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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding

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All 3 of the seat models released at the moment (YouGov, ElectionForecast, and Ashcroft) have Clegg losing Hallam.

ElectonForecast has a LD gain in Bristol West as 72% likely - I do not trust their figures on LD seats at all. http://electionforecast.co.uk/tables/LD_seat_gains.html

Ashcroft is as bad from what I can recall. But hey, we'll see regarding his model.

But no, without some odd shenanigans on polling day I don't see Sheffield Hallam as anything other than a hold. No good reason for the local party to vote out Clegg and Corbyn is far more likely to repulse there than attract.
 

Meadows

Banned
How far back are you looking when you say that


Because your own figure shows that Debt to GDP wasn't any worse under the previous Labour government until the global financial crisis. It was lower than what they inherited if anything and they weren't exactly pursuing a major austerity campaign.

Yeah, I mean I liked New Labour and think their economic policies were generally quite good until '07 so don't take this as being a partisan argument.

I'm looking at the current crop of economic policies in these manifestos and I do think that the Conservatives would be better stewards than the other parties of our debt levels compared to the crazy borrowing necessary for Labour/SNP.

Even with this I won't vote for them though as I disagree with a tonne of their policies.

Here's a breakdown of the manifesto pledges:

DBGKadvXYAAUMEP.jpg
 

TimmmV

Member
First of all, I'd absolutely love it if you broke your posts up into line broken paragraphs a bit more because although what you say is very articulate it's kind of an eye fuck to read.

Apart from that, I think this is a very one sided view of the deficit, and I think that fiscal responsibility is an extremely important thing for our generation to do so that we don't inherit the same kind of insanity that we were given. I want our kids to be able to have policies we couldn't afford and being responsible is an important part of that.

Labour and the SNP will need to borrow a lot to fund their manifestos and I'm really not convinced that will be in our long term interest.

It would be responsible for the government to borrow some money (relatively cheaply) and stimulate some growth through investment though. Using "our kids" is disingenuous too - you are only thinking about the national debt that gets passed on on, but none of the benefits that might have been enabled by borrowing - schools, hospitals, better transport links etc etc. None of this stuff just disappears*

"Fiscal responsibility" seems to be this buzzword that is synonymous with "we should have no debt", when that isn't the case in reality at all

*unless sold off for a value below market rate by the Tories
 

Meadows

Banned
It would be responsible for the government to borrow some money (relatively cheaply) and stimulate some growth through investment though. Using "our kids" is disingenuous too - you are only thinking about the national debt that gets passed on on, but none of the benefits that might have been enabled by borrowing - schools, hospitals, better transport links etc etc. None of this stuff just disappears*

"Fiscal responsibility" seems to be this buzzword that is synonymous with "we should have no debt", when that isn't the case in reality at all

*unless sold off for a value below market rate by the Tories

I agree that borrowing is an essential part of economic growth, I just think that our current levels are dangerous and we need to get it down so that it doesn't hamstring future generations a la Japan.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
We're still at the ZLB. I don't know why anyone would be concerned about the debt right now. That's just bad economics.
 
ElectonForecast has a LD gain in Bristol West as 72% likely - I do not trust their figures on LD seats at all. http://electionforecast.co.uk/tables/LD_seat_gains.html

Ashcroft is as bad from what I can recall. But hey, we'll see regarding his model.

But no, without some odd shenanigans on polling day I don't see Sheffield Hallam as anything other than a hold. No good reason for the local party to vote out Clegg and Corbyn is far more likely to repulse there than attract.

I seem to recall there was one the other day that I played round with, which implied that the Greens would lose Brighton through a simple drop in vote share.

I don't think that's happening regardless of their national polling.
 

Audioboxer

Member
It would be responsible for the government to borrow some money (relatively cheaply) and stimulate some growth through investment though. Using "our kids" is disingenuous too - you are only thinking about the national debt that gets passed on on, but none of the benefits that might have been enabled by borrowing - schools, hospitals, better transport links etc etc. None of this stuff just disappears*

"Fiscal responsibility" seems to be this buzzword that is synonymous with "we should have no debt", when that isn't the case in reality at all

*unless sold off for a value below market rate by the Tories

It seems to be the catch-all statement these days "I'm socially progressive, fiscally conservative". Seemingly a line sold to masses that has them completely unsure of what they're actually uttering, but it sounds good.

"Fiscally conservative" is the catch-all that makes many believe they're thinking like an adult as your parents always told you to shop around and "be wise with your money". Unfortunately, that is actually a very child-like way to approach the incredibly complex and multi-faceted realm of country debt/borrowing/spending. Quite honestly, unless any of us are statisticians and economists ourselves, we really know jack shit as well.

But, you can still have progressive ways of thinking implanted in your brain that try to nudge a country in the right direction whilst admitting humbly that those with the real financial intelligence and brain power should sort it all out should have the actual control. The issue there is, I think the Tories have largely proven they are fucking useless at managing, growing and stimulating the UK. We've been on a track to despair for quite a while, and it's being used as a way to fucking savage the poorest/most vulnerable. It's working too, masses of the general public have sheer utter contempt for any single person they perceive as lower than them in society. I mean, the contempt levels are bubbling with that much anger and hatred you even have poor people who fucking hate those a little bit poorer than them. Constant punching down, or more like fucking battering down.

The longer this continues the more you'll see the general public of this great United Kingdom further turn into some of the worst global displays of self-pity, hate, resentment, anger, and in-fighting. For the most part, I think certain governments love this. It keeps the focus off them and has the people continuing to vote against their own interests as they just keep uttering "fiscal conservatism" and "the benefits system doesn't work! NHS is failing! immigrants!". Obfuscation of the real issues with propaganda and fear. We're already pretty bad as a nation, Brexit summed up much of what I've just said publicly, with vitriol, smearing, desperation to blame someone and so many people blindly voting against their own interests.
 

Meadows

Banned
But, you can still have progressive ways of thinking implanted in your brain that try to nudge a country in the right direction whilst admitting humbly that those with the real financial intelligence and brain power should sort it all out should have the actual control. The issue there is, I think the Tories have largely proven they are fucking useless at managing, growing and stimulating the UK. We've been on a track to despair for quite a while, and it's being used as a way to fucking savage the poorest/most vulnerable. It's working too, masses of the general public have sheer utter contempt for any single person they perceive as lower than them in society.

I mean it was the fastest growing economy in the G7 for the last two years and unemployment is at historically low rates. I don't think that's something you can just say without explaining your thoughts further.
 

Chinner

Banned
Equally, could push narrative that May does not like to face the public and make her look weak. How can she face the EU when she won't face the public?

Who knows what way it could go.
 
I agree that borrowing is an essential part of economic growth, I just think that our current levels are dangerous and we need to get it down so that it doesn't hamstring future generations a la Japan.
Implying that the debt to GDP ratio is wot shafted Japan (which is sitting at 250%) reminds me of folk fearing that country with sovereign currency X might become the next Greece if they dont cut cut cut.
 

hohoXD123

Member
Yeah, I mean I liked New Labour and think their economic policies were generally quite good until '07 so don't take this as being a partisan argument.

I'm looking at the current crop of economic policies in these manifestos and I do think that the Conservatives would be better stewards than the other parties of our debt levels compared to the crazy borrowing necessary for Labour/SNP.

Even with this I won't vote for them though as I disagree with a tonne of their policies.

Here's a breakdown of the manifesto pledges:

DBGKadvXYAAUMEP.jpg

But again, New Labour didn't pursue an austerity campaign. Health and education spending soared under them:

So why is it fiscally irresponsible to borrow more to invest in public services?
 
So he's doing it! Well. I guess they tried calling May's bluff long enough, and with our effectively shortened campaign, just have to go for it. At least there is a Tory there so it's not like the 'Challengers Debate' last time.

But I guess with the last few days... Women's Hour was obviously a car crash, but after Paxman and the One Show went well... you know, I think this might be the right move. Keep him visible, keep attacking May.


Oh no I may have to watch it now
 

*Splinter

Member
My favourite part of UK PoliGAF is seeing Crab and Huw give completely opposing answers to every Lib Dem related question.

Is Clegg winning his seat again a sure thing?

Nothing is sure in politics, but after a brief "BUT WHAT IF THOUGH" frenzy a few days back on the betting markets, there was some actual analysis done. If nothing else - same as Greg Mulholland in Leeds NW, he'd be saved by the Labour-voting student bloc going home denying his main opponent some critically needed votes.

All 3 of the seat models released at the moment (YouGov, ElectionForecast, and Ashcroft) have Clegg losing Hallam.
 

Mindwipe

Member
I still haven't had any engagement from political parties at all this election. I live in a safe Labour seat and it's clear that means they regard my vote as meaningless.

Not had a single canvasser, for any party. Not had any significant political advertising (a tiny bit on Twitter maybe). UKIP are the only party who have even put a leaflet through my door (and it was illiterate nonsense).
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
My favourite part of UK PoliGAF is seeing Crab and Huw give completely opposing answers to every Lib Dem related question.

I do admire Huw's commitment to living in the Libdemverse. When we activate the space-time portals for transdimensional travel, we'll have to do a ParallelGAF meet up.
 

Audioboxer

Member
I mean it was the fastest growing economy in the G7 for the last two years and unemployment is at historically low rates. I don't think that's something you can just say without explaining your thoughts further.

I mean, vote as is then and see how things go for the NHS, education, mental health, disabilities, public services and so on? How the Government manage and handle these fine achievements you've just listed is what matters. I already said earlier if anyone wants to put forward employment levels, then that should correlate to tax revenue, which in turn is what is supposed to be reinvested into the public sector?

Better go ask the Tories where they are like marmite with spending in the public sector.
 
My favourite part of UK PoliGAF is seeing Crab and Huw give completely opposing answers to every Lib Dem related question.

He's Labour and a pessimist on LD prospects, I'm LD and mostly an optimist. The latter is hard on here given that this is, as discussed yesterday, a largely Labour board.

And yeah, I thought it would ultimately be Corbyn. Very pleased.
 

*Splinter

Member
https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/869871774330228738





Absolute madman. I think it's a bloody stupid idea, but he's earnt the right to take that risk.
Haha, I knew it. Everything to gain.

I still haven't had any engagement from political parties at all this election. I live in a safe Labour seat and it's clear that means they regard my vote as meaningless.

Not had a single canvasser, for any party. Not had any significant political advertising (a tiny bit on Twitter maybe). UKIP are the only party who have even put a leaflet through my door (and it was illiterate nonsense).
Tory safe seat here. If you don't watch the news you wouldn't know a GE had even been called.

He's Labour and a pessimist on LD prospects, I'm LD and mostly an optimist. The latter is hard on here given that this is, as discussed yesterday, a largely Labour board.
I know. The truth is, as always, somewhere in the middle. It just amuses me.
 

TimmmV

Member
I agree that borrowing is an essential part of economic growth, I just think that our current levels are dangerous and we need to get it down so that it doesn't hamstring future generations a la Japan.

I might be remembering wrong - but aren't Japan's problems precisely down to not enough consumer spending, and a declining and ageing population? I don't think thats really the same thing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fbUqcc2bGs

This is what Austerity has given us. My missus works with this lady, it's hard to describe just how angry this shit makes me.

This video, bloody hell...

Absolutely disgusting. There is no good reason for this to be taking place in a country as wealthy as the UK.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
He's Labour and a pessimist on LD prospects, I'm LD and mostly an optimist. The latter is hard on here given that this is, as discussed yesterday, a largely Labour board.

I'm a realist. I'm actually forecasting they take 9-13 seats, which is more than both ElectoralForecast and Ashcroft! Pessimism is a few steps down from here.
 

Spuck-uk

Banned
Good for him. Nothing to lose. Turn up in a 'Where's May?" t-shirt and cut a promo direct into the camera.

Nothing to gain arguably.

o-CORBYN-TWEETS-570.jpg


Fuck it, he's got some bollocks on him though, as you know all anyone else* will do will be attacking him.

*Maybe not the Greens
 
I'm a realist. I'm actually forecasting they take 9-13 seats, which is more than both ElectoralForecast and Ashcroft! Pessimism is a few steps down from here.

Oh! Fair enough. :)

My prediction is still about 12+. Given how wonky the polls are I'm not counting anything out.
 

AngryMoth

Member
Forgive my ignorance, I'm travelling so not keeping up with coverage as much as normal, but if Corbyn does the debate that's all the major party leaders except May, right?

Sounds like the right move to me, that's a real bad look for her.
 

Spuck-uk

Banned
I mean it was the fastest growing economy in the G7 for the last two years and unemployment is at historically low rates. I don't think that's something you can just say without explaining your thoughts further.

It was 'growing' back towards the mean it had fallen behind, and unemployment levels don't include people who've been kicked off benefits, or working 0 hours contracts with no guaranteed work.

Food bank usage has TRIPLED. That's not a sign you're doing things right.
 

Syder

Member
Forgive my ignorance, I'm travelling so not keeping up with coverage as much as normal, but if Corbyn does the debate that's all the major party leaders except May, right?

Sounds like the right move to me, that's a real bad look for her.
I agree. It might not be good for Corbyn but it's certainly not good for May.
 

*Splinter

Member
Forgive my ignorance, I'm travelling so not keeping up with coverage as much as normal, but if Corbyn does the debate that's all the major party leaders except May, right?

Sounds like the right move to me, that's a real bad look for her.
I'm only surprised he announced so late. Maybe to minimise the chances of May turning up?

Either that or just a tough call to make, but it seemed more inevitable the longer they delayed.
 

PJV3

Member
Forgive my ignorance, I'm travelling so not keeping up with coverage as much as normal, but if Corbyn does the debate that's all the major party leaders except May, right?

Sounds like the right move to me, that's a real bad look for her.

It will hopefully whittle a little more away from the brave leader image May is trying to coast on.
 

Audioboxer

Member
Forgive my ignorance, I'm travelling so not keeping up with coverage as much as normal, but if Corbyn does the debate that's all the major party leaders except May, right?

Sounds like the right move to me, that's a real bad look for her.

They should all be doing it anyway. People just largely hate debate as it's what leads to cracks in their armour/their views getting tested. May is fucking horrendous at dealing with pressure and criticism.

Televised debates aren't always great, just look at how ridiculous they can be in America. Done poorly they just turn into a "reality TV show" with zingers. However, it's one way the general public has a tiny chance to see leaders tested and put under pressure instead of just yapping from podiums in rooms/events full of undying loyalty and support.

I can say I have respect for Corbyn now doing it, but in all honesty, he should have been anyway. At least when it's the BBC. It's not the Graham Norton show or some other celeb talk host. Although, I'd probably find it quite enjoyable if all the leaders were on the Graham Norton show for a good argument.

Still, +1 to Corbyn PR ending up going, looks really bad now for May.
 

Spuck-uk

Banned
He's Labour and a pessimist on LD prospects, I'm LD and mostly an optimist. The latter is hard on here given that this is, as discussed yesterday, a largely Labour board.

And yeah, I thought it would ultimately be Corbyn. Very pleased.

Fits in with the board demographic, most people <30 are labour voters by a huge margin.

I'm old and skewing things.
 

Uzzy

Member
He's turning into Lord Flash-Heart.

I was thinking a different kind of

Flash a-ah
Savior of the Universe
Flash a-ah
He'll save every one of us

He's for every one of us
Stand for every one of us
He save with a mighty hand
Every man, every woman
Every child, with a mighty
Flash
 

hohoXD123

Member
Haha, Corbyn does have some massive balls. This will look terrible for May, she should have just not sent anyone and turned it into a challengers debate.
 

Moosichu

Member
Yeah, I mean I liked New Labour and think their economic policies were generally quite good until '07 so don't take this as being a partisan argument.

I'm looking at the current crop of economic policies in these manifestos and I do think that the Conservatives would be better stewards than the other parties of our debt levels compared to the crazy borrowing necessary for Labour/SNP.

Even with this I won't vote for them though as I disagree with a tonne of their policies.

Here's a breakdown of the manifesto pledges:

DBGKadvXYAAUMEP.jpg

That's assuming that borrowing is a bad thing - if it leads to an increase in growth, then borrowing is worth it. (Not saying Labour is doing this, just that looking how the deficit will be affected does not give the full picture).
 

Maledict

Member
Have to say, one thing I never give credit to Corbyn for is how absolutely relaxed he always looks and sounds when speaking to crowds. It makes sense given how long he's been doing this, but it comes across so much better than May and Farron.
 
Fits in with the board demographic, most people <30 are labour voters by a huge margin.

I'm old and skewing things.

True dat.

Only reason I go on about LD stuff is because it's the only bit of the election I actually care about as an LD - the long march back to relevance. It's a depressing life, as we by any right would be on 12% and hoping on +20 tonight if we'd got the campaign off to a positive start. Instead I'm having to hedge my bets.

It's a lot of fun watching Corbynmania from the sidelines, though, and May has utterly sunk her own campaign.
 
Well done on Corbyn for going ahead with this debate, he gets a +1 from me (not a the ballot box mind...).

All eyes on May now. If she doesn't turn up she will get accused of cowardice, if she does turn up she will get hammered from all sides.
 
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