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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
- Start date
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Remarkably, there is some more evidence of a slight Labour recovery in the past few days:
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (-2)
LAB: 30% (+3)
LDEM: 10% (-)
UKIP: 5% (-)
GRN: 2% (-1)
(via @PanelbaseMD / 28 Apr - 02 May)
I am finding this pretty unintuitive tbh. I was expecting Labour's share of the vote to move towards Corbyn's approval rate in the mid 10s. Obviously that may still pan out but it does seem like Labour's share of the vote is holding OK right now.
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (-2)
LAB: 30% (+3)
LDEM: 10% (-)
UKIP: 5% (-)
GRN: 2% (-1)
(via @PanelbaseMD / 28 Apr - 02 May)
I am finding this pretty unintuitive tbh. I was expecting Labour's share of the vote to move towards Corbyn's approval rate in the mid 10s. Obviously that may still pan out but it does seem like Labour's share of the vote is holding OK right now.
Miles Quaritch
Member
Jesus Christ, you really​ just tried to pull the coloured people voted for Brexit so it couldn't have been​ a racist/bigoted campaign/vote card.
Fuck outta here.
The rest is trash, but I do find it interesting that you label anyone who can relocate as 'Champagne swigging Hampstead elite' and the racists and bigots who voted leave as 'good natured folk...'
Gosh, if there only were some... unions made that facilitated free movement of people or something.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
If you track the subsamples across enough polls, it's Don't Knows and Liberal Democrats trickling back to Labour. They don't really approve of Labour and in the abstract want to vote for someone else, but as we draw closer to the election, realities set in and they realise there's not really that much of a choice - for most of the country, if you're not in favour of the Conservatives, it's Labour or nothing.
But then you can sell the bombs back to the army and make some damn good money. Wealth redistribution. Smart.
Hahaha why would you have your picture taken stood infront of it!
PJV3
Member
The only chance is an event the Tories can't control happening, I'd like to think people would realise handing these loons a massive majority isn't a good idea, but I'm not expecting it.
The most we can expect in terms of backfire, I'm afraid, is for the Tories to miss out on a massive majority and have to settle for merely a very comfortable one.
I think the real surprise of election night - and Huw_Dawson might will burst into my office and beat me with a slipper for saying this - will be how low the amount of seats the Lib Dems pick up is.
I think the real surprise of election night - and Huw_Dawson might will burst into my office and beat me with a slipper for saying this - will be how low the amount of seats the Lib Dems pick up is.
zonetrooper5
Member
Are you seriously suggesting that the UK isn't liberal, what world do you live on to think that?
Hell look at the many countries round the world that have it worse then us, some of them are also European countries.
OT, but dear God has the BBC news website gone downhill.
It has been for a while with paper-thin analysis and detail, "articles" that consist of nothing more than an interesting video (like that airline brawl one), and titles that are questions rather than a summary of the story. Getting into pure clickbait territory.
It has been for a while with paper-thin analysis and detail, "articles" that consist of nothing more than an interesting video (like that airline brawl one), and titles that are questions rather than a summary of the story. Getting into pure clickbait territory.
QuicheFontaine
Member
I'm a bit sad that the Greens are down to 2% though
PJV3
Member
I mean we have sunk to somewhere in the 40s for protection of journalism, we are going backwards and May has form in this area.
Audioboxer
Member
Guess I should be voting Labour? (fire your postcode in here and it "tells you" who to vote https://www.tactical2017.com/). Most of Scotland is SNP, I can only find Edinburgh South coming up as Labour.
Although it seems I side with has added extra questions since I done that above on April 20th.
Now
Also
lol. I guess you might say that from some UK based politics, notably around the NHS, education and de-privatisation of many of our services (rail/etc). Separation of church and state and publicly funded schools not being faith schools as well, maybe, I'm pretty set in stone there. Socially, in terms of discussing things, speaking, challenging debate and notably Universities teaching a varied curriculum under the scientific method, ehhhh, far more centrist. Although, I guess that is probably the Americanised version of me. As much as the UK is going through a rough time like America, our politics are still very different.
In other news following everything the last few weeks, time to go all in on Scottish Independence. Jeremy Corbyn and Labour stand no chance with the Tories.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/859088609093320704
Just gotta convince the mums
Overall polling for independence isn't bad at all. There is variation in sources of course, and both YES and NO are flocking to whatever polls further their narrative best. At least I think we'll get a chance to vote and the real sway in minds will happen during the campaigning. Just gotta get the upcoming crushing Tory win to sink in first and that will help. I doubt the rape clause will be helping mums/females views of the Tories. Thankfully Dugdale is even getting on board up here to sling shit at Davidson/May over it.
Although it seems I side with has added extra questions since I done that above on April 20th.
Now
Also
lol. I guess you might say that from some UK based politics, notably around the NHS, education and de-privatisation of many of our services (rail/etc). Separation of church and state and publicly funded schools not being faith schools as well, maybe, I'm pretty set in stone there. Socially, in terms of discussing things, speaking, challenging debate and notably Universities teaching a varied curriculum under the scientific method, ehhhh, far more centrist. Although, I guess that is probably the Americanised version of me. As much as the UK is going through a rough time like America, our politics are still very different.
In other news following everything the last few weeks, time to go all in on Scottish Independence. Jeremy Corbyn and Labour stand no chance with the Tories.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/859088609093320704
Just gotta convince the mums
Overall polling for independence isn't bad at all. There is variation in sources of course, and both YES and NO are flocking to whatever polls further their narrative best. At least I think we'll get a chance to vote and the real sway in minds will happen during the campaigning. Just gotta get the upcoming crushing Tory win to sink in first and that will help. I doubt the rape clause will be helping mums/females views of the Tories. Thankfully Dugdale is even getting on board up here to sling shit at Davidson/May over it.The Greens don't have to worry about their nationwide percentage so much - their focus is on the two constituencies that they have a genuine chance of winning.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Nope, my optimism about our seat count is based on us running excellent local campaigns to generate interest locally. Voting Lib Dem in a backwater seat where we came tenth last time is not very exciting. But folks want to vote for us in the seats we actually can win. It is a bit odd, but there you go.
I am hoping that the events of the campaign give lots of people to give the LDs a fair shake again. Tomorrow will be a big test of that. How well do we do vs Labour?
My expectation is currently 10 (horrendous night) - 30 (outstanding).
QuicheFontaine
Member
I guess so
Just saw this article on the Standard website btw, inheritance tax on estates worth £425,000? Sounds a bit barmy to me.
Audioboxer
Member
If any international GAF want to ask what an old leave voter is like, this is probably a good example
https://twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/859716281079132160
Also a Freudian Scottish Independence slip "I'm proud they'll be coming out of Britain...."
I'LL BE VOTING FOR THERESA MAY!
It does go to show you though Labour voters swinging to Conservative because Brexit is of the utmost importance. The Euro hate is strong. Not sure I'd call him a fucking idiot, bit harsh, but man, the comments on that Tweet are true
https://twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/859716281079132160
Also a Freudian Scottish Independence slip "I'm proud they'll be coming out of Britain...."
I'LL BE VOTING FOR THERESA MAY!
It does go to show you though Labour voters swinging to Conservative because Brexit is of the utmost importance. The Euro hate is strong. Not sure I'd call him a fucking idiot, bit harsh, but man, the comments on that Tweet are true
PJV3
Member
It might not be a vote winner but I don't see anything barmy about it, London as usual makes dealing with property values really complicated.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Well that's basically it. I thought the point of inheritance tax was to take from "the rich". I have a mate who owns a two bedroom flat in Cricklewood and it's worth about £450,000. The idea that he should be paying a tax aimed at rich people seems ridiculous.
PJV3
Member
Some people are calling leave voters racist, some of them are. I don't why either side struggles with this concept of some, most and all.
The average house price in the UK is £217,502. Compared to the rest of the nation he's pretty asset rich. In Wales it's about £140,000. In Scotland, it's about £160,000. In NI, it's about £130,000
DarthMasta
Member
Is £450,000 poor people money?
@Reuters
UK Conservatives see lead cut to 17 points: Panelbase poll https://t.co/78CpLZ8O2m https://t.co/yGTGU3VvNJ
Beaten I see
UK Conservatives see lead cut to 17 points: Panelbase poll https://t.co/78CpLZ8O2m https://t.co/yGTGU3VvNJ
Beaten I see
Linkstrikesback
Member
If any international GAF want to ask what an old leave voter is like, this is probably a good example
https://twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/859716281079132160
Also a Freudian Scottish Independence slip "I'm proud they'll be coming out of Britain...."
I'LL BE VOTING FOR THERESA MAY!
It does go to show you though Labour voters swinging to Conservative because Brexit is of the utmost importance. The Euro hate is strong. Not sure I'd call him a fucking idiot, bit harsh, but man, the comments on that Tweet are true
He is a bit of an idiot though. He clearly thought he was talking to a labour MP, despite all the signs around him.
No, but if it's in London, a quick Google puts that at below average for London house prices. There is a huge region in between poor and rich, it's not just one or the other.
PJV3
Member
It's like Mylene Klass bleating about her 2 million quid semi, maybe fucking up the city of London will make all this easier to deal with in future.
I get what Quiche is saying, I live in a very expensive house that isn't worth the money, i don't know if some kind of london exemption is feasible.
Audioboxer
Member
In most cases a game of wordplay, obfuscation and lowest denominator rhetoric to dismiss your political opponents. Calling out clear cases of it is fine, as it's happening, calling everyone something some aren't is poor form.
The real issue is how many otherwise "reasonable" people were convinced, and are still now acting like Malcolm above (such fury against the EU when a lot of the nonsense peddled during the campaigning was as outright a lie as you can get).
It's more about MSM propaganda and well-trained career politicians peddling lies and managing to convince people. Apart from old people being easily scared, without being overly generalising, I think a lot of them still come from a generation where they think if it's in a newspaper or said on the news, it's true. Nowadays that is not the case at all. Many white lies, or often full blown lies.
We're in some form of a democracy so everyone has every right to choose, so what is of a bigger concern is just how easily voters are manipulated or lied to, often with absolutely zero accountability from those who are supposed to represent the people.
True, or he probably just sees everyone as one and the same. Meaning any party or politician in favour of remain is the same as the rest, their party name means nothing. Hence why he can supposedly flip-flop over to the Conservatives after voting Labour "all his life". Any policies other than "Brexit" mean nothing now. As above I think the papers and MSM, and many politicians have done a good job causing this fear and frenzy in many Leave voters.
We are leaving yet Malcolm's rage and fury is still ignited like a loose cannon.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Oh, one other reason for my optimism. There was a poll of Kensington that had us on 16% without any real campaigning there. Not that interesting, right? That's a good third.
HOWEVER, they added a fictional 'Stop Brexit' party and re ran the question. In that seat, a seat we are not targeting, the LD vote and the 'Stop Brexit' party netted a majority when combined.
So in Remain seats there is a huge opportunity, if momentum gathered behind the Lib Dems as the Stop Brexit party.
That won't happen, though. My belief is that the best shot of that momentum was at a TV debate - Farron vs the Brexit Triumvirate. Because May opted out, that sunk that notion.
HOWEVER, they added a fictional 'Stop Brexit' party and re ran the question. In that seat, a seat we are not targeting, the LD vote and the 'Stop Brexit' party netted a majority when combined.
So in Remain seats there is a huge opportunity, if momentum gathered behind the Lib Dems as the Stop Brexit party.
That won't happen, though. My belief is that the best shot of that momentum was at a TV debate - Farron vs the Brexit Triumvirate. Because May opted out, that sunk that notion.
QuicheFontaine
Member
No, but this flat isn't exactly opulent. And his salary is not exactly high for London.
Average house price in Cricklewood (NW2) is £660,000. Average. Is inheritance tax meant to hit average people?
I'm aware that you get this problem with putting any figure as the threshold for inheritance tax, but that number just seems way too low. As I said, I thought the aim was to get money from rich people. When it starts affecting normal people, there's a problem.
Edit:
Could they not make the tax regional to reflect this then?
Edit2:
Or this?
Audioboxer
Member
I also thought this was quite funny
https://twitter.com/joeheenan/status/859300034441097216
Taken from this video clip which is funny/embarrassing
https://twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/858788580801601536
May on the streets? NO ONE ANSWER THEIR DOORS!
https://twitter.com/joeheenan/status/859300034441097216
Taken from this video clip which is funny/embarrassing
https://twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/858788580801601536
May on the streets? NO ONE ANSWER THEIR DOORS!
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Bearing in mind the median property in the UK is worth £204,000 and the mean property in the UK is worth £295,335, he's doing pretty well compared to most (both 2015, so they'll have shifted up a bit since then). Housing prices are distributed approximately speaking with a log-normal distribution, and I could probably do the maths at some other point, but just eyeballing the data, he has one of the top 20% most valuable properties in the UK, at the very least.
Conservative campaign at the last General burned off the nasty "tough choice" pledges early and then started ramping up the positives towards the end. Worked then, will probably work now, even if they don't have the same Labour/SNP coalition fear they played up last time.
QuicheFontaine
Member
But that's misleading! As I said in my post above, his property is well below average in his area. The fact that there are loads of cheaper houses in Wales somewhere doesn't make him any better off day to day.
The effect of this tax threshold is going to be:
i) tax paid on massive mansions outside the M25; and
ii) moreorless everyone inside the M25 pays regardless of how big or small their house is.
Again, my understanding is that i) above was the actual aim of this tax. The second effect is basically a by-product that seems unfair, and should be addressed imo.
Blackthorn
"hello?" "this is vagina"
More people in London rent than own, so while his flat may be below average in value, owning a property in London in the first place is no longer the average. Depending on his age, he may be even further from the average.
I do think it's sensible to adjust inheritance tax for London though, because of the insanity of house prices here.
Theonik
Member
Taxing London, and distributing that to the rest of the country is pretty much how the current setup works. Besides, none of this really matters depending on your goal. The purpose inheritance tax has in the first place is to attempt to fight wealth accumulation. The current rules are for 425k anyway. The 850k limit is under very special circumstances.
e: I mean many of the current arrangements both with tax and the NMW are not really going to work for London. The personal allowance is one of them for instance as that's meant to be following the NMW (it's not at the moment) but incomes in London need to be higher to account for the higher cost of living, so you lose that correlation.
Make it a single domestic residence exemption. Inheritance tax is not charged on a single property which is the normal domestic residence of the deceased at the time of death.
Yes, you'd raise a bit less. But it unambiguously solves the problem with house price differentials. London houseowners might be disproportionately paper rich, but they certainly don't feel so, and it *is* a reasonable ask that people feel that they don't have to worry about the fact that if they die their dependents are subsequently kicked out of the area in which they live and have their community and family around. And even if someone doesn't think that is a reasonable ask, they have to accept that it's sufficiently relatable that a policy that goes against it is a hard sell, electorally.
If I've got two houses in different places that add up to the same value as your one massive house, why should you be exempt and I be taxed? Or perhaps I'm not understanding what you mean.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Right, but he lives in a very wealthy area. Your argument would lead to the conclusion that we can't tax the property value of a millionaire if they move into a street where all the billionaires live, because the millionaire's property is way below average.
If you live inside the M25 and own your own housing, you are in a more secure position than the vast majority of people in this country. The constant notion that we need to exempt London from everything is half the reason the UK's economy is so stagnant.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Taxing wealth is progressive, even if the wealthy person does not feel wealthy.
I mean, we're talking about inheritance tax here. Not a tax that affects someone who owns a £450,000 home in London, but a tax on them passing their money and assets to their children when they die. Though I think it is good for families to be able to pass on something to their descendants, and while, practically, the rich will find endless ways to evade these kind of taxes, it's quite hard to complain about a tax that you pay, in essence, once you're dead. I'm not sure I can think of a more progressive thing to tax than inherited wealth.
Just yesterday there was an article on BBC News stating that over a quarter of homes are bought using help from parents. This is a country where your social class and wealth is largely decided by who you are born to, not what you end up doing. Inheritance tax is a relatively easy way to curb how important your parents' wealth is to your own, while also being extremely lucrative for the country's treasury.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Nice. Would definitely support the bolded.
Well, everyone has a different idea of what's fair, but personally I think you should be taxed for owning two homes, even if they have a combined value of Mindwipe's one home.
Having a roof over your head is a fundamental human right. Having a second home is an extreme privilege, especially in the UK where house prices are mental and many people are homeless. Again, that's just my view.
Theonik
Member
It seems this is what people want. Can I get a £100k tax exemption please? I am poor gimme tax exemptions please.
You get taxed on rental income on that second home anyway. But seriously though. Crab is right.
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