PJV3
Member
May doesn't have all the state assets to flog off or north sea oil to see her through and pay for the tough times.
She will be like Thatcher for one election only in my opinion.
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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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May doesn't have all the state assets to flog off or north sea oil to see her through and pay for the tough times.
She will be like Thatcher for one election only in my opinion.
Huw_Dawson
Member
It's fascinating that this election comes down to a slugfest between a once invincible warship, now with its torpedo tubes destroyed and afire, and a Militant tugboat dragging along the formerly berthed wreck of New Labour.
After this election the war for the final fate of Labour will begin. There are too many Labour MPs who should be sitting in an alliance with the LDs - that will ultimately be the movement that defeats the Tories, not a left-wing Labour one. One win for a centre-left alliance, one act to change the voting laws, and the Tories are blocked from ever returning a majority ever again.
This election should be an easy win for Labour. Cooper, Burnham or Kendall all would have beaten May. :/
Corbyn has done far better than anyone has expected him to, but his defeat is inevitable.
After this election the war for the final fate of Labour will begin. There are too many Labour MPs who should be sitting in an alliance with the LDs - that will ultimately be the movement that defeats the Tories, not a left-wing Labour one. One win for a centre-left alliance, one act to change the voting laws, and the Tories are blocked from ever returning a majority ever again.
This election should be an easy win for Labour. Cooper, Burnham or Kendall all would have beaten May. :/
Corbyn has done far better than anyone has expected him to, but his defeat is inevitable.
Spuck-uk
Banned
Do yourself a favour and only read the Long Read sections they write. Most of the Guardian is opinion pieces and fluff on which is the best organic hummous in Waitrose.
Theonik
Member
Call me an idealist, but I'd rather a defeat under Corbyn if it is to push Labour to the left maybe for a victory in 2022, than a center/right labour government now. My only real concern with Corbyn early on was that he'd have been curb-stomped early on making the left wing message he represents toxic for at least 10 more years.
If he does sufficiently well for that not to happen that is OK with me. His candidacy has started a lot of discussions in the UK political sphere that were well overdue. I'm one for playing the long game you see.
I don't think it's that Corbyn has done well really, it's just that May has done utterly terribly. She's done so badly that the floating voters have been utterly repulsed away from her and they just see Labour as the only other choice in England.
Thatcher was popular with her voting base. Thatcher *still* is popular with her voting base. There's a reason the countries most popular newspapers still praise her regularly.
We on the left have to remember that sometimes. Thatcher is intensely disliked / hated by us, but to a huge amount of the population she's still the person who fixed the economy, won a war, let them buy their own house and then was stabbed in the back by a bunch of treacherous losers.
You won't win those people over by describing her as the most evil person in Britain. There's a reason Blair didn't do that - and why he won such emphatic victories. If you want to persuade people to vote for you, you can't call them evil.
Is this really the point in British history to be playing the long game?
PJV3
Member
I don't agree, once the referendum was lost the Tories were almost guaranteed to win the following election. May any other time would be easy to beat, but the referendum had to be accepted, so Burnham would have the same issue as Corbyn dealing with a fractured electorate etc.
I just can't see enough pro EU Tories jumping ship to a brexit accepting labour party. Corbyn never being leader at all and during the EU referendum is too much to try and work out.
Labour has never been or had a right wing leadership, not even close. Tony Blair did more to tackle left wing priorities (poverty, lack of opportunity, education, national healthcare) than any other prime minster since the 60s. He had the most redistributive government since 60s Harold Wilson.
Dirtyshubb
Member
Why not both?
May did terribly but Corbyn has been quite clear and comes across as genuine in all of the speeches and interviews i have seen since the manifesto came out.
Corbyns real issue is the press refusing to actually focus on the issues and instead dragging all of the attention onto the IRA/Trident/Terrorist issues and even then he has handled them well overall.
If the press were to actually focus on the platforms and the last 7 years of Tory results Corbyn would come across much better i think but of course we dont live in that world.
Spuck-uk
Banned
He's done incredibly considering the complete fuckup that has been the Labour party trying to knife its own back unsuccessfully. Honestly can't think of anyone in the party that could have done better in the situation he was put in.
May has been an absolute shambles as well. She looked so completely unable to deal with anything that wasn't regurgitating soundbites.
Farron is unknown to most of the population and has done nothing when given a golden opportunity by his party being the only outright remain loyalists. Probably doesn't hate the gays but has handled the accusations terribly.
The Conservatives will still win handily because hope is a lie
Huw_Dawson
Member
The LD long game is pretty much predicated on 'Brexit is a stupid idea, it will be proven a stupid idea, and we do not care if 100% of the public agree with us on it or 0% as it does not make an iota of difference to how incredibly stupid an idea it is.'
So if we're right, we want to reap those sweet delicious council seat rewards between 2018 and 2021. And then have Farron (or if needed another leader, but as it stands it could only be Clegg) be able to run the world's biggest WE TOLD YOU SO parade for a GE campaign.
Labour's long game is murkier. Smith and Blair's calculation that Labour could never win from the left still holds true today. But the genie of the left is out of the bottle. So Labour have three options:
1. Engage in a slow and difficult eradication of the left of the party, beginning by removing Corbyn and replacing him with a moderate.
2. Split - the progressives form a new party. IMO this would have to be a split of over half the PLP to the new party to not be a stupid idea. If the new Progressive party and the LDs together make a grouping that can lead the opposition I'd say this was more likely... But I could never see more than 20 MPs jumping ship.
3. Embrace the left. Hope that the Tories collapse in 2022 and a coalition of Labour, the SNP and the LDs can form a government.
- One note, IMO if Corbyn had not won the leadership in 2015, Brexit would not have happened. A more effective Labour party would have been able to rally more of its own voters. Labour has been punished for flubbing two national referenda in a row - AV and Brexit - but the latter is certainly down to Labour failing to provide a strong opposition.
So if we're right, we want to reap those sweet delicious council seat rewards between 2018 and 2021. And then have Farron (or if needed another leader, but as it stands it could only be Clegg) be able to run the world's biggest WE TOLD YOU SO parade for a GE campaign.
Labour's long game is murkier. Smith and Blair's calculation that Labour could never win from the left still holds true today. But the genie of the left is out of the bottle. So Labour have three options:
1. Engage in a slow and difficult eradication of the left of the party, beginning by removing Corbyn and replacing him with a moderate.
2. Split - the progressives form a new party. IMO this would have to be a split of over half the PLP to the new party to not be a stupid idea. If the new Progressive party and the LDs together make a grouping that can lead the opposition I'd say this was more likely... But I could never see more than 20 MPs jumping ship.
3. Embrace the left. Hope that the Tories collapse in 2022 and a coalition of Labour, the SNP and the LDs can form a government.
- One note, IMO if Corbyn had not won the leadership in 2015, Brexit would not have happened. A more effective Labour party would have been able to rally more of its own voters. Labour has been punished for flubbing two national referenda in a row - AV and Brexit - but the latter is certainly down to Labour failing to provide a strong opposition.
Green Yoshi
Member
How stupid is that? Everyone hates Le Pen as well, but not everyone voted for her. I can understand that people are still angry about Blair and his decisions (Iraq war, deregulation, cuts to the social system), but this should be no reason to vote for the Tories instead of Labour.
corbyns performance at least proves that people like his ideas and it will lurch labour to the left and restart conversations about truly progressive economics.
his performance even if ultimately losing proves that he is in fact rather good.
Yeah that corbs has done so well considering the mess Labour has been in is absolutely outstanding.
his performance even if ultimately losing proves that he is in fact rather good.
Yeah that corbs has done so well considering the mess Labour has been in is absolutely outstanding.
PJV3
Member
Tough leaders are a fetish for some people, even if it is an obvious act and there's nothing there.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Yeah I will say fair play to Corbyn - he's got a hard Left Labour party as close to power as it may ever get. I think history will be kind to him, at least in terms of the GE.
Ultimately his manifesto author should be the one applauded.
Ultimately his manifesto author should be the one applauded.
Theonik
Member
If the electorate is bent on suicide there is nothing that can be done. I feel there is some hard lessons that need teaching in there sadly. If people are offered an alternative to suffering 3 times in 2 years and they pick suffering every time I have come to embrace the inevitability of this.
It's either softening Labour's priorities and reaching for the centre that means postponing some of those discussions for maybe another decade or maybe win an election on a left wing platform in 0-5 years. For what it's worth Labour's current manifesto's gone down really well!
I don't dispute this. But you see I am biased. And it's not like bringing back Blair is viable. Or there is anyone in new labour with Blair's charisma to make this a real option.
Spuck-uk
Banned
'Fighting from the centre' fell on its ass in 2015'
FPTP means splitting the party is 50+ years of Tory rules guaranteed.
The manifesto has been amazingly popular, so if Corbs does step down in favour of someone charismatic and willing to push a similarly progressive agenda, that would be fine. Unfortunately that person doesn't seem to exist in the Labour party.
Comedy option #4, install McDonald as PM for a few years just so he can tear strips out of May every week. Make the Beast of Bolsover shadow home secretary, let chaos reign.
Chocolate & Vanilla
Fuck Strawberry
Saw this on Sky news this morning
From The Guardian but I think it says alot about how trying to run this election like a presidential race really hasn't worked for May.
From The Guardian but I think it says alot about how trying to run this election like a presidential race really hasn't worked for May.
Spuck-uk
Banned
Saw this on Sky news this morning
From The Guardian but I think it says alot about how trying to run this election like a presidential race really hasn't worked for May.
I think she saw it working for Trump and just went all in. It worked in the US because Trump has a personality, a shitty one but he's certainly bombastic.
May has all the charisma and public speaking ability of a sock.
Saw this on Sky news this morning
From The Guardian but I think it says alot about how trying to run this election like a presidential race really hasn't worked for May.
It is indeed a bizarre strategy to make it so harshly focused on personality politics when she has never, ever been that charasmatic
I've got many qualms about Corbyn but in the last month, in light of his competition being May-bot, he's come across very well. If she'd made it more of a traditional Party fight, attacking broadly the breadth and depth of Labours current state instead of consistently saying 'LOL Corbyn', she would have stomped them.
Kotetsu534
Member
Hmm, but what does it say if the crippled warship and hopeless tugboat are about to combine for their largest share of the vote in nigh four decades, while the third party's limping towards 10%?
Huw_Dawson
Member
Spuck, it's just a problem that Labour need to solve. If they think they can win from the left, they need to 100% go down that route and divorce themselves from the centre. Otherwise they need to find a position that appeals to 40% of the electorate.
Kotetsu - it says that the current political situation in this country is dire. Every English party is facing severe challenges. Cons have no direction, Labour is split, LDs are still in intensive care, UKIP are in the morgue and 90% of the Green Party is in another party.
It is my belief that the LD poll numbers are down to targeting, fwiw. We have abandoned campaigning in 600-odd seats to concentrate on 25 or so. So don't write us off!
To give you an idea, that is probably a 75% reduction in targeting focus compared to 2010.
Kotetsu - it says that the current political situation in this country is dire. Every English party is facing severe challenges. Cons have no direction, Labour is split, LDs are still in intensive care, UKIP are in the morgue and 90% of the Green Party is in another party.
It is my belief that the LD poll numbers are down to targeting, fwiw. We have abandoned campaigning in 600-odd seats to concentrate on 25 or so. So don't write us off!
To give you an idea, that is probably a 75% reduction in targeting focus compared to 2010.
Spuck-uk
Banned
Oh, absolutely agree, and I think that if anything they've shown that the ideas in the manifesto are more popular than the leader.
Presumably this means the PLP will jettison them as soon as possible like the spiteful failsons they've been for the last 24 months.
So I'm registered, but I haven't received any mail etc. besides being "approved". Should I be worried? Or does polling station information come later?
The fact that this is a possibility gets me riled up.
The fact that this is a possibility gets me riled up.
Huw_Dawson
Member
I will agree with my party leader and say that Corbyn will stay on - I'd put money on that.
There is one glimmer of hope BTW:
May crashes out of EU. Resigns.
Someone else takes over. Let's say it's Rudd.
The FPTA act is repealed.
The Lords begins aggressively blocking the very nasty Tory policy that is put in to right the ship.
Rudd goes to the country for a mandate in 2019.
It's a slim chance but still possible. May won't survive as leader if she crashes out of the EU, and I honestly could not see a new Conservative leader being able to make any major headway rectifying the mess.
There is one glimmer of hope BTW:
May crashes out of EU. Resigns.
Someone else takes over. Let's say it's Rudd.
The FPTA act is repealed.
The Lords begins aggressively blocking the very nasty Tory policy that is put in to right the ship.
Rudd goes to the country for a mandate in 2019.
It's a slim chance but still possible. May won't survive as leader if she crashes out of the EU, and I honestly could not see a new Conservative leader being able to make any major headway rectifying the mess.
Spuck-uk
Banned
Did you honestly think Labour under Milliband or anyone at all centrist was going to push for a new voting system that guaranteed they would lose power. Labour got exactly what they wanted in that referendum (Even if I completely agree and voted for AV)
Lib Dems just got massively outmaneuvered on AV.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Labour rallied only marginally less of their voters than the Liberal Democrats did. 65% of Labour voters went Remain compared to 68% of Liberal Democrat voters. Even if Labour had equalled the Liberal Democrat result at 68% of their own voters, that wouldn't have been enough to change the final result. So you're criticizing Labour for not managing to achieve a feat that even your own party couldn't do. Get your own house in order, Huw.
Dirtyshubb
Member
I just dont know how anyone could argue that Corbyn needs to go.
Dont get me wrong i appreciate the idea of him being tainted, but he has also managed to push past a couple years worth of the worst political garbage thrown at him from the media that i have seen and is currently on track to beat everyone's expectations by quite a margin (and thats without them possibly getting more of a bump down the line).
If Labour lose but come out with a small victory of harming the Tory majority, it would be foolish to get rid of him in my eyes. If the Tories win they are sure to absolutely cause a huge mess with Brexit and the best way to capitalise on that for Labour would be to have the same 'boogie man' as before ready to say "See, what the fuck did i tell you?" and be ready to push the agenda again.
At that point May and the Tories look horrible and the once ridiculed opposition is suddenly right and ready to help change things for the better.
If you suddenly swap in some unknown, people arent going to care but if you can change that narrative you could use it to your advantage.
A simplification of the situation but i think it makes the most sense.
Dont get me wrong i appreciate the idea of him being tainted, but he has also managed to push past a couple years worth of the worst political garbage thrown at him from the media that i have seen and is currently on track to beat everyone's expectations by quite a margin (and thats without them possibly getting more of a bump down the line).
If Labour lose but come out with a small victory of harming the Tory majority, it would be foolish to get rid of him in my eyes. If the Tories win they are sure to absolutely cause a huge mess with Brexit and the best way to capitalise on that for Labour would be to have the same 'boogie man' as before ready to say "See, what the fuck did i tell you?" and be ready to push the agenda again.
At that point May and the Tories look horrible and the once ridiculed opposition is suddenly right and ready to help change things for the better.
If you suddenly swap in some unknown, people arent going to care but if you can change that narrative you could use it to your advantage.
A simplification of the situation but i think it makes the most sense.
Theonik
Member
All insight we've had wrt the referendum puts 65-75% of labour voters on the remain camp. It was the conservatives that failed to rally their voters behind remain that caused Brexit as well as their silly political games around having the referendum in the first place. I don't think Corbyn could have changed much even if he was 'fully behind remain' or whatever the accusations from his party were. Even LD didn't manage to do much better with getting their voters behind remain. The country is rightly divided on this issue.
Now with regards to the 3 options.
1. I don't think a slow eradication of the left would work they tried that since as early as the 60s one could say. One of the strengths of labour is being a wide tent party that appeals to different positions. The manifesto we got this election is part of that, a process of compromise.
2. A split with FPTP would only ensure both parties die, but would probably just kill the splinter dead. You can see that happen many times in politics actually. Even with STV I don't think the labour base can support 2 parties.
3. That seems to be the best option. It plays into Labour's strengths and maximises voter share. Internal divisions and rebellions from the centre only ruin the party's prospects and the sooner these people realise this and accept that Corbyn cannot be removed unless he wishes to the better.
Huw_Dawson
Member
No reason to deflect this on to me, this is a valid criticism of Labour. I recall Labour activists in despair over how little Corbyn and the rest of the top flight were doing.
QuicheFontaine
Member
If you offered Huw 10% right now, or the 'mystery box' of Lib Dem's vote share next Thursday, I wonder what he'd go for?
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
So if Corbyn was barely doing anything, and Farron was crusading around the country rallying the faithful, why was there only a 3 percentage point difference between them?
Brexit is on the Conservatives. No one else.
While true, this doesn't really negate Huw's point.
I honestly don't know if I think he should go or not. On one hand he's performed well during this campaign and is gaining support without (much) compromising on his beliefs.
On the other hand the Tories are running a shambles of a campaign with an unpopular manifesto and are still on track to win decisively. He's also been an ineffective opposition leader prior to this campaign, and that's the role he would almost certainly be back in after the election.
Well, apart from all the people who actually voted Brexit anyway. A sizeable number of whom were Labour supporters.
And the Labour leadership that waved the bill through unamended.
Good job it's basically bollocks concocted by the Tory half of the Remain campaign to throw Labour under the bus, though I don't think even they were expecting Labour to go along with it to try and get rid of Corbyn.
Theonik
Member
Labour couldn't really have blocked it if they wanted to. I do think Corbyn should have put it under free vote and that would have put some pressure on May to compromise more but Labour didn't want to appear as interfering with Brexit considering that's what the electorate voted for.
Basically we're screwed.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Alright, back of envelope calculation. Say both the LDs and Labour got 65% of their vote to back Remain. So 35% of each vote share is:
LD - 2.4m * 0.35 = 0.84m leave voters
Lab - 9.3m * 0.35m = 3.29m leave voters.
If 650k people had voted a different way, Brexit would not have happened. That would require the LDs to have convinced 77% of their remaining leave vote, but Labour only had to convince about 20% of its own leave vote.
Add in the aid to the entire BSIE campaign had Labour not done its own thing for absolutely no reason, add in the profile of the entire Labour front bench telling all those Labour voters that Labour's top brass absolutely thinks you should remain.
The Tories hold the blame for the brunt of Brexit, but I put the blame for the pro-EU side failing at Labour's door. Had Corbyn and his team done more, at the very least the result would have been much tighter.
Labour has reach where other party's don't - in Leave-voting areas of the North and the Midlands that the LDs and Cameron simply could not reach.
It's Reyn Time!
Member
The Tories were the ones who put it to a referendum as part of a sodding popularity contest after their chums in the right wing press had spent decades blaming everything on Europe. That's entirely on them.
Miles Quaritch
Member
Of course, but I think UKIP and Tory backbenchers realised the leadership at the time was weak and they finally had an opportunity to push their agenda.
As for saying if Corbyn hadn't been elected leader we wouldn't have Brexit. The same is true of if Cameron had better control of his backbenchers or if Cameron hadn't run for the hills like a coward when presented by the challenge of UKIP.
They didn't need to block it, but they could have easily put a few safeguards in place to hold the government to account. Instead Corbyn forced it through unamended and only after it passed did he start talking about holding the government to account.
Putting it to a vote is on the Conservatives.
The actual result is on the people who voted for it and the politicians from many parties who knowingly lied to the public.
Spuck-uk
Banned
That's some seriously tortured maths to try and make your team look better.
Theonik
Member
Amendments to the bill were put under vote but failed to pass. The nature of parliamentary majority is that unless conservatives rebel the bill passes as is. And the only thing labour could have done was either threaten to block an unamended bill or give a free vote to their MPs.
e: And blocking would have still required a Tory rebellion but Labour would still be blamed for it. It was a no-win position.
PJV3
Member
It's a bit weird trying to reduce voters to deciples of a religion, Alistair Campbell was on the money when he said people were putting the boot into the EU and Westminster, what the labour leadership thought was irrelevant.
Dorsal Axe
Member
I think their strategy was less about May as it was about exploiting Jeremy Corbyn's unpopularity: "May is not Corbyn" is basically their entire message.
Of course the whole campaign began to unravel once Corbyn...became popular.
In 2010 they endorsed the Lib Dems.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/apr/30/the-liberal-moment-has-come
I am only going of anecdotes when I saw that Corbyn definitely helped leave get some votes.
The "he secretly wants Brexit" was passed around more then a few social circles. Did he do a good job to dispel that? No. The most Corbyn did was say that Brexit would be bad under the Conservatives.
And that silly sausage doesn't realise that's precisely what he let happen by no outright we dressing his voters that it is a bad idea.
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