SNP: 43% (-9)
CON: 25% (+10)
LAB: 25% (+1)
LDEM: 5% (-2)
Is Ipsos' latest figures, but the surface there's big turmoil. Surprising amount of SNP -> Con movement, which I find baffling. Labour is picking up SNP voters at roughly the same rate it's losing Conservative voters. Lib Dems are losing voters to Labour.
Even although I framed it as Labour, I guess you can say the same for 2014~2015 for some Tories as well. Once NO was voted for, it swung back to voting on morals/policy and Sturgeon was saying a lot of right things in 2015.
Now that it has completely been framed as Scottish Independence vote 2.0, it's going to result in people ultimately deciding they'd rather prioritise voting for a party that might be against their interests if it is
perceived to combat indyref2.
This isn't the time to vote for that, but people will be people and fear and propaganda prevail. The time to vote against indyref2 is in the actual vote for it. It passed through in the Scottish parliament so no amount of nonsense about it being outright blocked is true. Not in the way the Tories have carefully used words like "block". Labour too, but that is as I said, Dugdale, trying to keep up with Davidson to cling onto the Unionist vote.
There might be some voting for the SNP who voted LEAVE as well (so now swinging to Tory), although I do not think there will be much crossover there. I'd be willing to stake my life on the majority of leave voters in Scotland being split between the Conservatives and Labour.