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[JonnyDBrit]

I don't see how this works as per the way the referendum works, theoretically and in practise. It's taking one solution as if it were voted on at a general election, with a majority of the electorate supporting - right down to, basically, 'get over it remainers.'

Not an advisory minority victory.

Not contesting its legitimacy as per the rules, more how this playa with our self identification as a free, fair, democratic society.

Likely because it's increasingly dawning on May that there will be difficulty in getting anything but a hard Brexit - so she's trying to rally people around the notion of such being part of British identity. That whatever the cost to the nation, it is the 'choice that the British people made' (even if it was only 52% of a technical minority), and so to be British, it must be accepted. Don't agree with what she's doing? Well, I guess you're not a true patriot, wanting to defy the will of the people so!

 

[avaya]

Likely because it's increasingly dawning on May that there will be difficulty in getting anything but a hard Brexit - so she's trying to rally people around the notion of such being part of British identity. That whatever the cost to the nation, it is the 'choice that the British people made' (even if it was only 52% of a technical minority), and so to be British, it must be accepted. Don't agree with what she's doing? Well, I guess you're not a true patriot, wanting to defy the will of the people so!

Nationalism truly is vile.

 

[chadskin]

'Give us what we want or we'll fuck over our own people to the 9th generation just to hurt you. And you know we can do it, because our own people are that fucking stupid'.

 

[jelly]

Ugh, what are they doing.

I guess she is going hard because the EU won't budge one bit so this is her saving face while driving over the fucking cliff. Idiots, absolute idiots. Fuck the vote. Just admit it was moronic to ask the bloody question and don't go through with it. You would safe face then.

 

[Starwolf_UK]

Queen Theresa has hated the European Court of Human rights for a long time and she sees leaving the EU as a way to abolish it completely collateral damage be damned.

She wants a fast Brexit not one that is any good so see could do loads of reforms and then in the 2020 election be "I am the greatest unelected prime minster ever give me another term. Your other choices are a looney, an old man and some person you've never heard of called Tim".

 

[Tethur]

Ugh, what are they doing.

I guess she is going hard because the EU won't budge one bit so this is her saving face while driving over the fucking cliff. Idiots, absolute idiots. Fuck the vote. Just admit it was moronic to ask the bloody question and don't go through with it. You would safe face then.

They're trying to play chicken, indicating that they're irrational, while hoping Europe will act rational to avoid a brexcident. If it goes wrong they can always blame Europe for not swerving.

IMHO
1. Hammond's threat will annoy the Dutch and Irish (threatens their livelihood) hoping they will pressure the Germans. What a way to treat your closest and most vocal allies in the EU.
2. Europe should ignore the English press, They will always get blamed.

 

[sammex]

Hard Brexit means retiring later, Britons warned

“The message from Brexit is: if you don’t want immigrants, you’re going to have to work longer,” said Prof Sarah Harper, director of the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing and chair of the UK government’s Foresight Review on Ageing Societies. “That’s how the sums work.”

In the modelling, Harper’s team predicted that if migration were stopped, it would have a serious impact on workers, necessitating “far longer working lives”.

“Since the middle of the 20th century the UK, like many other advanced economies, has employed migrant labour to reduce the ratio between older dependants and workers, which has arisen as child-bearing rates have fallen and people have lived longer,” said Harper, who also serves on the government’s science and technology council.

“However, if all migration into the UK was to be halted then over the next five years those coming up to retirement would have to work around one and a half years longer just in order to maintain current output [of GDP]. Indeed, any significant reduction in labour immigration would wipe out the projected benefits to GDP of small delays in retirement, or require far longer working lives.”

That's only the immediate effect - the article goes further into the possible long term repercussions.

 

[RedSparrows]

And if so, when would the balance swing away from THE SOVEREIGN VOTERS (workers) to the other SOVEREIGN VOTERS (employers)? What if we don't want to lose so much on this altar?

It's odd how the assumption that immigration being reduced is the Thing To Do stretches on to the assumption that Everyone Must Understand The Implications And Still Want It Anyway.

Uh, no?

 

[Neo C.]

If hard Brexit happened, would companies leave UK in droves? Or would they rather stay and take the tax breaks?

 

[Jezbollah]

If hard Brexit happened, would companies leave UK in droves? Or would they rather stay and take the tax breaks?

It really depends on the deal, I suspect. Any large company worth it's salt is already putting in some contingency for any and all imaginable scenarios.

How Brexit affects business in general is an unknown quantity until a final deal has bene agreed and ratified. This is why I sigh at anyone lauding the FTSE's highs post Brexit - the crux of negotiations and how they affect the economy is not yet known.

 

[chadskin]

Pound's fallen below $1.20 just now.

 

[Theonik]

If hard Brexit happened, would companies leave UK in droves? Or would they rather stay and take the tax breaks?

Depends on your business. Moving is expensive so tax breaks need to be sufficient to offset the cost of not moving after companies consider what it costs to move but the problem is that also impacts revenues which makes this a bit of a balancing act. But consider say a bank.

They need an EU presence to sell there. They might move their offices or move all their expansion there. Same goes for other industries, so they will subsidise the cost of setting up in the continent using UK subsidies basically.

 

[Chinner]

Well seeing as we're going to be working for longer, we might as well get rid of those pensions. Do we really need em if we're working till we're dropping dead?

 

[-Silver-]

There's good news in all this; when we grow old and talk about the good old days, its not just us looking through rose tinted glasses, we'd be telling the truth.

 

[Xando]

Pound's fallen below $1.20 just now.

If it goes below 1.15 i might just buy a switch from amazon UK

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

I should have bought some euros

 

[Phantast2k]

Full interview: Brexit: Philip Hammond issues threat to EU partners - WELT

This strategy will backfire. UK cannot credibly threaten to become the Cayman Islands.

As predicted this is not being taken seriously, at least not in Germany.
German (& German EU) MPs' reactions to Hammond's interview:

• Empty threat since UK already has issues with a trade deficit (new tariffs) and a budged deficit (tax breaks)
• Hammond's interview and the threats of self-harm are therefore an expression of UK's helplessness
• Both parties should seek a close partnership even after Brexit and concentrate on common interests to reach compromises
• UK still wants to remain in OSCE and G7, doesn't it? At least that's the impression. Well, both organizations have clear rules on taxation of corporations
• Apparently Hammond wants to impress Brussels at the onset of the negotiations. We can calmly ignore it. Instead of creating theatrical thunder UK should put forward a coherent concept of what the future relationship should look like
• Apparently the British government still does not have a plan for Brexit. There is no other way to interpret Hammond's statements

 

[avaya]

As predicted this is not being taken seriously, at least not in Germany.
German (& German EU) MPs' reactions to Hammond's interview:

• Empty threat since UK already has issues with a trade deficit (new tariffs) and a budged deficit (tax breaks)
• Hammond's interview and the threats of self-harm are therefore an expression of UK's helplessness
• Both parties should seek a close partnership even after Brexit and concentrate on common interests to reach compromises
• UK still wants to remain in OSCE and G7, doesn't it? At least that's the impression. Well, both organizations have clear rules on taxation of corporations
• Apparently Hammond wants to impress Brussels at the onset of the negotiations. We can calmly ignore it. Instead of creating theatrical thunder UK should put forward a coherent concept of what the future relationship should look like
• Apparently the British government still does not have a plan for Brexit. There is no other way to interpret Hammond's statements

BRUTAL reality here.

 

[oti]

Apparently Hammond wants to impress Brussels at the onset of the negotiations. We can calmly ignore it. Instead of creating theatrical thunder UK should put forward a coherent concept of what the future relationship should look like

Apparently the British government still does not have a plan for Brexit. There is no other way to interpret Hammond's statements

I love German straightforwardness so much.

 

[Phantast2k]

BRUTAL reality here.

Don't worry. Trump has got your back!

 

[Uzzy]

Human dumpster fire that Trump is, surely it's a good thing that he wants to get a US-UK trade deal? Obviously depending on what that trade deal is, of course.

 

[JonnyDBrit]

Human dumpster fire that Trump is, surely it's a good thing that he wants to get a US-UK trade deal? Obviously depending on what that trade deal is, of course.

Pointless would be the operating word. Trump's offering to have one put together within a few weeks of taking office. So either there's a whole lot of 'informal' talking which will simply piss off the EU negotiators all the more, or there's nothing for about two years after an initial promise until we're actually out, at which point we remember that owe, good trade deals take time.

 

[Uzzy]

Pointless would be the operating word. Trump's offering to have one put together within a few weeks of taking office. So either there's a whole lot of 'informal' talking which will simply piss off the EU negotiators all the more, or there's nothing for about two years after an initial promise until we're actually out, at which point we remember that owe, good trade deals take time.

Weeks is obviously a silly timeframe to get one signed. But the US have signed free trade agreements with other countries in the past, and gone from negotiations starting to implementing the trade deal in just a few years, averaging 3.5 years. Obviously Trump has extra incentive to push through a trade deal too, given his mad rhetoric about wanting the collapse of the EU.

Not that this makes up for the rest of the worries we have to have about Trump's foreign policy, but getting a trade deal done in four years is better than the ten years that Obama was saying, right?

 

[Jackpot]

Don't worry. Trump has got your back!

They really should have put quotation marks round that Putin quote.

 

[JonnyDBrit]

Weeks is obviously a silly timeframe to get one signed. But the US have signed free trade agreements with other countries in the past, and gone from negotiations starting to implementing the trade deal in just a few years, averaging 3.5 years. Obviously Trump has extra incentive to push through a trade deal too, given his mad rhetoric about wanting the collapse of the EU.

Not that this makes up for the rest of the worries we have to have about Trump's foreign policy, but getting a trade deal done in four years is better than the ten years that Obama was saying, right?

Again, either that would signal the beginning of a great deal of informal talks during the 2 years of negotiating our departure from the EU, which last as I understood, we cannot actually negotiate new deals in the midst of. So, that's two years before actual formal talks and negotiations can begin. If Trump and his administration actually abide by the law - which admittedly, given this is Trump, may not be the case - then in the most ideal scenario we get a trade deal put together towards the end of Trump's first (hopefully only) term.

Ultimately though, I do not trust a deal put together by a Trump administration to be good for the UK, especially one they want done 'quick'.

 

[War Peaceman]

Any politician tying themselves to Trump is in dangerous waters. Not only is he going to be beholden to Russia AND US republicans and therefore vulnerable, but he demands subservience and obedience. It is a very risky ploy.

 

[Halph n Halph]

Pointless would be the operating word. Trump's offering to have one put together within a few weeks of taking office. So either there's a whole lot of 'informal' talking which will simply piss off the EU negotiators all the more, or there's nothing for about two years after an initial promise until we're actually out, at which point we remember that owe, good trade deals take time.

Pissing of the EU would be insignificant if we could quickly conclude a mutually beneficial trade deal with the US.
The rhetoric from the EU since June has been fairly hostile up to now so I expect this divorce to be incredibly brutal so I don't think we should observe all the rules laid out by the commission regarding early negotiation with other countries.

 

[War Peaceman]

Pissing of the EU would be insignificant if we could quickly conclude a mutually beneficial trade deal with the US.
The rhetoric from the EU since June has been fairly hostile up to now so I expect this divorce to be incredibly brutal so I don't think we should observe all the rules laid out by the commission regarding early negotiation with other countries.

I hardly think the EU has been hostile. They really want us to stay, they just aren't prepared to destabilise the entire construct for it (by losing one of the four freedoms).

 

[Halph n Halph]

I hardly think the EU has been hostile. They really want us to stay, they just aren't prepared to destabilise the entire construct for it (by losing one of the four freedoms).

Well they have made it quite clear and many posters in this thread have made it quite clear, that they want to show other members that it will hurt if a country chooses to leave.
They don't really want us to stay ( we are a giant pain in the arse tbh) but they are afraid that we will do ok if we leave .

 

[KingSnake]

I'm imagining now May and Trump personally negotiating a trade agreement. Actually I'm pretty sure they will sign one quite fast to satisfy their public. It won't include any useful regimentation except for the fact that Trump on one side and blue-red-white God on the other side are both tremendous negotiators.

 

[kmag]

That's the pound under $1.20

 

[oti]

That's the pound under $1.20

Call me when to pre-order Switch games off Amazon UK plz.

 

[Theonik]

That's the pound under $1.20

Like I said 1.12 by the end of the month.

 

[Starwolf_UK]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b088b853

0655

100 of Britain's leading climate scientists have written a letter to the PM asking her to stand up for global climate research in the face of what they see as Trump's impending assault on the field. Corinne Le Quéré is a professor of climate change science and policy at the University of East Anglia and director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. She is a signatory of the letter.

Not super related to Brexit but given how Theresa May ignores everything else (or acts real petty, see leather trousers) and wants to be in the good books on Donal "CO2 is good for the plants; a scientician told me" Thrump.

That is also a Micheal Gove interview (0810) where he admits he hasn't talked to her since before Christmas but he is a backbencher now so that is not unexpected.

Call me when to pre-order Switch games off Amazon UK plz.

Remember Amazon take payment upon dispatch. However you can bypass this if you buy a gift card and use that balance although if the price drops you're stuck with gift card credit. Also don't forget shipping costs when making the gift card.

Most cards use a worse version of the previous days exchange rate so gauging timing is tough. Don't worry too much or hedge your bets by buying half the balance now and the other half on Wednesday when it goes to 1 or something.

 

[nature boy]

Yeah, May going to align with Trump to bash the EU.

Divide and conquer tactic.

 

[Number45]

The rhetoric from the EU since June has been fairly hostile up to now so I expect this divorce to be incredibly brutal so I don't think we should observe all the rules laid out by the commission regarding early negotiation with other countries.

Where are the US in comparison to the EU in terms of trade with us? I guess there will be certain sectors where the US is more important but in respect to farming, the automotive industry etc. surely the EU is by far the bigger trade partner?

 

[Maledict]

Pissing of the EU would be insignificant if we could quickly conclude a mutually beneficial trade deal with the US.
The rhetoric from the EU since June has been fairly hostile up to now so I expect this divorce to be incredibly brutal so I don't think we should observe all the rules laid out by the commission regarding early negotiation with other countries.

Our trade with the EU is much larger than the USA. Due to the fact that we have a services agreement with the EU, and we are a service based economy, and we are geographically IN Europe, any deal we make with the USA cannot replace that of Europe. It's just not happening - particularly as normal trade deals cover manufacturing, which is not something we do that much of, and don't cover services which form the bulk of our economy.

Furthermore, the idea Europe has been hostile is just bizarre to be frank - I think you need to start reading some other newspapers. The EU didn't want us to go, but respects the decision, and has been playing by the rule book the entire time. They gave us longer than expected before triggering article 50, and they have been absolutely transparent about their side of the table. We, on the other hand, have behaved like a bunch of petulant shits who don't realise we aren't the centre of the world. Some of our statements from the foreign secretary and other members of cabinet have been extremely hostile and unpleasant, as well as outright lie and mistrusts which our right wing press has gobbled up.

Only one side has behaved badly, and I'm afraid it's us.

 

[Halph n Halph]

Where are the US in comparison to the EU in terms of trade with us? I guess there will be certain sectors where the US is more important but in respect to farming, the automotive industry etc. surely the EU is by far the bigger trade partner?

US was 14.5% of UK exports in 2015 without a trade deal .
44% to the EU .

 

[Uzzy]

Furthermore, the idea Europe has been hostile is just bizarre to be frank - I think you need to start reading some other newspapers. The EU didn't want us to go, but respects the decision, and has been playing by the rule book the entire time. They gave us longer than expected before triggering article 50, and they have been absolutely transparent about their side of the table. We, on the other hand, have behaved like a bunch of petulant shits who don't realise we aren't the centre of the world. Some of our statements from the foreign secretary and other members of cabinet have been extremely hostile and unpleasant, as well as outright lie and mistrusts which our right wing press has gobbled up.

Only one side has behaved badly, and I'm afraid it's us.

While I agree with the rest of this, isn't it entirely up to the UK Government to decide when to trigger article 50? It could have been on the 24th of June last year or it could be two decades from now?

 

[CadetMahoney]

While I agree with the rest of this, isn't it entirely up to the UK Government to decide when to trigger article 50? It could have been on the 24th of June last year or it could be two decades from now?

can't remember exactly but max time limit is 2 years grace before they have to trigger it.

 

[RedSparrows]

US was 14.5% of UK exports in 2015 without a trade deal .
44% to the EU .

How do we trade without a trade deal?

By the US having a deal with the EEA/EU or w/e, right?

This is a thing that bugs me: the way 'trade deals' are used as a rhetorical weapon, with the implication that we don't have deals with most of the world via the EU/EEA as it is. As I understand it we do, and our economy has been orientating around these for decades now, and yet we're supposed to be able to fix our economic issues by leaving these and negotiating new ones that, whilst they might be more bespoke for our needs (arguably), are going to be made from a position of far lesser power in terms of collective bargaining. Right? Or am I as ignorant as I fear?

 

[D4Danger]

can't remember exactly but max time limit is 2 years grace before they have to trigger it.

Nobody can make the UK leave until they start the process. The two year window is the time after it's started and that can be extended if everyone agrees.

 

[Maledict]

While I agree with the rest of this, isn't it entirely up to the UK Government to decide when to trigger article 50? It could have been on the 24th of June last year or it could be two decades from now?

It is, but the campaign and government had been clear it would be triggered pretty much instantly after the referendum. If you remember lots of Europe were all for applying pressure on us to start the process before Christmas, but Merkel calmed them down. Whilst it's bad for us that we piss away time floundering and not knowing what's going on, it's also bad for them - they need to get through this as well as us, and our prevacation and idiocy hasn't helped them either.

 

[anonymous_abc]

Don't worry. Trump has got your back!

I thought the Drumpf is against free trade (deals)...

 

[SteveWD40]

It is, but the campaign and government had been clear it would be triggered pretty much instantly after the referendum. If you remember lots of Europe were all for applying pressure on us to start the process before Christmas, but Merkel calmed them down. Whilst it's bad for us that we piss away time floundering and not knowing what's going on, it's also bad for them - they need to get through this as well as us, and our prevacation and idiocy hasn't helped them either.

Which they have no right to do nor mechanism for.

If we don't trigger that's on us, they can't do much about it and I do think there has been some hostility on both sides.

 

[JonathanEx]

I thought the Drumpf is against free trade (deals)...

Schrodinger's Trump. He's simultaneously for good deals, great deals, but all the other deals are bad deals, we shouldn't be doing deals, but we should do deals

 

[oti]

I thought the Drumpf is against free trade (deals)...

Trump is using the UK as his little tool to destabilise the EU.

This is what you are now, UK. A tool for US trade wars and Russian anti-West propaganda.

Well, that's mean I admit. Just frustrating all around.

 

[KingSnake]

I thought the Drumpf is against free trade (deals)...

Who said anything about free trade though? He will make a deal with Britain. It could be 35% tariffs like he threatened BMW.

May would probably take anything to have this "deal" to show in the 2020 campaign.

 

[Mr. Sam]

Hey guys, I don't know if you knew this, but I've got some insider information here...

DONALD TRUMP TALKS OUT OF HIS FUCKING ARSE ALL DAY LONG AND TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT HE'S GOING TO DO FROM WHAT HE SAYS IS A FOOL'S ERRAND

 

[Hasney]

Hey guys, I don't know if you knew this, but I've got some insider information here...

DONALD TRUMP TALKS OUT OF HIS FUCKING ARSE ALL DAY LONG AND TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT HE'S GOING TO DO FROM WHAT HE SAYS IS A FOOL'S ERRAND

SAD!