Support NeoGAF

[Acorn]

Conclusion: No matter the outcome UK financial sector is FUCKED and bye bye to banks. London collapses. Banks abandon England.

I wish govts for the past 30 years had actually tried diversifying the economy. Right now the exchequer is gonna be crucified and as usual it'll be balanced by 99/1 cuts vs tax increases.

Leave voters will be the hardest hit again making their own doom.

 

[Nilaul]

I wish govts for the past 30 years had actually tried diversifying the economy. Right now the exchequer is gonna be crucified and as usual it'll be balanced by 99/1 cuts vs tax increases.

Leave voters will be the hardest hit again making their own doom.

The most terrifying part is that this seems to the best case scenario.

The UK will still need to pay for access to single market, while universities and all other areas get nothing in return?

 

[Yamauchi]

The FTSE 100 has erased all post-Brexit losses and is now in positive territory. Nice.

 

[kirblar]

The FTSE 100 has erased all post-Brexit losses and is now in positive territory. Nice.

It hasn't, due to the currency devaluation.

 

[Aki-at]

I wish govts for the past 30 years had actually tried diversifying the economy. Right now the exchequer is gonna be crucified and as usual it'll be balanced by 99/1 cuts vs tax increases.

Leave voters will be the hardest hit again making their own doom.

Rinse and repeat how immigrants are a strain on our economy and services ad nauseam.

 

[Palculator]

It hasn't, due to the currency devaluation.

Yup, against the USD it hasn't and since the FTSE 100 is the more international one that's an important point. Though it does seem to be recovering and the article about the FTSE 100 regaining its losses in GBP gives some insight into why:

The fact that Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty will not be triggered for some time yet also offered investors some reprieve.

Joshua Mahony, an IG analyst, said: "There is a confidence within the City that perhaps the implications to this vote may not be as immediate nor far reaching as many initially thought, providing opportunities for bargain hunters to grab shares at a discount."

Joshua Mahony, an IG analyst, attributed the storming rally to the “usual combination of short-covering and bargain hunting”. Investors also moved to dismiss Brexit fears amid expectations that Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty will not be triggered for some time, leaving the relations between the UK and EU unchanged in the short term.

So, going by this, the point at which article 50 is triggered will be interesting, especially since the original promise was that the referendum would immediately lead to article 50 being triggered by Cameron, an assumption markets were apparently operating on as well.

 

[Tyaren]

With so much talk about London's financial sector and France's evil plan to destroy it, here's a very interesting and informative podcast about this from the Finacial Times:

http://podcast.ft.com/2016/06/29/european-rivals-eye-londons-banking-business/

 

[The Friendly Monster]

I'm with you brother!

I wonder if I should consider moving to Scotland or if it's safer to just go back to Europe... I definitely don't want to go back to Italy but I don't want to learn a third language either.

Maybe Ireland would be the best solution, but I'm not sure that is the best choice for a gay couple.

Any suggestion?

Berlin? Very gay, very good English.

 

[Tommy DJ]

The FTSE 100 has erased all post-Brexit losses and is now in positive territory. Nice.

 

[mulac]

 

[Toxi]

.

 

[Elaugaufein]

On top of that the FTSE 100 is mainly multinationals who can do a Cameron and Peace Out if things go to hell. The 250 is a better measure of how things are looking domestically

 

[jellies_two]

On top of that the FTSE 100 is mainly multinationals who can do a Cameron and Peace Out if things go to hell. The 250 is a better measure of how things are looking domestically

So does that mean in the last 48 hours, the future got substantially brighter?

because during that time the FTSE 250, the "better measure", rose steadily, from 15,000 to 16,000 (+6%) and is therefore 50% of the way to the 17000 that it opened at on the morning of the referendum.

 

[Scaramanger]

So does that mean in the last 48 hours, the future got substantially brighter?

because during that time the FTSE 250, the "better measure", rose steadily, from 15,000 to 16,000 (+6%) and is therefore 50% of the way to the 17000 that it opened at on the morning of the referendum.

The referendum result was a shock and the market reacted to that shock. However until article 50 is invoked and we start the process of leaving nothing really changes so you'd expect the markets to recover to roughly where they where (bar currency fluctuations). The real analysis can start in 2-3 years once we are out and we see where we are then (factoring in both the market and the value of the pound and of course real world implications such as tax revenues, unemployment etc.).

 

[Elaugaufein]

So does that mean in the last 48 hours, the future got substantially brighter?

because during that time the FTSE 250, the "better measure", rose steadily, from 15,000 to 16,000 (+6%) and is therefore 50% of the way to the 17000 that it opened at on the morning of the referendum.

Probably not. Firstly you're ignoring the devaluation of the pound, which effectively discounts British stock for international investment. Second markets consist of both long and short term speculation. The unexpected Brexit result caused a mass sell off of panicked short term investment. After seeing nothing has happened they've come back. Expect the market to crash again as soon as the intention on when to invoke a50 is clear. Things have likely changed not a whit since the result was clear and Cameron resigned (making it clear British politics is a clown car utterly unprepared for a leave vote).

 

[pigeon]

The referendum result was a shock and the market reacted to that shock. However until article 50 is invoked and we start the process of leaving nothing really changes so you'd expect the markets to recover to roughly where they where (bar currency fluctuations). The real analysis can start in 2-3 years once we are out and we see where we are then (factoring in both the market and the value of the pound and of course real world implications such as tax revenues, unemployment etc.).

I don't think this is quite accurate. Current stock prices should still be factoring in probable future outcomes. If you heard that there was a 50% chance that Google would go out of business in a year but everything would be fine until then, you wouldn't expect the stock of Google to stay at its current point. If the markets recovered back to their original point that would imply that people think the out vote probably had no real effect on where the British economy will be in the future, which I suspect is already clearly false.

 

[Croyles]

Not from me.

So, let me get this straight... the leader of the opposition campaigned to stay but secretly wanted to leave, so his party held a non-binding vote to shame him into resigning so someone else could lead the campaign to ignore the result of the non-binding referendum which many people now think was just angry people trying to shame politicians into seeing they'd all done nothing to help them.

Meanwhile, the man who campaigned to leave because he hoped losing would help him win the leadership of his party, accidentally won and ruined any chance of leading because the man who thought he couldn't lose, did - but resigned before actually doing the thing the vote had been about. The man who'd always thought he'd lead next, campaigned so badly that everyone thought he was lying when he said the economy would crash - and he was, but it did, but he's not resigned, but, like the man who lost and the man who won, also now can't become leader. Which means the woman who quietly campaigned to stay but always said she wanted to leave is likely to become leader instead.

Which means she holds the same view as the leader of the opposition but for opposite reasons, but her party's view of this view is the opposite of the opposition's. And the opposition aren't yet opposing anything because the leader isn't listening to his party, who aren't listening to the country, who aren't listening to experts or possibly paying that much attention at all. However, none of their opponents actually want to be the one to do the thing that the vote was about, so there's not yet anything actually on the table to oppose anyway. And if no one ever does do the thing that most people asked them to do, it will be undemocratic and if any one ever does do it, it will be awful.

Clear?

Which has the more ugly political intrigue: The EU, or English Government?

 

[Scaramanger]

I don't think this is quite accurate. Current stock prices should still be factoring in probable future outcomes. If you heard that there was a 50% chance that Google would go out of business in a year but everything would be fine until then, you wouldn't expect the stock of Google to stay at its current point. If the markets recovered back to their original point that would imply that people think the out vote probably had no real effect on where the British economy will be in the future, which I suspect is already clearly false.

There will be a certain amount of future looking but so much trading is short term these days (so much of everything is short term!). Hell there is a large amount of trading done these days by computers looking to make money out of tiny movements.

Either way looking at the markets on a day or over a couple of days/weeks isn't going to give you a good indicator as to what the underlying state of things are.

 

[jellies_two]

I'm just pointing out (again) the difficulty of pinning ones flag to market moves, over short time periods.

First it was the absolute world market crash of $2t (now reversed), then the FTSE 100 market crash, then it was the market crash in FTSE 250 (because the FTSE 100 bounced), now its the market crash in FTSE 250 denominated in dollars not pounds. If the pound recovers, I expect to start reading it is the share price of Barclays that indicates definitive catastrophe.

It might well be the first note in a five year recession, but one thing about recessions is nobody actually knows they have started until they are well underway.

 

[oti]

I'm just pointing out (again) the difficulty of pinning ones flag to market moves, over short time periods.

First it was the absolute world market crash of $2t (now reversed), then the FTSE 100 market crash, then it was the market crash in FTSE 250 (because the FTSE 100 bounced), now its the market crash in FTSE 250 denominated in dollars not pounds. If the pound recovers, I expect to start reading it is the share price of Barclays that indicates definitive catastrophe.

It might well be the first note in a five year recession, but one thing about recessions is nobody actually knows they have started until they are well underway.

Yes, there is a delay to all of this. We're already seeing signals of people spending less money and companies shying away from investing into the UK though.

The rescession won't take long and it won't be pretty.

 

[Croyles]

I'm with you brother!

I wonder if I should consider moving to Scotland or if it's safer to just go back to Europe... I definitely don't want to go back to Italy but I don't want to learn a third language either.

Maybe Ireland would be the best solution, but I'm not sure that is the best choice for a gay couple.

Any suggestion?

Berlin? Very gay, very good English.

Basically this. You will have to learn some German if you want to be more comfortable, but you would definitely get by well enough.

As far as I know, Berlin still has cheap accommodation too, although I think the prices are rising rapidly because of that image.

 

[Shiggy]

So Therese May? Better or worse than Boris or Cameron?

 

[Palculator]

Basically this. You will have to learn some German if you want to be more comfortable, but you would definitely get by well enough.

As far as I know, Berlin still has cheap accommodation too, although I think the prices are rising rapidly because of that image.

As Tyaren suggested in the last thread, Hamburg is great too and spiritually very close to Britain. It's also a city with a lot of tourism so English will get you pretty far, although making friends and such will ultimately require speaking the local language, obviously. I can't say much about its gay community, I'm afraid.

Germany, especially Hamburg. You will feel right at home there. Culturally it isn't far off from Britain, they even love tea there. Also the weather comes unfortunately very close.
This Hamburg street looks as it could also be in London, Manchester, Birmingham...

 

[shinra-bansho]

I'm just pointing out (again) the difficulty of pinning ones flag to market moves, over short time periods.

First it was the absolute world market crash of $2t (now reversed), then the FTSE 100 market crash, then it was the market crash in FTSE 250 (because the FTSE 100 bounced), now its the market crash in FTSE 250 denominated in dollars not pounds. If the pound recovers, I expect to start reading it is the share price of Barclays that indicates definitive catastrophe.

It might well be the first note in a five year recession, but one thing about recessions is nobody actually knows they have started until they are well underway.

Global market resilience isn't particularly bellwether to how the UK domestically fares on exit.

You can pretend that there's some sort of changing of goal posts but it has always been the 250 that's been more relevant to the UK's domestic prospects. And the impact of the devaluation has always been relevant.

Both indices are still down substantially given the weak pound. The way they're tracking and the widened gap between their performance is also indicative.

The 250 has recovered somewhat in this period of quiet. This does not signal everything is rosy.

Freezes in hiring and job losses have been signalled. The weak pound will drive up cost of living.

 

[norinrad]

So Therese May? Better or worse than Boris or Cameron?

For what it's worth, Miss May I think is very competent and far better than Boris and his lackey Gove.

 

[-Plasma Reus-]

The FTSE 100 being positive for now is because people are realising article 50 won't be triggered for at least a month.
Once negotiations start, it'll be downhill again.

 

[jufonuk]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...arket-a-la-carte-say-eu-leaders-a7109141.html

Wait for new leader. Agree to this . Go Norway deal?

 

[d9b]

Here is an example of your typical Brexiter:

EDL Interview - Incoherent Anger, Muslamic Infidels

Lol!

 

[oti]

I just... the irony is just... I have to post this.

https://youtu.be/FkIT6iMeYjE

 

[anonymous_abc]

My dad has been living in Germany for 35 years.
He has now done the previously unthinkable and enquired about German citizenship.

 

[Palculator]

My dad has been living in Germany for 35 years.
He has now done the previously unthinkable and enquired about German citizenship.

Viel Glück!

Edit: Yesterday, some people in the Bundestag were actually floating the idea of making citizenship acquisition easier for Britons living here, though obviously that's just a suggestion at this point. Hope something comes of it!

 

[jufonuk]

I think instead of article 50 being invoked it will be perpetual back and forth.

Status quo will be "be are going to leave one day"

Soon as the leavers calm down .

Norway deal

 

[anonymous_abc]

I think instead of article 50 being invoked it will be perpetual back and forth.

Status quo will be "be are going to leave one day"

Soon as the leavers calm down .

Norway deal

Wouldn't Norway deal require A50 first?

 

[le-seb]

Damn, this thread is moving fast, and I'm very late...

Supporting Scotland's independence before its formal declaration would be contrary to its principles and would probably result in even more complex negotiations, not to mention that both France and Spain could rightfully throw a fit since they also have issues separatist issues. The EU was conceived as a force if stabilisation, not the contrary.

It may be a thing in Spain, but not really in France.

 

[-Plasma Reus-]

If Scotland goes independent, what are the chances of Spain still putting up a fuss?

 

[Dougald]

Damn, this thread is moving fast, and I'm very late...

It may be a thing in Spain, but not really in France.

Corsica?

 

[Meadows]

So Therese May? Better or worse than Boris or Cameron?

May. Calm, collected, experienced, respected.

Wouldn't vote Tory for her like but she's exactly what we need right now in my opinion.

 

[jufonuk]

May. Calm, collected, experienced, respected.

Wouldn't vote Tory for her like but she's exactly what we need right now in my opinion.

She would get a decent deal that doesn't fuck us over but will be realistic. Such as we can't stop freedom of movement for freedom of trade, to do so would ruin this country .

 

[mrklaw]

At least we have a two leadership contests coming up. Bound to be someone that stands on the basis of doing what's right for the country and undoing this holy mess, and not simply doing what's best for themselves or their own political party.


Kind of surprised nobody seems to have said anything about suing the government or seeking a judicial review of the referendum on the basis that it shouldn't have been a simple majority, or to investigate the bare-faced lies and misleading rhetoric that was used throughout. And by surprised I mean not surprised, just depressed.

 

[HazySaiyan]

Wouldn't Norway deal require A50 first?

Yes, the EU won't negotiate until we've invoked Article 50, they've been quite explicit about that.

 

[anonymous_abc]

At least we have a two leadership contests coming up. Bound to be someone that stands on the basis of doing what's right for the country and undoing this holy mess, and not simply doing what's best for themselves or their own political party.


Kind of surprised nobody seems to have said anything about suing the government or seeking a judicial review of the referendum on the basis that it shouldn't have been a simple majority, or to investigate the bare-faced lies and misleading rhetoric that was used throughout. And by surprised I mean not surprised, just depressed.

It's sad that there will be no repercussions for blatantly lying in the lead up to the referendum. Instead one of the biggest liars will end up PM...

 

[mrklaw]

Not from me.

So, let me get this straight... the leader of the opposition campaigned to stay but secretly wanted to leave, so his party held a non-binding vote to shame him into resigning so someone else could lead the campaign to ignore the result of the non-binding referendum which many people now think was just angry people trying to shame politicians into seeing they'd all done nothing to help them.

Meanwhile, the man who campaigned to leave because he hoped losing would help him win the leadership of his party, accidentally won and ruined any chance of leading because the man who thought he couldn't lose, did - but resigned before actually doing the thing the vote had been about. The man who'd always thought he'd lead next, campaigned so badly that everyone thought he was lying when he said the economy would crash - and he was, but it did, but he's not resigned, but, like the man who lost and the man who won, also now can't become leader. Which means the woman who quietly campaigned to stay but always said she wanted to leave is likely to become leader instead.

Which means she holds the same view as the leader of the opposition but for opposite reasons, but her party's view of this view is the opposite of the opposition's. And the opposition aren't yet opposing anything because the leader isn't listening to his party, who aren't listening to the country, who aren't listening to experts or possibly paying that much attention at all. However, none of their opponents actually want to be the one to do the thing that the vote was about, so there's not yet anything actually on the table to oppose anyway. And if no one ever does do the thing that most people asked them to do, it will be undemocratic and if any one ever does do it, it will be awful.

Clear?

Correct, Sir Humphrey




This part is the saddest

ignore the result of the non-binding referendum which many people now think was just angry people trying to shame politicians into seeing they'd all done nothing to help them.

If true (and it has the ring of truth to it), it could have been nipped in the bud by a more positive remain campaign talking to voters, telling them they understand propel feel disenfranchised, and guaranteeing some kind of task force to look into it, while reassuring them that being in Europe actually helps them more than simoly having a single national government which still wouldn't listen to them. Talk about all the protections they get for workers rights etc.

 

[SteveWD40]

May. Calm, collected, experienced, respected.

Wouldn't vote Tory for her like but she's exactly what we need right now in my opinion.

I highly doubt she triggers Article 50 as well. Boris may feel pressured to as he campaigned for it.

Everything said publicly now is bullshit face saving, we just watched Cameron beg Labour to save us from this, you really think the Torys will lose their city friends, major party donars and status for London? It's their base (retired bankers in the home counties etc).

All the backroom chatter is "how the fuck do we dial this back without getting lynched".

 

[guit3457]

If Scotland goes independent, what are the chances of Spain still putting up a fuss?

The only way Spain would allow the entrance of Scotland in the EU is if they leave the EU being in the UK and then getting the independence.

I mean: they have to be outside the EU and independent. In that order.

 

[oti]

France and Spain being against talking to Scotland as of today makes sense. There isn't even much to talk about. The EU can't just assure Scotland they'd definitely get into the EU once they're independent. They can't talk to a nation that's isn't independent at all. What kind of signal would that be? Hearing the First Minister is the friendliest thing the EU can do, but it makes sense that Tusk declined.

 

[-Plasma Reus-]

Seems to be what sturgeon wants. Get independence first and foremost, then rejoin the EU.

She's been dealt the best hand in this whole mess.

 

[Elaugaufein]

At least we have a two leadership contests coming up. Bound to be someone that stands on the basis of doing what's right for the country and undoing this holy mess, and not simply doing what's best for themselves or their own political party.


Kind of surprised nobody seems to have said anything about suing the government or seeking a judicial review of the referendum on the basis that it shouldn't have been a simple majority, or to investigate the bare-faced lies and misleading rhetoric that was used throughout. And by surprised I mean not surprised, just depressed.

There's no chance whatsoever of getting referendum overturned purely on the basis it was a simple majority, that's the fundamental basis of democracy. You'd have to demonstrate some kind of issue that makes simple majority the abridgement of some fundamental right.

And no political operative is going to touch Truth in campaigning without some very well defined and narrow remit because they like being able to lie / mislead / take out of context / make false implications themselves during campaigns.

Even if they did there's the civil liberties issue of : How do you define truth ? Can an opinion even be true or false ? I may honestly believe the earth popped into existence yesterday, so the statement "I believe the earth popped into existence yesterday" is true even though the Earth almost certainly didn't pop into existence yesterday.

I know it's very popular on GAF to define certain opinions as obscene and totally unacceptable and should be legally actionable but it tends to be from people who have political opinions that would have gotten them into serious trouble at some point in the last 150 years. Feh, for all we know the standard liberal political opinions may be viewed as horribly regressive and a sign of societal shame in another 150 years.

 

[mrklaw]

All the backroom chatter is "how the fuck do we dial this back without getting lynched".

Frankly let them be lynched. I would love a rebound leader willing to instantly fall on their sword by doing something to actively stop this. Would actually give me a tiny smidge of respect for that party. But probably what we'll get is political infighting and back room deals.

At minimum I think calling an election would be a start. Allows parties to run on a 'fuck the referendudm' ticket if they want.

Talk to the voters about why they really voted leave. If it was a protest look at the underlying issues. Immigration is clearly one, but is there anything that can be done to reasonably tighten things up around requiring a job before movement of people? Separate the issue of internal EU migration and external - the Syria crisis will have focused attention on immigration again and maybe the two issues are being conflated in some minds.

Talk about how much bullshit the newspapers talk about the EU pulling the strings and Westminster having no control. About how Europe provides investment for poorer regions, protects their workers rights from being eroded, how some of our biggest manufacturing plants come from inward investment which relies on having access to the European market.

Get fucking Martin Lewis on to talk about it - people will probably listen to him more than politicians

People needed to be talked down from the ledge during the referendum campaign but they weren't - they were shouted at. "If you jump it'll fucking hurt you twat" rather than "it doesn't need to be like this, we can make it better"

 

[mrklaw]

There's no chance whatsoever of getting referendum overturned purely on the basis it was a simple majority, that's the fundamental basis of democracy. You'd have to demonstrate some kind of issue that makes simple majority the abridgement of some fundamental right.

And no political operative is going to touch Truth in campaigning without some very well defined and narrow remit because they like being able to lie / mislead / take out of context / make false implications themselves during campaigns.

Even if they did there's the civil liberties issue of : How do you define truth ? Can an opinion even be true or false ? I may honestly believe the earth popped into existence yesterday, so the statement "I believe the earth popped into existence yesterday" is true even though the Earth almost certainly didn't pop into existence yesterday.

I know it's very popular on GAF to define certain opinions as obscene and totally unacceptable and should be legally actionable but it tends to be from people who have political opinions that would have gotten them into serious trouble at some point in the last 150 years. Feh, for all we know the standard liberal political opinions may be viewed as horribly regressive and a sign of societal shame in another 150 years.

There are constitutional issues that equine a 2/3 majority in parliament to change. Isn't leaving the EU and all the work that entails serious enough to require the same safeguards?

 

[le-seb]

Corsica?

Not even. It's just a vocal minority.
Only 10% of Corse people wanted their independence back in 2008, and I doubt things have changed a lot since then.