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I've fallen behind in this thread, so forgive me if this has been covered, but to recap, the markets are in freefall, the pound is heading for an all-time low, the UK's credit rating has been downgraded by everyone, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and even Wales are talking about leaving the UK. Meanwhile, leaders of the Leave movement have admitted they have no plan, and that they lied about the promises they made. They've admitted that the £350 million per week will not actually be going to the NHS, and that immigration will really not change. So someone remind me, what's good about Brexit again?

On the plus side, I'm definitely far more versed in UK politics than I was a week ago. I think I'm nearly ready for UK PoliGAF.

 

[Atrophis]

I'm sorry to hear this.

sorry buddy. sit down and take a list of what's most immediate versus shit you cant control. lets be honest, you cant control brexit or your wife. what you can control is you. go talk with some mates, have a few pints, just get yourself comfortable and realise all of this shit is out of our control. fuck em. live your life, do your best to be happy, safe and healthy, and let go of the rest.

ive been where you've been, though i kicked her ass out for being bipolar. the shock came later, and regret, then understanding and finally acceptance. google stages of grief, as well as recently separating from a spouse. you'll begin to understand and perhaps find some answers.

cheers

Thanks for you thoughts.

Just housing situation I'm worried about. We were living in her house so I now have to try and find somewhere I can afford to rent on my own and pay some other cunts mortgage off. I suppose if the housing market crashes I can pick something up cheap in a few years :/

 

[TatteredHat]

I think at this point I would not mind seeing a more integrated EU core of France, Germany and the Benelux.

Although the specifics of how criminal law and such would be decided would obviously be a pretty big issue. Plus I live in the Netherlands and don't want Germany's game censorship laws to be shipped over, pls no.

 

[GamerMax73]

Cameron will have to invoke Art. 50 today. I don't see another way around it. This is getting worse way faster than anyone expected.

Doesn't that risk tanking the economy even further though. As soon as article 50 is triggered there's no way back and years of uncertainty. Remember the 2 year deadline is just for negotiating exit terms, not new trade deals, and there's serious doubts as to whether exit terms can be agreed in that time.

I think we're riding this current storm until September.

 

[pigeon]

You're just completely ignoring that China (and Japan for that matter) are export nations whose economy is build specifically with a weak currency in mind. UK's isn't. And giving it's lack of ressources and focus on luxury exports, the conversion will be very painful.

Other food for thoughts: Germany, which was up till a few years ago the biggest exporter in world, fights for always stronger currency.

Well, that's an exception. Germany has several other countries that have to use the same currency as it. It doesn't have to worry about trade deficits, because Germany can't create a currency imbalance when trading with a country that uses the euro.

That is actually the biggest part of how the euro operates, why Germany wags the dog, and why the smaller countries keep getting screwed by them. It's also why a fiscal union is necessary so that Germany can take some of the tax receipts they generate by selling goods to smaller European countries at prices that undercut their economies and contribute them to social programs and support payments for those smaller countries.

 

[BKK]

I still think people should stop arguing that "the future is unknowable" and just go all the way with that line of argument. After all, we're all Humean froths. The present is unknowable! Arguably the UK economy is doing fine and we're all just being deceived by inexplicable sensory illusions of the pound crashing. There's no way to prove otherwise. We'll just have to agree to disagree.

We can predict to an extent, but when we start getting to ten years, twenty years, you can't predict with any kind of accuracy. The unknowns become too many. We're into the realms of chaos theory then. We can predict broad strokes of how we think society and the economy will evolve, but trying to predict exact figures like GDP or PPP becomes ludicrous.

 

[Joni]

Personally I think that in the 21st century we'll need small nimble economies able to act fast with regards to regulations from new technologies.

It is actually the opposite. You need bigger government that can actually implement regulations on new technologies that play loose with them. You need a force big enough that can get them to follow rules. Small economies lead to a war in lowering taxes to attract companies, putting the actual population in a bind.

I don't think that the EU will be fit for purpose for this. I forsee Europe as being too slow, too regulated, and too bureaucratic to compete with Asia in the 21st century.

China is bureaucracy itself. India, Philippines, ... all fall under the same description. At the same time, how can a small nimble economy push a giant like China to respect its companies?

 

[dabig2]

I've fallen behind in this thread, so forgive me if this has been covered, but to recap, the markets are in freefall, the pound is heading for an all-time low, the UK's credit rating has been downgraded by everyone, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and even Wales are talking about leaving the UK. Meanwhile, leaders of the Leave movement have admitted they have no plan, and that they lied about the promises they made. They've admitted that the £350 million per week will not actually be going to the NHS, and that immigration will really not change. So someone remind me, what's good about Brexit again?

On the plus side, I'm definitely far more versed in UK politics than I was a week ago. I think I'm nearly ready for UK PoliGAF.

It's great for renewing that sense of adventure the country lost long ago.

 

[Primus]

Economically? There is no evidence, and anybody that tells you otherwise is lying. Like you are when you say that I've been arguing that I know what will happen long term.

Ahem.

Labour will be cheaper. If the costs of goods that you import are being exported, then it should cancel itself out.

Direct position, labor costs will be cheaper in the long-term. You have no actual evidence that this will happen.

Yes, the UK has an export market (quite significant in motor vehicles, amongst other things). With a weaker pound that export market will increase (and imports will decrease). The trade balance will improve.

Direct position, UK exports will increase and imports will decrease in the long-term. You have no actual evidence that this will happen.

And in fact, in both cases you were called out by other posters and proceeded to handwave it off.

So let's put the "I'm lying about your arguments" aside, because I most certainly am not. Your own words belie that.

 

[Jisgsaw]

Well, that's an exception. Germany has several other countries that have to use the same currency as it. It doesn't have to worry about trade deficits, because Germany can't create a currency imbalance when trading with a country that uses the euro.

That is actually the biggest part of how the euro operates, why Germany wags the dog, and why the smaller countries keep getting screwed by them. It's also why a fiscal union is necessary so that Germany can take some of the tax receipts they generate by selling goods to smaller European countries at prices that undercut their economies and contribute them to social programs and support payments for those smaller countries.

Germany was also pushing for the DM to be strong before having the Euro.

Germany's strong currency policies has lots of reason, mainly that it needs to import for product to produce high quality product that will be expensive anyway (that and the historical fact that high inflation that can be a likely result of low currency is the devil for them for historical reasons (1933)), but my point was that the "it's good to have weak currency for exports" isn't necessarily telling the whole story.

 

[oti]

I've fallen behind in this thread, so forgive me if this has been covered, but to recap, the markets are in freefall, the pound is heading for an all-time low, the UK's credit rating has been downgraded by everyone, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and even Wales are talking about leaving the UK. Meanwhile, leaders of the Leave movement have admitted they have no plan, and that they lied about the promises they made. They've admitted that the £350 million per week will not actually be going to the NHS, and that immigration will really not change. So someone remind me, what's good about Brexit again?

On the plus side, I'm definitely far more versed in UK politics than I was a week ago. I think I'm nearly ready for UK PoliGAF.

And there's the SHADOW CABINET. Coolest name ever.

 

[LewieP]

Whilst it is obviously worth recognizing what RT is and scrutinizing it appropriately, they do give a platform to plenty of sensible anti-establishment voices who challenge the status quo in the UK, Europe and the USA.

The problem is that they also give a platform to lots of nutters.

It's up to the viewer to distinguish between the two.

I'd strongly contest that UKIP voters are their audience. They are going for the intelligentsia and liberals.

I'd never suggest anyone use RT as their only source of news, but they do often have a fresh take compared to the rest of the media.

 

[Burai]

It's great for renewing that sense of adventure the country lost long ago.

It's like a Famous Five book where the kids are all in their sixties, written by nihilist Enid Blyton.

 

[BKK]

RT is not necessarily left or right. It essentially just pushes narratives that are anti-Western, and particularly anti-Atlanticist. And of course pro-Russian. Which isn't to say everything you will ever find on there is inaccurate, but much of it is.

It's quite funny, they seem to have an eco-agenda in the UK. The love to report on Greenpeace anti-fracking protests. Of course, as a major oil and gas exporter, the possibility of the UK becoming self-sufficient with regards to fuel is something that Russia would rather not happen. As you say, not right or left, just whatever's in Russia's national interest.

 

[Kabouter]

Markets will probably recover a bit today. Oil up, gold down, AEX and DAX futures 1.5%ish up. Pound and euro (very) slightly up.

 

[Screaming Meat]

Can Article 50 be triggered by accident?
I hope it's well guarded.

 

[BKK]

It is actually the opposite. You need bigger government that can actually implement regulations on new technologies that play loose with them. You need a force big enough that can get them to follow rules. Small economies lead to a war in lowering taxes to attract companies, putting the actual population in a bind.


China is bureaucracy itself. India, Philippines, ... all fall under the same description. At the same time, how can a small nimble economy push a giant like China to respect its companies?

Possibly, I guess that we'll have to agree to disagree for now and see what happens. Still, China doesn't have to follow the procedures and rule of law that most other countries do, if they want something to happen, it happens. Same as Philippines, to an extent (thanks to corruption, but that can go both ways). I'll give you India though, getting something done there can take forever.

Ahem.



Direct position, labor costs will be cheaper in the long-term. You have no actual evidence that this will happen.



Direct position, UK exports will increase and imports will decrease in the long-term. You have no actual evidence that this will happen.

And in fact, in both cases you were called out by other posters and proceeded to handwave it off.

So let's put the "I'm lying about your arguments" aside, because I most certainly am not. Your own words belie that.

That's disingenuous. That wasn't a forecast by me, it was simply stating that if X happens, Y should happen.

 

[avaya]

You forgot the part a couple days ago where he asserted that the US would help the UK negotiate trade deals because we depend on them for intelligence and research.

Or that the EU will compromise on freedom of movement. The delusion is strong.

 

[norinrad]

I think at this point I would not mind seeing a more integrated EU core of France, Germany and the Benelux.

Although the specifics of how criminal law and such would be decided would obviously be a pretty big issue. Plus I live in the Netherlands and don't want Germany's game censorship laws to be shipped over, pls no.

Hehehe a German friend wanted me to check if i could install some servers in the Netherlands for him so he and his buddies could gamble on football games outside Germany. He was very serious too but the way he said it had me laughing so hard.

 

[Link]

And there's the SHADOW CABINET. Coolest name ever.

Yeah, I didn't even touch on all the resignations and sackings.

 

[DigtialT]

That wasn't a forecast by me...

stating that if X happens, Y should happen.

 

[mid83]

I've fallen behind in this thread, so forgive me if this has been covered, but to recap, the markets are in freefall, the pound is heading for an all-time low, the UK's credit rating has been downgraded by everyone, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and even Wales are talking about leaving the UK. Meanwhile, leaders of the Leave movement have admitted they have no plan, and that they lied about the promises they made. They've admitted that the £350 million per week will not actually be going to the NHS, and that immigration will really not change. So someone remind me, what's good about Brexit again?

On the plus side, I'm definitely far more versed in UK politics than I was a week ago. I think I'm nearly ready for UK PoliGAF.

I've learned so much about UK politics in the last week. Some friends of mine have wondered why an American should care about this issue, but I think educating yourself about things going on in other counties and continents is something we don't do enough as a society. Plus, my mom is a Spaniard (I have family living in Spain and Germany) so I've always had a vested interest in how things are going in Europe, even at a distance.

Anyways, I hope all the UK folks here don't mind a few of us Americans keeping up with things here. I know we all wish you guys the best in this situation.

 

[Rug Monkey]

EU give us the middle finger. Boris backtracks. Scotland try to get the fuck out. Ireland try to unify and leave us behind. Britain burns. Welcome to your dystopian future.

Anarchy in the DK T Shirt. Union Jack with blue X breaking away, and Boris Johnson with a safety pin through his nose.

 

[GamerMax73]

It is actually the opposite. You need bigger government that can actually implement regulations on new technologies that play loose with them. You need a force big enough that can get them to follow rules. Small economies lead to a war in lowering taxes to attract companies, putting the actual population in a bind.

What I find interesting, following on from that line of argument, is how the European model has been exported to other regions over the past couple of decades. Union of South American Countries, Association of South East Asian Nations, African Union, Arab League.

Seems the world and his dog knows that closer political and economic unions between neighboring states is whats needed in the modern world.

So why does Britain think it can go it alone against these bigger power blocs? Madness.

 

[numble]

That's disingenuous. That wasn't a forecast by me, it was simply stating that if X happens, Y should happen.

By that measure, the economic experts are not making any forecasts. They are simply stating that if X happens, Y should happen.

 

[Mr. Sam]

Everyone on Facebook, even those who know their shit politically and were staunchly pro-Remain, reacting with more ferocity to the fucking football team having a bad game. It's maddening.

 

[BKK]

I mean, your response to expert commentary thus far has been to label an LSE academic's expert opinion as militant, the Economist article is too biased; and to then fall back on the future being undecided and therefore these forecasts and expectations are wrong and we don't know anything can happen. So I'm not sure where in this process one integrates expert opinion into their expectations.

Sorry, I missed this. I never said that his opinion was militant, just that the source which published it seemed to have a bias. I then explained that was not a comment on his impartiality, just that on the spectrum of economic views they seem to pick only the most negative of ones. Anyway, this all started because you posted that article in response to house builder shares falling. My criticism was that the article never mentioned that a decrease in immigration would have a negative affect on demand for new houses. I now realise that it wasn't an article on the UK housing market. My bad. Somehow this has been twisted into me calling the author militant (I never), calling the economist biased (I never), and saying that economic expert's forecats are wrong (I never ... in the short-mid term I said I agree with them). Really, I can't believe how much you've managed to twist everything I've said into the complete opposite. But well done, you've managed to stop the actual debate, and make me waste time correcting your false accusations. I'm off to bed now, good night.

 

[mid83]

Markets will probably recover a bit today. Oil up, gold down, AEX and DAX futures 1.5%ish up. Pound and euro (very) slightly up.

Looks like in the US the Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures are a hair under 1% while the DOW future is slightly 0.15% down.

Hopefully the market stabilizes some today. My 401k has gotten beat down hard since Friday.

 

[norinrad]

Everyone on Facebook, even those who know their shit politically and were staunchly pro-Remain, reacting with more ferocity to the fucking football team having a bad game. It's maddening.

Well there are more important things in life

 

[Primus]

That's disingenuous. That wasn't a forecast by me, it was simply stating that if X happens, Y should happen.

forecast - noun - a statement of what is likely to happen in the future.

 

[RedSparrows]

Everyone on Facebook, even those who know their shit politically and were staunchly pro-Remain, reacting with more ferocity to the fucking football team having a bad game. It's maddening.

On mine it's almost gleeful masochism about the utter embarrassment being apt regarding England's politics.

 

[rokkerkory]

Looks like in the US the Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures are a hair under 1% while the DOW future is slightly 0.15% down.

Hopefully the market stabilizes some today. My 401k has gotten best down hard since Friday.

Same here for the love of god

 

[shinra-bansho]

I have no idea why you still thought that a) the Economist article was purely about housing and building stocks and therefore should discuss immigration at length and think this is worth repeating and b) why you think it was posted purely in relation to this to begin with.

When it was noted in my original post, and then reiterated in another post that it was about how only looking at the FTSE 100 masks the impact on the markets.

 

[mid83]

What I find interesting, following on from that line of argument, is how the European model has been exported to other regions over the past couple of decades. Union of South American Countries, Association of South East Asian Nations, African Union, Arab League.

Seems the world and his dog knows that closer political and economic unions between neighboring states is whats needed in the modern world.

So why does Britain think it can go it alone against these bigger power blocs? Madness.

Lots of people are also nervous about globalization, which I think is one of the many reasons some people voted Leave. They don't like the idea of decisions being made so far away from the local community. Add in cultural differences between nations and it becomes an issue for people when they feel that for example unelected officials of the EU in Brussels is making decisions that affect them in a small town in NE England. That sort of thing scares people.

You see it all the time here in the US regarding federalism (essentially the fight between what powers the federal government should have and what powers are reserved for the states).

I'm not speaking for my own personal beliefs by the way, but rather offering a perspective for one of the many reasons I think people made the decision to leave despite examples of globalization throughout the planet.

 

[Paz]

You know typically the way things work is you read arguments and evidence and then form opinions, not form opinions and then get mad because no experts validate them.

I love this comment so much, that the person you responded to didn't seem to understand its meaning makes it even better.

 

[-Plasma Reus-]

I'm glad to see Juncker has shut up for now. His vindictive leave now comments was not helping the situation. Also we all need to brace ourselves whether you live in the UK or in mainland Europe. It is going to affect us all for years to come. There are no winners here except the filthy rich. Merkel,Rutte and a lot of sensible policymakers are doing the right thing by saying we need to give the UK time to sort out their internal political turmoil first before we start negotiating any deals, as any hasty decisions made now could see the whole EU implode delivering the continent to some nasty right-wing groups who are lurking in every EU country just waiting to disrupt society.

While I agree that vindictive comments don't help anything, the situation is worsened by 'taking time to sort things out'. The longer a decision hasn't been made by the UK, the more it affects the UK economy and the wider european economic community. Everyday, people are losing jobs and money is being lost by both people and businesses.
The thing also is, that there is no such thing as 'making a hasty decision', the only hasty decision made was having the EU referendum in the first place.
Everyone knows full well there is only going to be one of two choices available. Either ignore the EU referendum result, or start article 50 and take the deal the EU presents.
And the longer a decision hasn't been made, the worse off everyone is.

 

[Hasney]

Markets will probably recover a bit today. Oil up, gold down, AEX and DAX futures 1.5%ish up. Pound and euro (very) slightly up.

Dammit, we're just delaying the shoe eating here!

 

[QuicheFontaine]

And there's the SHADOW CABINET. Coolest name ever.

Well, not right now there isn't

 

[Hasney]

Well, not right now there isn't

Please, they're just so shadowy that nobody knows who they are! It's the most shadow of cabinets.

 

[PJV3]

Dammit, we're just delaying the shoe eating here!

We have to make the next bad decision first, we have only just set off on this bad trip.

 

[oti]

George Osborne says "markets will move up and down, but we are in a period of prolonged economic adjustment".

"Life will not be as rosy as it would be inside the EU," the chancellor adds.

He's live on air on BBC Radio 4.

 

[Hasney]

He's live on air on BBC Radio 4.

At least someone finally fucking admitted it in the government rather than being "well placed" like Cameron kept saying.

 

[oti]

"We are absolutely going to have to provide fiscal security to people..."

Does that mean tax rises and spending cuts? "Yes, absolutely," replies the chancellor

Congrats everyone.

 

[ferrasvansen]

Congrats everyone.

Like I said turkeys voting for Christmas, just a pity the others get dragged along.

 

[Dirtyshubb]

And as this government has shown it will be the lower classes that are on the receiving end of those cuts but who cares, we need to make Britain great again...

 

[cabot]

Jeremy Hunt wants leadership? lol

 

[Maledict]

All part of the plan. Like I said, I know I'm in denial mode but can't help it. What the government (and Germany) are doing right now is precisely what you would do if you didn't want to activate article 50 and didn't want to leave the EU. Inflict as much economic pain as possible in the short term in order to avoid the long term catastrophe.

 

[anonymous_abc]

Like I said turkeys voting for Christmas, just a pity the others get dragged along.

So you're telling me the roast potatoes and brussel (he) sprouts voted remain?

 

[Hasney]

And as this government has shown it will be the lower classes that are on the receiving end of those cuts but who cares, we need to make Britain great again...

Unfortunately, I don't think there's much that can be done to get around that right now without a huge tax hike across all pay scales. There simply isn't going to be enough money to go around until we get stable in a few years or whenever.

 

[ferrasvansen]

And as this government has shown it will be the lower classes that are on the receiving end of those cuts but who cares, we need to make Britain great again...

The leave voters are going to get financially obliterated, just a pity millions of remainers might get dragged along too.