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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM
- Thread starter Hasney
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so if I'm looking at that right the brexit people basically think they're going to get the same deal as Turkey with all the benefits like banking and retiring to Spain and in return the EU get nothing.
I'd be surprised if May wasn't laughed out of the building.
Looks like I spoke to soon, train crash Brexit is out. Catastrophic Brexit is in.
Britain risks a catastrophic Brexit because the government is so dismissive of the concerns of trade experts, according to one of the figures behind the EU-Canada trade deal which took a decade to negotiate.
4% off GDP. Ouch.
Britain risks a catastrophic Brexit because the government is so dismissive of the concerns of trade experts, according to one of the figures behind the EU-Canada trade deal which took a decade to negotiate.
4% off GDP. Ouch.
Theonik
Member
The problem with this chart is that none of these are former members of the EU. All of them have their exemptions in good faith provided they keep their part of the bargain. UK's bargain was not doing any leaving shenanigans. Turkey was the UK trying to get them in the EU with the rest of the union objecting so a compromise is reached and you have their current position. EEA members are usually an understanding that these countries are members in all but name, to avoid some political issues at home. The UK couldn't transition in any of these statuses without causing objections that would stop such a move in its tracks not least when it wants even more one sided exemptions for itself.
Royal_Phalanx
Member
Brexiter: "4% isn't that much, 96% of it is still there, we have sovereignty so it's worth it"
Pancake Mix
Copied someone else's pancake recipe
That got me thinking, considering your avatar is an imaginary woman from a country that rejected European Union membership and isn't in the Customs Union either (though its counterpart Norway has a bilateral agreement on the latter). There is a way to make it work on Europe's periphery, but it would require accepting all labourers from the EU.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/10/three-reasons-a-post-brexit-uk-cant-copy-norway-or-switzerland/
^As you can clearly see in this document, Norway and Switzerland have a lot going for them that makes it easy for them to keep the European Union as far away as possible while enjoying the most economic benefits possible. Generally they're like non-voting members as some have said, but they do have a few concessions. Those conditions are different in the UK, and indeed in any country, so it would not be simple to replicate that.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36639261
Norway even gets some of those regional developmental funds in return for their large contribution into the EU budget IIRC but I can't seem to find a source on that. Take that as hearsay because I can't find the article again regarding that.
Here's the thing though, leaving the Customs Union would mean there would have to be some customs checks some of the time. Obviously that's no problem whatsoever for Switzerland and Norway, but it might be slightly more difficult for the UK in regards to Northern Ireland in particular.
Also, there's another problem. Switzerland and I believe Norway always negotiated bilaterally between two equal members, their sovereign states and the entity that is the EU. In contrast, the EU has decided very late in the game that every member state must ratify CETA, and any UK free trade deal would have the same...without Canada's magic touch and near decade of patient negotiations.
The best deal anyone country in Europe could ever hope to get was probably this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_renegotiation_of_EU_membership,_2016
Every single EU member was on-board in the event of a "Remain" vote and there was quite a bit substantial here, and the written rejection of an "ever closer union" might have been, depending on how it was interpreted.
Switzerland and Norway are in a pretty good position trying to keep as independent as possible from the EU, an organisation that is not fantastic in every way, contrary to the belief of some. However, those are small, incredibly rich countries that can have more control over their destiny than everyone else and still be quite possibly the greatest countries on Earth while doing it.
In contrast, the UK is of similar significance to Germany and France in the EU and there were a lot of incentives given to tolerate the idea of remaining over the years, incentives that should have been able to sway 2% of voters. That's the past, however. There will be be an exit, whether it's mostly de facto/nominal(and low-risk) or total (and higher-risk) is going to be something to see.
The pesky Lefties who don't want to leave the EU, i.e. The Guardian, The Independent, ...
Judging by other tweets, May said something along the lines of aiming for an "ambitious trade deal" with the EU, which in effect means hard Brexit.
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/
Hippolnareff
Member
The Guardian & The Independent (The latter moreso, they've been incredibly whiney and click-baity for the last 8 months - really lost any faith I had in them).
Financial Times to an extent. The funny thing is, the FT report mainly on the financial repercussions of political events and because their reporting on the effects of Brexit have been mainly negative (I wonder why), they've been labelled as Remain media.
https://twitter.com/RidgeOnSunday/status/818047501424963584
TM: "But what I'm looking at is not the means to the end, but what the outcome is and I think this is so important, what people want is to focus on the right outcome for the UK. Actually there will be a variety of ways in which we will get there, but people who simply talk about issues around membership of the single market, access to the single market, are looking at the means. I'm looking at the outcome, and the outcome is a really good ambitious trade deal for the UK with the EU that enables our companies to trade in and operate in the single market and that's both goods and services."
Looks like May has finally revealed her hand:
Step 1. Trigger A50
Step 2. A variety of ways of getting the right outcome...
Step 3. Really good ambitious trade deal for the UK with the EU that enables our companies to trade in and operate in the single market.
TM: "But what I'm looking at is not the means to the end, but what the outcome is and I think this is so important, what people want is to focus on the right outcome for the UK. Actually there will be a variety of ways in which we will get there, but people who simply talk about issues around membership of the single market, access to the single market, are looking at the means. I'm looking at the outcome, and the outcome is a really good ambitious trade deal for the UK with the EU that enables our companies to trade in and operate in the single market and that's both goods and services."
Looks like May has finally revealed her hand:
Step 1. Trigger A50
Step 2. A variety of ways of getting the right outcome...
Step 3. Really good ambitious trade deal for the UK with the EU that enables our companies to trade in and operate in the single market.
In a couple of years, the UK may need to tear up the economic strategy that it has followed for decades and come up with a new one, as it will not be able to offer itself as a gateway to Europe as it currently does.
Halph n Halph
Member
I may be ignorant to the reasons , but why would Britain be a gateway to Europe anymore than any of the other 27 members?
There must be other reasons that global companies invest in Britain .
Theonik
Member
The UK's sell is that they speak English, and are stable politically. Ireland gets a lot of that business too. The reason that English is so important is it's much easier to relocate your operations when you can bring over your executives there. Many multinationals use English as a business language. This doesn't matter though when you are leaving the EU, you are no longer in the running at all. Brexit has also brought a time of nearly unprecedented political and legislative uncertainty for businesses.
For some service industries this doesn't matter, say movie production and animation where the talent pool and tax incentives are the reason, for others like finance the talent pool is a factor but if you need to have EU headquarters as well, many of these people are quite portable, and you don't get much choice in the matter if you wish to continue doing business.
I'm going away in March, this is why I bought half my cash when the pound was fairly high two weeks ago. Not that todays fall has made a huge dent when you're talking about a few hundred pounds (I just can't look at the exchange rate this time last year)
I see May is claiming she's no preference for Hard Brexit (because she doesn't believe in the term?). With the shambles her cabinet seems to be in it's almost hard to believe she was the most sane option 6 months ago. There doesn't seem to be any debate over how we want the country to look outside EU membership, and the impression I get is because they don't have a clue
31GhostsIV
Banned
The pound falls every time May opens her mouth.
Royal_Phalanx
Member
May has fucked over our generation to win old people votes
British Prime Minister Theresa May said on Monday it was wrong to say she was talking about a "hard Brexit", after the pound fell to two-month lows following an interview she gave on Sunday.
The pound dropped after traders felt May had indicated during the interview that Britain would dramatically rework trade ties with the EU after Brexit.
Asked if her comments had been interpreted wrongly, May said: "I'm tempted to say that the people who are getting it wrong are those who print things saying I'm talking about a hard Brexit, (that) it is absolutely inevitable there's a hard Brexit.
"I don't accept the terms hard and soft Brexit. What we're doing is going to get an ambitious, good and best possible deal for the United Kingdom in terms of ... trading with and operating within the single European market," she added.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-br...source=twitter
May has no clue
The pound dropped after traders felt May had indicated during the interview that Britain would dramatically rework trade ties with the EU after Brexit.
Asked if her comments had been interpreted wrongly, May said: "I'm tempted to say that the people who are getting it wrong are those who print things saying I'm talking about a hard Brexit, (that) it is absolutely inevitable there's a hard Brexit.
"I don't accept the terms hard and soft Brexit. What we're doing is going to get an ambitious, good and best possible deal for the United Kingdom in terms of ... trading with and operating within the single European market," she added.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-br...source=twitter
May has no clue
$1.21. Wonder if we'll experience the ignominy of the £ stabilising around $1.1x this year.
Audioboxer
Member
If anyone is interested in perspective from across the puddle, in response to discourse in the last week that Ireland should consider leaving the EU as well in order to maintain its relationship with the UK, Phil Hogan, one of Ireland's EU commissioners, wrote an opinion piece titled "Now Is The Time To Cut Our Ties With Brexiting Britain".
In the article, he states that Ireland's relationship with the EU has been closely tied to the UK's, where they would mutually act as allies on policy grounds. With the UK leaving the table, he argues that Ireland must change its existing relationship with the other EU member states, reaching out to closely bind with new allies and proving that Ireland is strongly committed to Europe, while doing its utmost to retain the same trading relationship with the UK after it has left the bloc.
He also states that the discourse is going to change dramatically once Article 50 is enacted. For the time being, the "centre of power and influence" regarding Brexit is based in London, but once the process begins, it is planted firmly in Brussels. He expects UK to argue strongly, albeit "at times incoherently".
In the article, he states that Ireland's relationship with the EU has been closely tied to the UK's, where they would mutually act as allies on policy grounds. With the UK leaving the table, he argues that Ireland must change its existing relationship with the other EU member states, reaching out to closely bind with new allies and proving that Ireland is strongly committed to Europe, while doing its utmost to retain the same trading relationship with the UK after it has left the bloc.
He also states that the discourse is going to change dramatically once Article 50 is enacted. For the time being, the "centre of power and influence" regarding Brexit is based in London, but once the process begins, it is planted firmly in Brussels. He expects UK to argue strongly, albeit "at times incoherently".
Assuring EU citizens of right to stay 'would lose UK negotiating capital'
Disgusting stuff, even for a May government.
Disgusting stuff, even for a May government.
anonymous_abc
Member
While the other side is unilaterally working on enabling EU citizenship to UK-citizens...
The UK's image is so ruined because of this. But immigrants amirite.
british hate for british people. cant have all the eurotrash taking any hate from us!
The Friendly Monster
Member
You know the pound has dropped 20% against the dollar since Brexit right? You don't think that might affect a restaurant chain that imports a lot and exports little?
Is Jamie now an enemy of the people like Gary Lineker and the gay fencer?
He has form. Did it in 2014 as well blaming touch economic conditions.
anonymous_abc
Member
When have layoffs ever not been blamed on "touch economic conditions"?
Free mass grave for all!!!
Halph n Halph
Member
Corbyn has just been interviewed on BBC R5. Finally somebody willing to speak about the massive problems within the construction industry regarding pay and conditions as a result of freedom of movement.
Rightly sighting exploitation of migrant workers by greedy companies and agencies as the problem rather than blaming the people moving here to better their lives and the lives of their family.
He seemed to suggest a minimum wage be introduced into law for skilled workers .
Jeremy has just upped his chances of winning my vote massively and that is something I would never have thought I'd say.
Edit.. and then he goes and says something stupid that i misswd later in the interview .
Rightly sighting exploitation of migrant workers by greedy companies and agencies as the problem rather than blaming the people moving here to better their lives and the lives of their family.
He seemed to suggest a minimum wage be introduced into law for skilled workers .
Jeremy has just upped his chances of winning my vote massively and that is something I would never have thought I'd say.
Edit.. and then he goes and says something stupid that i misswd later in the interview .
RedSparrows
Member
Isn't the problem people not abiding to minimum wage laws as it is?
Stallion Dan
Member
The problem is price work and pricing jobs well below minimum wage given time needed.
Don't see how can possibly fix that.
Halph n Halph
Member
If a good wage is enforced for day works then prices will have to increase in line . Nobody I know would work price for less than day works.
Obviously quoted work is different, and you are simply at the mercy of supply and demand of trades.
The problem is the fact that pricework rates in my region are struggling to push yearly income above £32000 a year when 10 years ago £ 40000 a year was attainable within a normal 40 hr week, partly due to a higher availability of skills as well as a slow recovery from the great heist of 2008.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/10/prices-oxo-bisto-mr-kipling-pound-brexit-premier-foods
Shoppers will have to pay more for Oxo stock cubes, Bisto gravy and Mr Kipling cakes as the firm behind the brands prepares to raise prices to offset the fall in the pound triggered by the Brexit vote.
Shoppers will have to pay more for Oxo stock cubes, Bisto gravy and Mr Kipling cakes as the firm behind the brands prepares to raise prices to offset the fall in the pound triggered by the Brexit vote.
Disgusting waste of space as a leader, this man is. I don't believe that an opposition should merely oppose for opposition's sake, but equally he should have some fucking common sense and try to appeal to some of the disaffected 48% who didn't want to leave the EU by at least championing retaining single market access.
He is actually being worse than useless and is giving the public no reason to vote Labour when a GE does come around. What a shit show.
anonymous_abc
Member
So is Tony still coming back?
Playing Devil's Advocate for a second; since we all think that Corbyn lacks electability and needs more popular policies to even stand a chance, why do you think he should try to appeal to what we know is a minority of voters on this issue?
The fact is that we know, quite clearly, that opposing Brexit is a losing proposition for the Labour party.
Theonik
Member
Either is a losing proposition for the labour party. It is estimated 75% of their voters voted remain yet a lot of their seats voted leave. FPTP makes it a lose-lose proposition for them and Libdems seem to have swept the rug under Labour's feet in many of their seats if polls are to be believed, largely by appealing to the 48%. The other point of course is that off the 52%, not all of them are Brexit of busters, that last one will also hurt the Tories depending on what they can deliver in the negotiations.
Because adopting the same stance as the tories who are in power gives people no incentive to switch. Conversely, he could position Labour as the party that respects the will of the people in still delivering Brexit, whilst not completely forgetting the 48% remain voters. It could demonstrate a sensible head for economics. It could account for shifting public opinion if people gradually find themselves worse off.
Simply put, it's SOMETHING. Meekly agreeing with the PM does nothing to move the needle positively amongst Brexiteers or Remain voters.
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