Support NeoGAF

[Deleted member 231381]

GMB/@Survation poll

CON: 43% (-)
LAB: 37% (+3)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-)

For those curious, the big disparity between pollsters right now is coming down to turnout models - their unweighted samples look about the same. When you want to figure out how likely to vote someone is, you have two pieces of information: how likely they say they are, and how likely their demographic is in general. For example, a young person who says they're 100% likely to vote is probably only 70% likely to vote, an older person who says they're 80% likely to vote might be 80% likely to vote. As a pollster, you have to balance between the information this person gives you and how likely it is they're correctly estimating their likelihood to vote.

Models which take people more on their word are showing narrow Conservative leads of about 7 points. Models which don't are leaning to wider leads of 10 points. This is because Corbyn is getting frankly unprecedented certain to vote figures among younger people - young person's turnout would be the highest it has been in decades if people are self-reporting accurately. The question is whether you believe that picture.

 

[Machina]

I'm an Aussie so forgive my ignorance on the political climate over there, but obviously going by the responses in this thread, the chances of Labour winning are almost non existent, but looking at those poll results, what are the odds Labour can claw back enough of the vote before the election to at least get a hung parliament?

 

[Pyroclastic]

I'll post a picture of me eating a picture of jeremy corbyn dipped in nutella if we get a hung parliament. there's a seriously remote chance of it happening even if the polls have tightened. most I'd be willing to entertain is a reduced majority, and even that I don't see happening.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I'm an Aussie so forgive my ignorance on the political climate over there, but obviously going by the responses in this thread, the chances of Labour winning are almost non existent, but looking at those poll results, what are the odds Labour can claw back enough of the vote before the election to at least get a hung parliament?

As a rough estimate, I'd go with "at the lower end of possibilities". If you go on bookies odds, it's about 86% chance of there being a majority versus 14% chance for hung parliament.

 

[Monty Mole]

GMB/@Survation poll

CON: 43% (-)
LAB: 37% (+3)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-)

For those curious, the big disparity between pollsters right now is coming down to turnout models - their unweighted samples look about the same. When you want to figure out how likely to vote someone is, you have two pieces of information: how likely they say they are, and how likely their demographic is in general. For example, a young person who says they're 100% likely to vote is probably only 70% likely to vote, an older person who says they're 80% likely to vote might be 80% likely to vote. As a pollster, you have to balance between the information this person gives you and how likely it is they're correctly estimating their likelihood to vote.

Models which take people more on their word are showing narrow Conservative leads of about 7 points. Models which don't are leaning to wider leads of 10 points. This is because Corbyn is getting frankly unprecedented certain to vote figures among younger people - young person's turnout would be the highest it has been in decades if people are self-reporting accurately. The question is whether you believe that picture.

The one thing the pollsters got wrong last time around is shy Tories. I wonder how they adjusted their models following Milliband's unexpected defeat.

 

[Chinner]

I'm an Aussie so forgive my ignorance on the political climate over there, but obviously going by the responses in this thread, the chances of Labour winning are almost non existent, but looking at those poll results, what are the odds Labour can claw back enough of the vote before the election to at least get a hung parliament?

The young are very passionate for Corbyn, it's just that we're not a reliable vote like the old are.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

The one thing the pollsters got wrong last time around is shy Tories. I wonder how they adjusted their models following Milliband's unexpected defeat.

We already know:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/category/what-went-wrong

Also, Shy Conservatives wasn't the problem last time. There were two problems: firstly, pollsters oversampled the politically interested, and the politically interested holding all other factors constant tend to be more likely to vote Labour; secondly, especially amongst younger people there was a tendency for Labour voters to over-exaggerate their likelihood to vote ("Lazy Labour"). There wasn't some mass of Conservative voters hiding in DK/Refuse to Say, like there was in 1992. Not every polling error is Shy Tories!

 

[PJV3]

The young are very passionate for Corbyn, it's just that we're not a reliable vote like the old are.

Perhaps the older voter will draw the line at fucking things up for themselves and stay at home for a change.

 

[Real Hero]

Perhaps the older voter will draw the line at fucking things up for themselves and stay at home for a change.

Doubtful with brexit

 

[QuicheFontaine]

I'll post a picture of me eating a picture of jeremy corbyn dipped in nutella if we get a hung parliament. there's a seriously remote chance of it happening even if the polls have tightened. most I'd be willing to entertain is a reduced majority, and even that I don't see happening.

Quoting for posterity :-D

 

[PJV3]

Doubtful with brexit

Triple lock and dementia tax might do it, Labour will accept the referendum result so they still get it done, it would be one final grand selfish act.

I'm only talking about the motivation to get out and vote, I'm not expecting them to become liberal minded internationalists.

 

[CTLance]

I'll post a picture of me eating a picture of jeremy corbyn dipped in nutella if we get a hung parliament. (snip)

Why Nutella? Corbyn is clearly the homemade jam type. Tsk tsk.

 

[Dorsal Axe]

Theresa May to relaunch Conservative election campaign amid fears Labour could take lead in opinion polls
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...r-could-take-lead-opinion-polls-a7761136.html

Theresa May is relaunching the Conservative election campaign amid fears Labour could soon take the lead in opinion polls.

Tougher sentences will be handed down to perpetrators of domestic violence against children under plans being set out by the Prime Minister to tackle the "hidden scandal".

It comes after a Tory source told The Daily Mail: "We fully expect to fall behind Labour in a poll in the coming days. It will happen."

Quite impressive, if it comes to fruition, that they managed to blow a 20 point lead.

 

[KingSnake]

If May is able to burn the big lead that Tory had this is a fuck-up that is getting close to Cameron's.

 

[RetroDLC]

How does a party reboot their whole campaign when they're already halfway through their original? Can they put out a revised manifesto? The damage has been done. Also, as for May's newfound focus on 'the hidden scandal' of domestic child abuse, it's not like there are enough community coppers around to handle things as they are.

Don't vote Tory.

Edit: On a tangent, I saw some pro-Corbyn graffiti on the train line (Stevenage to London route) while I traveled to MCM Expo on Saturday.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

The Tories ahead by five or six is a good result for them, in the end, but it would badly damage Tory confidence in May.

Watching some clips of the Victoria Derbyshire program this morning - interesting to note that their little sample group of 150 had a majority in favour of a referendum on the final deal. Hmm.

Saw a lot of Simon Hughes posters and stake boards up in Bermondsey yesterday. Very dominant statements by the Lib Dems. But will we overturn a majority of 4,000?

What I fine interesting is that the Tories have suffered a significant bleed off on their vote, but the polling companies believe that this has benefitted nobody, because Labour's new voters are much more unlikely to vote than they claim, or it has benefitted Labour.

So in the first case my assumption in any normal election is that Tory voters would flip Lib Dem, not Labour.

The fact that that has not happened is indicative of the Lib Dems only being relevant in, say, 50 seats. So because there is no reason to vote Lib Dem in 600/650 seats right now, those voters are sort of milling about.

I think in the end we are likely to see a reduction of the rates of Tory voters voting, rather than a swing to other parties.

 

[Toytown Assassin]

GMB/@Survation poll

CON: 43% (-)
LAB: 37% (+3)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-)

For those curious, the big disparity between pollsters right now is coming down to turnout models - their unweighted samples look about the same. When you want to figure out how likely to vote someone is, you have two pieces of information: how likely they say they are, and how likely their demographic is in general. For example, a young person who says they're 100% likely to vote is probably only 70% likely to vote, an older person who says they're 80% likely to vote might be 80% likely to vote. As a pollster, you have to balance between the information this person gives you and how likely it is they're correctly estimating their likelihood to vote.

Models which take people more on their word are showing narrow Conservative leads of about 7 points. Models which don't are leaning to wider leads of 10 points. This is because Corbyn is getting frankly unprecedented certain to vote figures among younger people - young person's turnout would be the highest it has been in decades if people are self-reporting accurately. The question is whether you believe that picture.

They are also getting up to 20% of their support from previous non voters. People who didn't even bother to vote in last years very high turnout referendum. If those high labour shares are correct turnout is going to be huge this time. 1950's type stuff.

 

[Chinner]

Perhaps the older voter will draw the line at fucking things up for themselves and stay at home for a change.

My parents are Conservative with a big C, and they have openly admitted that the changes to the pension + dementia tax is terrible and could ruin them. Still voting Tory as we need a strong negotiating hand for Brexit and it's for the greater good of the country.

 

[titch]

so are we getting a 'Strong and Stable' reboot?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

They are also getting up to 20% of their support from previous non voters. People who didn't even bother to vote in last years very high turnout referendum. If those high labour shares are correct turnout is going to be huge this time. 1950's type stuff.

Young people and previous non-voters are largely the same demographic.

Spoiler

weeps softly for Ed Miliband

 

[Micael]

My parents are Conservative with a big C, and they have openly admitted that the changes to the pension + dementia tax is terrible and could ruin them. Still voting Tory as we need a strong negotiating hand for Brexit and it's for the greater good of the country.

Still love how people are actually thinking that the party that is blowing this election where they had the upper hand is the party to lead brexit negotiations where they will be at a vast disadvantage
This before getting into the U-turns, the crazy remarks regarding brexit from May or the all around idea that a strong hand instead of flexibility is what is needed to negotiate with an entity many times bigger (and more prepared), oh yeah in case we also forget the party that actually made brexit possible in the first place, although I suspect this is a positive for people still believing leaving the EU is a good thing.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Farron said Labour MPs were “leakier than a leaky sieve” and his party had seen internal projections that put Labour 58 seats down. “It does look like Labour are stacking up votes in places where they don’t actually need them,” he said.

Corbyn getting a bump in vote share but still delivering an exceptionally bad result for Labour in seat numbers is not a good look for future party unity.

 

[Audioboxer]

When the neighbours have different views

 

[nOoblet16]

So it just the left wing echo chamber I am in or does Labour actually have a chance of winning even if it's a small chance ?

When the snap elections were called I thought that a Tory heavy majority was given but that maybe that's unlikely now even if they win.

Although I've found out from a friend campaigning for Labour that in one of the marginal Labour seats in my area the Greens have decided to run for the first time in decades. Which is odd and sort of stupid, especially considering the statement they made that they will try to collaborate as much as possible by not competing in marginal Lib Dem/Labour areas.

 

[Real Hero]

So it just the left wing echo chamber I am in or does Labour actually have a chance of winning even if it's a small chance ?

When the snap elections were called I thought that a Tory heavy majority was given but that maybe that's unlikely now even if they win.

Definitely an echo chamber, Labour are not winning

 

[TomWaitsForNoMan]

So it just the left wing echo chamber I am in or does Labour actually have a chance of winning even if it's a small chance ?

When the snap elections were called I thought that a Tory heavy majority was given but that maybe that's unlikely now even if they win.

I am pretty pro-Corbyn and even I'd say the chance is vanishingly small, and at this point has more to do with whether or not the Tories self-destruct than with Labour's own campaign. So yeah, there's a chance in the same way there's a chance I might get hit by lightning

 

[Morat]

When the neighbours have different views

Must be fun passing on the stairs.

 

[paradox121]

so are we getting a 'Strong and Stable' reboot?

Stable AND Strong

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Labour are going backwards this election - the question is by how much.

Tonight's TV, BTW:

1. Tim Farron is on the One Show at 7pm with his wife, Rosie. (I know very little about his wife actually.) Probably the single biggest TV appearance Farron has ever done. Quite a large chunk of voters watch that show. 7pm BBC1.

2. Nuttall faces Neil at 7:30 on BBC 1 for what is likely to be the make-or-break moment for UKIP. If Nuttall can put up a decent facade of sanity, maybe UKIP don't disintegrate after this election.

3. May and Corbyn face the same panel of voters, but don't face them at the same time and never see each other at all during the show. 8:30, Channel 4.

Corbyn is going to be able to set up the audience well here - he will be asking why May is refusing to have a debate with him. Then May has to come up and have, as usual, no decent answer.

 

[SlipperyFishes]

Labour are going backwards this election - the question is by how much.

Tonight's TV, BTW:

1. Tim Farron is on the One Show at 7pm with his wife, Rosie. (I know very little about his wife actually.) Probably the single biggest TV appearance Farron has ever done. Quite a large chunk of voters watch that show. 7pm BBC1.

2. Nuttall faces Neil at 7:30 on BBC 1 for what is likely to be the make-or-break moment for UKIP. If Nuttall can put up a decent facade of sanity, maybe UKIP don't disintegrate after this election.

3. May and Corbyn face the same panel of voters, but don't face them at the same time and never see each other at all during the show. 8:30, Channel 4.

Corbyn is going to be able to set up the audience well here - he will be asking why May is refusing to have a debate with him. Then May has to come up and have, as usual, no decent answer.

I don't get this. They've been polling well, the opposition has not. How can you say why're going backwards, speaking objectively as someone polling as Lib Dem

 

[TomWaitsForNoMan]

I don't get this. They've been polling well, the opposition has not. How can you say why're going backwards, speaking objectively as someone polling as Lib Dem

They're better off in terms of vote share than they were a month ago, they may even get more votes than they did in 2015, but chances are they're going to lose seats.

 

[Chinner]

I don't get this. They've been polling well, the opposition has not. How can you say why're going backwards, speaking objectively as someone polling as Lib Dem

hes a lib dem.

 

[SlipperyFishes]

hes a lib dem voter.

Who sometimes stands in elections. He's not just a voter.

 

[Chinner]

Who sometimes stands in elections. He's not just a voter.

updated my post. please forgive me.

 

[SlipperyFishes]

updated my post. please forgive me.

Np. I just find it's easier to take anything a member of a political party says (especially one trying to swing your vote) with a mountain of salt. Are Labour polling better? Absolutely. Are they going to win? Unlikely but these "Labour are going backwards" posts seem little more than "butttttt if you vote Lib Dems..." to me.

 

[kmag]

Labour are going backwards this election - the question is by how much.

Tonight's TV, BTW:

1. Tim Farron is on the One Show at 7pm with his wife, Rosie. (I know very little about his wife actually.) Probably the single biggest TV appearance Farron has ever done. Quite a large chunk of voters watch that show. 7pm BBC1.

2. Nuttall faces Neil at 7:30 on BBC 1 for what is likely to be the make-or-break moment for UKIP. If Nuttall can put up a decent facade of sanity, maybe UKIP don't disintegrate after this election.

3. May and Corbyn face the same panel of voters, but don't face them at the same time and never see each other at all during the show. 8:30, Channel 4.

Corbyn is going to be able to set up the audience well here - he will be asking why May is refusing to have a debate with him. Then May has to come up and have, as usual, no decent answer.

Of course Farron has no reason to lie about what's he's heard about Labour internals and canvassing. It's not as if he's got a party which have gotten fuck all bounce in the polls and is totally reliant on keeping the morale of his troops up.

 

[Jezbollah]

They're better off in terms of vote share than they were a month ago, they may even get more votes than they did in 2015, but chances are they're going to lose seats.

The best case scenario based on recent polling is that the Tories "only" gain around 30 seats. Anything lower than that is a huge bonus, as it brings into play disruptive Tory backbenchers.

As much as we were surprised on the last election Exit poll, I really don't think we'll be looking at a hung government come a week next Wednesday.

 

[*Splinter]

Np. I just find it's easier to take anything a member of a political party says (especially one trying to swing your vote) with a mountain of salt. Are Labour polling better? Absolutely. Are they going to win? Unlikely but these "Labour are going backwards" posts seem little more than "butttttt if you vote Lib Dems..." to me.

If they lose seats they're going backwards. It's nice that they'll outperform our ubeleivably low expectations, but Huw's comment was fair.

 

[Oblong Schlong]

Huw Dawson and his partisan rantings do a great job of reminding me that the Lib Dems exist.

Unfortunately, the party is such that he must to do a great job of this every single day, perhaps in perpetuity.

 

[hodgy100]

In a different system I'd love to vote lib dem

 

[Beefy]

Ah Huw Dawson is a member of the Lib Dems? It would explain a lot of the posts.

 

[Pandy]

Theresa May to relaunch Conservative election campaign amid fears Labour could take lead in opinion polls
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...r-could-take-lead-opinion-polls-a7761136.html


Quite impressive, if it comes to fruition, that they managed to blow a 20 point lead.

I suspect they're doubling-down on the 'fear factor' of Corbyn becoming PM, and trying to portray themselves as the underdogs in the campaign to ensure a good turnout from their base.

If they have anything more interesting left in their bag of tricks, they'll have to deploy it by the weekend so that the Sunday papers can run with it. If that's the policy they're relaunching with, it sounds like they might be out of ideas.

 

[*Splinter]

.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

They're better off in terms of vote share than they were a month ago, they may even get more votes than they did in 2015, but chances are they're going to lose seats.

This, exactly.

This has nothing to do with me being a lib dem, folks - I think Labour are likely to lose a couple of seats to us (Cambridge and Bermondsey off the top of my head) but this is all to do with where the Tory vote is and where the Labour vote is.

Labour will gain vote share (they will end up somewhere between +3% or +8% on their 2015 share) but will lose seats to the Tories that have seen an increase of their vote of somewhere between 5 and 8%.

Labour will lose seats this election, and the question is how many seats are they going to lose.

The only thing that would change my mind here is if Corbyn's surge in the polls gets him consistently one or two points ahead of the Conservatives and there is decent evidence that he has pulled in Tory and UKIP voters.

And yes, I am a Liberal Democrat activist who stood for Liverpool City Council last year. The LD situation this election is interesting as it is the first real test of the fightback in a GE - so I tend to bring up the LD side of things here.

 

[RetroDLC]

Theresa May accused of being ‘Donald Trump’s mole’ in Europe after UK tries to water down EU climate change policy.

 

[Ashes]

Do the middle class care about climate change? I think they might do a tad.

Poor May. Only thing she'll have soon is her 'likeability.'

Having said that, if she has the brexit vote, she'll have an awful lot of Labour territories...

 

[avaya]

Theresa May accused of being ‘Donald Trump’s mole’ in Europe after UK tries to water down EU climate change policy.

Merkel just continues to be right.

 

[Breakage]

Anyone watching May speaking right now? She just keeps repeating the same "strong and stable" bollocks again. It's been repeated so many times that it has lost all its meaning.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

I really like the cartoonist at the Guardian - David Squires.

www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-int...ry-poll-lead-national-security-trump-vacation

Talented cartoonist and very funny.

Oh hey May is in Twickenham.

"Corbyn propped up by the Lib Dems in a coalition of chaos" - she has been saying the same thing for a month. And it's still a lie.

 

[Monty Mole]

Anyone watching May speaking right now? She just keeps repeating the same "strong and stable" bollocks again. It's been repeated so many times that it has lost all its meaning.

She's become a parody of herself.