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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding

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PJV3

Member
May's right. She's actually in a parallel universe.

This is the latest report of May's position in the cosmos.

It has been claimed that at a meeting between Juncker and the prime minister on Wednesday in Downing Street, May asked for a full outline of a future trade deal before agreement on an estimated €60bn withdrawal bill was arrived at. One EU diplomat was quoted by the Sunday Times as claiming: “This was a rather incredible demand. It seemed as if it came from a parallel reality.”

On Sunday, May was tackled about reported comments from Juncker that she was living in another galaxy when it came to her demands for trade talks before the exit bill was settled.
 
Perhaps if you had read my post more thoroughly, you'd have realised the poll recorded not what people wanted, but what they thought would happen. This kind of makes everything you said moot, as you're responding on a false pretence. I am not arguing that the country does/doesn't want hard Brexit. I am merely pointing out the massive amount of revisionism that has occurred since the referendum.

The vast majority of Leave voters believe their vote would not cost the UK full access to the single market. They were wrong. The majority of Leave voters believed that other countries would follow us out the door but that is looking highly unlikely given the Netherlands result, and the French first round, and cross-EU polling. Almost half of Leave voters believed we would be offered significant concessions to stay. They were wrong.

In short, most Leave voters did not know what they were voting for. Most Leave voters believed the UK could have its cake and eat it too. These are entirely reasonable conclusions from the poll. I think now that a far greater proportion of Leave voters understand the consequence of their vote. There is a great deal of revisionism going on to hide just how heavily mislead they were. Worse, there is an enormous amount of confirmatory bias taking hold to ensure that they are content regardless of how different the consequences are to what they expected.

"They were wrong" and "they were mislead" aren't the same thing. Every household in the country got a leaflet from the government trying to convince them to vote remain, and that leaflet was talking up the economic advantages of staying in the EU by contrasting​ it with us losing full membership of the single market. And I think what I was talking about is entirely relevant, because whilst a lot of leave voters may have been wrong about what was possible and what wasn't, they clearly aren't willing to actually change their mind on the basis of full access to the single market so, in short, who cares? Their votes clearly weren't turning on whether we had membership of the single market, so what difference does their misunderstanding have?
 
Can somebody explain why Gina Miller is so hated?

She seems like a reasonable person that just tries, with legal means that are available to everybody, to block the brexit. As far as I know there is a minority that still wants an exit from brexit why does Gina Miller, who is not even a politician, gets so hated?
This is the latest report of May's position in the cosmos.

It has been claimed that at a meeting between Juncker and the prime minister on Wednesday in Downing Street, May asked for a full outline of a future trade deal before agreement on an estimated €60bn withdrawal bill was arrived at. One EU diplomat was quoted by the Sunday Times as claiming: ”This was a rather incredible demand. It seemed as if it came from a parallel reality."

On Sunday, May was tackled about reported comments from Juncker that she was living in another galaxy when it came to her demands for trade talks before the exit bill was settled.

I honestly think the EU will just stop the negotiations and the brexit will be without a clear plan. Tariffs (WTO Standard) will be immediately set into effect
The most recent Electoral Calculus page is pretty interesting.

https://www.theguardian.com/science...nt-count-on-remain-votes-the-data-looks-bleak
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

In short: Labour is losing a small trickle in every direction, but actually, have remained surprisingly stable since 2015 (probably because they were already at their core vote). Their biggest problem is the small 'Hard Remain' group moving to the Liberal Democrats (although the most recent polling suggests that may not be the case...). Their problem is not that their votes are moving to the Conservatives, but that they're staying still and the Conservatives are absorbing UKIP.

The Liberal Democrats have had a small recovery, but it is taken almost entirely from Labour, which means they're very unlikely to win back many seats. Of the top 25 Lib Dem target seats, only 3 are Labour-held. The more evidence we get, the more I think the Lib Dems are going to underperform compared to people's expectations. 20 seats would be an exceptionally good night for them, in all honesty. The current projection actually shows them losing seats, although I think that will be counterbalanced by the incumbency effect.

The Conservatives aren't really taking anything away from Labour or the Lib Dems - a small trickle, nothing significant. What has happened is that UKIP is just collapsing and the Conservatives are feasting on their remains. The seats Labour needs to be most worried about are ones where UKIP did well and the Conservatives were close behind.

2017 is looking like it will basically be 2015 except half of UKIP voters go Conservative.
is the hard remain group really that small?
 

daviyoung

Banned
Can somebody explain why Gina Miller is so hated?

She seems like a reasonable person that just tries, with legal means that are available to everybody, to block the brexit. As far as I know there is a minority that still wants an exit from brexit why does Gina Miller, who is not even a politician, gets so hated?

Most people don't give a fuck, but there are more that just want to get on with the Brexit now. When she initially rose up the media, the governments mouthpiece, completely ruined her. Now that Article 50 has been triggered there is more ammunition to make her look like a pointless thorn in the country's side.
 
Most people don't give a fuck, but there are more that just want to get on with the Brexit now. When she initially rose up the media, the governments mouthpiece, completely ruined her. Now that Article 50 has been triggered there is more ammunition to make her look like a pointless thorn in the country's side.

As far as I understand UK may stay in EU if they rescind the notification?
 

daviyoung

Banned
As far as I understand UK may stay in EU if they rescind the notification?

No one knows as it's the first time all of this has been done, everything is up for discussion. However, that hasn't stopped the narrative that UK has handed in its notice and now must persevere down this path. It would also be a political minefield for this government to completely renege on all its verbiage the past 8 months.
 

PJV3

Member
I honestly think the EU will just stop the negotiations and the brexit will be without a clear plan. Tariffs (WTO Standard) will be immediately set into effect

I'm going to be a little generous and realise that everyone in government has spent their entire political life as a member of the EU, and is used to how that works and being awkward to get something out of it.

The penny will drop eventually that we are a third party in these negotiations and all the old rules go out the window, or yes it's going to get very ugly.
 
I'm going to be a little generous and realise that everyone in government has spent their entire political life as a member of the EU, and is used to how that works and being awkward to get something out of it.

The penny will drop eventually that we are a third party in these negotiations and all the old rules go out the window, or yes it's going to get very ugly.

well i dont know if it will be ugly. my impression currently is that it will take 10 years for UK to realize that brexit may have hurt their wealth and being an EU member did not mean necessarily that you were prevented to sell your goods (what goods?) to other countries (because the narrative now seems to be that the single market is not that important as there are vast markets in other countries)

No one knows as it's the first time all of this has been done, everything is up for discussion. However, that hasn't stopped the narrative that UK has handed in its notice and now must persevere down this path. It would also be a political minefield for this government to completely renege on the past 8 months.
brexit is a decision that will be relevant for the next 20-30 years. aside of the economical aspect and general freedom of movement (which effects tourism too btw) the union may just crumble (scottland may declare independence and the conflict in northern ireland may start again). so the political hardships now dont seem to be that important in light of what may happen in the future.
 

sammex

Member
YouGov asking some interesting questions in their latest poll:

C-mr_L5XUAAYsHE.jpg

C-mr_LyXoAE5v_5.jpg

I know it's run and owned by conservatives but these are extreme.
 

daviyoung

Banned
brexit is a decision that will be relevant for the next 20-30 years. aside of the economical aspect and general freedom of movement (which effects tourism too btw) the union may just crumble (scottland may declare independence and the conflict in northern ireland may start again). so the political hardships now dont seem to be that important in light of what may happen in the future.

It's a Tory risk. If they can convince the public they did their best with Brexit, that no other party could have got this far, and that despite all the odds they get a deal they've secured their reign for that 20 to 30 years.
 
"Can I go full Putin?" on those questions. Jesus christ.

As far as I understand UK may stay in EU if they rescind the notification?

Basically the only way I can imagine that happening is if a second referendum happened, and Remain won. Maybe if the lib dems got in to power.

Neither situation strikes me as one that is likely to happen.
 
It's a Tory risk. If they can convince the public they did their best with Brexit, that no other party could have got this far, and that despite all the odds they get a deal they've secured their reign for that 20 to 30 years.

how are they going to convince the public once the banking sector is a fraction of what it was before, manufacturing is decimated, pound is decimated and scotland and northern ireland are asking for independence?
 

liquidtmd

Banned
how are they going to convince the public once the banking sector is a fraction of what it was before, manufacturing is decimated, pound is decimated and scotland and northern ireland are asking for independence?

"MAKING AMERI....BRITAIN GREAT AGAIN"

Beyond empty rhetoric, I got nothing but it's OK, neither do they
 

nekkid

It doesn't matter who we are, what matters is our plan.
Can somebody explain why Gina Miller is so hated?

She seems like a reasonable person that just tries, with legal means that are available to everybody, to block the brexit. As far as I know there is a minority that still wants an exit from brexit why does Gina Miller, who is not even a politician, gets so hated?

To be fair, if remain had won and there was a single person who, while trying to maintain a high profile, was trying to fight against it using every legal technicality they could muster, I'm sure you'd find that fucking irritating.
 
To be fair, if remain had won and there was a single person who, while trying to maintain a high profile, was trying to fight against it using every legal technicality they could muster, I'm sure you'd find that fucking irritating.
if its just using the ordinary means of a citizen (which includes going to court).. why?

according to your logic people should just give up on their rights to be heard in front of courts.

"MAKING AMERI....BRITAIN GREAT AGAIN"
Wait and see, it's going to be magic.



no seriously. if people start to loose jobs in the richer regions of the country (in particular london) and the poorer regions are getting even less help because government has no money.. how will daily mail spin this? invade germany ?
 

liquidtmd

Banned
no seriously. if people start to loose jobs in the richer regions of the country (in particular london) and the poorer regions are getting even less help because government has no money.. how will daily mail spin this? invade germany ?

1. Blame the EU somehow for not 'playing fair'

2. Focus and pray any other country gets a right wing leader to push their own Brexit

3. Remove pants

4. ?????

5. Look readers, here's some boobs and funny cat videos
 
No, seriously, no one fucking knows.

so the british media, torys and people supporting them are basically just going in blindly without having a plan whatsoever?
1. Blame the EU somehow for not 'playing fair'

2. Focus and pray any other country gets a right wing leader to push their own Brexit

3. Remove pants

4. ?????

5. Look readers, here's some boobs and funny cat videos

1. UK is out of EU at that point
2. UK is out of EU at that point. whatever happens in another country is even less of the concern of the UK.
3. that seems like a plan
4.???
5. sex and animals always work
 
Are you new to the Brexit? That's exactly it.

no i am just baffled at the collective shortsightedness. the election may be the last chance for UK to stop this madness but no party is really championing an exit of the brexit (aside of liberal democrats) and people are supporting the tories even more than before.
Yup, it's been like that from the very beginning.

The tories don't have a clue what they're doing, but the media doesn't care.

you know the whole thing started because a dumb-dumb tried to risk everything and got punished for it. but are you really going to accept that the stupidity of cameron will effect the whole country for the next decades?
 

jelly

Member
Blame the EU, the poor, the remaining non UK people. There is always someone to blame, the EU is going to get it even more for not giving the UK everything for nothing.

I imagine the Tory party will turn on May eventually and put someone even worse in power.
 

Rodelero

Member
"They were wrong" and "they were mislead" aren't the same thing. Every household in the country got a leaflet from the government trying to convince them to vote remain, and that leaflet was talking up the economic advantages of staying in the EU by contrasting​ it with us losing full membership of the single market.

So, your argument is that, on one of the most important issues in this referendum, the vast majority of Leave voters were not misled but simply wrong? I'm not sure that reflects well on Leave voters, to be honest. I'm also not sure it's accurate - there were definite mixed signals being sent over the single market issue from prominent Leave campaigners. Either way, either they were misled on a massive scale or the vast majority of them are actually ignorant enough to believe something that nobody was suggesting. Both are damning indictments of the referendum, and our democracy.

And I think what I was talking about is entirely relevant, because whilst a lot of leave voters may have been wrong about what was possible and what wasn't, they clearly aren't willing to actually change their mind on the basis of full access to the single market so, in short, who cares? Their votes clearly weren't turning on whether we had membership of the single market, so what difference does their misunderstanding have?

Well it matters because it's important to know the truth. Quite clearly, for the most part, there is no regret over the Brexit vote. Quite clearly, if asked now, there is a lot of support for hard Brexit, though, I'm not sure Hard Brexit would beat Remain if we were to have another vote. It's still worth pointing out that Hard Brexit was not nearly as popular when the referendum was actually held. It hugely damages the vapid notion of 'Will of the People'. It hugely damages the notion that Leave voters knew what they were voting for, too.

If it you truly don't think that is relevant... fine. I think it's highly relevant and highly depressing.
 

PJV3

Member
Yup, it's been like that from the very beginning.

The tories don't have a clue what they're doing, but the media doesn't care.


It's fucking crazy a prime minister can say that his government has done no work or prepared at all for an option that in his view is bad for the country, and the people vote for it.

It's crazy he was even allowed to ask the question without actually preparing anything. Now our latest PM seems even more detached and is asking the country to crush all opposition, hopefully we say no this time.
 
So, your argument is that, on one of the most important issues in this referendum, the vast majority of Leave voters were not misled but simply wrong? I'm not sure that reflects well on Leave voters, to be honest. I'm also not sure it's accurate - there were definite mixed signals being sent over the single market issue from prominent Leave campaigners. Either way, either they were misled on a massive scale or the vast majority of them are actually ignorant enough to believe something that nobody was suggesting. Both are damning indictments of the referendum, and our democracy.



Well it matters because it's important to know the truth. Quite clearly, for the most part, there is no regret over the Brexit vote. Quite clearly, if asked now, there is a lot of support for hard Brexit, though, I'm not sure Hard Brexit would beat Remain if we were to have another vote. It's still worth pointing out that Hard Brexit was not nearly as popular when the referendum was actually held. It hugely damages the vapid notion of 'Will of the People'. It hugely damages the notion that Leave voters knew what they were voting for, too.

If it you truly don't think that is relevant... fine. I think it's highly relevant and highly depressing.
thats where i dont understand labor or libdems. they should frame the new election as a nother vote and should make clear that they will rescind the Article 50 notice if they win. that seems to be a much better strategy then what is happening right now.
 

Chinner

Banned
no seriously. if people start to loose jobs in the richer regions of the country (in particular london) and the poorer regions are getting even less help because government has no money.. how will daily mail spin this? invade germany ?

Do not underestimate the influence the media and the lack of critical thinking of the general public. The media and the government will no doubt default to causing moral panics towards their old favorites: the poor, disabled and minorities
 

Rodelero

Member
thats where i dont understand labor or libdems. they should frame the new election as a nother vote and should make clear that they will rescind the Article 50 notice if they win. that seems to be a much better strategy then what is happening right now.

I do actually agree that, at least for the Liberal Democrats, offering a second referendum seems like folly. They should put Remaining in the EU as a key part of their manifesto and leave it like that. If they did win the general election, they would then have a clear mandate to not Leave. It's a much clearer approach than the oft-confusing approach of offering a referendum on the final deal.

For Labour it's a lot trickier, especially given how weak Corbyn was for Remain. Most of their constituences voted Leave, most of their voters voted Remain. I think they've made the wrong choice, frankly. Their current stance makes them unappealing to both Leave and Remain voters. Taking a strong stance on Remain being the right thing for Britain would have lost them voters, but it would have galvanised Remain around them at the same time. It would also have made much more realistic the SNP-Labour-LibDem coalition.
 

jelly

Member
thats where i dont understand labor or libdems. they should frame the new election as a nother vote and should make clear that they will rescind the Article 50 notice if they win. that seems to be a much better strategy then what is happening right now.

They have a lot of MPs in areas were they voted leave so basically it would mean they have no chance of a job going down that path. People can be wrong and maybe they should do that but self interest will usually come first for a politician as well as following their constituents views but they are suppose to be more informed and make the hard decisions. I think every single one of them that went with leave are going to look bad after Brexit.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
is the hard remain group really that small?

About 25% of the electorate, currently split between about 18% in Labour and 7% in the Liberal Democrats. Shows how tough Labour's position is - most of their base are pro-Remain, most of their lost votes are pro-Leave. The party has more or less fully gentrified.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
I make 33% from a very brief cross-table look, unless I'm missing something? But subsequent polling seems to bear out that story. In fact, the most recent polling is even worse for the LDs, at least, because it shows Hard Remainers moving back to Labour for some reason (presumably because there are so few winnable LD seats that Labour is at least better than nothing).

According to my notes there were 1,000 people surveyed on 18th (day of the announcement), 2,052 in the poll published on 19th but conducted the previous weekend, and 2,024 between 21st and 24th. So about 3,000 out of the 5,000 polled before or on the day of the announcement.
 

Go_Ly_Dow

Member
If Labour were positioned as a Center-Left party as they should have been right now, I feel they could have really dented the Tories. It's really unfortunate.
 

Par Score

Member
Can somebody explain why Gina Miller is so hated?

She seems like a reasonable person that just tries, with legal means that are available to everybody, to block the brexit. As far as I know there is a minority that still wants an exit from brexit why does Gina Miller, who is not even a politician, gets so hated?

I can't imagine why, really.

MuWua0B.jpg


No, wait, I know exactly why. Our rabid right wing press regularly and irresponsibly demonises people, and little things like massive rises in hate crimes and the murder of an MP does nothing to stop them.

YouGov asking some interesting questions in their latest poll:

I know it's run and owned by conservatives but these are extreme.

Pretty standard questions on belief in democracy there, probably commissioned by the Democracy Index or some other pro-democracy think-tank. Or the Guardian.

Asking people questions like these isn't scary or unusual. The responses are what's scary.
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
If Labour were positioned as a Center-Left party as they should have been right now, I feel they could have really dented the Tories. It's really unfortunate.

Labour has moved to the centre-left once more. You seem confused about what Corbyn represents. He's so left in fact that we're concerned whether he's electable. There's both groups on the left and right that are Eurosceptic, look at Norway for example.

At the risk of sounding silly, would Wallace (a regular churchgoer in a small English village) vote for Corbyn's Labour?

If the answer is no then he's probably a bad choice as leader.
 

Faddy

Banned
If Labour were positioned as a Center-Left party as they should have been right now, I feel they could have really dented the Tories. It's really unfortunate.

They are centre-left. You just want to pretend your right wing ideals are actually left wing.

That is how you end up with petendy left government like Blair's Labour who give a little to the Working Class but give much much more to the corporate elites.

Like for example taking on a whole lot of expensive PFI debt financed by and benefiting the large accountancy firms who gave the OK to take the spending out of official debt figures, essentially cooking the books to their advantage.

So people got new schools and hospitals but have ended up paying for the project many times over while also paying huge maintenance contracts tied to PFI companies.
 

pswii60

Member
Andrew Marr interviews May: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ixwq3KJwy54&feature=youtu.be

May can't answer the question on why there are nurses who go to foodbanks.
We can't just keep putting more and more money in to the NHS it's fucking ridiculous. It needs a full reform. We'd be better off with a subsidised healthcare insurance system like the French have, the quality of healthcare there is leagues ahead of the shit we have to put up with in the UK because of the constant staunch opposition to any necessary change and this ridiculous notion that we have to keep everything free of charge to everyone. This constant and unfounded fear of privatisation. I'm fed up of hearing how we should be 'proud of the NHS'. Proud of nurses on low wages and long A&E waiting times? We can be proud of the amazing people that work in the NHS in such awful conditions, rather than the current service itself.

Meanwhile our other services and infrastructure are suffering and debt increasing. Crazy.
 

Morat

Banned
We can't just keep putting more and more money in to the NHS it's fucking ridiculous. It needs a full reform. We'd be better off with a subsidised healthcare insurance system like the French have, the quality of healthcare there is leagues ahead of the shit we have to put up with in the UK because of the constant staunch opposition to any necessary change and this ridiculous notion that we have to keep everything free of charge to everyone. This constant and unfounded fear of privatisation. I'm fed up of hearing how we should be 'proud of the NHS'. Proud of nurses on low wages and long A&E waiting times? We can be proud of the amazing people that work in the NHS in such awful conditions, rather than the current service itself.

Meanwhile our other services and infrastructure are suffering and debt increasing. Crazy.

You know we spend less on healthcare than other major EU countries right? And you know health spending has dropped massively since the Tory coalition? You are spouting nonsense.
 

Rodelero

Member
We can't just keep putting more and more money in to the NHS it's fucking ridiculous. It needs a full reform. We'd be better off with a subsidised healthcare insurance system like the French have, the quality of healthcare there is leagues ahead of the shit we have to put up with in the UK because of the constant staunch opposition to any necessary change and this ridiculous notion that we have to keep everything free of charge to everyone. This constant and unfounded fear of privatisation. I'm fed up of hearing how we should be 'proud of the NHS'. Proud of nurses on low wages and long A&E waiting times? We can be proud of the amazing people that work in the NHS in such awful conditions, rather than the current service itself.

Meanwhile our other services and infrastructure are suffering and debt increasing. Crazy.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but every source I can find suggests that the French spend significantly more on their healthcare than we do. I'm open to the idea of reform, but I'm always fairly anxious when someone starts talking up reform as a way of cutting costs.
 
We can't just keep putting more and more money in to the NHS it's fucking ridiculous. It needs a full reform. We'd be better off with a subsidised healthcare insurance system like the French have, the quality of healthcare there is leagues ahead of the shit we have to put up with in the UK because of the constant staunch opposition to any necessary change and this ridiculous notion that we have to keep everything free of charge to everyone. This constant and unfounded fear of privatisation. I'm fed up of hearing how we should be 'proud of the NHS'. Proud of nurses on low wages and long A&E waiting times? We can be proud of the amazing people that work in the NHS in such awful conditions, rather than the current service itself.

Meanwhile our other services and infrastructure are suffering and debt increasing. Crazy.

The NHS is already by most measures, a very tightly run ship.

And after we tanked the value of the pound during the last year, one way or another, it is going to need a much larger chunk of money to cover things.
 

Xando

Member
You know we spend less on healthcare than other major EU countries right? And you know health spending has dropped massively since the Tory coalition? You are spouting nonsense.

For interest sake, how much do you guys pay for healthcare in the UK?

Here in germany it's ~7% of my wage per month and another 7% from my employer.
 

jelly

Member
We can't just keep putting more and more money in to the NHS it's fucking ridiculous. It needs a full reform. We'd be better off with a subsidised healthcare insurance system like the French have, the quality of healthcare there is leagues ahead of the shit we have to put up with in the UK because of the constant staunch opposition to any necessary change and this ridiculous notion that we have to keep everything free of charge to everyone. This constant and unfounded fear of privatisation. I'm fed up of hearing how we should be 'proud of the NHS'. Proud of nurses on low wages and long A&E waiting times? We can be proud of the amazing people that work in the NHS in such awful conditions, rather than the current service itself.

Meanwhile our other services and infrastructure are suffering and debt increasing. Crazy.

You mean like this which just made the NHS a push over and leads to more cost and waste.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_and_Social_Care_Act_2012
 

Chocolate & Vanilla

Fuck Strawberry

RangerX

Banned
They are centre-left. You just want to pretend your right wing ideals are actually left wing.

That is how you end up with petendy left government like Blair's Labour who give a little to the Working Class but give much much more to the corporate elites.

Like for example taking on a whole lot of expensive PFI debt financed by and benefiting the large accountancy firms who gave the OK to take the spending out of official debt figures, essentially cooking the books to their advantage.

So people got new schools and hospitals but have ended up paying for the project many times over while also paying huge maintenance contracts tied to PFI companies.

Great post. The idea that New Labour's economic policies were left leaning is simply laughable.Blair continued Thatcher's legacy in many ways. I'm actually starting to think people are more right wing then they actually believe. Many don't seem to realise how actual left politics work.
 
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