Oppoi
Member
That's hella smart really that way they have a pro model at the very beginning! Wow!That's the mid gen refresh
Clearly it will be Xbox One GO!
5 minutes and your done.
That's hella smart really that way they have a pro model at the very beginning! Wow!That's the mid gen refresh
Clearly it will be Xbox One GO!
5 minutes and your done.
XboyGamepass Boy?
Ah, they're going full on woke with their next machine, then.Xboy
If that were to happen then how would Microsoft get the 30% cut from third parties and such? And would they still charge for online at that point also?
Do you think Microsoft stands any chance at challenging Sony and Nintendo's reign of dominance in the console market?
ChatGPT
Microsoft has several strategies and assets that position it to challenge Sony and Nintendo in the console market, but it faces significant challenges and competition.
Strengths of Microsoft:
Challenges and Competition:
- Xbox Game Pass: Microsoft's subscription service, Xbox Game Pass, is a major strength. It offers great value by giving subscribers access to a vast library of games, including new releases from Xbox Game Studios, on the day they launch. This model is increasingly attractive to consumers who prefer access over ownership.
- Cloud Gaming: Through Xbox Cloud Gaming (part of Game Pass Ultimate), Microsoft has embraced cloud gaming, allowing players to stream games to various devices without needing powerful hardware. This opens up Xbox gaming to a broader audience beyond traditional console owners.
- Cross-Platform Play: Microsoft has been a leader in promoting cross-platform play, enhancing the appeal of Xbox as a platform that doesn't restrict who you can play with, regardless of whether they're on PC, console, or mobile.
- Acquisitions and Partnerships: Microsoft has aggressively expanded its portfolio of game studios, including the acquisition of Blizzard/Activision and ZeniMax Media, parent company of Bethesda Softworks. These moves, along with others, greatly enhances its game library, making its platforms more attractive.
Future Prospects:
- Brand Loyalty and Market Presence: Sony and Nintendo have very strong brand loyalty and a robust presence in many markets, especially in Japan and parts of Europe. Sony's PlayStation is known for its high-quality exclusives, and Nintendo's consoles appeal through unique hardware and beloved franchises.
- Hardware Sales: While the Xbox Series X and S consoles have performed well, historically, Sony’s PlayStation consoles have outsold Xbox globally. Nintendo's Switch also continues to sell exceptionally well, thanks to its unique hybrid design and strong game lineup.
- Exclusive Content: Sony and Nintendo have a strong lineup of exclusive games which are often system sellers. Microsoft has struggled in this area in past generations, though its recent acquisitions aim to rectify this.
- Market Dynamics: The video game market is rapidly evolving, with mobile gaming and new streaming services altering how and where people play games. Adapting to these changes while still investing in traditional console gaming is a significant challenge.
If Microsoft continues to innovate with services like Game Pass, expand its cloud gaming capabilities, and leverage its studio acquisitions to produce high-quality exclusives, it stands a good chance of increasing its market share and challenging the dominance of Sony and Nintendo. However, overtaking these competitors will require not just matching but exceeding their offerings in terms of game quality, unique features, and overall consumer value.
Give me a probability rating of that actually happening, based on what you know right now.
ChatGPT
Assigning a precise probability rating to Microsoft's potential to challenge or surpass Sony and Nintendo in the console market involves numerous uncertainties and variables, many of which are unpredictable or subject to change. However, I can provide an educated guess based on current trends and industry dynamics.
Given the strength of Microsoft's strategy centered around Xbox Game Pass, its expansion into cloud gaming, and ongoing efforts to broaden its game studio portfolio, Microsoft is positioned to potentially increase its market share. Nevertheless, the entrenched dominance of Sony with PlayStation and Nintendo with its unique console offerings and IPs presents a formidable barrier.
Considering these factors:
Estimated Probability:
- Xbox Game Pass has been successful and is reshaping how players access and purchase games.
- Cloud gaming is still in its early stages and its impact on the traditional console market is not fully clear yet.
- Sony's strong lineup of exclusive games and brand loyalty.
- Nintendo's unique market niche and consistent innovation in game design and hardware.
These probabilities reflect current trends and the effectiveness of Microsoft's strategies. They could shift with new developments in technology, changes in consumer behavior, or strategic moves by any of the companies involved.
- Microsoft significantly challenging Sony and Nintendo: Moderate to High (60-70%). Microsoft could likely increase its competitiveness and market share, particularly in markets where digital services and cloud gaming gain traction.
- Microsoft surpassing both Sony and Nintendo to become the dominant force in the global console market: Low to Moderate (20-30%). This would require not just competitive services and exclusive games, but also gaining significant ground in markets where Sony and Nintendo are deeply entrenched and where consumer habits may be slower to evolve.
What if they created a handheld Xbox device, like the Steam Deck or Lenovo Legion Go?
ChatGPT
Introducing a handheld Xbox device could significantly influence Microsoft's position in the gaming market, particularly against Sony and Nintendo. Here’s how this move might impact the various aspects of Microsoft’s gaming strategy:
Market Expansion:
Synergy with Existing Services:
- A handheld Xbox would directly compete with Nintendo's Switch and the upcoming models like the Steam Deck and Lenovo Legion Go. This could help Microsoft capture a portion of the portable gaming market, which has been growing, especially in regions like Asia where mobile gaming is dominant.
Technological Innovation:
- The integration of Xbox Game Pass and cloud gaming into a handheld device would be a significant selling point. Users could access a large library of games on the go without needing expensive hardware upgrades. This continuity between home console and portable device could attract new customers and retain current ones.
Brand Loyalty and User Base:
- A handheld device would need to balance performance with battery life and portability. Microsoft’s expertise in hardware through its Surface devices could translate into designing a powerful yet efficient handheld gaming device.
Challenges:
- An Xbox handheld could help Microsoft build stronger loyalty among its existing users by offering a more versatile gaming experience. It could also attract new users who prefer portable gaming but want access to Xbox's library and services.
Potential Impact on Probability of Challenging Sony and Nintendo:
- Development and Production Costs: Entering the handheld market requires significant investment in R&D and production. Microsoft would need to ensure these costs are justified by the potential market share gains.
- Market Competition: Nintendo dominates this space with the Switch, and Sony's previous attempts with the PSP and PS Vita provide lessons on the challenges in competing against Nintendo. Moreover, the emerging cloud gaming market with devices like the Steam Deck shows that there is interest, but also that competition is increasing.
- Consumer Interest: While there is a market for handheld gaming, consumer interest in carrying multiple devices or choosing a handheld over a smartphone or a traditional console could vary. Microsoft would need to create a compelling reason for gamers to adopt another device.
Ultimately, a lot would depend on the execution — the device's features, price point, game library, and how well it integrates with Microsoft's gaming ecosystem.
- Introducing a successful handheld Xbox could increase the probability of Microsoft challenging the dominance of Sony and Nintendo. It would enable Microsoft to compete in additional segments of the gaming market and capitalize on its strong services like Xbox Game Pass and cloud gaming.
- This move could potentially increase Microsoft's chances of capturing a larger market share, especially if the device integrates well with their ecosystem and is priced competitively. The probability of Microsoft significantly challenging Sony and Nintendo could potentially rise to a Moderate to High range (70-80%) given the right execution and market conditions.
probability rating of it exceeding 30 million units in sales worldwide?
ChatGPT
To evaluate the likelihood of a hypothetical handheld Xbox device exceeding 30 million units in worldwide sales, we can look at several factors, such as historical sales data of similar devices, market trends, and Microsoft's current market position.
Historical Context
- Nintendo Switch: As a benchmark, the Nintendo Switch, a highly successful portable console, surpassed 30 million units within approximately two years of launch and has continued to sell well, showing strong demand for handheld gaming devices.
- Sony PSP and PS Vita: Sony's PSP was quite successful, selling over 80 million units during its lifetime, while the PS Vita sold significantly fewer units, demonstrating the variability in this market segment.
Factors Influencing Success
- Brand Strength and Market Penetration: Microsoft's Xbox brand is strong in North America and parts of Europe, but less so in Asia, where portable gaming is more popular.
- Product Differentiation: The success of a handheld Xbox would heavily depend on how it differentiates itself from the Nintendo Switch and other portable devices. Features like seamless Game Pass integration, cloud gaming capabilities, and exclusive titles would be crucial.
- Market Conditions at Launch: Timing and market conditions, including economic factors and competition at the time of release, would also play significant roles.
- Price Point: Pricing would need to be competitive to attract a broad audience, especially against the established Nintendo Switch and other emerging portable gaming solutions.
Estimating Probability
Given these considerations:
In summary, the success of a handheld Xbox device in exceeding 30 million units worldwide is feasible but would require exceptionally strong execution on multiple fronts, particularly in market penetration, product differentiation, and pricing strategy. This places the overall probability in a cautiously optimistic range, depending on how well Microsoft addresses these key factors.
- High Scenario: If Microsoft effectively capitalizes on its Game Pass and cloud gaming services, offers a competitively priced and well-differentiated product, and successfully markets the device globally, especially in Asia, the probability of selling over 30 million units could be Moderate (40-50%).
- Low Scenario: Without strong differentiation from the Switch or compelling exclusive content, and if not competitively priced, the probability of reaching such sales figures could be Lower (20-30%).
ChatGPT 4 weighs in:
You jest but I’m going to tell you the Xbox series P (portable) is going to be the name.And while not a lame handheld name I’d go with:
Xbox Series P (P is for Penis)
I think theyd do a great job and be a proper competition to Steam Deck in the way that they have the budget, they have their own huge game library like steam does which means the whole UI etc will be a gaming handheld and not Windows 11 that plays games in windowed mode. That is why i dont like the ROG and others. Feel like im getting ahandheld with all the jank of a PC included.
It’s Big Company SyndromeTMMicrosoft's gaming woes are not due to the form factor of their hardware. They need to remove their shitty corporate culture from their first party studios and (after the former point is complete) spend more money on AAA exclusives. Given how long it took them to shake up 343, I fear they simply cannot move fast enough to do this and will always be playing catch up to their competition (which has 1/10th the resources available).
There are already Windows based handheld devices, like Asus Rog Ally. Even a cut-down version of Windows will still be ... Windows.They could bring a new version of Windows that's designed to work with a handheld?
If a future handheld could deliver Series S performance then it could have access to the entire Xbox back catalogue via Game Pass and could run a version of the Xbox OS. That's not something a Steam Deck can do out of the box and Windows currently isn't designed for handheld gaming devices.There are already Windows based handheld devices, like Asus Rog Ally. Even a cut-down version of Windows will still be ... Windows.
That's why I said there's nothing new that they can bring to the table now. Steam Deck and other Windows-based alternatives have already innovated in that space.
There are already Windows based handheld devices, like Asus Rog Ally. Even a cut-down version of Windows will still be ... Windows.
That's why I said there's nothing new that they can bring to the table now. Steam Deck and other Windows-based alternatives have already innovated in that space.
Rog Ally also comes with Game Pass bundled, so it already kind of does that.If a future handheld could deliver Series S performance then it could have access to the entire Xbox back catalogue via Game Pass and could run a version of the Xbox OS. That's not something a Steam Deck can do out of the box and Windows currently isn't designed for handheld gaming devices.
Plz correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Rog Ally does play all PC Game Pass games, right?You can't play all the Xbox content on windows though. I mean, its pretty damn good but not everything is available. There is absolutely a reason MS should go this route, and after the ROG Ally ill be there day one.
As I said, the Rog Ally is running Windows, so it's not an ideal handheld experience. And xCloud requires a low latency connection. How does that work if I'm on a bus, train or plane?Rog Ally also comes with Game Pass bundled, so it already kind of does that.
And I don't think Game Pass can be the main draw here as (1) we have seen its popularity already going down with GP losing over 3 million subscribers and (2) GPU / xCloud can be used on mobile devices, so GP and its library is already portable.
Tbf the surface I got in 2014 lasted me like 8 yearsThey can’t get it right in a console sized box they certainly won’t in a handheld. MS is useless at hardware.
Plz correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Rog Ally does play all PC Game Pass games, right?
Or are you talking about Xbox-GP-exclusive content?
In that case, sure. But it's such a small thing to target with a dedicated hardware; it'd hardly make business sense. At least in terms of USP/marketing, that's something that just wouldn't resonate with potential buyers. It's not big enough.
Also, most likely their handheld will have Windows, not Xbox OS. Sarah's talk about "forward compatibility" strongly hints at that. I think the new dedicated team is working on ensuring that all Xbox games can work on Windows, and that's how they are ensuring "forward compatibility."
And if they do have Windows in their handheld devices (which I think they will), then we're back to square one.
If that were to happen then how would Microsoft get the 30% cut from third parties and such? And would they still charge for online at that point also?
I brought a legion go, first thing I did was install Linux.A box isn’t necessarily the best shape anymore.
The Nintendo Switch is on track to become the bestselling game console of all time. Sony’s PS5 will likely surpass the Xbox One’s entire lifetime sales later this year. Meanwhile, Microsoft’s newer Xbox Series X and S, with their comparatively disappointing exclusive games, are firmly in third place yet again — and it doesn’t look like Xbox Game Pass will ever fill the gap.
Microsoft isn’t planning to take this lying down. It’s among the largest video game companies in the world now that it owns Activision Blizzard, and it’s going to act. This Thursday, we expect the company to reveal a seismic shift in strategy, one where it could bring Xbox exclusives like Hi-Fi Rush, Starfield, even Indiana Jones to PlayStation and / or Switch.
To Xbox diehards, that might sound a lot like giving up! What’s the point of buying the one box that doesn’t have exclusive games? But there’s a different way Microsoft could demonstrate hardware leadership, build a console worth buying, and fulfill its “play-anywhere” ambitions. Microsoft could harness the incredible flexibility of Windows to build the best Nintendo Switch competitor ever made.
Microsoft could follow the Steam Deck playbook, putting the power of a mini-Xbox in your hands.
Right now, it feels like handheld gaming (not cloud!) is the future, and the world has been waiting for Microsoft to make its move. We tried phones with attached gamepads and cloud portables, but nothing has lit a spark like the dedicated Nintendo Switch and Steam Deck. Handheld PC makers are crying out for a piece of the action, throwing awkward layers atop a bloated Windows operating system for lack of anything better. Microsoft could beat them, or join them, if it’s willing to take the reins.
Imagine if the next Xbox looked like a Steam Deck by way of Microsoft’s design teams: comfortable and sleek at the same time. Imagine an Xbox interface where Microsoft’s PC games, console games, and cloud games live side by side. Imagine if you could simply pick “Play Halo,” wherever you are in the world, your handheld delivering the best version possible — whether that be locally downloaded, streamed from your home Xbox, streamed from the cloud, or possibly more than one simultaneously. Imagine picking up right where you left off on your TV or vice versa, playing with your friends across both Xbox and PC.
We have the technology. Microsoft in particular has the technology. It’s just a little fragmented, waiting for execs and engineers to fit the puzzle pieces together in a single, seamless experience.
If you’re an Xbox Game Pass Ultimate subscriber, you can already download a copy of Halo Infinite to your PC, or Xbox, or stream it from xCloud. The downloaded Xbox copy can already be streamed to a Windows PC over your home network as well. No matter which way you play, your saved games and your friends can typically come along for the ride.
The Asus ROG Ally, and behind it a Steam Deck, Nintendo Switch, and original Game Boy. Photo by Sean Hollister / The Verge
In 2013, I told you how console games and PC games were beginning to seriously merge. That’s when Sony and Microsoft started using AMD processors running on the x86 instruction set to power their hardware. It made it easier than ever for developers to build a single game for PlayStation, Xbox, and PC — and both Microsoft and Sony saw additional opportunity. They started releasing their biggest games on Windows PCs, too. You no longer needed a console to play Halo or God of War, and it seemed like Microsoft preferred it that way.
But when Valve released the Steam Deck, it was Sony, not Microsoft, that capitalized. We wrote how the Steam Deck made PlayStation’s biggest games portable, and how the Steam Deck made us buy games we would have otherwise purchased for Nintendo Switch. But that meant we were buying our games through Steam rather than paying Microsoft.
Sure, there was that 14-step process to get Xbox Cloud Gaming working on the Steam Deck, you could install a half-baked version of Windows at your own risk, and eventually Microsoft helped Valve get games like Forza Horizon 5 and Halo Infinite working on Valve’s handheld well enough to justify a purchase. But it wasn’t the whole package.
Our Asus ROG Ally review had some choice words about using a Windows handheld. Photo by Vjeran Pavic / The Verge
I’ve spent lots of time with both the Asus ROG Ally and Lenovo Legion Go, too, and I can’t recommend either Windows-powered Steam Deck-alike without serious reservations. I find it stunning — and a little embarrassing — how much more accessible Windows games are on the Linux-based Steam Deck than they are on a native Windows machine. And at the end of the day, they’re still propping up Valve’s Steam game store more than Microsoft’s PC Game Pass.
But while that’s partly Microsoft’s fault, it’s also Microsoft’s opportunity, and I bet it can rise to the occasion.
To truly succeed, Microsoft needs more than a Windows handheld with an Xbox app on top. It should play all the Xbox games, not just PC ones. Like the Steam Deck does with Windows games atop Linux, it should run a compatibility layer (or maybe a virtual machine) so your Xbox Series games just work — optimally on a custom chip that gives it better battery life than today’s Windows handhelds.
This should all be within reach. Microsoft is the company that pulled a rabbit out of the hat to make the x86-based Xbox One backward compatible with loads of Xbox 360 games that were designed to run on PowerPC chips. It’s the company that once spent $100 million just to refine its Xbox gamepad. It’s a company that’s repeatedly commissioned semi-custom processors for its Xbox consoles — does anyone think AMD would turn down the opportunity to do a custom part for an Xbox handheld? Would Intel or Nvidia, for that matter?
Such a chip should match the graphical performance of an Xbox Series S, if not an Xbox Series X. While the Steam Deck’s AMD “Aerith” and “Sephiroth” AMD chips don’t, the chips inside the Asus ROG Ally and Lenovo Legion Go already offer more raw teraflops than a Series S when they’re plugged into the wall. If they targeted 720p or 800p resolution when on battery, like the Steam Deck, a new chip should be more than capable of playing current-gen Xbox fare.
Such a handheld might even play next-gen Xbox games if Microsoft’s dreams become reality — by letting the cloud pick up the slack. Hideo Kojima’s OD is being built on Microsoft’s Xbox cloud, and the company had an internal vision for cloud hybrid games by 2028.
Either way, I don’t think Microsoft can afford to miss this coming moment unless it’s abandoning Xbox hardware for good. With “multiple millions” sold, the Steam Deck isn’t a huge threat yet. But if the Nintendo Switch 2 is a success, and Sony decides to make a truly portable PlayStation to join it, Microsoft wouldn’t want to be the only one betting on a box instead.
I'm a fan of handhelds and I'd love to see Microsoft make one, personally.
I wish MS would hurry up and just tell us what their plans are. I know that console manufacturers like to keep cards close to chest to protect their current product lines. That just feels kind of pointless right now. The trajectory isn't going to change overnight as soon as they add COD to GP day 1 (if they ever do). If they are planning and announce a genuine disruptor approach it might get people excited and slow the adoption of PS5 Pro though. If a disruptor approach includes benefits associated with PC like the ability to play Steam games from console and/or dropping paid online, it's something that would certainly get me very interested. And if they did that and publicly disavowed DEI consultants, I would probably be done buying games on PS5 and shifting to a holding pattern until next gen starts.This article is being paid for, and it's to test the waters with public reception. MS loves to do that before a real announcement.
My biggest issue is that to make something truly exciting they would have to fork over real money to make a custom APU because even if they used the latest AMD APUs the gains are not so great over a Steam Deck there's no point in them going with stock APUs and I don't think Microsoft is willing to spend that amount of money on a handheld.My current biggest issue with portable computer handhelds is that most of the time its either
-Beefier hardware and screen at the cost of battery life
-Moderate specs and screen but better battery time
Dont get me wrong, competition is always good and for what its worth, the SteamDeck is currently my goto "sweet spot" as far as these systems go, but I hope that upcoming devices will be able to overpass these painpoints at some point.
Thats not to say we arent getting there yet, but so far this is what holds me back from investing into anything outside of the SteamDeck, I will most likely buy a SteamDeck 2 whenever that may be.
Do I miss not being able to play games held back due to their anticheat? for some of them yes, but honestly, the perks of not dealing with the Windows bloat makes up for it.
So essentially the performance would be most likely similar, except with windows frontend, in theory of courseMy biggest issue is that to make something truly exciting they would have to fork over real money to make a custom APU because even if they used the latest AMD APUs the gains are not so great over a Steam Deck there's no point in them going with stock APUs and I don't think Microsoft is willing to spend that amount of money on a handheld.
Assuming that AMD doesn't crap out a useless yearly update like they did with the 8000 series this year we might get something noteworthy in 2-3 years but the thing is that Valve would most likely have the Steam Deck 2 ready by then with another custom APU.So essentially the performance would be most likely similar, except with windows frontend, in theory of course
I wonder if MS could basically eat up some of the losses á la Valve, but then again it would probably mean trying to lock down the ecosphere into Windows Store/ Xbox game app and we all know how well people react to such...
I dont know, the more I think about it, the less sense it is making for Microsoft to throw in their hat into the mix, considering even the Xbox is left behind more and more by gamers and developers alike.