The numbers I've read before or that with the current state of gerrymandering and other suppression efforts, Dems need about +7 to take the House. So they have a harsh disadvantage, but there's nothing the GOP can do in a situation where they're 16 points down to save themselves. If we get a D+16 election you start nearing the point where the GOP gerrymander backfires, and districts they built to be safe +10, +15 places are falling.
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Trump at 58% disapproval, per new Quinnipiac poll
- Thread starter Sweeney Tom
- Start date
The numbers I've read before or that with the current state of gerrymandering and other suppression efforts, Dems need about +7 to take the House. So they have a harsh disadvantage, but there's nothing the GOP can do in a situation where they're 16 points down to save themselves. If we get a D+16 election you start nearing the point where the GOP gerrymander backfires, and districts they built to be safe +10, +15 places are falling.
Oh, let's be fair, I doubt it's just that
beau_beaumont
Member
Aka basket of deplorables
shawnbuddy
Member
If he started a war it would skyrocket. People like war.
shawnbuddy
Member
In my experience percentage of the population thinks about language very literally, with connections in a straight line, and doesn't "get" things like word association, metaphor, similes. When I was a reporter one day I tried to get people to give me some descriptive "It's hot as" phrases for a story about a hot day. The best I got was "It's hot as fire."
Ok, so I am all for Trump's approval rating going down the shitter, but do people think that firing Comey will really lower it that substantially. I can understand how it would lower in response to healthcare stuff, as that could actually affect his base, but firing Comey would not and many will cheer it as "draining the swamp/being alpha/insert bullshit here."
Sweeney Tom
Banned
http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx Gallup says Trump 40%, Obamacare 55% lol
I'm not sure what impact it'll have, but anecdotally, the Comey thing seems to really bother the softer, center-right conservative part of Trump's base, which is the audience you need to shake to start getting under 35%. A lot of the worst stuff Trump does only makes liberals opposition to him more extreme, while this seems to have some crossover effect on the other side of the aisle.
Trump's a competitive guy. He should try to see if he can get the lowest rating ever since he certainly can't get the highest.
Trump only got elected because he was a meme. If this election was 30 years ago he would had no chance, but internet culture loves a good laugh and making image marcos of his face and twitter quotes.
Trump only got elected because he was a meme. If this election was 30 years ago he would had no chance, but internet culture loves a good laugh and making image marcos of his face and twitter quotes.
Souldriver
Member
My cynical self thinks this as well.
I'd like to be proven wrong though. And who knows, Trump finds a way to sink to new lows every day, so maybe it's possible.
KirbYuuYuu
Member
Baseline
Stop trying to take our politicians! What's wrong with Kamala Harris? She seems cool, ditto on Warren.
What percentage of drivers on your commute are amazingly incompetent assholes?
AstroNut325
Member
Please vote in the midterms and 2017 local elections. PLEASE!
Edit:
Edit:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hr932RsrE-k
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Yeah, an abnormally large portion of the GOP's political beliefs ride on doing whatever agitates liberals the most. It's like they're throwing a temper tantrum before they lose their power as a voting bloc.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Some will cheer it, but I think the overwhelming majority see it for what it is: Trump trying to take out anyone that could expose his (now obviously real) ties to Russia. Trump basically legitimized the necessity of these investigations by firing Comey.
timetokill
Banned
Really curious how many curse words they had to filter out of the word association list
Maybe it's more like, "he's trying my fucking patience/sanity"
Maybe it's more like, "he's trying my fucking patience/sanity"
plagiarize
Banned
It's only going to dip further after we get the fall out of last night. I think there'll still be a shockingly high floor to how low his numbers go, but I don't think we've seen it yet, personally.
That's a three day rolling average, so he's probably lower right now. Also, Rasmussen put out a poll recently which always gives him a bit of a bump, even if his scores are bad for a Rasmussen poll.
That's a three day rolling average, so he's probably lower right now. Also, Rasmussen put out a poll recently which always gives him a bit of a bump, even if his scores are bad for a Rasmussen poll.
Wet Bloodfart
Banned
A little off topic, but is there a resource for me to use to find out when the next election is? I'm speaking for local elections of course. I want to make sure I'm as involved as possible going forward. No excuse for another 2010 debacle.
It's too damned high until his approval is at the most 10% imho (which from what I understand statistics say no matter how horrible a person is they would get over that much percentage. And sadly, I think my parents would still be in that percentage. The worst they've said about a Republican was Bush Jr at the end that he needed to go away cause of his bad rep.. .they still wouldn't call him a bad president or say he did bad things, just that other people seemed to dislike him so he was a distraction).
And I'm also going to be very upset if the GOP manages to clean themselves of him. They should have to have the bad rep stick to them as well. Especially as Trump is more a symptom of how bad the GOP has gotten rather than the cause.
EYEL1NER
Member
I think Vote411 is supposed to be good, but I just put in my address and am not getting back any results. You can search your state on Ballotpedia and find all kinds of elections.
I just voted in the SC District 5 special primaries last week and will vote in the general next month. It's the first time I've ever voted that wasn't in conjunction with a Presidential election. I realized that I've been part of the problem up to now and it was time to change that.
malboroking
Banned
Local election are in 2018, please, please, please go out and vote. Democrats have terrible turnout on non presidential election years.
Escape Goat
Member
Ohh, now they're red flags.
Even before that there are special elections this year.
RPGCrazied
Member
Good. How low does he have to get before Republicans start turning on him in fear of reelections?
Jorok Goldblade
Member
... and there's no way this poll accounts for last night's firing. I look forward to the next round of polls.
If the Ossof election doesn't go in Republicans favor I think that might be their wake up call moment
ForsakenLotus
Member
Still too high, but I wonder how much these numbers will normalize as the firing of Comey story somewhat subsides, at least with his base.
Lord Frieza
Member
It would get a bump from GOP voters maybe, but it definitely would not skyrocket. It didn't even register when he bombed Syria, with many of his alt-right supporter tapping out.
Jorok Goldblade
Member
Firing of Comey was last night. These polls wouldn't be recent enough to account for it - we're talking about surveys potentially taking place a week ago. This is off the back of TrumpCare.
Laevateinn
Member
He likes golf. Lowest score wins right?
Fast Forward
Member
Trump loyalists are beyond reason, and facts.
Trump could literally come on TV tommorow, and say he stole the election, and did so with Russia's help, and Trump loyalists would still defend the man, and approve of his job performance. They would say he had to steal the election to protect us from the criminals, and the terrorists.
ForsakenLotus
Member
Oh, well then damn. Good sign that his base is slowly eroding then.
Unless somehow this bolsters his base? I don't even know.
Lord Frieza
Member
I don't know what the lowest ever is, but Bush ended his second term with like 22% or something like that. But he never got near this low in his first year.
I doubt anyone would ever reach that low. We have too many 'patriots'.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Well... they DO have point.
Good, let them ignore all the warning signs. That would make 2018 and 2020 that much easier.
Lord Frieza
Member
Well... they DO have point.
I mean, they don't. It's a totally different type of poll that measures something entirely different than the election polls
The +16% Dem generic ballot will have them far more spooked than anything Trump does. They'll turn on him the second they realize that their jobs are actually in danger.
I don't know, best I could find is Gallup's charts showing from Truman to now (http://www.gallup.com/poll/116677/p...ings-gallup-historical-statistics-trends.aspx).
And from it, it looks like Nixon with mid 20's (this is only looking at the charts on the lowest each president got, not comparing on similar time in their presidency).
Laevateinn
Member
Well... they DO have point.
The polls measured the national popular vote and weren't significantly off. So, sure, they have a point if you don't understand statistics.