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The UK votes to leave the European Union

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BKK

Member
I didn't make it out as an article on the housing market. It's just an element of the domestic market impacted, masked when one only looks at the FTSE 100, as you initially did.

Everything is from the same Economist article. It quotes the Vox article written by the LSE academic.

The Economist article isn't "militant". Good grief. And you claim it mentioned no positive impact, except it does on potential benefits of a weaker pound. But it elaborates accurately on why that isn't some great saviour.

You want people to write about an economic upside, they're not going to as they have no basis to proclaim such.

It's like that strange notion that for "balance" a news report should have both a "scientist" for and against the idea of humans causing global warming, indicating divided opinion.

I certainly don't consider the economist to be "militant". I was just curious about "vox". In economics you can find any point of view to fit your agenda, and from the Brexit coverage of vox it seems that they only like to report the negatives of Brexit. That's not to say that the articles they report on are invalid, just that they seem to take a biased sample of reports.
 

Palculator

Unconfirmed Member
No, if you disagree with something I say, educate me.

Inflation is next to zero, well below the BoE's target. There is plenty of room for inflation. The pound has just devalued by over 10%, do you really think that inflation will exceed that? If you do, then I agree with you. Personally, I don't think that will happen.

To be fair, I'm not saying that it will be neutral for the UK, just that there will be positives and negatives. I'm not saying that those will equal out (for just the UK at least).

There will be a cost (as there is now), but it will be far less than the recent devaluation in the Pound. Regardless of currency markets, I think that this is the smallest issue of all. How much would WTO tariffs - EU membership fees cost? It's something that you'd rather forgo, but certainly not a deal breaker. I would assume that the final settlement would be somewhat better than WTO tariffs.
You ignored this one, though, which actually contains a pretty strong argument against this notion that a magical rise in exports will save the economy:
That's $328.9 billion.

The UK imports $664 billion.

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gbr/#Imports

What the UK imports it isn't gonna stop needing since it's an island. Furthermore, the cost of importing will significantly increase after leaving the EU. On top of that, the pound cratering isn't going to suddenly double exports to match, not exceed, imports. Since the trade balance will not change from imports to exports, the pound's weakness only hurts the UK's economy.
 

oti

Banned
What will the UK magically start exporting? It will never be an industrial powerhouse again and financial services crave stability.

Economies can adapt. The financial sector will take a hit, that's undeniable. That doesn't mean all is lost. A stronger emphasis on exports doesn't have to be a bad thing. Problem will be to make it enticing for companies to invest in the UK.
 

jufonuk

not tag worthy
Just backing down should be sufficient for the EU. They know they've got us by the balls and will never have to offer another concession again.

I wish the Referendum had needed to have all countries in the UK to have the same majority
(Cameron talked to eu before and say if the people decide to go we want to go Norway deal, easy transition)

And it was worded as an opinion poll as such

Should the UK

[]Stay in EU Under current memberships rules

[] Change to Norway style deal - trade with EU and elsewhere

That way It would be able to split the vote and cameron could say this show the EU and the fallout wouldn't be so bad as now.

Bit yes the have us by the balls , if they ruin us it will send the wrong message to those who already do not wish to be in the EU,
it should be one of together we are stonger in the EU.

they know the country is having a melt down that could it could loose then nearly 20% of business .

Nearly half did not want to leave plus the rights of EU citizens in the UK and vice versa and political instability and financial mess it would create by just leaving us out to dry.

To stop any future banking crisis the EU creates a three city banking system Frankfurt and Paris as the Two main and London as the other . for access to the EU markets this could keep trade going and ease financial troubles , on paper no one country has more leverage than the other butbthe EU wins out as the tarrifs go to them in the long run.

We have to as part of the deal sort our poorer areas out and inject funding into the current EU funded projects and develop the poorer areas. The deal is we are able to trade with the EU and any growth from new area they will benefit from as new trade and services can go to them as well as free to trade elsewhere but the EU always has priority.

That doesn't wipeout all the factories /jobs In place already and allows a smoother transition out of the EU and into the The EEA model.

Travel movement etc stay the the same . The deal is done bit it contains so many caveats it keeps businesses and movement going .

UK can spin it as a win. EU come across as forward thinking and when we go EEA we go from pain in the ass trying to get the best deals silent partner still in the club but with less of our attitude/disruption
.EU 2.0 comes into effect after .stopping the other countries that want to go from going .
 

BKK

Member
You ignored this one, though, which actually contains a pretty strong argument against this notion that a magical rise in exports will save the economy:

I didn't ignore it, I just argued that the trade balance would decrease, and that the increase in the price of imported goods should be canceled out if those goods end up getting exported. I also never argued that it would save the economy, just that it would be a positive for exporters (which is why their shares have risen enough to cancel out the decreases in the banking and housing sectors).
 

JP_

Banned
I certainly don't consider the economist to be "militant". I was just curious about "vox". In economics you can find any point of view to fit your agenda, and from the Brexit coverage of vox it seems that they only like to report the negatives of Brexit. That's not to say that the articles they report on are invalid, just that they seem to take a biased sample of reports.
...it's not biased if there are more negatives to report on. It's like complaining about all the climate change reporting being negative.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
I certainly don't consider the economist to be "militant". I was just curious about "vox". In economics you can find any point of view to fit your agenda, and from the Brexit coverage of vox it seems that they only like to report the negatives of Brexit. That's not to say that the articles they report on are invalid, just that they seem to take a biased sample of reports.

is it possible that experts (you know, the globalist lefty scum we're trying our best to ignore) across the board simply think that Brexit is a bad move? Not a mixed move, not a move with some bad and some good, not a good move that has some bad short term, not a necessary move to Keep Britain British, just begin sentence this is not a good idea end sentence?

Because, like, it's not a biased sample of reports to say "Scientists recognize climate change". It's just reality.
 

BKK

Member
...it's not biased if there are more negatives to report on. It's like complaining about all the climate change reporting being negative.

FT, Economist ... cool. But that outlet (who I never really heard of until a few days ago) just had sensationalist headlines of catastrophe one after another. I really don't have an agenda in dissing them, just that the didn't seem to be very level headed on this particular subject.
 

numble

Member
BKK said:
Inflation is next to zero, well below the BoE's target. There is plenty of room for inflation. The pound has just devalued by over 10%, do you really think that inflation will exceed that? If you do, then I agree with you. Personally, I don't think that will happen.
The cost of imported goods will inflate by the drop in the pound--that is not in dispute. Because not all goods are imported, inflation will not of course match the decrease in the pound. Because Britain imports more than it exports, it would have a larger effect than say, when a net exporting country has their currency drop. China exports more than it imports, so a drop in the currency value has lower effect on inflation as it is less dependent on imports. Inflation and higher cost of export will negate export advantages arising from the drop in the pound.

(which is why their shares have risen enough to cancel out the decreases in the banking and housing sectors).

The stock market indices have dropped, not held neutral by positives balancing out negatives.

BKK said:
FT, Economist ... cool. But that outlet (who I never really heard of until a few days ago) just had sensationalist headlines of catastrophe one after another. I really don't have an agenda in dissing them, just that the didn't seem to be very level headed on this particular subject.

So, the London School of Economics is militant. Gotcha.
 

BKK

Member
is it possible that experts (you know, the globalist lefty scum we're trying our best to ignore) across the board simply think that Brexit is a bad move? Not a mixed move, not a move with some bad and some good, not a good move that has some bad short term, not a necessary move to Keep Britain British, just begin sentence this is not a good idea end sentence?

Because, like, it's not a biased sample of reports to say "Scientists recognize climate change". It's just reality.

"Financial experts" are generally right wing. I've never used words like "scum" to describe people I disagree with (politically or financially). Please let's not bring it down to that. Yes, I realise that most economists agree that Brexit will be bad for the economy in the medium to short-term. I agree with them. But personally, I disagree with the long-term forecasts, and I don't think long-term forecasts can be very accurate anyway. I've never said anything like "keep Britain British", please don't accuse me of that. I've spent the last few days convincing my Eastern European friends ands neighbours that they are welcome here, and not to take any notice of the handful of idiots who have made the news by saying otherwise.

Also, economics isn't a science. I'm not a global warming denier, the science is clear. Where I might disagree is that we can stop it. I personally think that we've already passed the tipping point and should be investing our money in protecting ourselves from the inevitable rise in sea levels and changes in weather patterns.
 

jufonuk

not tag worthy
I dunno.
these?

Machines, engines, pumps: US$63.9 billion (13.9% of total exports)
Gems, precious metals: $53 billion (11.5%)
Vehicles: $50.7 billion (11%)
Pharmaceuticals: $36 billion (7.8%)
Oil: $33.2 billion (7.2%)
Electronic equipment: $29 billion (6.3%)
Aircraft, spacecraft: $18.9 billion (4.1%)
Medical, technical equipment: $18.4 billion (4%)
Organic chemicals: $14 billion (3%)
Plastics: $11.8 billion (2.6%)

The UK should invest heavily in expanding output on these

Start up small bit keep increasing . They could create and build factories areas of investment and open them up to some up multinational companies. Some are government own and funded . Power up the banks and funding Wait a minute. Shit shit this cycle could start again.

Gov owned areas then sold off to private firms and argh we just Thatchered ourselves . We will be so busy tryong to kick start it all we won't see this coming .

Fucking hell. Well played tories well played . Cause a revolt in class . Create panic . Work on fixing it staying in the EU as an EEA trade from elsewhere . There will be work alright . London will still hold more wealth and power as I bet all deals done to update the economy flow through it . It in turn will flow through the EU due to them having banking centres in Paris and Frankfurt.
 

CassSept

Member
is it possible that experts (you know, the globalist lefty scum we're trying our best to ignore) across the board simply think that Brexit is a bad move? Not a mixed move, not a move with some bad and some good, not a good move that has some bad short term, not a necessary move to Keep Britain British, just begin sentence this is not a good idea end sentence?

Because, like, it's not a biased sample of reports to say "Scientists recognize climate change". It's just reality.

Psssht, it's all a plan to obfuscate the truth, total leftist propaganda. They are probably all paid off by Soros! As are you, stumpokapow!

How does quitting EU with no plan while having preferential deals and having to renegotiate all trade deals while your economy is melting down and the leadership is in shambles might have only negative impact? I have a gut feeling there must be some good sides to that!
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
"Financial experts" are generally right wing. I've never used words like "scum" to describe people I disagree with (politically or financially). Please let's not bring it down to that. Yes, I realise that most economists agree that Brexit will be bad for the economy in the medium to short-term. I agree with them. But personally, I disagree with the long-term forecasts, and I don't think long-term forecasts can be very accurate anyway. I've never said anything like "keep Britain British", please don't accuse me of that. I've spent the last few days convincing my Eastern European friends ands neighbours that they are welcome here, and not to take any notice of the handful of idiots who have made the news by saying otherwise.

You know typically the way things work is you read arguments and evidence and then form opinions, not form opinions and then get mad because no experts validate them.
 

BKK

Member
You know typically the way things work is you read arguments and evidence and then form opinions, not form opinions and then get mad because no experts validate them.

That's exactly what I do, apart from the get mad bit. If you disagree with something I say, debate it with me, maybe you'll turn me around, or maybe I'll turn you around, or maybe we'll just agree to disagree. It's cool, we don't all have to agree on everything, especially when it comes to stuff where we don't even know the outcome of yet.
 
So the EU is now becoming a giant "superstate?"

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/683739/EU-referendum-German-French-European-superstate-Brexit

Thanks to Matt Drudge for all that he does.


Wow, that's quite something.

If true, then we definitely made the right choice voting for Brexit.

However, I would always urge caution when reading articles in the Express. It's a right wing tabloid that often likes to play fast and loose with the facts.
 

BKK

Member
I find that really hard to believe. I don't see many countries accepting that, infact, Denmark, Sweden, and probably Netherlands would join the UK. Still, the other option was a multi-speed Europe, so maybe they're planning that, with other countries who don't want to participate carrying on how they are now.
 

KonradLaw

Member
So the EU is now becoming a giant "superstate?"

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/683739/EU-referendum-German-French-European-superstate-Brexit

Thanks to Matt Drudge for all that he does.

No. They didn't actually read the damn document. Just reposted false info that was first published on goverment owned polish website that's at this point rivaling communistic propaganda from 30-40 years ago.
In the original document there's noting about loosing the right to have their own army, criminal law, taxation system or central bank. Instead it proposes creating separate structures alongside national ones and further harmonization of differences.

But most of all it's all set up to opt-in system. There are specific mentions of how they dream and long terms plans are integration and all noble BS like that, but they time and time again say that they will create it among the core states of EU, with rest joining or not.

In essence that is direct opposite os superstate. Instead it's what's commonly known as Europe of two speeds, where the few core countries integratate much further, while the others are left as outsiders, sharing some of the benefits, but having much lesser influence in the grand scheme of things.

You can read scans of the document here:
http://www.tvp.info/25939587/europejskie-superpanstwo-zobacz-oryginalny-dokument (ignore the false summaries of the site, just look at the scans).
Germany and France are realists. They know they won't be able to force tight integration. So they will just do it among themselves without waiting for the rest of EU
 

Primus

Member
That's exactly what I do, apart from the get mad bit. If you disagree with something I say, debate it with me, maybe you'll turn me around, or maybe I'll turn you around, or maybe we'll just agree to disagree. It's cool, we don't all have to agree on everything, especially when it comes to stuff where we don't even know the outcome of yet.

What exact evidence would cause you to change your mind?
 

Fritz

Member
If true, then we definitely made the right choice voting for Brexit.

However, I would always urge caution when reading articles in the Express. It's a right wing tabloid that often likes to play fast and loose with the facts.

I think he ment its complete bollocks
 

oti

Banned
If true, then we definitely made the right choice voting for Brexit.

However, I would always urge caution when reading articles in the Express. It's a right wing tabloid that often likes to play fast and loose with the facts.

I find the idea of going to the Visegrad first very odd. Plus an ultimatum? That doesn't make much sense.

After Brexit I expect to see the EU loosen its grip somewhat (in some areas) rather than tighten them to the extreme.
 

norinrad

Member
I'm glad to see Juncker has shut up for now. His vindictive leave now comments was not helping the situation. Also we all need to brace ourselves whether you live in the UK or in mainland Europe. It is going to affect us all for years to come. There are no winners here except the filthy rich. Merkel,Rutte and a lot of sensible policymakers are doing the right thing by saying we need to give the UK time to sort out their internal political turmoil first before we start negotiating any deals, as any hasty decisions made now could see the whole EU implode delivering the continent to some nasty right-wing groups who are lurking in every EU country just waiting to disrupt society.
 
I mean, your response to expert commentary thus far has been to label an LSE academic's expert opinion as militant, the Economist article is too biased; and to then fall back on the future being undecided and therefore these forecasts and expectations are wrong and we don't know anything can happen. So I'm not sure where in this process one integrates expert opinion into their expectations.
 

Palculator

Unconfirmed Member
That sounds too crazy to be true. I can't even imagine France accepting (let alone proposing) losing the right to have its own army, that will never fly.
It sounds crazy because it's conspiracy nonsense that pops up every now and again. Of course, there are always people who bring up the possibility of tighter integration within the EU, as there are people bringing up that of looser, but there's a group of people who then weave these into some narrative of Brussels being out to take their freedom and write articles that make it sound like Juncker is just waiting to press a big red button that saps all 28 (27) member states of their powers whilst they're not looking.
 

BKK

Member
What exact evidence would cause you to change your mind?

With regards to what? I don't like the direction that Europe is headed, I don't like the lack of accountability. Medium to long-term the economic forecast is a marginal loss for the UK outside of the EU. That's if everything carries on as expected.

Personally I think that in the 21st century we'll need small nimble economies able to act fast with regards to regulations from new technologies. I don't think that the EU will be fit for purpose for this. I forsee Europe as being too slow, too regulated, and too bureaucratic to compete with Asia in the 21st century. I'm looking ten, twenty plus years into the future. If it was difficult for the UK to extricate itself from the EU now, how difficult will it be in ten-twenty years time?

So really, I'm not sure that there's any evidence one way or the other on what will happen in the future. Maybe a time traveller?
 
How reliable are RT as a news source? They seem to be reporting on it now too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svERJn9tmIY :eek:

Well, RT links are banned on neogaf, so that should tell you something. It's a state owned and controlled propaganda tool of the Russian government, in a guise of a news channel, that constantly spews lies and bullshit to further whatever agenda best suits Putin.

It's a favorite with the far-right, anti-immigration, anti-EU, UKIP types. You get the idea.
 

Alx

Member
It sounds crazy because it's conspiracy nonsense that pops up every now and again. Of course, there are always people who bring up the possibility of tighter integration within the EU, as there are people bringing up that of looser, but there's a group of people who then weave these into some narrative of Brussels being out to take their freedom and write articles that make it sound like Juncker is just waiting to press a big red button that saps all 28 (27) member states of their powers whilst they're not looking.

Oh ok, makes sense thanks. I keep getting confused by those express articles because we have our own paper here called express that isn't a tabloid...
 
I watched a great piece in RT the other week about English fans framing the Russian fans during the riots in Euro16.
All the Russian fans being arrested were actually just English fans pretending to be Russian....and it was an English newsreader spitting this out with a straight face.
 

Archer

Member
This year. This fucking year. What the hell is going on. This country is going down the fucking drain. My wife left me a few hours ago. I am totally fucked. Please will someone wake me up and tell me this is just a bad nightmare.

sorry buddy. sit down and take a list of what's most immediate versus shit you cant control. lets be honest, you cant control brexit or your wife. what you can control is you. go talk with some mates, have a few pints, just get yourself comfortable and realise all of this shit is out of our control. fuck em. live your life, do your best to be happy, safe and healthy, and let go of the rest.

ive been where you've been, though i kicked her ass out for being bipolar. the shock came later, and regret, then understanding and finally acceptance. google stages of grief, as well as recently separating from a spouse. you'll begin to understand and perhaps find some answers.

cheers
 
Well, RT links are banned on neogaf, so that should tell you something. It's a state owned and controlled propaganda tool of the Russian government, in a guise of a news channel, that constantly spews lies and bullshit to further whatever agenda best suits Putin.

It's a favorite with the far-right, anti-immigration, anti-EU, UKIP types. You get the idea.
Ah, I knew it was russian, but I'm somewhat surprised it's all that stuff as the person in our flat who watches it is left, doesn't have issues with immigration and voted remain XD I guess I'll ask him why he watches it later then because now you've got me curious :3
 

pigeon

Banned
I mean, your response to expert commentary thus far has been to label an LSE academic's expert opinion as militant, the Economist article is too biased; and to then fall back on the future being undecided and therefore these forecasts and expectations are wrong and we don't know anything can happen. So I'm not sure where in this process one integrates expert opinion into their expectations.

You forgot the part a couple days ago where he asserted that the US would help the UK negotiate trade deals because we depend on them for intelligence and research.
 

BKK

Member
Well, RT links are banned on neogaf, so that should tell you something. It's a state owned and controlled propaganda tool of the Russian government, in a guise of a news channel, that constantly spews lies and bullshit to further whatever agenda best suits Putin.

It's a favorite with the far-right, anti-immigration, anti-EU, UKIP types. You get the idea.

lol, I heard that those "leavers" are not only communists, but they're also witches. They should be burnt at the stake!
 

BKK

Member
You've been arguing that the Brexit will not be a terrible thing in the long-term. What exact evidence is required to change your mind on that?

Economically? There is no evidence, and anybody that tells you otherwise is lying. Like you are when you say that I've been arguing that I know what will happen long term.
 

pigeon

Banned
Economically? There is no evidence, and anybody that tells you otherwise is lying. Like you are when you say that I've been arguing that I know what will happen long term.

I still think people should stop arguing that "the future is unknowable" and just go all the way with that line of argument. After all, we're all Humean froths. The present is unknowable! Arguably the UK economy is doing fine and we're all just being deceived by inexplicable sensory illusions of the pound crashing. There's no way to prove otherwise. We'll just have to agree to disagree.
 

Jisgsaw

Member
Exchange rates tend to move to cushion blows. That is, when an economy gets strong, the currency rises, makes exports less competitive, reduces tourism, and so on.
When the currency falls due to a shock, it helps exporters, decreases the demand for luxury goods, etc.
China for example enjoys keeping its currency cheap while also boosting its economy and Switzerland struggled against a very high swiss franc and has even set negative interest rates to try to stop people buying them.

So to say the pound's weakness ONLY hurts the UK economy would be telling just part of the story.
Nobody wants unexpected plunges or rises in exchange rate so about the only thing you can say is 100% unwelcome is the speed of the move.

You're just completely ignoring that China (and Japan for that matter) are export nations whose economy is build specifically with a weak currency in mind. UK's isn't. And giving its lack of both ressources and focus on luxury exports, the conversion will be very painful.

Other food for thoughts: Germany, which was up till a few years ago the biggest exporter in world, fights for always stronger currency.
 

Kabouter

Member
Ah, I knew it was russian, but I'm somewhat surprised it's all that stuff as the person in our flat who watches it is left, doesn't have issues with immigration and voted remain XD I guess I'll ask him why he watches it later then because now you've got me curious :3

RT is not necessarily left or right. It essentially just pushes narratives that are anti-Western, and particularly anti-Atlanticist. And of course pro-Russian. Which isn't to say everything you will ever find on there is inaccurate, but much of it is.
 
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