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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding

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But in the context to trying to increase social mobility which the discussion was about, surely engraining "if you're parents are poor you will stay poor" into the system is the worst thing you can do?

"If your parents are poor, you'll be born poor" is all I was saying. Didn't really think it was a controversial statement.
 
Now the traditions of how British press cover elections are weird, and if you stopped and thought about them, the obsession with covering every stump-speech to shopping in crowds or launching posters that aren't really everywhere would be totally rethought. Like, would they really get as uncritical coverage? Under any non-election situation, no. How we treat the news in this period is totally wrong and our traditions need rethinking


Except the tabloid tradition of following people in costume, and I'd like to say a big hello to the Mirror Chicken, as it tries not to get arrested outside Buckingham Palace waving a sign asking why May is too chicken, and getting on the TV cameras as well as some good photos. It's childish but wonderful.
 

kmag

Member
Lots of questions in here. I don't really want to do some massive list reply of my answers but I'll say a few things.

Just being born in the UK gives you a lot of opportunities to do well in life, and I believe that there's a decent correlation between hard work and reward. Sure, some people have a leg up on others, that's always going to be the case, and there's lots of factors that affect how easy it's going to be for you (some are just naturally talented).

I don't think you can legislate for people winning the lottery! They're obviously going to be the exception.

I find it funny how me being in line for a big inheritance is the only possible reason you can think of for not liking a low-threshold inheritance tax. How about this one: I'd like to earn my own fortune and leave that to my kids?

The UK is one of the most unequal 'developed' societies on earth, and has one of the lowest rates of social mobility The bootstrap notion is just so easily disproven. The most telling indicator of your earning potential is still what job your father had.

There are exceptions. Hell, I'm an exception. But it's not the norm. Government should not be catering for the exception at the expense of the norm.

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But hey we must just all be lazy compared to the Danish and the Norwegians. .

Arbeit macht frei
 
I feel they should go for single market membership considering that most people still want it, 4 freedoms and all according to YouGov. Only kind of Brexit I can live with.
 

Rodelero

Member
I feel they should go for single market membership considering that most people still want it, 4 freedoms and all according to YouGov. Only kind of Brexit I can live with.

As much as I want to take that poll and run with it, I'm not sure if those responding it had a clue what they are being asked. Kinda like the referendum.
 

theaface

Member
Leave won because it's hard to argue in favour of the status quo when many people are not happy with the status quo, regardless of how much worse a change would be.

Indeed. Throw in the "We've had enough of experts" and "Project Fear" rhetoric which are both so brain-crushingly stupid that it's impossible to argue against and you complete the picture of why Remain lost.

What chance did "a continuation of the past 40 years of continuous peace, co-operation and prosperity" have against "SOVEREIGNTY! TAKE BACK CONTROL! FUND THE NHS! UNELECTED OFFICIALS IN BRUSSELS! etc."?

It was an argument won through gross over-simplification, reduced to a catchphrase competition. For other examples, see:

- Make America great again!
- Build the wall!
- Lock her up!
- Strong and stable leadershziiizzzzzzzzzz.....
 
As much as I want to take that poll and run with it, I'm not sure if those responding it had a clue what they are being asked. Kinda like the referendum.

Nah, I saw the poll question's wording. I think they made it clear as day. I hope for more polls to come out on this same topic to provide a more reliable gauge of opinion.
 
But in the context to trying to increase social mobility which the discussion was about, surely engraining "if you're parents are poor you will stay poor" into the system is the worst thing you can do?

Correct. Inheritance Tax is one of the most progressive measures ever adopted in this country.
 

Mr. Sam

Member
Honestly, this €100 billion exit bill thing is tremendous for May. For one, it adds to her "The EU is ganging up on us and the only way they'll listen is if I have more MPs for some reason" narrative. For two, it's a nice big number that the EU will likely be happy to negotiate down from, making her look like Mrs. Negotiator Extraordinaire when we leave and "only" pay, say, €70 billion.

Leave won because it's hard to argue in favour of the status quo when many people are not happy with the status quo, regardless of how much worse a change would be.

An interesting point that I saw brought up was that the status quo vote did win - i.e. people roughly sixty and over saw Britain not being a member of the EU as the status quo.
 

theaface

Member
I guess this is what she means when she talks about all the "tremendous goodwill" which Britain will take in to the Brexit negotiations:

Theresa May has accused European politicians and officials of seeking to influence the result of the election through threats.

Strap in everybody! Toot toot! It's time for a sense of adventure as Diamond-Hard Brexit awaits! No deal is better than a bad deal! Things are looking pretty good!
 

That....doesn't contradict what I said though?

And I don't get how that quotation from the article is surprising. If I paid a ton of money for my kid to go to a private school I'd damn well want them to do better than if I'd just sent them to the comprehensive down the road. Private schools that couldn't achieve this would soon die out, no?

The UK is one of the most unequal 'developed' societies on earth, and has one of the lowest rates of social mobility The bootstrap notion is just so easily disproven. The most telling indicator of your earning potential is still what job your father had.

There are exceptions. Hell, I'm an exception. But it's not the norm. Government should not be catering for the exception at the expense of the norm.

<graph>

<another graph>

But hey we must just all be lazy compared to the Danish and the Norwegians. .

Arbeit macht frei

Interesting! Where are those graphs from?
 

Rodelero

Member
That....doesn't contradict what I said though?

And I don't get how that quotation from the article is surprising. If I paid a ton of money for my kid to go to a private school I'd damn well want them to do better than if I'd just sent them to the comprehensive down the road. Private schools that couldn't achieve this would soon die out, no?

Interesting! Where are those graphs from?

I'm still struggling to understand where you're coming from. Do you consider social mobility to be a desirable thing for a country? Because the policies you seem to like are anti social mobility.
 

Ghost

Chili Con Carnage!
I think the absence of any better ideas in UK politics on how to handle the negotiations, the EU kicking up dirt definitely plays into May's hands. If they wanted her out they'd keep as quiet as humanly possible to try and allow domestic policy to take up the free air.

But then from an EU perspective they probably don't relish the idea of the negotiating team changing and going back to square 1, so they probably do want the Tories to win.
 
I understand Quiche's point.

He believes there are many things that can affect a person's life opportunities at a young age. And knowing this he must vote Conservative to make sure poor people are blocked from achieving higher education places at prestigious universities.
 

Hazzuh

Member
May's speech was crazy. Trigger article 50, call an election which you say is about Brexit and then you accuse the EU of interfering in the election if they mention anything to do with Brexit?!
 

Rodelero

Member
I won't argue it's not somewhat progressive, but the changes made a few years ago made it much less so.

I feel those changes flew under the radar for a lot of people.

If you're referring to the various pretty hefty threshold increases, then for sure. One of various quite subtle but really nasty changes made by Osborne. The gigantic increases to ISA allowances are another one that seem to have slipped under the radar, despite being really gross conceptually.
 

Jackpot

Banned
That....doesn't contradict what I said though?

And I don't get how that quotation from the article is surprising. If I paid a ton of money for my kid to go to a private school I'd damn well want them to do better than if I'd just sent them to the comprehensive down the road. Private schools that couldn't achieve this would soon die out, no?

Did you even read it? The pupils who put in the extra work at the free school with the large classes and subpar teachers, and got the same grades as those in the better supported private schools, still didn't get as good a job.

i.e., hard work did not produce a reward.

Literally nothing in your post bears any resemblance to the article's content.

And that's just one example, there is a wealth of evidence that shows "bootstraps" is a load of shit when it comes to social mobility.

You've been given hard, indisputable data in the form of those graphs above. Will you actually change your views or just block it out?
 

WhatNXt

Member
May's speech was crazy. Trigger article 50, call an election which you say is about Brexit and then you accuse the EU of interfering in the election if they mention anything to do with Brexit?!

I did enjoy this in the twitter link Hazzuh posted:

"Theresa May claims stories about Juncker dinner "deliberately timed" to influence result of general election"
In the same way she timed the general election to influence the outcome of the general election?
 
I won't argue it's not somewhat progressive, but the changes made a few years ago made it much less so.

I feel those changes flew under the radar for a lot of people.

While it is being eroded, inheritance tax is one of the things that truly killed off the landed gentry. When the entirety of your wealth is hereditary, your clan begins to accumulate in a non-productive way.

It's the form of class warfare that I feel is most useful.
 
Indeed. Throw in the "We've had enough of experts" and "Project Fear" rhetoric which are both so brain-crushingly stupid that it's impossible to argue against and you complete the picture of why Remain lost.

What chance did "a continuation of the past 40 years of continuous peace, co-operation and prosperity" have against "SOVEREIGNTY! TAKE BACK CONTROL! FUND THE NHS! UNELECTED OFFICIALS IN BRUSSELS! etc."?

It was an argument won through gross over-simplification, reduced to a catchphrase competition. For other examples, see:

- Make America great again!
- Build the wall!
- Lock her up!
- Strong and stable leadershziiizzzzzzzzzz.....

I had a lecturer last year (never quite sure if he was German, French, or Austrian), who lived near the German/French border, and commuted over said border to teach at a couple of universities, plus flew to the UK for two days a week for a semester each year to lecture here. He was quite liberal, spoke several languages, pro EU, evidently benefited greatly from what the EU offered, and being an economist, understood that side of the remain debate.

Due to those factors, when I asked what he anticipated the referendum result to be, he would say 65/35 to 70/30 for remain. He was completely lost, and a little bemused, when I insisted that the referendum would be much, much closer (in hope at the time I thought we could remain), and said it would be closer to 55/45. I tried to explain to him that there were so many reasons why it would be so close (ignorance of the facts, ridiculous nationalism, older voters believing we would get the Empire back, ridiculous economic arguments about being restricted, 'taking back control', racism, a general tendancy to blame the EU for all sorts of problems, a large subset of the media hostile to the EU, people left behind by globalisation, conflating the EU with the loss of manufacturing in the west (and the lack of answers to deal with it), and the vote being seen as a general 'fuck you' to the government/Cameron (however stupid that actually is)).

He kept taking those arguments and ripping them apart, how the UK would be better staying in and fixing the problems that did exist (and he himself had issues with the EU) and I kept saying that I agreed with how ridiculous most of the leave arguments were, and that is it better to be at the table than now, but I couldn't quite convey that a lot of our electorate vote on heart, fallacies, superstition, what their parents/newspaper/cat tell them to. At the end of the course he was still adamant that the result would be a resounding success for remain. Poor guy. He must have been flabbergasted last June.
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
May's speech was crazy. Trigger article 50, call an election which you say is about Brexit and then you accuse the EU of interfering in the election if they mention anything to do with Brexit?!

Interesting. So this actually has an impact?
 

theaface

Member
You've been given hard, indisputable data in the form of those graphs above. Will you actually change your views or just block it out?

This made me chuckle. I really don't mean to single him out, but Quiche is one of the most prominent leave voters on this board. As far as I'm aware, he still thinks leaving the EU is the right course of action and a good thing.

That aside, I don't really 'get' May's end game here? Power? Just power and nothing else? What about legacy? Look at Cameron and his legacy? What use is being in charge if people will only remember you as being the person at the helm when it all went to shit? May's bullish attitude this week is seeing her fast-track her way to being the PM of a country that decided to shoot itself in the foot, then reloaded and shot itself in the other foot.
 

WhatNXt

Member
Did he deliberately schedule the dinner at Number 10 during this period of time?

I don't know to be honest with you. I'm pretty sure Downing Street doesn't have to host EU representatives unless its on an agreed upon date and time though. Do we know he wasn't invited?

Are all things in the matter supposed to be on hold until June 8?

She triggered article 50, she triggered the snap election. Timing is on Mayhem surely?
 
May's speech was crazy. Trigger article 50, call an election which you say is about Brexit and then you accuse the EU of interfering in the election if they mention anything to do with Brexit?!

The irony is that the EU representatives, no matter what have their words/actions regarding Brexit misconstrued on front pages of the Express et al to whip their readers into a nationalistic jingoism of David vs. Goliath, which actually helps May come June 8th.

Edit. Unless May & co. are fully aware of this, and using this as a front to whip up more 'MAY STANDS TOUGH AGAINST EU BULLIES' headlines tomorrow.
 

Audioboxer

Member
I understand Quiche's point.

He believes there are many things that can affect a person's life opportunities at a young age. And knowing this he must vote Conservative to make sure poor people are blocked from achieving higher education places at prestigious universities.

lol.

Public schools are great for aiding with socialisation, and a lot of good parenting will cover discipline, study ethic and things like confidence/self-worth/how to maximise potential. As long as teachers do an adequate job of providing teaching materials and the school, books/reading material, most students, in any school, have a wealth of opportunity.

Parents that think they can just hurl multiple grand for glorified babysitters to handle their kids often end up producing... Boris Johnsons and David Camerons. I mean, there's more to life than just saying look at my bank balance £££. Or look at my parent's bank balance which I've inherited.

Not to completely knock private schooling, but it's not an end all be all answer to parenting/upbringing and education. As I said above socialisation is often aided being around varying levels of income equality and all the types of people life can throw at you. For sure public schools can have terrible issues with bullying due to diversity, but that's a symptom of young minds/tribalism and often parental upbringing, which happens even at prestigious/private schools. A complete lack of socialisation often produces uncaring, selfish and at times downright sinister elitists who simply live for power/wealth (as long as it's restricted to their class). It's why a lot of the Tory party members utterly fail to appear "normal" around ordinary folks, can't do interviews and just seem downright selfish.

Too often it is simply adults completely unequipped to bring up kids, well before it's other kids faults or the schools fault. It is, however, important for schools to try and do what little they can to keep an eye out for kids who have it tough. As well as the local councils.

Looking after public education is important. I'm privileged enough to even have University level education for free (Scotland). Ideally, I think the whole country should have some form of higher education tax funded for free. Totally elite Universities can do as they please if they refuse to take part and just want to milk mummy and daddies bank balances and keep the "pesky poor students" away. Same goes for elitist primary/secondary schools. Government funding should all go to public equal opportunity educational structures. Getting in on some merit can be important, getting in simply because your parents buy you in can be left for the Eton boys.
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
If May's position is so weak that a single dinner can impact the result of the elections, maybe she isn't qualified for the position.
 
The most we can expect in terms of backfire, I'm afraid, is for the Tories to miss out on a massive majority and have to settle for merely a very comfortable one.

I think the real surprise of election night - and Huw_Dawson might will burst into my office and beat me with a slipper for saying this - will be how low the amount of seats the Lib Dems pick up is.

I'm not sure that will be much of a shock tbf. still a month to go, but if the only coverage is sparse with the main stuff being negative I don't see there being much of a shift in sentiments, but hopefully that will change. a couple of the incumbent mps are in areas that voted leave too so I'm sure any potential will be offset by potential losses. Just gotta hope the polls are irrelevant in target constituencies and local campaigning will will on the day.

that clip with tim talking to that bloke is good. hope it gets more traction. calm, polite, stuck to his beliefs while looking reasonable. You know we're at a low point in terms of leadership when someone actually talking to a member of the public feels like a good thing lol.

If the local elections are good then there might be a boost - but I fear a strong showing there might be scuppered by a slightly different electorate to the one that would have turned out if a GE wasn't called.
 

Zaph

Member
May's speech reinforces how uninterested the Tories are in actual negotiations - just setting everything up to fail. They're not delusional or stupid, they know how little leverage they have, so they've already decided talks will be a disaster.

This whole "strengthen my hand" bullshit is just to build up the Tory base for when the inevitable fallout happens or we get deal or no deal referendum.

The UK is getting played and humiliated, but it has to happen.
 

Mr. Sam

Member
If the local elections are good then there might be a boost - but I fear a strong showing there might be scuppered by a slightly different electorate to the one that would have turned out if a GE wasn't called.

I made a point earlier in the thread about the Tory war machine not firing on all cylinders yet. If the Lib Dems do well in the local elections and identify themselves a worthy target, it won't only be Labour who are the target of a sudden blitz.
 

Empty

Member
may is weaponising the story in a way that perfectly supports her message *sigh*

it's completely idiotic long term though. negotiating a good deal from brexit depends on both sides being able to argue a 'win', like with the good friday agreement. stirring up nationalist passions makes it harder for may to take home a decent deal with a few sacrifices and not look like cameron in 2015, whereas britain looking like an arrogant, whiny child in european capitals makes it hard or the eu to sell german/french etc voters on not trying to punish the uk for its choice.
 
I made a point earlier in the thread about the Tory war machine not firing on all cylinders yet. If the Lib Dems do well in the local elections and identify themselves a worthy target, it won't only be Labour who are the target of a sudden blitz.

They can try - attacking us is legitimizing us as her opposition.
 
I made a point earlier in the thread about the Tory war machine not firing on all cylinders yet. If the Lib Dems do well in the local elections and identify themselves a worthy target, it won't only be Labour who are the target of a sudden blitz.

fair point, l I don't anticipate that though so we'll see. I suppose being under the radar a little will help for a while but only up to a point. They're going to go gung ho no matter what in the closin week I'm resigned to a dispiriting outcome, but I just don't want to see anyone on the centre and further left go do down without a fight!
 
UK GAF Bonus Round: post the worst Facebook election/Brexit post you've seen to date.

"So The E U wants us to cough up millions before we leave. They seem to forget the countless lives sacrificed by Great Britain and the United States to secure their freedom and liberty, giving them the right to free speech and democracy. You cannot put a price on that! In hindsight we should have let Hitler have these spineless money grabbing morons."
 

Hazzuh

Member
may is weaponising the story in a way that perfectly supports her message *sigh*

it's completely idiotic long term though. negotiating a good deal from brexit depends on both sides being able to argue a 'win', like with the good friday agreement. stirring up anti-nationalist passions makes it harder for may to take home a decent deal with a few sacrafices and not look like cameron in 2015, whereas britain looking like an arrogant, whiny child in european capitals makes it hard or the eu to sell german/french etc voters on not trying to punish the uk for its choice.

The one thing the EU want to avoid is a deal which both sides can argue is a "win". The options are either Britain cave and accept some humiliating deal hammered out at 23:59 March 28th 2019 or toss itself in to the abyss of exiting with no deal at all.
 
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