade relies heavily on services, particularly to the EU, which is its largest export market, accounting for 40 percent of trade. Cross-border services, such as international banking, require vast quantities of data to bounce back and forth over the internet.

Brussels has undertaken a crusade to export its vision on privacy and data protection across the world, devoting significant resources to negotiating new deals on privacy protections. In the past year, EU officials got the U.S. to start toning down its surveillance on EU citizens. The EU’s highest court has picked up the baton as defender of privacy as a fundamental right, striking down legislation that failed to protect internet users. European data watchdogs increasingly bite and bark at tech giants like Facebook and Google.

Britain may find itself next in line.

source
 

nekkid

It doesn't matter who we are, what matters is our plan.
The EU agreeing the UK should be forced into a hard Brexit, and publicly interfering with a British law (despite how awful that law may be) is only going to reinforce the beliefs of the leavers.
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
The EU agreeing the UK should be forced into a hard Brexit, and publicly interfering with a British law (despite how awful that law may be) is only going to reinforce the beliefs of the leavers.

So what? Will you leave harder or what?
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
No, I'd prefer their opinions were swinging back towards remain so we still have a chance to back out of this shitshow.

Honestly, I don't see how would that even work now with EU? Pretend it never happen? I think that bridge is crossed now.
 

nekkid

It doesn't matter who we are, what matters is our plan.
Honestly, I don't see how would that even work now with EU? Pretend it never happen? I think that bridge is crossed now.

Probably not.

However, it's exactly this sort of thing that makes me understand why some people loathe the EU. Did they collectively ever address the people of the UK in a positive way up to or after the referendum?
 

Alx

Member
No, I'd prefer their opinions were swinging back towards remain so we still have a chance to back out of this shitshow.

I think at this point most EU members want to be done with the whole Brexit issue as fast as possible, instead of entering years of tedious "maybe/maybe not" negotiations that aren't good for anybody. Europe has many issues to handle, and it can't spend all its energy dealing with the UK.
It's more "we would have preferred you to stay but since you decided to leave, the door is over there".

Did they collectively ever address the people of the UK in a positive way up to or after the referendum?

Most European leaders expressed their wish for UK to remain, but addressing the people of the UK would have been inappropriate in my opinion. It's precisely the kind of stuff they shouldn't do, the union is an agreement between institutions, but the referendum is the decision of the British population and other countries shouldn't (officially) tell them what to do.
 

nekkid

It doesn't matter who we are, what matters is our plan.
I think at this point most EU members want to be done with the whole Brexit issue as fast as possible, instead of entering years of tedious "maybe/maybe not" negotiations that aren't good for anybody. Europe has many issues to handle, and it can't spend all its energy dealing with the UK.
It's more "we would have preferred you to stay but since you decided to leave, the door is over there".



Most European leaders expressed their wish for UK to remain, but addressing the people of the UK would have been inappropriate in my opinion. It's precisely the kind of stuff they shouldn't do, the union is an agreement between institutions, but the referendum is the decision of the British population and other countries shouldn't (officially) tell them what to do.

Yeah that's a valid point.
 

El Topo

Member
I know, but if you watch that video from Crab, it was the very opposite of "clear" that this was what they campaigned for. It's more lies.

The entire campaign was built on bullshit. It never would have worked if there wasn't a significant resentment against immigration though.
 

sammex

Member
On the other hand wouldn't it look good for the EU, in terms of keeping everyone together, if we turned around and said actually this turns out it won't be a good idea so we'd like to just forget anything happened? (not saying this will happen obviously)
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
On the other hand wouldn't it look good for the EU, in terms of keeping everyone together, if we turned around and said actually this turns out it won't be a good idea so we'd like to just forget anything happened? (not saying this will happen obviously)

Not really. It will be used as "EU killing the democracy and crushing the people's will" and would make the Brexit and any other exit still a viable target.
 

kmag

Member
It was always obvious that the ultimate tact from the EU would be this position.

You can't leave and continue to enjoy even the partial benefits of membership without any of the costs or responsibilities of that membership.

There's no nastiness in that position it's just common sense. There's not going to be a partial setup where the UK gets to keep all the stuff it likes and get rid of everything it hates. That was never really on the table.
 

Calabi

Member
Ironically the European Union is probably one of the most democratic institutions in the world. I mean the fact that all countries have to agree, such an outlandish concept.

Whilst you have our PM Thereasa May looking for ways to bypass democracy, it would seem only her choice is the one that matters.
 

Alx

Member
Where does he even find custom road signs with imperial measurements ? Those things are expensive to produce.
 
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