LegendofJoe
Member
Some real, tangible hope finally.
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Trump at 58% disapproval, per new Quinnipiac poll
- Thread starter Sweeney Tom
- Start date
Mostly on point. For all the handwringing about a Republican controlled Congress not starting an impeachment process, they will discard him once it is clear the base that voted Trump in the primaries is fractured. The Republican Congressmen fear them.
MisterR
Member
Things aren't normalizing with this administration.
Familienoberhauptvogel
Banned
I would have no family
KINGofCRA5H
Member
this guy must be new here?
GuyKazama
Member
There is no such thing. All ballots have a name on them, and that brings them back to reality.
balladofwindfishes
Member
He's had 4 months to "normalize." Four months of a stable economy and relative peace.
This is normal for him. He creates his own chaos because he can't help it. He's petty and dumb.
+16 is more or less in line with what we're seeing in special elections.
There isn't some special impeachment clause that hinges on approval ratings or anything, but a President's approval rating reflects on his party. People don't like Trump = those bad feelings rub off on the Republican party as a whole. Which could mean big pick ups for Democrats in elections. So if Trump's approval rating is in the toilet, elected Republicans are more likely to try and distance themselves from him in order to save their own jobs.
The only thing normalizing is most people realizing he has no master plan, he's just a flailing dumbass. That doesn't speak positive growth to me.
If the GOP didn't gerrymander and suppress everything in their favor, I would agree. The path to 2018 will be incredibly important if Trump hasn't been impeached before then, namely by preventing further voter suppression from occurring and striking it down in various states.
balladofwindfishes
Member
In a +16 situation, gerrymandering would actually harm the GOP more than help. Gerrymandering isn't set up for waves of that size. A billion +5R districts are relatively safe, until you have a +16, or even a +10 wave and suddenly those districts are in trouble, while the +10 district they could have been without gerrymandering would have been more safe.
darkstar0155
Member
Hey at least the chances of dems controlling the house in 2020 is a big likelihood when district lines get drawn again. That's every 10 years right?
Exactly, his disapproval will go up higher in a week after yesterday's Tuesday Night Massacre.
He's going to start a war that's how he's will stop in the next election probably with north Korea or iran i bet
RustyNails
Member
Openly, proudly racist, asshole dipshits like this guy: https://youtu.be/OnPyq3afvGY
TestOfTide
Banned
That means that on average, every House Republican seat that was rated R+16 or less is now in play.
LegendofJoe
Member
State legislatures draw the districts using the data generated by the census. Winning the House won't stop gerrymandering if Democrats don't also win at the state level.
MisterR
Member
Generic ballots are always an indication of the environment elections are taking place in. They are a huge sign of wave elections. If the D's are +16 this time next year, then they are most likely taking the house.
Sweeney Tom
Banned
When it's around low30s and even under the party panics. Basically when you can't even consistently get 35% approval that means even a significant portion of your own base has turned on not only the disliked guy but the party itself, which puts everyone there who's up for re-election on notice that if they stick with/continue to support him they're doomed. Basically it's the Abandon Ship alert
Nixon was under 30 when the party gave up on him and his presidency
MisterR
Member
Yep, a +16 means a wave that Gerrymandering isn't stopping.
DontBeThatGuy
Member
The independents will jump back on board if tax reform manages to get passed, everything else be damned. They're useless like that.
TestOfTide
Banned
Except the gerrymandering can actually BACKFIRE in a wave election.
Gerrymandering involves creating a bunch of seats that are only safe outside of wave elections.
Yep, every census.
They lost the control of the narrative. Don't make them relevant again.
RustyNails
Member
Gerrymandering isnt an issue for 2018. The question of enthusiasm is. Can Dems maintain their enthusiasm till next year? If yes, then GOP is done.
Senate is a difficult and different battle though.
The last fucking thing you want is a war. A wartime president doesn't lose reelection.
"Dont change horses in the middle of a stream." 1864 election.
I'm sure tax reform will be as just as popular and successful with independents as the rest of Trump's legislative agenda has been.
MisterR
Member
Yep, House is in play for sure. The Senate is much tougher.
He's rich, therefore he must be smart. Never forget the "temporarily embarrassed millionaires".
TestOfTide
Banned
This. If Dems manage to translate that +16 edge into 2018 midterms, then Republicans will likely lose:
- enough house seats to flip the house
- Ted Cruz's Senate Seat
- Nevada Senate Seat (forget the senator's name)
- NUMEROUS governor seats across the country
- various state legislatures
- The chance to fill any SCOTUS vacancies with conservative judges.
Netherscourge
Banned
Now, if only the Democrats could find a fresh, new, likable face for the party...
I nominate this man:
I nominate this man:
TumblingHippo
Member
I'm at 9/10... Time to find out the context of this tonight :c
Elfforkusu
Member
Trump may yet do the impossible and unify this country.
(in opposition)
(in opposition)
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
We are in unpredictable times, old conventions simply do not apply anymore. How many moronic posts were there about "oh now that he dropped bombs in Syria his approval is going up 50 points!!!"
sturgboski
Member
The estate tax materially affects me therefore I am against it - non 1%er Republicans who don't understand what the fuck the estate tax actually is and that it will never affect them unless they win the lottery.
Forerunner
Member
The Silver
Member
Fake News, Fake Poll, Fake Thread, Fake GAF, Fake Me.
boiled goose
good with gravy
2018. We have to vote these fuckers out.
You all better be ready to get out and make that happen.
You all better be ready to get out and make that happen.
ratcliffja
Member
He managed to win despite overwhelming odds. People gave him credit for that. Now it's looking more like his intelligence had little to do with him winning.
darkstar0155
Member
ah that's right. Well one can still hope that a big dem wave in 2020 will filter down to state legislatures
Yeah. It's hard to fathom someone who could become president and overcome the odds isn't intelligent. Now they're actually seeing him working though and realize he's all charisma (to a large # of people even if it's not here on Neogaf) and no brains.
DontBeThatGuy
Member
As long as they see a tax cut, they're good, and you best believe they'll be willing to give this moron as many chances as it takes during these next 4 years. (among those that supported him in the first place, that is)
Outdoor Miner
Member
Wait, these numbers are before the Comey disaster? Holy shit.
Yep. You're just asking someone to walk up to him and say, "hold my beer."
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
I know just the thing to turn it around quickly- invite the Russian state controlled puppet media into the Oval Office.
Predicting it drops to low 30's once Comey firing is incorperated.