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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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Daemul

Member
Conservative Party leader preference:
T. May: 36%
B. Johnson: 27%
A. Leadsom: 7%
S. Crabb: 7%
L. Fox: 4%
(via YouGov / Con members surveyed)

Conservative Party leader voting intention, May vs. Johnson runoff:
T. May: 55%
B. Johnson: 38%
(via YouGov / Con members surveyed)

The BoJo NoShow paying off for him, he might dodge the bullet after all.

It just struck me that the best outcome for Boris in this utter clusterfuck would be to run for party leadership and lose lol
 
Ah, ok, thank you. More reading to be done there, this thread has required 4 - 8 additional browser tabs through most of it, very interesting stuff. I mean, tragic, not making light of your problems, but very interesting.

Nah, pretty easy to understand the fascination. I've already joked with family and friends that this is going to basically fuel political studies classes for the next few decades.

Slightly amused to realised that if May manages to win the Conservative leader election, that would make both female PMs Conservatives, but also bearing the initials M and T (in differing orders, admittedly). Is that like a secret set of requirements or something?
 

oti

Banned
To me this sounds like politicians are rejecting him for being different, maybe? And Cameron telling someone to go must mean he should do anything to stay in my book. But that's up to you, Brits. On the other hand it seems like he wasn't really into Remain so he's just as stupid as the others so... maybe Merkel should take over or something. Peacefully.
 

Nordicus

Member
Slightly amused to realised that if May manages to win the Conservative leader election, that would make both female PMs Conservatives, but also bearing the initials M and T (in differing orders, admittedly). Is that like a secret set of requirements or something?
Triggers a set bonus when parliament equips it
 

ogbg

Member
To me this sounds like politicians are rejecting him for being different, maybe? And Cameron telling someone to go must mean he should do anything to stay in my book. But that's up to you, Brits. On the other hand it seems like he wasn't really into Remain so he's just as stupid as the others so... maybe Merkel should take over or something. Peacefully.

I think that's part of it. Not just with politicians but also with the media. I can't really tell if he has no interest in getting his ideas out there or if the media just doesn't report anything he says.
 

Pandy

Member
Well there was this vote last week...

His entire campaign for the UK to remain in the EU for one thing.
Corbyn may not be solely responsible, but he sure as hell has a big chunk of fault for the failure to engage with many Labour voters.

A cross-party failure, and one where the vast, VAST, majority of the blame lies with Cameron.

Again, for those too slow to keep up. I'm not saying Corbyn performed brilliantly in the referendum campaign, I'm just saying that the 'coup' has absolutely nothing to do with the referendum.
If the 'dissenters' gave a damn about the referendum result, they wouldn't be trying to destroy the party at the moment the opposition was going to have a chance to shine against a government that had just buggered the UK for a generation.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...y-boris-johnson-announce-tory-leadership-bids

So looks like we won't have an official announcement until around 9:30 tomorrow morning for May. While Boris will do so around half an hour before the dead lines close.

Does he think he's bidding on an Ebay item or something?
 

Kadayi

Banned
If the next GE is run with pro / anti Brexit parties, and an anti-Brexit party wins, it would be completely legitimate for them to ignore the result of the referendum./I]

You know we're on fixed term elections now right? next one isn't due until may 2020. If you think Article 50 is going to be sat on for 4 years you're tripping.

Even the BBC are pretty much going 'it'sfuckingnothing.gif' about the fall in the markets now:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36661918

So this idea that the UK is plunging off a cliff into despair as hysterically claimed by many is turning out to be a bit of an exaggeration. Probably be a while before it full recovers, but certainly not the death spiral that people were purporting last Friday.
 

oti

Banned
CmJft9aWkAEJJOd.jpg

It's already working lol.
 

Aranath

Member
Theresa May as PM?

I've got to work out my escape as soon as fucking possible.

I sincerely hope there'll be the same kind of (or more) backlash and anger as there was when Brown replaced Blair, because this is ten times worse than that situation.

Ah, who am I kidding? Cameron and his cabinet got voted in for a second term and this clusterfuck happened. The voting majority are nothing if not masochistic it seems.
 

Maledict

Member
A cross-party failure, and one where the vast, VAST, majority of the blame lies with Cameron.

Again, for those too slow to keep up. I'm not saying Corbyn performed brilliantly in the referendum campaign, I'm just saying that the 'coup' has absolutely nothing to do with the referendum.
If the 'dissenters' gave a damn about the referendum result, they wouldn't be trying to destroy the party at the moment the opposition was going to have a chance to shine against a government that had just buggered the UK for a generation.

One of the reasons he is being taken out is because Labour wants a credible pro-Europe stance in any snap general election. Having undermined and sabotaged the Labour Remain campaign, they know they aren't getting that with Jeremy.

The other reason is because when actually going door to door, they keep being told that people won't vote for him in a general election. We've seen polling that shows almost a third of previous labour voters will not vote for him/ That makes it flatly impossible to win, and the likelihood is they will lose seats.

No opposition leader has ever won a GE with their polling numbers being THIS low at this time.
 

NekoFever

Member
You know we're on fixed term elections now right? next one isn't due until may 2020. If you think Article 50 is going to be sat on for 4 years you're tripping.
Parliament can call an election with a 2/3 majority. Or just repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act, which would only require a simple majority. Nothing's fixed.
 

*Splinter

Member
A cross-party failure, and one where the vast, VAST, majority of the blame lies with Cameron.

Again, for those too slow to keep up. I'm not saying Corbyn performed brilliantly in the referendum campaign, I'm just saying that the 'coup' has absolutely nothing to do with the referendum.
If the 'dissenters' gave a damn about the referendum result, they wouldn't be trying to destroy the party at the moment the opposition was going to have a chance to shine against a government that had just buggered the UK for a generation.
I agree, but that's the situation. Either Corbyn goes or Labour continues infighting when they really really need to be preparing for an election.
 

Maledict

Member
On the single market, he will say that access to this is important but not at the cost of freedom of movement

From Boris Johnson. We really are going to completely and utterly destroy our own economy over this man's ambition.
 

mrklaw

MrArseFace
Parliament can call an election with a 2/3 majority. Or just repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act, which would only require a simple majority. Nothing's fixed.

They need a 2/3 majority to make sure that there really is a full consensus for an important decision. Seems logical.
 

efyu_lemonardo

May I have a cookie?
EU to UK apparently: You get NOTHING
Well, not quite nothing, but:

@b_judah
Have been running around the City of London last few days. Here's an update.


Merkel and Brussels have outright already refused an EEA+ agreement that gives UK migration control, passporting and single market access.

What is passporting? All banks registered in UK have a "passport" that allows them to do business with whole EU. The City depends on it.

Base case is Berlin and Brussels plan to insist on an EEA- (i.e. a worse deal than Norway) that excludes passporting, migration controls.

This would however allow services to continue to have access to the singoe market. But not financial services. Mass migration continues.

This is formal offer. But Paris is planning a turn of cynical brilliance - that could at a stroke smite London and restore Paris to glory.

France cynicallly intends to offer Britain an EEA- that excludes passporting, but givs them a migration cap, and single market access.

This is a brilliant move: "you get less Poles, but we want your banks." It would be in France's interests to encourage UK out to get banks.

This would leave some stuff shirt like Crabb in a disastrous position: Paris and Berlin would have handed him a deal only "bad for bankers."

But the cynical French deal would be exactly the kind of cap migration, free movement for us and single market deal that the public want.

The next Tory muchkin leader would then be a hideous position: have his tax base slasshed at by loss of banks as his voters rejoice.

Paris and Frankfurt would emerge as enormous winners by ending passporting. Hugely boosting popularity of French and German leadership.

/British public will be left moronically clapping the huge triumph of a few less Poles and the punishment for "bankers" and tax base slashed.

//City analysts I met look with unbrindled distain on a Tory leadership class they think are simply muppets. No clue what's about to hit them.

CmJft9aWkAEJJOd.jpg

It's already working lol.

FUCK ME
 

PJV3

Member
So we're gonna try to get freedom of movement for guaranteed jobs only, that's about 70% of migrants.

I saw this in the Guardian earlier but it seems to have gone, is it going to be acceptable to the EU?
 

NetMapel

Guilty White Male Mods Gave Me This Tag
Obama's comment on Brexit is "Ohhhhhh.......... How is this going to work?"

Just heard it live during his speech at the Canadian parliament hahaha
 

Pandy

Member
One of the reasons he is being taken out is because Labour wants a credible pro-Europe stance in any snap general election. Having undermined and sabotaged the Labour Remain campaign, they know they aren't getting that with Jeremy.

The other reason is because when actually going door to door, they keep being told that people won't vote for him in a general election. We've seen polling that shows almost a third of previous labour voters will not vote for him/ That makes it flatly impossible to win, and the likelihood is they will lose seats.

No opposition leader has ever won a GE with their polling numbers being THIS low at this time.
Sabotaged. lol. This makes it sound like he was personally setting fire to warehouses full of Remain leaflets.

You are absolutely correct that he is poor Prime Minister material, but as you'll have noticed no one in the party is polling better than he is. Getting rid of him without having a viable alternative is like falling a bit behind in the Tour De France, so you jump off your bike and start running.
They know they don't have a better candidate, which is why they tried to force him to quit rather than use the proper democratic methods of the party. So it's bugger all to do with his Prime Ministerial potential either.

I agree, but that's the situation. Either Corbyn goes or Labour continues infighting when they really really need to be preparing for an election.

Or they could put on their big boy/girl pants and work together to best represent the interests of those who elected them.
There's been little indication of a snap election from any of the Conservatives, and if there is one it'll only be because Labour are in such disarray, as the Conservatives have little to gain otherwise.
 

Kadayi

Banned
Parliament can call an election with a 2/3 majority. Or just repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act, which would only require a simple majority. Nothing's fixed.

Right now in the present climate, it's in no one's interests to call it. The parties need to get their houses in order and both restore public confidence before either could consider going to the polls. To do so now would be extremely unwise.

It's all very well to say 'they could do it' but whether it's actually likely is another matter entirely. Same with the 'ignore the referendum' posts. Sure they could do it, but when you weigh up the pros and cons, what's more likely.?
 

Best

Member
Maybe Boris thinks if he sticks to his guns he'll be guaranteed a loss in the Tory leadership race but at least save face and Leave support in the long term
 

f0rk

Member

In 3-5 years time, assuming Britain has left and been thoroughly screwed over by then, how likely is it the remaining big European powers tear themselves apart picking over the spoils? I've seen articles claiming the rest of the EU should be rejoicing that the British are leaving because we just get in the way of the glorious project, but surely Germany and France are going to put their own best interests first and will no longer have an equal 3rd party to balance it out? Will they really just let the market decide on Paris vs Frankfurt?
 

Maledict

Member
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/29/fear-of-uk-civil-service-paralysis-over-eu-negotiations


No need to worry about the next PM being right wing, it's not like they are getting much done by the looks of it.

The fact the civil service has only seen 18% cuts is an abomination. Local government, already more efficient than central government, has seen cuts of 50%.

I agree we lack the expertise to Brexit - but I don't think it's possible to have the expertise. In all seriousness, we might bankrupt the country just paying lawyers to sort it out. It's so complicated and practically impossible to do, especially within two years. It ook so long just to get Greenland, with its 58K people out, decades ago.

We are , like in so many ways, fucked. Oh, and if the civil service doesn't take any cuts (which it won't be able to, I do agree with them on that) that means further cuts will have to be found from somewhere.


Right now, more than ever in my lifetime, the country needs a statesman (or stateswoman). instead, all we have are political pygmies who will happily walk us off the cliff edge due to a narrow referendum result and the sniff of power. I guess we get the politicians we deserve.
 
In 3-5 years time, assuming Britain has left and been thoroughly screwed over by then, how likely is it the remaining big European powers tear themselves apart picking over the spoils? I've seen articles claiming the rest of the EU should be rejoicing that the British are leaving because we just get in the way of the glorious project, but surely Germany and France are going to put their own best interests first and will no longer have an equal 3rd party to balance it out? Will they really just let the market decide on Paris vs Frankfurt?

Hard to say. Not helped that Germany and France are pushing proposals for EU reform in wake of the vote, but people are also all too ready to misinterpret them to validate the fearmongering. The recent 'superstate' leak is in fact more of an affirmation of existing ideals within the EU, for example.
 

Micael

Member
Hate the media in this country so much. Fuck the Mail.

Not to sound like a snob, but in the defense of the media if you are taking your news from a publication where at the top it says "How a lazy bottom can wreck your health", you are likely not looking for deep, thorough and balanced analysis on news.
 

Izuna

Banned
Honestly, if I know someone by this point is still pro-Leave and rejects the concerns, I simply lose all respect for them.
 

Kathian

Banned
I can't see how that's good for Germany. Paris goes after the banks but suddenly Germany has a major industrial competitor by forcing the UK away from a service bases economy BUT importantly has competitive access to the single market VS Germany. Without free movement as well you get a competitive industrial UK work force.

UK has underestimated how trade deals work though. Am fucking terrified that a gov is going to sign deals with everyone who knocks and ultimately those deals will be one sided (not for us). All these idiots jumping up and down about how X country is interested in a deal but don't seem to get how detailed they are and need to be. Rather sign nothing and go WTO as trade deals are long lasting
 
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