Support NeoGAF

[gerg]

"It's like giving the 9/11 bombers air miles!"

:lol

 

[Withnail]

I remember on Daily Politics they said that infact the Tories will only get 1 or 2 seats from NI supporting parties

Thanks. That's actually a lot less than I thought.

 

[BGBW]

Would be funny if someone beat Sunderland to the first announcement.

 

[Reno7728]

Tsar Nicholas Clogg :lol

 

[killer_clank]

Thanks. That's actually a lot less than I thought.

Tories WILL form a government if they get that many.

 

[Hot Coldman]

The tallest Munchkin in Munchkinland :lol

 

[Veidt]

when is this shit gonna be automated :lol

 

[painey]

10:06 PM (GMT). IF they're using straight uniform swing to project the numbers, that would imply a popular vote result of about Conservatives 38.5, Labour 29.3, LibDems 23.3.

from FiveThirtyEight blog.. thats almost certainly not how the votes turned out.. so it looks like the exit poll is way too high for Tory, too high for Labour and too low for Lib Dem.

 

[Wes]

Sophie Raworth is so so hot.

 

[Chinner]

bbc saying brown has first dibs, ivee been saying this but you guys never believed me!

 

[thefro]

That's what Silver projects if the exit poll ends up being true (which is a huge IF).

 

[killer_clank]

bbc saying brown has first dibs, ivee been saying this but you guys never believed me!

in reality though, no chance.

 

[Withnail]

The press will go mental if Conservatives are the largest party but Labour try to form a coalition with the LDs.

 

[Kowak]

bbc saying brown has first dibs, ivee been saying this but you guys never believed me!

because he will last one day as PM

 

[avaya]

If they used uniform swing that would imply con majority.

 

[Chinner]

in reality though, no chance.

if he can't get anything then yah

 

[Veidt]

I love how the Tories who take advantage of the electoral system and who hate a reform,are now disadvantaged by it. Sweet fucking irony. :lol

 

[pulsemyne]

Very wierd exit poll.There's no way on earth the liberal vote has dropped. My bets is thy actually have more seats than the poll and the conservatives have less. The labour amount is pretty much smack on what all polls have been say for the past few days.

 

[xbhaskarx]

307 C, 314 L/LD
Hmm, Nate Silver projected 312 C, 307 L/LD.

That's what Silver projects if the exit poll ends up being true (which is a huge IF).

Wow.

 

[Zenith]

Thanks. That's actually a lot less than I thought.

Telegraph said it'd be something lik 14-20 seats.

 

[Sage00]

What did brain_stew say he'd be wearing/holding again? Let's try to find him.

 

[Kowak]

What did brain_stew say he'd be wearing/holding again? Let's try to find him.

a tight yellow shirt

 

[Varion]

People turned away in Clegg's constituency at 10 cus there were too many people wanting to vote and they couldn't handle it :lol Wow.

 

[killer_clank]

here comes mandelson. :lol

 

[baylon452]

a tight yellow shirt

with a yellow tie aswell? or was that for something else.

 

[sohois]

This is all so exciting, but i do not want to have to stay up to 4:00am to see what the result is. I'll probably give it a few hours.

 

[Kowak]

Paxmen vs Mandy

 

[Empty]

god i love mandelson sometimes. hilarious spin.

 

[Sage00]

Mandelson going for a deal!

 

[Mr. Sam]

I'll get the pistol ready to shoot my cock off and slowly bleed to death if the exit polls turn out to be true.

 

[curls]

here comes mandelson. :lol

confirmed :lol

 

[Gary Whitta]

Do these exit polls have a margin of error? Can they be wildly wrong?

 

[Varion]

"Do you have a problem with deals?" - Paxman to Mandelson

:lol

 

[Wes]

Election Night Paxman is like Rez on ecstasy.

 

[avaya]

Do these exit polls have a margin of error? Can they be wildly wrong?

Yes. 1992.

 

[Hot Coldman]

I'll get the pistol ready to shoot my cock off and slowly bleed to death if the exit polls turn out to be true.

No man! We need to outbreed the Tories!

 

[Zenith]

yep, team up with Ulster will give Conservatives a government.

 

[Veidt]

mandelson :lol

 

[Kowak]

I'll get the pistol ready to shoot my cock off and slowly bleed to death if the exit polls turn out to be true.

I just cant believe those figures because of the Lib Dems.

How can mandy defend labour when they have lost the most seats since 1931 go May.

 

[Scythian Empire]

Who dares to enter the Paxman thunder dome?

 

[Evlar]

That's what Silver projects if the exit poll ends up being true (which is a huge IF).

Hmm. Pardon my ignorance. Is there any reasonable explanation for why 10% of 2005 LibDem voters would stay home?

 

[Varion]

Do these exit polls have a margin of error? Can they be wildly wrong?

Yep. It was posted a few pages back but they don't include Lib/Lab marginals, they don't include postal votes (which can be like 20% of all votes), and have been ridiculously wrong before, like in 1992 when they predicted the wrong winner entirely.

Don't put too much faith in it.

 

[Wes]

Do these exit polls have a margin of error? Can they be wildly wrong?

Margin of error +/-10% (surely?!)

I'll quote this again from the Financial Times

The FT has cast doubt on the accuracy of exit polls. I'm not sure if you'll be able to read it behind the FT's paywall, but some of the reasons it gives for saying we shouldn't put too much faith in exit polls are:

• One in six voters refuse to respond to an opinion poll
• Up to one in five votes will be cast by post
• The exit polling sample barely covers Lib-Lab marginals
• Boundary changes muck up what historic data is available

 

[DECK'ARD]

Mandelson is trying some voodoo magic on Theresa May

 

[UnblessedSoul]

God damn I hate Mandelson so much

 

[Feathers]

Mandelson still the master.

 

[Chinner]

Do these exit polls have a margin of error? Can they be wildly wrong?

yes.
1992 poll said labour would win...but they lost. theres also quite alot of evidence pointing to show this might be wrong as wll.

 

[Empty]

Do these exit polls have a margin of error? Can they be wildly wrong?

they can easily be, they were wrong in 1992, don't take into account huge amounts of postal votes and are very unscientific.

 

[curls]

ROFL at the tory woman spinning.

 

[Sage00]

Do these exit polls have a margin of error? Can they be wildly wrong?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyvifYlqihA