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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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Zaph

Member
Britain to go into STEM.

Was on BBC 2

Sounds good.
£2 Billion a year to science.
https://apple.news/ATdfIAwniT_KIBSfysESrww

Just something to try and soften the absolutely brutal Autumn Statement that's coming.

BBC said:
The UK economy must be "watertight" to cope with "sharp" challenges ahead of Brexit, Chancellor Philip Hammond has said, days before the Autumn Statement.

Asked if he would help "just about managing" families, he said more must be done for those who feel they are not sharing in the UK's prosperity.

Labour's John McDonnell urged him to scrap benefit cuts.

Mr Hammond refused to be drawn on his plans, but stressed economic "credibility" was key.

He told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show the UK's debt was still "eye-wateringly" large and plans must be "responsible".

Some in Westminster expect Mr Hammond to use Wednesday's statement - one of two big economic statements of the year - to announce measures aimed at the key group of voters identified by Downing Street as the Just About Managing or JAMs, such as a freeze in fuel duty and measures to encourage saving.

We're about to burn £100bn (at least) for nothing, and this son of a bitch is talking about economic credibility and responsibility.
 

Mr. Sam

Member
I don't care anymore. Lavish corporations with cash, dismantle the welfare system, crash the economy into a wall at a hundred beautiful British miles per hour. Make sure that people who need help get exactly zero because fuck it, it's not like anyone's going to actually pay tax to fund that shit anymore anyway. Do not rest until Britain is just five gigantic luxury apartments and a cash machine that acts as HSBC's European headquarters.

Tory government. A hundred years Tory government. www.tory-government.com. Tories and government and their adventures. Tory government forever.
 
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...branch-with-hint-of-futur/?platform=hootsuite

Theresa May to give Britain lowest corporation tax of world's top 20 economies

Theresa May will offer British business an olive branch following a series of disputes by vowing to cut corporation tax to a record low.

In a speech to business leaders ahead of the Autumn Statement, Mrs May will commit Britain to having the lowest corporation tax of the world’s 20 biggest economies.


It suggests that the Government will cut corporation tax further and faster than expected, potentially going lower than the 15 per cent rate promised by Donald Trump ahead of the US presidential election.

In a further sign of Mrs May’s desire to improve relations with the business community, it emerged that the Government is to back away from plans to force businesses to put workers on company boards.

As part of the Autumn Statement, Mrs May will also announce £2billion of investment per year for research and development by the end of this Parliament to make Britain a global leader in science and technology.

Philip Hammond, the Chancellor, will also use Wednesday’s fiscal statement to announce a continued fuel duty freeze and more than £1.3billion of spending on roads and rail projects.

...

Pretty useless without access to the EEA, no?
 

kmag

Member
Britain to go into STEM.

Was on BBC 2

Sounds good.
£2 Billion a year to science.
https://apple.news/ATdfIAwniT_KIBSfysESrww

Is that new money? Or is that just replacing the European money?

Answer: it seems to be just replacing the EU money hence the reference to 2020

substantial real terms increases in government investment worth £2billion per year by 2020 for research and development, to ensure British business remains at the cutting edge of scientific and technological discovery

According to the Treasury, EU funding for a range of projects amounted to more than £4.5bn in 2014-15, with businesses and universities winning a further £1.5bn through competitive bids.

Yay?
 

kmag

Member
Depending on other taxes, UK could get a lot of headquarters with operations based in other countries. Not really useful for all those leave voters.

Why would they HQ here, when they can HQ in Ireland (12.5% corporation tax) and maintain EU access? Same language, similar legal system, better educated workforce


Good education and skills are important requisites for finding a job. In Ireland, 79% of adults aged 25-64 have completed upper secondary education, above the OECD average of 76%. This is truer of women than men, as 76% of men have successfully completed high-school compared with 82% of women. In terms of the quality of its education system, the average student scored 516 in reading literacy, maths and science in the OECD's Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), above the OECD average of 497. On average in Ireland, girls outperformed boys by 3 points, less than the average OECD gap of 8 points.

Good education and skills are important requisites for finding a job. In the United Kingdom, 79% of adults aged 25-64 have completed upper secondary education, higher than the OECD average of 76%. This is truer of men than women, as 80% of men have successfully completed high-school compared with 78% of women. In terms of the quality of the educational system, the average student scored 502 in reading literacy, maths and science in the OECD's Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), higher than the OECD average of 497. Although girls outperformed boys in many OECD countries, in the United Kingdom, boys outperformed girls by 1 point.
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
Why would they HQ here, when they can HQ in Ireland (12.5% corporation tax) and maintain EU access?

I missed the 17% by 2020 part and maybe it will go down faster. I thought it will get lower faster in a more concrete manner, considering the comment that May wants to go even lower than Trump.

So yeah, not happening then.
 

chadskin

Member
More Europeans wish to be a part of the European Union. Between March 2016 and August 2016 the support for being a member of the Union grew by five per cent, and is now at 62% across Europe.

Notable is the increase in the United Kingdom, before the Referendum only 49% said they would vote to remain. The eupinions survey in August found that 56% would have voted to stay in the Union, this is an increase of seven per cent. This trend can be observed in almost all member states of the European Union that were represented in eupinions.

Approval of the European Union grew by eight per cent in Germany (from 61% to 69%), by nine per cent in Poland (from 68% to 77%), by three per cent in France (from 50% to 53%), and in Italy it grew by two per cent (49% to 51%). The only outlier is Spain where approval shrunk from a high rating of 71 per cent to, although still high, 69 per cent. The British referendum concerning the exit of the European Union and its political and economic consequences seems to have left a clear impression on other Europeans citizens.
https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/fileadmin/files/user_upload/EZ_flashlight_europe_02_2016_EN.pdf
 

sammex

Member

This is sort of what I was talking about above. Other countries our seeing how much of a clusterfuck brexit is turning into and are now more pro EU. If we came out and said, yeah actually we've realised it's going to cause massive damage to our economy so we're staying, it'd only enhance that feeling IMO and therefore would be in the EU's best interests to forgive and forget rather than say actually no takesies backsies (in this total hypothetical situation because the government seems hellbent to leave regardless of the cost).
 

jufonuk

not tag worthy
This is sort of what I was talking about above. Other countries our seeing how much of a clusterfuck brexit is turning into and are now more pro EU. If we came out and said, yeah actually we've realised it's going to cause massive damage to our economy so we're staying, it'd only enhance that feeling IMO and therefore would be in the EU's best interests to forgive and forget rather than say actually no takesies backsies (in this total hypothetical situation because the government seems hellbent to leave regardless of the cost).

What if we somehow make a success of this? Or France go full frexit. Hopefully they have more sense than us.
 

jufonuk

not tag worthy
I think that should be a bigger worry for countries already leaning. If the UK doesn't totally implode they might look at their own exit as a solution.

This is going to happen, I can't see implosion but I can't see ultimate trade empire success either.
I see something positive out of this we just have to stop being dicks about it to Europe and the world.
 

sammex

Member
What if we somehow make a success of this? Or France go full frexit. Hopefully they have more sense than us.

If we do make a success of it then great, but we won't know if it has become a success for a long long time, plus you'd have to say what success after Brexit actually is, which will differ depending on where you live in the UK. Is it a success if we "take back British sovereignty" but have rampant inflation in a smaller economy? Is it a success if we make loads of trade deals and the economy grows but things like workers rights (at threat under a Tory gov) are reduced and some people having to work more than 48 hours a week or losing guaranteed 4 weeks paid holiday a year? Will it be a success if Fisherman no longer have to obey quotas and can make more money, but possibly risking long term declines in fishing stocks? Maybe others will follow our example but it won't be without significant risks.
 
How do you define 'success'? Seems naive to believe it will be a success in any meaningful way. We'll just do 'OK' in my view. With less money than before, somewhat crappier services (I wonder how will services be funded after the corporate tax cuts), but not 100% screwed. Still better off in the EU.
 

Doopliss

Member
May's pledge to turn the UK into a corporate tax haven is so pathetic. I hope Brexiters are happy because this was an obvious consequence of what they voted for.
 

nekkid

It doesn't matter who we are, what matters is our plan.
It will all trickle down to Cornwall and the Midlands eventually!

"Google and Facebook opening their new HQs in London is fantastic news and proof that we can prosper with Brexit. We've always been fans of what London does for the economy."
 
FT: Canada quashes hopes of quick UK trade deal after Brexit

Canada’s finance minister has dashed hopes of rekindling a close trading pact among the countries of the Commonwealth including Britain once the process of Brexit has been completed.

Bill Morneau told the Financial Times that while Canada would want to strike a trade deal with Britain after it leaves the EU because “affinity” between the two countries is high, this was far from the top of his priorities. “We’re not talking as much about Brexit as you are in the UK,” he said.

While he nodded to the traditional closeness between the two countries, saying that Canadians hold “pretty dear” the relationship, he was clear that a UK trade deal is not the top of his agenda.

“From our perspective, clearly the Nafta [North American Free Trade Agreement] relationship [with the US] is of huge importance. That’s our biggest relationship by a very big margin, so that’s important to us. And then the Ceta relationship [with the EU] opens up a very significant market. Our opening of exploratory talks with China … we do see as important and as the UK figures its next steps, that will be important too.”

...

Whitehall can’t cope with legal nightmare of Brexit, say experts | News | The Times & The Sunday Times

Theresa May’s pledge to enshrine all EU law into British legislation to ensure a smooth Brexit is turning into a legal and technical nightmare that threatens to overwhelm Whitehall, it is claimed today.

The prime minister made the promise at the Tory party conference last month, saying that it would give businesses and workers “maximum certainty” when Britain left the European Union.

Government lawyers working on the Great Repeal Bill are understood, however, to be struggling with the complexity of the task. Experts have warned that the plan is “simply not practical”.

Some sources are now suggesting that the bill would have to be substantially watered down or face “serious legal and practical difficulties” when it is introduced into parliament.

...

Brussels prepares for a hard Brexit | Centre for European Reform

Dismayed by the noisy and vocal forces that are pushing Theresa May towards a hard Brexit, the EU institutions expect the UK to face a significant drop in cross-Channel trade and investment.

...
 

CTLance

Member
Aw man.
dXgeNYe.jpg
I almost wanted to see Farage as UK ambassador to Trumplandia. It'd have been fitting.
 

Funky Papa

FUNK-Y-PPA-4
European Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager is being civil and diplomatic as always.

Nissan agreed last month to build its new Qashqai crossover at its UK plant, in addition to adding output of the X-Trail SUV, after Prime Minister Theresa May assured it the government would provide support to counter any loss of competitiveness caused by Britain leaving the EU.

The European Commission subsequently asked for more details.

...

"Before we know more, we have no concerns," Vestager told reporters on the sidelines of a conference in Brussels.

Hell hath no fury like an angry Vestager, but for now she seems more observant than belligerent (which is precisely her role, although this may seem shocking given the utter lack of professionalism about everything Brexit).

On a somewhat related note (zomg GAF exclusive), at least one of General Motors' factories in the mainland is telling key personel to brace for potentially increasing capacity in the short to medium term in order to accommodate some Vauxhall production (I'm guessing it's the Cascada). My own speculation: this either means that either GM/Opel is unsure about May's words or that the deal doesn't cut it for the company.
 
Trump's Farage commments are unhelpful to May. Incorporating the remnants of UKIP into the Brexit machine would blow up May's Remain support. As it stands this suggestion by Trump is also going to get blue Remainer's heads shaking.

May is extremely isolated politically now with Obama swapped for Trump. Being friendly with Trump now means siding with someone who fraternizes with UKIP's face. Yet not being friendly is a signal to her hard right base that she's actually soft.

I suppose we'll see after the Autumn Statement if Labour can mount any sort of attack that will dent May's 13-point lead in the polls...

And yeah, May and the entire government is walking on rotting stilts right now. There's going to be a massive come-down. My wager is that it is going to be a foreign policy crisis after Trump is inaugurated.
 

Funky Papa

FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Trump able to rustle our jimmies with one tweet is not a good start.

That and bilking people out of their money is all he's good at.

Anyway, it goes on to show that Trump is not a reliable actor, let alone a partner. He did May dirty for some sweet retweets despite having some common ground to work on.

I'm even more weirded out by the lack of attention he's devoting to the EU. I'm not sure if I should be happy or concerned.
 

Burai

shitonmychest57
It's amazing really. We've just thrown the country down the shitter because we're "fed up of the foreign elite telling us what to do" and now the President of the USA is trying to tell us who our ambassador should be and, oh, it just so happens to be a personal friend and sometime advisor.
 

sammex

Member
Brexit vote wiped $1.5tn off UK household wealth in 2016, says report

The UK saw $1.5tn (£1.2tn) wiped off its wealth during 2016 after the Brexit vote sent the pound tumbling and the stock market into reverse, according to a survey by Credit Suisse.

A fall in values at the top-end of the property market also contributed to about 400,000 Britons losing their status as dollar millionaires and one of the biggest drops in wealth among the major economies.

That's £1,200,000,000,000

Imagine how much money we'll lose when we actually trigger A50.
 

Moosichu

Member
In other news, the country's debt is expected to increase by 220 billion pounds by the end of parliament according to the OBR.

The only reason it isn't way bigger, is because the OBR isn't expecting immigration levels to decrease much. So yeah, we really are a country that is playing itself.
 
Some sterling play by the 'Conservatives', really. Bravo all round.

Meanwhile, it strikes me that a lot of Brexit people probably don't care about the cash so much, as long as the economy doesn't tank. They're more in it for the 'freedom!' aspect, which is harder to demonstrate as being problematic and rather more complex... if the High Court decision is anything to go by.
 

Number45

Member
"We have made a judgement - consistent with most external studies - that over the time horizon of our forecast any likely Brexit outcome would lead to lower trade flows, lower investment and lower net inward migration than we would otherwise have seen, and hence lower potential output."

So the government defends a report being criticised by pro-exit people that includes that line.

Also, Iain Duncan Smith is a hateful cunt. The OBR "hasn't got anything right." Yet another exit proponent trashing the research of experts, just because. The denouncement of any negative economic news is sickening.

I realise there's probably a separate thread for the news, but calling IDS a hateful cunt seems more appropriate in here.
 
A very positive leader in this weeks Spectator:

On the morning after the European Union referendum, Britain looked like a country in crisis. The Prime Minister had resigned, Scotland’s first minister was talking about a second independence referendum and the FTSE was in free fall. In several EU capitals, there was an assumption that, when the Brexit talks began, Britain would be the new Greece: a country that could ill afford to reject any deal offered by the EU, no matter how humiliating. In the days following the vote, Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, declared that Britain had just ‘collapsed — politically, economically, monetarily and constitutionally’.

Five months on, Britain is in a stronger position than Rutte and co. would have believed possible. Since the referendum, the British economy has grown faster than that of the eurozone. The government is now led by a Prime Minister who is as secure in her job as any of her EU counterparts. Theresa May can walk into the Brexit negotiations knowing that she has several aces in her hand.

She has a commanding 28-point lead over Jeremy Corbyn on the question of who would make the better Prime Minister. Her position within her own party is also strikingly strong. Tory MPs know they can’t have two unelected leaders in one parliament, and her Remainer critics lack support both in the parliamentary party and among members. She can be confident that when she goes to the country, her governing majority in Parliament will increase. How many other European leaders can say the same?

The post-referendum recession that the Treasury forecast has failed to materialise. Instead, unemployment has dropped to an 11-year low, and at just under 5 per cent, it is half that of the eurozone. The pound has lost value, especially against the dollar, which will push inflation higher. But considering that the pound was too high for too long (last year the International Monetary Fund said it was 13 per cent overvalued) its fall is not entirely a bad thing. Currencies are not national virility symbols but economic shock-absorbers. Several European countries right now desperately need a more affordable currency, but are stuck inside the euro straitjacket.

Immediately after the Brexit vote it seemed as if the result might have created new grounds for a Scottish divorce from England, as Nicola Sturgeon took to the airwaves to talk about a second independence referendum. But five months on there doesn’t appear to be any groundswell of support for this. Privately, the SNP used to say they wanted 60 per cent support for independence for several months before asking the country again. But support for independence is safely below 50 per cent, as it was before Brexit. The SNP has also blundered in its argument for a second referendum by saying that it wishes to stay in the European single market. Given that 64 per cent of Scottish exports go to the UK market and only 17 per cent to the EU, it is clear which union is more economically important. Going into the negotiations, May will not feel that her approach should be dictated by fear of what the SNP might say about it in a future independence referendum.

The election of Donald Trump means that another card has fallen into the Prime Minister’s hand. First, his ambivalence about Nato has made Britain more important to Europe’s security than it has been for 60 years. Vladimir Putin clearly senses an opportunity. His plan to move nuclear-capable missiles to Russia’s western enclave, Kaliningrad, is a sign of how he intends to probe for weakness and exploit irresolution over the coming months.

If Europe cannot rely absolutely on President Trump to defend eastern Europe from Russian aggression and subversion, then Britain and its military forces, intelligence services and nuclear deterrent become far more important. This should create a more mature and cooperative atmosphere for discussions. After all, Britain’s continuing security commitment to Europe is proof that this country is leaving the EU, not the continent itself.

The second Trump effect is the keenness of those around him to cut a quick trade deal with the UK. His team views an Anglo-American agreement as a way of showing that they are not anti-trade per se — just against deals with low-wage economies that they believe cost American jobs. No one would think that a deal with Britain would lead to workers being undercut in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania — three manufacturing-heavy states that swung from the Democrats to Trump. The incoming administration’s enthusiasm for a deal with the UK, in stark contrast to Barack Obama’s ‘back of the queue’ approach, makes it less easy to claim that Brexit will leave Britain isolated and alone.

Another event that could reshape the negotiations is Italy’s constitutional reform referendum on 4 December. The vote is on a complex series of measures designed to change the balance of power between the different houses of the Italian parliament— but its significance for Brexit comes from the pledge by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to resign if these changes are rejected (as was suggested by the last poll before a polling blackout began). A Renzi resignation would make markets look again at the state of Italy’s banks and their non-performing loans. This could push the eurozone crisis from its current chronic state to an acute one.

Renzi’s departure would also be likely to lead to fresh Italian elections. Currently, the polls — for what they are worth — indicate that the country’s next prime minister will be from the Five Star movement, which is committed to a referendum on Italy’s euro membership. This would precipitate a far bigger crisis for the single currency than anything we have seen before. After all, the plot against (and downfall of) Silvio Berlusconi in 2011 came about because he mused about the possibility of Italy quitting the currency union.

This all plays to Mrs May’s advantage because London is the de facto financial and banking capital of the eurozone. The more trouble the single currency gets into, the more dangerous it would be to erect barriers between the two. These could threaten the finances of some eurozone states by making it legally complicated for them to sell their sovereign debt on the London market. One of those intimately involved in preparing the UK’s negotiating strategy tells me that only the French appear oblivious to this. However, the UK does not want to publicly highlight so explosive an issue.

It is often said that politics will trump economics in the Brexit negotiations. But the single currency’s stability is not just an economic issue — the euro is the ultimate expression of the European political project. So the financial services sector may get a significantly better Brexit deal than expected.



None of this is to say that Brexit will be easy. The negotiations will be infuriatingly complex and it is hard to imagine the May government achieving much else until the exit talks are complete. There are also concerns in Whitehall that the government lacks the experts required for the task, given how legal and technically fraught even the preparatory work is. It is also imperative for May to persuade business that she will take radical steps to make the UK more globally competitive if no EU deal can be negotiated.

Also, the other European leaders are fairly united in their negotiating position. They are determined to show that you can’t have all the benefits of union with none of the costs. Britain’s traditional EU allies are most likely to stress this in order to damp down their own domestic Eurosceptic movements. This is where Trump has not helped the UK’s cause. His election has made EU governments more fearful of a populist revolt. Indeed, if Marine Le Pen is thrashed in the second round of the French presidential elections it will, one suspects, make it easier for Theresa May to negotiate a good deal.

Several European leaders are still feeling a bit raw about Brexit. Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, has told colleagues that he cried when he heard that Britain had voted to leave. If emotion were to triumph over cool economic logic — and no agreement is reached — it would hurt both sides. The intensity of feeling shows why British ministers must be extremely careful not to sound as if they are running down the whole EU project. Diplomacy and the national interest require that Britain conveys the message that it wishes the EU every success in future, regardless of how much ministers might privately think that the break-up of the euro would be a good thing.

Senior British government figures expect two trade agreements between the UK and the EU. This marks an attempt to avoid a Wallonia-style problem where the whole agreement is held up by the objections of one parliament in Europe.

The first deal would cover trade in goods — and because this is an EU competence it could be done at EU level. The second would cover services, and as that would be a ‘mixed agreement’, covering both EU and national competences, it would go out for approval by national and regional parliaments. Obviously, this deal would be particularly vulnerable to political grandstanding. But given that services tend not to arouse the same level of protectionist anxiety as agriculture or manufacturing, the approach could work. After all, Wallonia doesn’t have a banking sector to protect.

Britain has not yet served formal notice that it intends to quit the EU — so no one can say with any certainty how Brexit will go. Thanks largely to sheer luck, however, Theresa May has a better hand than she could have dared hope for when she took office. Now she must play her cards right to make Brexit a success.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/11/britain-holds-the-aces-in-brexit-talks/
 
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