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[Mr. Sam]

Next you're going to tell me GAF doesn't have many Republicans.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

"Single Market membership is against the will of the British People" is going to be written on May's political tombstone. Like "Who runs the country?" is on Heath's.

 

[Randy Lanzarote]

It's a non-story, and it's a shame BBC have gone with that inflammatory headline... but given he's on a 'Childcare Policy Day' he really should be prepared for some basic questions.

And not the sort of basic questions that NetMums audience will pose to him later.

(ie. Who's your favourite CBeebies bedtime story reader?)

 

[Theonik]

Next you're going to tell me GAF doesn't have many Republicans.

Oh they exist. They are just hiding and shit-posting about it elsewhere. There seems to be a perception that holding certain views will affect one's survival in here.
fwiw It's why voting is secret.

 

[Izuna]

It's not 34 as that was during a lower patch for Labour. I have it off current polls at about 39/40 as the crossover point.

Come on, it's last month. If it's that flexible then by the election it will be +/- the same difference.

 

[Mr. Sam]

And not the sort of basic questions that NetMums audience will pose to him later.

(ie. Who's your favourite CBeebies bedtime story reader?)

I think you're underestimating MumsNet.

 

[frankie_baby]

Oh cool, not seen that figure. I think when Yougov asked on it last public support was at about 30%.

GAF is also very Labour, yes. It was probably quite Lib Dem before 2010.

Ah yeah I've read the yougov poll, thats an older one, i guess the considerable legalisation push across the usa last year may have been rubbing off this side if the pond finally

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Come on, it's last month. If it's that flexible then by the election it will be +/- the same difference.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say? Labour's polling average is nearly 10 points higher than it was on April 20th (25.9%, for the curious, and 34.4% as of last week - I've not updated for about four days). That's obviously bumped up where the age split is. In fact, it might be higher than 40 now - I've not run the numbers in a week or so for the age-voting intention correlation.

 

[*Splinter]

You're all saying this isn't a story, it isn't to you guys because you're Labour supporters already, but this really reinforces the idea that they are a bit clueless when it comes to finances. We saw their polls dip after the Abbott gaffe and this is similarly bad (on the day of a policy launch and it's the leader of the party).

The fact we're this close to the election means this could hurt them.

I think this is sadly true, even if the question itself was nothing more than a cheap gotcha attempt.

 

[Randy Lanzarote]

I think you're underestimating MumsNet.

I'm not sure...

Your last Mumsnet web chat caused quite a stir in the media with your response to the biscuit question. Why are you anti sugar? Surely you should be supporting the British Sugar industry. What did sugar ever do to you that you are against it so much? Everything in moderation, my dear, and perhaps you ought to apply that rule to your policies.

Hi,

Great question! I do consume some sugar, we all do, my whole point was and is that too much sugar is placed in soft drinks, fast food and in particular, in children's dishes. Sugar can be bad and lead to diabetes and other conditions. Hence we need strong regulation of soft drinks and food additives.

I was asked on my first visit about my favourite biscuit, I replied shortbread and since then have been given many gifts of packets of shortbread! And I've yet to discover a low-sugar or no-sugar packet. I suspect it doesn't exist!

As you probably know, I make jam, and that again has to have sugar in it. So let's agree moderation but keep our kids healthy.

Can't help but feel there are many, many more questions posed that deserved a response. :/

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Question for people:

On the one hand, some pollsters are lowering Labour's percentage in the polls, saying that all those young voters and non voters will probably not actually vote for Corbyn.

On the other hand, you have some pollsters taking them at their word.

If you had to make a £1m bet on one or the other side being closer to the truth this election, what would you choose and why?

 

[Meadows]

Not a huge demographic, but interesting nonetheless:


Britain Elects @britainelects

British Jewish general election voting intention:

CON: 77%
LAB: 13%
LDEM: 7%

(via @Survation / last week)

 

[Izuna]

I'm not sure what you're trying to say? Labour's polling average is nearly 10 points higher than it was on April 20th (25.9%, for the curious, and 34.4% as of last week - I've not updated for about four days). That's obviously bumped up where the age split is. In fact, it might be higher than 40 now - I've not run the numbers in a week or so for the age-voting intention correlation.

This is where I admit I'm no data scientist. What causes the movement of the age-split as the poll numbers rise? Does it have to do with the number of voters in that age group?

"Single Market membership is against the will of the British People" is going to be written on May's political tombstone. Like "Who runs the country?" is on Heath's.

"Independance Day
Thursday, 23 June"

~ Boris Johnson

 

[Camp Freddie]

I'm surprised that roughly a third of LD voters voted for leave.

I know that LD constituencies tend to be leave areas due to the South-west locations. But country-wide?
I just find it hard to see what a leave voter would see in an unashamedly pro-EU party.

Corbyn's big test is to see if he can improve young-voter turnout. And if the young-voter Labour bias can outnumber the 'lost' votes in the centre-ground.
I honestly don't know if it'll work or not.

If it does work (now or in 2022), he'll have one hell of a job staying on for more than one term. It's really hard to get young voters to support "the government".
Young voters abandoned Labour (abstaining usually) after they got into power in '97 when "education, education, education" turned into student loans, and non-liberal home office policies under Jack Straw (officially banned from the Leeds Student Union that he was once president of). Blair stayed on because his lost young voters were outnumbered by middle-of-the-road Tories that now accepted he would help the lower-middle classes and not tax them at 90% (while Hague was taking the Tories further right). I don't think Corbyn will have that option. Once UKIP are destroyed, I expect the Tories to try and reclaim the centre ground.

I think Corbyn is helped by May being a right-wing authoritarian. Her all-inclusive one-nation conservative speeches are being seen as the Emperor's new clothes.
That's keeping a lot of centrist Labour-voters voting for Corbyn as the lesser of two evils (if I lived in a Labour marginal I'd vote for them, and even my wife is thinking of voting Labour despite hating Corbyn).
Someone more like "Call me Dave" would've crushed Corbyn by staying in the middle (though May's strategy has been effective at destroying UKIP). By ironic fortune, it seems that the senior Tories have the same problems as Labour when it comes to having a complete dearth of charismatic centrists.

I think Labour need to lose though, since Brexit would utterly destroy them. All the economic and immigration problems would 'show' that Labour can't be trusted with the economy and is 'soft' on border-control. Tories would spin elaborate fantasies how Labour destroyed what could've been a glorious British empire.

I cling to the hope that Brexit will instead destroy the Conservatives' reputation for financial stability, while hopefully stopping short of the complete destruction of our economy.

 

[Izuna]

Actually, is there any data/opinion piece on how likely people are to change their vote once registration stops?

 

[Dougald]

Question for people:

On the one hand, some pollsters are lowering Labour's percentage in the polls, saying that all those young voters and non voters will probably not actually vote for Corbyn.

On the other hand, you have some pollsters taking them at their word.

If you had to make a £1m bet on one or the other side being closer to the truth this election, what would you choose and why?

I'd vote on the young not turning out every time. I suspect turnout will be slightly higher than usual, but to channel Paddy Ashdown, I'll eat my hat if turnout rates are as high as those "certain to vote" young people in the polls say it should be

Considering Labours literal student loan bribe, it'll baffle me.

 

[JoeNut]

I voted Labour.

I actually think they're all lying, manipulative, con artists, but Corbyn is the lesser of 2 evils.

I wouldn't consider any other parties than Tory and Labour due to my opinion than it is a 2 horse race.

 

[Izuna]

I voted Labour.

I actually think they're all lying, manipulative, con artists, but Corbyn is the lesser of 2 evils.

I wouldn't consider any other parties than Tory and Labour due to my opinion than it is a 2 horse race.

I wonder why.

 

[Beefy]

Jeremy Corbyn treated unfairly by press, says David Dimbleby

Speaking before a Question Time special on Thursday when he will interview the Labour leader and Theresa May, Dimbleby pointed out the rightwing bias of most British newspapers and complained of their “lazy pessimism”.

In an interview with the Radio Times, Dimbleby said: “I don’t think anyone could say that Corbyn has had a fair deal at the hands of the press, in a way that the Labour party did when it was more to the centre, but then we generally have a rightwing press.”


https://www.theguardian.com/media/2...-rightwing-bias-british-newspapers?CMP=twt_gu

Pretty damn obvious

 

[Mindwipe]

It's a non-story, and it's a shame BBC have gone with that inflammatory headline... but given he's on a 'Childcare Policy Day' he really should be prepared for some basic questions.

And not the sort of basic questions that NetMums audience will pose to him later.

(ie. Who's your favourite CBeebies bedtime story reader?)

Mumsnet is fierce, but if he's got any common sense he's got a briefed answer for what their very, very noisy TERF feminist wing will ask about on transgender issues, given they derail every political chat on the site nowadays and will dominate the session.

And yes, it is crazy that the site still lets that happen again and again. But go and look at the last five major politician webchats.

 

[*Splinter]

Question for people:

On the one hand, some pollsters are lowering Labour's percentage in the polls, saying that all those young voters and non voters will probably not actually vote for Corbyn.

On the other hand, you have some pollsters taking them at their word.

If you had to make a £1m bet on one or the other side being closer to the truth this election, what would you choose and why?

Quite a leading question, no? It should be obvious that not everyone who says they will vote will actually vote, and the pollsters are in a better position than me to estimate exactly what the difference will be.

How many polls are taking people at their word? That seems... unwise. Surely there is past data to compare to?

Edit: on second thoughts I'm assuming too much. Is there usually a discrepancy between how many people claim they will vote compared to how many actually do?

 

[empyrean]

Some pretty decent questions I think asked to May at her "relaunch" - she dodged the all mind.

 

[Dirtyshubb]

Corbyn takes 2 minutes to confirm some numbers and the BBC try and turn it into a big story

Meanwhile the Tory manifesto still sits uncosted and nobody cares

The most damning thing of all. Why isn't anyone asking them for numbers but are happy doing gotcha cartwheels when Corbyn can't remember a random number off the top of his head?

Fucking this!

Im fed up and tired of the clear bullshit our press are handing out as journalism in this country. We have the press dying for anyone not Tory to not have instant recollection to make them seem incompetent or ridicule them for eating a fucking sandwich a little strange yet our government could shit in their hands and throw it at the press and most would simply say "That throw was strong and stable" and leave it at that.

Any criticism they do get is trivial and avoids any serious topic that people actually give a shit about.

There seriously needs to be something done about how far our papers/news is going recently, just in the last week i have seen some of the most blatant smearing and out right lies about the content of speeches and yet nothing can be done about it.

The Tories have a great reputation for financial competency, so they get away with all kinds of things.

Its so ridiculous that this is the case, it just seems the general population are morons and think "They like to be serious and focus all the time on money. They must be good with it" regardless of the fact they have doubled the national debt in their time in office.

So fucking frustrating following the election, it really is.

 

[Randy Lanzarote]

MumsNet chat:

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/mumsne...ty-Tuesday-30-May-at-midday?messages=100&pg=4

He was only there for 30mins, so all the Q&A are on page 4. Nothing particularly headline grabbing (other than looking forward to meeting Prez Trump)

 

[satriales]

May's Q&A (from TheGuardian)

Q: [From the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg] Don’t elections test leaders? Don’t people expect more from you than attacks on Jeremy Corbyn and the same speech you gave when you became prime minister?

May says she has strong and stable leadership. She is being open about the tough choices ahead. She repeats the line “strong and stable” several times.

How can she keep getting away with repeating the same crap over and over without answering any questions?

 

[Toytown Assassin]

Quite a leading question, no? It should be obvious that not everyone who says they will vote will actually vote, and the pollsters are in a better position than me to estimate exactly what the difference will be.

How many polls are taking people at their word? That seems... unwise. Surely there is past data to compare to?

Edit: on second thoughts I'm assuming too much. Is there usually a discrepancy between how many people claim they will vote compared to how many actually do?

The problem for online polling companies is that as soon as they start doing political polls their panels get flooded with political nerds and activists wanting to game the polls to their sides advantage. That probably doesn't work but what it does do is mean that the panel is far more likely to vote than the general public. The people responding to the polls are most likely going to vote in the numbers they say they are but everyone else?? If they do it'll be the highest turnout since the 50's. If they don't ICM who weight by past vote instead will probably be right resulting in a tory landslide.

 

[Zaph]

May's Q&A (from TheGuardian)

How can she keep getting away with repeating the same crap over and over without answering any questions?

christ

this country deserves May

 

[Spaghetti]

How can she keep getting away with repeating the same crap over and over without answering any questions?

Lack of any particular challenge from the media, refusing to go head-to-head, etc.

She's a propped up Prime Minister.

 

[Dirtyshubb]

May's Q&A (from TheGuardian)

How can she keep getting away with repeating the same crap over and over without answering any questions?

FFS, absolutely disgusting.

Q: "Why do you keep saying the exact same line and avoid answering questions?"
M: *repeats exact same line and avoids questions"
Q: "Thanks, now lets talk about that stinky old terrorist sympathiser."

 

[Theonik]

I wonder why.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spoiler_effect

 

[Uzzy]

MumsNet chat:

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/mumsne...ty-Tuesday-30-May-at-midday?messages=100&pg=4

He was only there for 30mins, so all the Q&A are on page 4. Nothing particularly headline grabbing (other than looking forward to meeting Prez Trump)

He should have promised to nationalise Peppa Pig. That'd win him some votes.

 

[PJV3]

It's a shame George Osborne isn't editing a bigger newspaper, his paper is putting the boot into May again and her abortive personality cult.

 

[Spuck-uk]

Cooper, Burnham or Kendall all would have beaten May. :/

Corbyn has done far better than anyone has expected him to, but his defeat is inevitable.

Reminder that Corbyn destroyed all of these, twice, in elections, because they had absolutely nothing to offer except 'Well, I guess it's austerity forever folks.'

If the centre was a great position to be fighting from, then the Lib Dems wouldn't be sitting on 8%

 

[pswii60]

Hoooooly shit

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40090520

Corbyn should have taken a leaf out of May's book on this one - just repeat some soundbites instead of trying to answer a question that you don't have an answer for.

 

[Spuck-uk]

Not a huge demographic, but interesting nonetheless:


Britain Elects @britainelects

British Jewish general election voting intention:

CON: 77%
LAB: 13%
LDEM: 7%

(via @Survation / last week)

This has been roughly the same voting split for a long time. Jewish people were twice as likely to vote Conservative in 2010 as the non-Jewish equivalent

 

[Deleted member 231381]

This has been roughly the same voting split for a long time. Jewish people were twice as likely to vote Conservative in 2010 as the non-Jewish equivalent

2015 was 67% CON, 18% LAB, so there has been a clear deterioration.

EDIT: mind you, Miliband actually was Jewish so that's probably an unfair starting point. I'd have to dig the archives and see how Brown did.

 

[Spuck-uk]

It's a shame George Osborne isn't editing a bigger newspaper, his paper is putting the boot into May again and her abortive personality cult.

He's not even trying to disguise the boulder sized chip on his shoulder and it's hlarious.

I mean, he's still a useless objectivist, Ayn Rand reading, Thatcher worshiping cretin called Gideon but hey.

 

[StayDead]

Hoooooly shit

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40090520

This is sickening.

People look at notes all the time in meetings, he has hundreds of things to remember and he wanted to give an accurate answer. Let him check the notes for crying out loud.

This is blown way out of proportion, meanwhile the Tories who HAVE NO ANSWERS AT ALL get off scott free.

It's stupid.

 

[Spuck-uk]

2015 was 67% CON, 18% LAB, so there has been a clear deterioration.

EDIT: mind you, Miliband actually was Jewish so that's probably an unfair starting point. I'd have to dig the archives and see how Brown did.

A Jewish leader who the tory tabloids were making subtle anti-semetic jibes about, at that. Ken Livingstone really didn't help things though.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

He's not even trying to disguise the boulder sized chip on his shoulder and it's hlarious.

I mean, he's still a useless objectivist, Ayn Rand reading, Thatcher worshiping cretin called Gideon but hey.

He's not called Gideon, though, he's called George. Nobody went through the tedious charade of calling Gordon Brown "James" all the time. I'm pretty happy to criticise his positions, but criticising him for a name he didn't get to pick and has chosen not to use since he was 13 seems pretty unfair.

 

[Mr Git]

May's Q&A (from TheGuardian)

How can she keep getting away with repeating the same crap over and over without answering any questions?

It's like she's just SEO disguising herself as a human

 

[Dirtyshubb]

It's like she's just SEO disguising herself as a human

LOL, so May is basically PC Principle?

 

[Spuck-uk]

He's not called Gideon, though, he's called George. Nobody went through the tedious charade of calling Gordon Brown "James" all the time. I'm pretty happy to criticise his positions, but criticising him for a name he didn't get to pick and has chosen not to use since he was 13 seems pretty unfair.

I didn't say I was trying to be fair*, I just wanted a rant. I do loathe him, and his getting booed at the London Olympics is a treasured memory




*I mean it's not really fair to criticise what books someone reads either, or which Lich-Queen you tug yourself off to at nights.

 

[Ravensmash]

Question for people:

On the one hand, some pollsters are lowering Labour's percentage in the polls, saying that all those young voters and non voters will probably not actually vote for Corbyn.

On the other hand, you have some pollsters taking them at their word.

If you had to make a £1m bet on one or the other side being closer to the truth this election, what would you choose and why?

Young voters will probably get distracted by a cool film being on, or scared off by the rain.

 

[KarneeKarnay]

What are the repercussions in Labor win?

I don't think Brexit can be stopped, so pushing aside Brexit for a moment. What are the biggest repercussions to a Labor win?

 

[anonymous_abc]

I wonder why.

Blame the electoral system not the voter.

What are the repercussions in Labor win?

I don't think Brexit can be stopped, so pushing aside Brexit for a moment. What are the biggest repercussions to a Labor win?

Pigs will be able to overcome gravity.

 

[Spuck-uk]

What are the repercussions in Labor win?

I don't think Brexit can be stopped, so pushing aside Brexit for a moment. What are the biggest repercussions to a Labor win?

Me being celebration drunk for a week will be a fairly major repercussion on my liver.

 

[Chocolate & Vanilla]

Hoooooly shit

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40090520

Sky news talked about this earlier but the had figures from Labour. £5.3B or something like that. No trying to pin a "lol Jeremy" moment to it.

How is it that Sky news are a better source than BBC?

 

[Theonik]

What are the repercussions in Labor win?

I don't think Brexit can be stopped, so pushing aside Brexit for a moment. What are the biggest repercussions to a Labor win?

The hat industry will get a short term boon as hat consumption hits a record high.

 

[Sheentak]

Sky news talked about this earlier but the had figures from Labour. £5.3B or something like that. No trying to pin a "lol Jeremy" moment to it.

How is it that Sky news are a better source than BBC?

BBC has changed alot since Tories took over