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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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A couple of cracking photos from today's campaign trail.
She's like some near approximation of a human created by aliens but they didn't get it quite right.
chromatic9
Member
May's sturdy and robust copper-bottom government.
Huw_Dawson
Member
I think that is most likely, but:
1. The local council and mayoral elections
2. The manifestos
3. The battlebus scandal
And possibly:
4. A set of TV debates
All have a chance to affect the campaign.
This is going to be a weird campaign. If Labour hold up and 100,000 angry Lib Dems descend on LD/Con marginals, then May could well lose her majority.
If the Tories end up floating at about 40%, expect them to start getting seriously nasty, I'd wager.
RedSparrows
Member
David Allen Green of the FT, tweets in a human form:
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
It's probably a bit early to tell whether (at least some of the) seats that currently look like Labour/Conservative dogfights will still look like that come election day. The results from the local elections will give a better clue than the polls as to which way all the votes are moving, and if it looks like Labour are standing on a crumbling pile of sand it may be worth reassessing who has the best chance.
In my constituency for example Labour came second last time out, but a very poor third in the elections before that. I expect the Labour vote to wither and the LibDems to get back to about their 2010 performance or better, which might be enough to win depending what UKIP voters do.
Roberto Larcos
Member
I won't vote for a party that supports hard Brexit.
I won't vote for a party that wants doesn't give a shit about my right to privacy.
I'm voting on the basis that hard Brexit is almost definitely happening because that's reality, and I want the Conservatives to have as little control as possible.
Huw_Dawson
Member
The crucial question is if LDs are out in numbers. We don't win seats we are not fighting hard for.
Whenever I see this gif I hear a goose honking in my head.
This is from polling just prior to the referendum vote. A fantastic illustration of how far the goalposts have been moved by those in power and the right wing media in terms of what exactly the will of the people constitutes and "what people voted for".
Less than 15% of Leave voters believed that we would lose full access to the single market. Yet we are told again, and again, and again, that every Leave voter knew that leaving the EU meant leaving the single market. Yet we are told, again and again, that the only way to do Brexit is to leave the single market. Yet we are told, again and again, that Leave voters knew precisely what they were voting for.
Prior to the referendum, most Leave voters had no idea what the consequences of their vote would be. Since the referendum, there has been a quite extraordinary rewrite of history taking place to try and imply they voted for a Hard Brexit despite the fact that most of them actually voted for a Fantasy Brexit. What's really scary is that, while Leave voters, in the main, had no idea what they wanted prior to the referendum, most will now tell you with certainty that they knew it would mean leaving the single market, and that they knew it would be damaging, economically, in the short term, and, no doubt, as time goes on, Leave voters stories on "what they voted for" will continue to mould to whatever ends up happening (or whatever is being pushed for by the Tories on any given day). One day, regret may take hold, but right now confirmation bias is all that reigns here in Blighty.
Royal_Phalanx
Member
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/858456868729098245
Conservative lead dropped to 13% apparently.
CON: 44% (-1)
LAB: 31% (+2)
LDEM: 11% (+1)
UKIP: 6% (-1)
GRN: 2% (-1)
If only there was proportional representation, would be progressive coalition time.
Conservative lead dropped to 13% apparently.
CON: 44% (-1)
LAB: 31% (+2)
LDEM: 11% (+1)
UKIP: 6% (-1)
GRN: 2% (-1)
If only there was proportional representation, would be progressive coalition time.
Roberto Larcos
Member
If Labour isn't pushing for STV when they're polling 15 points behind the Conservative Party, will they ever? The only real hope is that a pro-PR, potentially election-winning leader takes charge after this election - the only names that come to mind for me there are Chuka Umunna, Stella Creasy and Jess Phillips.
I know 'Scotland' is probably a bit of a turn-off for a lot of people in the thread, but did no one else think this was worth discussing?
Theresa May came campaigning in Scotland and literally hid in a hut in the woods away from real voters. Between this and the empty factory visit, you have to wonder what the fuck is going on that these are the people odds-on to win the election by a comfortable margin. It's lunacy.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/theresa-may-campaign-event-in-scottish-forest-prompts-new-claims-she-is-hiding
If this trend continues the UK conservatives majority may be in danger.I wonder what share of the vote the tories need to win a majority in this election. I'm think around 38 to 39% this time especially if the LibDems go up to around 15% and Labour stays in the high twenties or low 30's.
But random but Robert Peston was a panellist on Have I Got News For You on Friday and Ian Hislop queried whether he would ask Theresa May her views on gay sex (given the difficult questions Farron has had). Peston said he would and she's on his show this morning I think. So, potential banana skin incoming? If he gets onto her voting record it could be interesting...
It's generally great, yeah. Other opinions are available however. The real talk with challenging Peston to ask this question was just a moment of seriousness - will be interesting to see if he follows through.
The media don't give May any type of scrutiny. I imagine Peston was just giving lip service.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
The most recent Electoral Calculus page is pretty interesting.
https://www.theguardian.com/science...nt-count-on-remain-votes-the-data-looks-bleak
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
In short: Labour is losing a small trickle in every direction, but actually, have remained surprisingly stable since 2015 (probably because they were already at their core vote). Their biggest problem is the small 'Hard Remain' group moving to the Liberal Democrats (although the most recent polling suggests that may not be the case...). Their problem is not that their votes are moving to the Conservatives, but that they're staying still and the Conservatives are absorbing UKIP.
The Liberal Democrats have had a small recovery, but it is taken almost entirely from Labour, which means they're very unlikely to win back many seats. Of the top 25 Lib Dem target seats, only 3 are Labour-held. The more evidence we get, the more I think the Lib Dems are going to underperform compared to people's expectations. 20 seats would be an exceptionally good night for them, in all honesty. The current projection actually shows them losing seats, although I think that will be counterbalanced by the incumbency effect.
The Conservatives aren't really taking anything away from Labour or the Lib Dems - a small trickle, nothing significant. What has happened is that UKIP is just collapsing and the Conservatives are feasting on their remains. The seats Labour needs to be most worried about are ones where UKIP did well and the Conservatives were close behind.
2017 is looking like it will basically be 2015 except half of UKIP voters go Conservative.
https://www.theguardian.com/science...nt-count-on-remain-votes-the-data-looks-bleak
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
In short: Labour is losing a small trickle in every direction, but actually, have remained surprisingly stable since 2015 (probably because they were already at their core vote). Their biggest problem is the small 'Hard Remain' group moving to the Liberal Democrats (although the most recent polling suggests that may not be the case...). Their problem is not that their votes are moving to the Conservatives, but that they're staying still and the Conservatives are absorbing UKIP.
The Liberal Democrats have had a small recovery, but it is taken almost entirely from Labour, which means they're very unlikely to win back many seats. Of the top 25 Lib Dem target seats, only 3 are Labour-held. The more evidence we get, the more I think the Lib Dems are going to underperform compared to people's expectations. 20 seats would be an exceptionally good night for them, in all honesty. The current projection actually shows them losing seats, although I think that will be counterbalanced by the incumbency effect.
The Conservatives aren't really taking anything away from Labour or the Lib Dems - a small trickle, nothing significant. What has happened is that UKIP is just collapsing and the Conservatives are feasting on their remains. The seats Labour needs to be most worried about are ones where UKIP did well and the Conservatives were close behind.
2017 is looking like it will basically be 2015 except half of UKIP voters go Conservative.
Corbyn is pro brexit, yes.
Rabbit in the headlights. And she's on Peston later this morning...
CyclopsRock
Member
You're missing something (and Crab has written a few posts about this but I can't find them on my phone so I'll just go over the points again): Firstly, no one says *every* leave voters wants X. Where are you getting that from? Who are these people *constantly* telling you this?
But more importantly, the four pillars are not piecemeal. If the question is "Do you want full access to the single market?" The answer would have been yes. It still would be yes. But if you say "Do you want full access to the single market if it also means having freedom of movement?" The number replying "yes" plummets. Since the first option - only having single market access - isn't even remotely on the table, how many people want it is basically irrelevant. With the options we *do* have available to us (give or take), the polling suggests a hard Brexit is the most popular choice (including compared to revoking A50 and remaining in).
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Too early to tell from these figures. About 60% of that polling was done before or on the day of the election announcement and, from my usual chatting to people it seemed to take about a week for the surprise of the announcement to sink in before they started thinking seriously about where they'd vote.
It might be right, but I'd wait for a few more detailed polls before jumping to conclusions here.
Daffy Duck
Member
We're going to be taken to the cleaners on the Brexit negotiations.
May on the Andrew Marr show does seem totally clueless about Brexit.
May on the Andrew Marr show does seem totally clueless about Brexit.
now that's an image
the penny is starting to drop for some of the journalists, they're shifting from fawning over may/crosby's shrewd politics to realising that it means they have no stories to publish ever and they are being taken for meaningless idiots
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
A couple of cracking photos from today's campaign trail.
She's like some near approximation of a human created by aliens but they didn't get it quite right.
?
LOL!
I'm watching her on TV at the moment, and 'poor attempt at speaking like a human being' just about sums it up. As I fully expected, endless waffle lacking in substance.
Drink every time she says 'strong and stable leadership'?
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I make 33% from a very brief cross-table look, unless I'm missing something? But subsequent polling seems to bear out that story. In fact, the most recent polling is even worse for the LDs, at least, because it shows Hard Remainers moving back to Labour for some reason (presumably because there are so few winnable LD seats that Labour is at least better than nothing).
Perhaps if you had read my post more thoroughly, you'd have realised the poll recorded not what people wanted, but what they thought would happen. This kind of makes everything you said moot, as you're responding on a false pretence. I am not arguing that the country does/doesn't want hard Brexit. I am merely pointing out the massive amount of revisionism that has occurred since the referendum.
The vast majority of Leave voters believe their vote would not cost the UK full access to the single market. They were wrong. The majority of Leave voters believed that other countries would follow us out the door but that is looking highly unlikely given the Netherlands result, and the French first round, and cross-EU polling. Almost half of Leave voters believed we would be offered significant concessions to stay. They were wrong.
In short, most Leave voters did not know what they were voting for. Most Leave voters believed the UK could have its cake and eat it too. These are entirely reasonable conclusions from the poll. I think now that a far greater proportion of Leave voters understand the consequence of their vote. There is a great deal of revisionism going on to hide just how heavily mislead they were. Worse, there is an enormous amount of confirmatory bias taking hold to ensure that they are content regardless of how different the consequences are to what they expected.
jimbobsmells
Member
Wow I'm watching the Andrew Marr show right now, May looks really uncomfortable.
So strong. So Stable.
Edit: "I want a good deal for the B-B-Blisitsh people". I thought my connection was stuttering but apparently it's her. Only time she sounds confident is when she's parroting the 'strong and stable leadership' line.
So strong. So Stable.
Edit: "I want a good deal for the B-B-Blisitsh people". I thought my connection was stuttering but apparently it's her. Only time she sounds confident is when she's parroting the 'strong and stable leadership' line.
Fernando Fernandez
Member
Nice to see the media hold the government to account, rather than the opposition.
Uncanny.
PJV3
Member
Her TV debate answer was pretty crap, she's meeting hand picked or Tory activist audiences, I would like her being pressurised more over it.
Daffy Duck
Member
I'll see some of you in hospital with a stomach pump attached then
We'll all be in the corridors together.
Lol. Genius.
On the EU, May was tackled about reported comments from Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European commission, that she was living in another galaxy when it came to her demands for trade talks before an exit bill of up to £50bn a year was settled.
May denied this was the case: Im not in a different galaxy but what this shows is that there are going to be times when these negotiations are going to be tough; we need strong and stable leadership.
lol.
Need to repurpose those PlayStation stability gifs.
May denied this was the case: Im not in a different galaxy but what this shows is that there are going to be times when these negotiations are going to be tough; we need strong and stable leadership.
lol.
Need to repurpose those PlayStation stability gifs.
May's right. She's actually in a parallel universe.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Going to have to catch up on Marr - Farron was on too.
She is going to get dogged with the TV debate question for the entire campaign. It is the counterpoint to her looking strong.
She is going to get dogged with the TV debate question for the entire campaign. It is the counterpoint to her looking strong.
Roberto Larcos
Member
Just a quick aside, things don't look good for the Lib Dems nationally, but they don't need to under FPTP. They might be wiped out in terms of voteshare in the north-east, but they'll take that if they pick up more votes elsewhere. I think there's a solid chance of a couple more seats in Scotland, Liverpool, Cambridge, greater London and the south-west. Many of the candidates for these seats are ex-MPs, highly rated within their constituency (Tessa Munt comes to mind), and I would be very surprised if they didn't achieve greater than the national swing. It'll be interesting to see which seats are targeted in terms of spending.
killer_clank
Member
perfect example of this is the 2016 scottish parliament election - they did pretty much the same or even worse than 2011 in the vast majority of scotland but managed to gain 2 constituencies (edinburgh western and fife north east) and they'll be hoping to do the same again this time (though the larger boundaries and higher tory vote make this a bit harder for them than last year)
Huw_Dawson
Member
We probably have no prospects in Liverpool unless Labour collapses. I agree we have shots in lots of constituencies (indeed I think that depending on funding and the national situation that number could be as high as 50 seats) but our realistic prospect is ending up on 20-30 seats.
Watched back the interviews on Marr. Farron got asked on credibility and gave a good answer - basically that at this crucially important election there was no point not having ambition. Otherwise good answers too, even if it more of a breezy interview. I really liked his reference to having stepped down from the front bench back in '08 over Europe.
May on the other hand really was in locked down campaign mode, as others have said. She'd absolutely not do well at a leader's debate.
nekkid
It doesn't matter who we are, what matters is our plan.
A couple of cracking photos from today's campaign trail.
She's like some near approximation of a human created by aliens but they didn't get it quite right.
A Men In Black-style human-suit.
Where's that guy who was defending her against our impolite mocking of these images?
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