SporeCrawler
Member
If France leaves, the EU is kaput, Germany wouldn't want to subsidize all the have-not countries all by their lonesome. UK might have already gotten that ball rolling, kind of like when John left the Beattles.
Unlike John Lennon the UK never was a central member to the union but rather an outsider that blocked everything.
Norway has only 5 million people, it's not that big of an economy and thus they don't have much leverage, the UK will get a much better deal if not simply because they have 13 times the population and is a way larger economy.
once again EU still is bigger than UK
The EU has all the leverage.
Ripping away passporting rights would cause the bulk of financial services jobs to move out of this country to the continent.
It is such a huge ace that they have it literally trumps everything else many times over. You are talking £100bn tax revenue.
Moreover that sector will be heavily lobbying the government (whoever it maybe) to bend over to the EU's demands to be able to keep the passport.
This is basic logic. I feel like I'm in some sort of bizzaro world.
My firm already sent us an email on Friday confirming they are evaluating our position with respect to the London office. Some people were told they have to move to Geneva.
This will happen anyways. its illusionary to think that the eurozone will want London to deal eurobonds anymore. they already tried to regulate but lost in front of the european court of justice. now the eurozone has a legitime cause to forbid the dealing on eurobonds as a whole.
Also its not "ripping away". UK is a third country soon. Is there another third country that has passport rights? does a US bank get to trade in the EU freely on the merit of their US license?
If UK falls into a recession it's going to suck for the rest of Europe, and those governments will be held responsible as well because there are going to be a ton of unhappy electorates.
This isn't about whose fault this is. Brexit happened, all the politicians are going to try to make the best situation out of this so they don't lose their jobs.
the European governments can always point fingers to the sovereign decision of the british people. And for whom will it suck more if UK gets into a recession? To UK or to the EU? You are making arguments that dont make any sense anymore. UK is a third country now, EU politicians have no responsibility over them. If Japan is in a recession that sucks for the EU temporarily, but what will companies in EU do then? They will find different markets.