Well that was refreshing. And depressing.
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UK PoliGAF |OT2| - We Blue Ourselves
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
To be honest, after watching that I suddenly want to leave the EU. I can't associate with a comedy show that bad.
Cameron's just tipped our new MP to go for leadership, in the most snide and cunty way possible. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLt_91IJGiE
On the note of another MP payrise. Shouldn't they really fall under austerity rules too? They're technically public sector and should suffer the same pay freezes.
On the note of another MP payrise. Shouldn't they really fall under austerity rules too? They're technically public sector and should suffer the same pay freezes.
This was brilliant :lol
It was somewhat refreshing to see a European stance on this since all I read either a BBC or Murdoch article on Europe and never our position from the other side.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Who?
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Hello people, been a while no?
Going to be my first and last post for a while, new job, GAF has become a bit disappointing as well, and the main election thread was pretty much the last straw for me, proved that there is not much room for "wrongthink" any more.
As for the result and the polls. I feel vindicated as do a lot of people on the right who had been saying for weeks that the polls had crossed over but the public polling companies weren't picking it up.
ComRes have a new experiment running which weights for turnout on a demographic basis which might be a good way forwards long term. For months it was clear that Labour were picking up support from people who didn't vote in 2010, the last few YouGovs had a Con lead of between 3-5 points based on people who voted for the four main parties in 2010. People who haven't voted in the past tend not to vote in the future and I hope the polling companies have learned their lesson that people who watch cunts like Russell Brand probably aren't going to vote Labour despite saying they will.
As for the shy-Tory syndrome, the mini-riot/"protest" the day after the election proved why people don't openly say they vote Conservative. The left in this country needs to take a long hard look at itself as to why they have alienated such a large proportion f the country. Browbeating people into voting in a certain direction only works in failed states like North Korea and Venezuela, in a free democracy where the privacy of the ballot paper and box are guaranteed cunts going on about evil Tories need to be completely and utterly disowned by the mainstream left. Bringing the likes of Owen Jones into the tent and throwing out the likes of Dan Hodges was a massive mistake, it is people like Hodges who made this Tory majority. Comfortable but not easy with wealth, disliked Ed, worried about the idea of the tail wagging the dog wrt to SNP and it was the Owen Jones type that were completely and utterly repellent to them and drove people into the arms of the Tories. Until the radical left are disowned and not given any oxygen by the mainstream left, that's Left Unity, Stop the War coalition, the anti-cuts protesters, there will always be a shy-Tory syndrome. It is a shame that we live in a country where people are forced to hide their true opinions for fear of being branded "evil" or "selfish" by people who are normally quite sensible.
Moving onto Labour. Disaster. Now the leadership election is also looking awful. If Andy Burnham wins then the Tories will be back in 2020 with a larger majority, he is not PM material. The only credible candidate is Liz Kendall. She can speak to middle England and the floating voter and probably even the soft-centre right like myself. I would probably consider voting for Labour led by Liz Kendall just as I would have considered voting for Blair had 1997 happened 10 years later. It is very rare for leaders like that to come along, Thatcher had it, she was able to reach into Labour's working class strongholds and siphon votes away. Dave has just done it by winning in unlikely places like Morely and Outwood among other working class seats. Tony Blair won in seats like Enfield Southgate and Finchlely and Golders Green which are naturally Tory. He was able to reach into the Tory vote just like Thatcher could do the opposite. Liz Kendall strikes me as the only current Labour candidate who could achieve the same result. History will show three "great" PMs after the war, Thatcher, Blair and now Cameron. Winning after five years of austerity is hard, increasing his share of the vote despite UKIP and austerity was supposed to be impossible. Labour can't go into navel gazing mode and get an idiot from the left of their party who broadly agreed with Ed Miliband's policy positions (vanishingly small as they were). If I were a Labour member I would be voting for Liz Kendall, not just because she is closest to me ideologically, but she can win. The others can't win, there is no route to power for them with Scotland out of the picture for the next couple of cycles.
Worse still for Labour is that there is a lot of chatter that Dave may run in 2020 and hand over in 2022/23 and they also have Messina and Crosby on retainer for the next election. Labour need to seriously up their ground game. From what I was told it was absolutely piss poor. Instead of talking to middle England and floating voters they were talking to their own people and their systems were complete dogshit AIUI. If the Tories can hold onto their best electoral assets (Dave, Crosby, Messina) and run against Burnham I have absolutely no doubt that Dave will increase his majority.
Finally, looking ahead, the economy is going to slow down, it is inevitable. I would say a small recession or maybe just a period of slow growth is around the corner and our roof is not fixed. Deficit still at 4.6%. Looking forwards to what Osborne has in store in July because we need to bear down on the deficit more than ever in the next year while we've still got some kind of nominal growth, a recession coupled with no inflation or deflation would undo a lot of the gains. We need to get the budget back into balance, Keynes was right that spending needs to be counter cyclical and since we are not in a recession or downturn fiscal tightening needs to be the order of the day. We also need a fundamental rethink on how to fund retirement, a higher pension age, individual social security accounts, ending all defined benefit schemes in the public sector all need to be looked at. The cost of old age is ballooning faster than we can grow the economy right now (even in nominal terms) and a non-partisan agreement needs to be had over what we can do to get it back under control.
As for what I think the government needs to do. Housing, housing, housing. As a country we need home ownership to start rising again, and that means building more houses and getting buy-to-let cunts out of existing stock. A 2.5% LVT would do it as well as removing the perverse mortgage interest write-off. If the government can bring in something like that it would release up to a million existing homes onto the market for sale rather than being locked up with bastard landlords. Forget right-to-buy with housing associations, that is not going to help enough people it will be a case of haves and have nots where people who already pay lower rent will get a chance to buy cheaper falts/houses while people stuck in private rentals will continue to get fucked over. We need private landlords out of the system unless they are actually investing money in building new flats and houses. As an example of how ridiculous things have become jtourretes sent a picture of a three bedroom flat in Hackney worth over £1m with a part ownership scheme listed as "affordable" housing. Insane.
Anyway, that's me done for a bit. I might pop in from time to time, maybe around the time of the referendum next year.
Going to be my first and last post for a while, new job, GAF has become a bit disappointing as well, and the main election thread was pretty much the last straw for me, proved that there is not much room for "wrongthink" any more.
As for the result and the polls. I feel vindicated as do a lot of people on the right who had been saying for weeks that the polls had crossed over but the public polling companies weren't picking it up.
ComRes have a new experiment running which weights for turnout on a demographic basis which might be a good way forwards long term. For months it was clear that Labour were picking up support from people who didn't vote in 2010, the last few YouGovs had a Con lead of between 3-5 points based on people who voted for the four main parties in 2010. People who haven't voted in the past tend not to vote in the future and I hope the polling companies have learned their lesson that people who watch cunts like Russell Brand probably aren't going to vote Labour despite saying they will.
As for the shy-Tory syndrome, the mini-riot/"protest" the day after the election proved why people don't openly say they vote Conservative. The left in this country needs to take a long hard look at itself as to why they have alienated such a large proportion f the country. Browbeating people into voting in a certain direction only works in failed states like North Korea and Venezuela, in a free democracy where the privacy of the ballot paper and box are guaranteed cunts going on about evil Tories need to be completely and utterly disowned by the mainstream left. Bringing the likes of Owen Jones into the tent and throwing out the likes of Dan Hodges was a massive mistake, it is people like Hodges who made this Tory majority. Comfortable but not easy with wealth, disliked Ed, worried about the idea of the tail wagging the dog wrt to SNP and it was the Owen Jones type that were completely and utterly repellent to them and drove people into the arms of the Tories. Until the radical left are disowned and not given any oxygen by the mainstream left, that's Left Unity, Stop the War coalition, the anti-cuts protesters, there will always be a shy-Tory syndrome. It is a shame that we live in a country where people are forced to hide their true opinions for fear of being branded "evil" or "selfish" by people who are normally quite sensible.
Moving onto Labour. Disaster. Now the leadership election is also looking awful. If Andy Burnham wins then the Tories will be back in 2020 with a larger majority, he is not PM material. The only credible candidate is Liz Kendall. She can speak to middle England and the floating voter and probably even the soft-centre right like myself. I would probably consider voting for Labour led by Liz Kendall just as I would have considered voting for Blair had 1997 happened 10 years later. It is very rare for leaders like that to come along, Thatcher had it, she was able to reach into Labour's working class strongholds and siphon votes away. Dave has just done it by winning in unlikely places like Morely and Outwood among other working class seats. Tony Blair won in seats like Enfield Southgate and Finchlely and Golders Green which are naturally Tory. He was able to reach into the Tory vote just like Thatcher could do the opposite. Liz Kendall strikes me as the only current Labour candidate who could achieve the same result. History will show three "great" PMs after the war, Thatcher, Blair and now Cameron. Winning after five years of austerity is hard, increasing his share of the vote despite UKIP and austerity was supposed to be impossible. Labour can't go into navel gazing mode and get an idiot from the left of their party who broadly agreed with Ed Miliband's policy positions (vanishingly small as they were). If I were a Labour member I would be voting for Liz Kendall, not just because she is closest to me ideologically, but she can win. The others can't win, there is no route to power for them with Scotland out of the picture for the next couple of cycles.
Worse still for Labour is that there is a lot of chatter that Dave may run in 2020 and hand over in 2022/23 and they also have Messina and Crosby on retainer for the next election. Labour need to seriously up their ground game. From what I was told it was absolutely piss poor. Instead of talking to middle England and floating voters they were talking to their own people and their systems were complete dogshit AIUI. If the Tories can hold onto their best electoral assets (Dave, Crosby, Messina) and run against Burnham I have absolutely no doubt that Dave will increase his majority.
Finally, looking ahead, the economy is going to slow down, it is inevitable. I would say a small recession or maybe just a period of slow growth is around the corner and our roof is not fixed. Deficit still at 4.6%. Looking forwards to what Osborne has in store in July because we need to bear down on the deficit more than ever in the next year while we've still got some kind of nominal growth, a recession coupled with no inflation or deflation would undo a lot of the gains. We need to get the budget back into balance, Keynes was right that spending needs to be counter cyclical and since we are not in a recession or downturn fiscal tightening needs to be the order of the day. We also need a fundamental rethink on how to fund retirement, a higher pension age, individual social security accounts, ending all defined benefit schemes in the public sector all need to be looked at. The cost of old age is ballooning faster than we can grow the economy right now (even in nominal terms) and a non-partisan agreement needs to be had over what we can do to get it back under control.
As for what I think the government needs to do. Housing, housing, housing. As a country we need home ownership to start rising again, and that means building more houses and getting buy-to-let cunts out of existing stock. A 2.5% LVT would do it as well as removing the perverse mortgage interest write-off. If the government can bring in something like that it would release up to a million existing homes onto the market for sale rather than being locked up with bastard landlords. Forget right-to-buy with housing associations, that is not going to help enough people it will be a case of haves and have nots where people who already pay lower rent will get a chance to buy cheaper falts/houses while people stuck in private rentals will continue to get fucked over. We need private landlords out of the system unless they are actually investing money in building new flats and houses. As an example of how ridiculous things have become jtourretes sent a picture of a three bedroom flat in Hackney worth over £1m with a part ownership scheme listed as "affordable" housing. Insane.
Anyway, that's me done for a bit. I might pop in from time to time, maybe around the time of the referendum next year.
So the Eurosceptic Tories have set out their stall, and their demands are nothing less than ending the supremacy of EU law. The 'Conservatives for Britain' group claim to have 50 members ready to campaign for Brexit, should Cameron fail to get that.
Feels pretty dishonest to demand that, given that that'd effectively mean the end of the EU. If you're wanting to just quit the EU, just say that. Don't make absurd demands then blame the others for not acceding to them. Thankfully Philip Hammond dismissed that central demand this morning.
Feels pretty dishonest to demand that, given that that'd effectively mean the end of the EU. If you're wanting to just quit the EU, just say that. Don't make absurd demands then blame the others for not acceding to them. Thankfully Philip Hammond dismissed that central demand this morning.
Sir_Crocodile
Member
Come on zomg, you know that poligaf's a lot more friendly then the election OT was
. That was the natural effect of having a thread in OT instead of OTC.They're fighting against the dying of the light really. I think they realise from the feedback we're getting from other eu leaders that cameron's going to get enough concessions to satisfy the public and win a referendum, but it won't be enough for them.
I do wonder what they'll do afterwards. The EU question has part-paralysed the conservative party for 25 years.
anonymous_abc
Member
After the referendum is before the referendum.... -.-
Huw_Dawson
Member
Settling the EU debate within the Tories is nigh-on impossible. If the vote is anything near close then all that will do is incentivise the anti-EU bloc to keep fighting, especially if UKIP are still a threat in 2018-2020.
(My hunch is that UKIP fizzle out in the next five years, though)
In other news, you lot read UK Polling Report? Comres' alterations to their algorithm are interesting. Basically, they are using demographics to lower the weight of those less likely to vote (i.e. the poor and young).
If this trend continues, do you think we will see even harder campaigning for the centrist middle class vote? Or will this encourage parties to try and activate those less likely to vote normally?
(My hunch is that UKIP fizzle out in the next five years, though)
In other news, you lot read UK Polling Report? Comres' alterations to their algorithm are interesting. Basically, they are using demographics to lower the weight of those less likely to vote (i.e. the poor and young).
If this trend continues, do you think we will see even harder campaigning for the centrist middle class vote? Or will this encourage parties to try and activate those less likely to vote normally?
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Just to rebut zomg above, no pollster so far has commented on a Shy Tory syndrome. There isn't one. All of the corrections to polling weightings so far have just been to adjust likelihood to vote by class, age and gender rather than just self-reported likelihood; because a Conservative voter who said they were 8/10 likely to vote is actually more likely to do it than a Labour voter who said they were 8/10. I've seen some companies claim that the changes in registration also affected things slightly, with some unregistered respondents having been included in samples. Basically, the election break-down is: young people and working class people don't vote, then complain about the system. Hoorah! It's nice to feel like you're in a maligned majority fighting against that wicked vocal minority, but that simply doesn't seem to be the case. Shy Tories are a thing of the 1990s, what we have now is Blustering Lefties or some such (EDIT: another commentator used Lazy Labour, which seems... apt).
Also three great PMs after the war and you leave out the greatest, Attlee. smh
Also three great PMs after the war and you leave out the greatest, Attlee. smh
The latter is what you would hope is more likely. I mean it worked for SNP.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
You can't "plan" to do that, though. Labour were leading the SNP fairly comfortably in Scotland until after the referendum. Being able to sell yourself as a party or candidate of hope and change requires particular contexts. You can't just do it, you need to have come after, for example, perceived decades of failings by the other side; and represent an entirely new guard in your own right. Blair did it because the Conservatives had been in office two decades; the SNP did it because Labour had been in office in Scotland for four and the referendum gave them the catalyst. When Blair came into office in '97, there wasn't a single former minister from the Wilson or Callaghan administrations left, so they couldn't be tied to that. To use American examples, Obama could only do it after 8 years of Bush. Kerry couldn't, and Gore couldn't, and they were both good candidates - but you can't run hope and change if you had anything to do with the last lot.
If your recipe for success is "do what the SNP did", you're effectively saying "wait four decades until people are so sick of the Conservatives they can't not vote for you".
Nicktendo86
Member
Epic post zomg, missed you in here.
The EU ref vote has passed, 544 for, 53 against. Not sure how at least all snp mps didn't vote against but there you go.
The EU ref vote has passed, 544 for, 53 against. Not sure how at least all snp mps didn't vote against but there you go.
QuicheFontaine
Member
I agree that electronic voting should be an option. The MP for my parents' constituency had to fly home from holiday (first class naturally - they were the only seats available - oh, and her husband too) for an important vote a few years ago. What a waste of money!
Still, if the SNP MPs are too apparently too dimwitted to understand the 'this door yes, this door no' system I don't know if an app with two buttons would really help them much.
Nicktendo86
Member
He hid in the toilet apparently to avoid being counted wrong. Real life getting the better of parody once again.
Edit: yes but anyone with a bit of common sense might notice that 330 Tory mps and no snp mps were heading to that door and might think hang on, this is not right.
Edit: yes but anyone with a bit of common sense might notice that 330 Tory mps and no snp mps were heading to that door and might think hang on, this is not right.
QuicheFontaine
Member
No, it's utterly cretinous!
CyclopsRock
Member
Hi gang, back from my short stay at NeoGaf borstal (think Davis in Scum).
Did anyone link to the, I think, ComRes graphs on their post-election analysis? Showed that the only age group to vote against Tories were the under 30's. All the rest voted Tory. I mean, people who just turned 30 were born in, what, 1984? Not exactly old white men.
Did anyone link to the, I think, ComRes graphs on their post-election analysis? Showed that the only age group to vote against Tories were the under 30's. All the rest voted Tory. I mean, people who just turned 30 were born in, what, 1984? Not exactly old white men.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Yup. If you look at the doors, you have to be fairly dim to get it wrong. Not to mention the tellers either side.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
ComRes' poll also records a recalled Conservative vote of 41% - as always, people like to remember they were on the winning side.
CyclopsRock
Member
Maybe they just walked through the wrong voting door? AHAHAHAHA.
But yeah, that's true - still, it's not entirely obvious that the Tories voteshare relies on pensioners, though they did certainly get a huge proportion of the old crones' votes.
Nicktendo86
Member
I turn 30 in January and was born in 86.
Not sure what relevance that has, but there you go!
CyclopsRock
Member
Nicktendo86
Member
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
My gut feeling based on looking at the data and fudging it a bit because people are devious sods is that the split mark is about ~45ish. Above, blue, below, red.
CyclopsRock
Member
Oh woof, I can't wait. Though it pains me to say it though, I'm actually moving out of my beloved London and up to Hertfordshire (a whopping 25mins away from KX on the train) at the end of the month. As such, I can vote with reckless abandon safe in the knowledge that it won't affent me! Mwuaua.
Nicktendo86
Member
Ha-ha. Golds and Biggs as second pref for me, same as last time!
osborne planning to sell the national stake in RBS for a loss, that famed tory financial prudence at work again i see
and his financial plan is dangerous and stupid
this government is already fucking dreadful.
and his financial plan is dangerous and stupid
this government is already fucking dreadful.
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
Complete stupidity. Blatant and shameless politicking. It would be nice if he could actually achieve a budget surplus before legislating for its permanence. The party he shames as fiscally irresponsible is one of the few to have actually achieved it.
Not to mention it makes no fucking sense. the financial situation in the Victorian era was completely different. In almost every way. Why would you legislate against the option of having a deficit?! If you are going to define there as being exceptional circumstances then there is no value to this at all. It is like the no rise in taxation legislature: just fucking don't raise taxation
Modern fiscal conservatism forgets the importance of long term investment as a cost-saving measure.
EDIT: The Guardian profile of Osborne is really good. He's a politician not an economist.
Not to mention it makes no fucking sense. the financial situation in the Victorian era was completely different. In almost every way. Why would you legislate against the option of having a deficit?! If you are going to define there as being exceptional circumstances then there is no value to this at all. It is like the no rise in taxation legislature: just fucking don't raise taxation
Modern fiscal conservatism forgets the importance of long term investment as a cost-saving measure.
EDIT: The Guardian profile of Osborne is really good. He's a politician not an economist.
CyclopsRock
Member
Lol @ that article. The Guardian in full on Telegraph-of-the-left mode, there. Firstly.
"The chancellor will use his annual Mansion House speech on Wednesday to exploit the political advantage of the Conservative victory in the general election with a new settlement that would allow the government to borrow only in exceptional circumstances."
"exploit the political advantage" of winning a fucking election? Yeah, you could call passing legislation an "exploit", if you're a moron.
Secondly, they literally made up "Victorian". The headline makes it very much sound like Osborne is advocating a return to Victorian economics himself. Fucking Murdoch.
"The chancellor will use his annual Mansion House speech on Wednesday to exploit the political advantage of the Conservative victory in the general election with a new settlement that would allow the government to borrow only in exceptional circumstances."
"exploit the political advantage" of winning a fucking election? Yeah, you could call passing legislation an "exploit", if you're a moron.
Secondly, they literally made up "Victorian". The headline makes it very much sound like Osborne is advocating a return to Victorian economics himself. Fucking Murdoch.
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
It isn't just the Guardian going with Victorian. And the reason for that is that is because they are restablishing a (borderline) Victorian economic body, the Committee of the Commissioners for the Reduction of the National Debt. Although it seems to still exist in some form anyway?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...ensure-Britain-always-has-money-to-spare.html Even the telegraph admit that it is a political trap for Labour
And it is fucking stupid because if you make rules with obvious get out clauses then they will easily be excused. It is a law for newspaper headlines.
CyclopsRock
Member
i mean as the article explains, osborne's plan is literally to return the government to victorian-era pledges on spending but don't let that get in the way of attacking the rhetoric rather than the argument
Politicians gonna politick. Who gives a fuck? It's not going to stop any politicians doing anything they want to do, they'll just need to live with the political repercussions (read: acknowledging the will of the people) that comes along with it. The Tories took flack because of the 50% tax - but that's only the case because of how "the people" felt. That's the game.
It's definitely a trap (albeit one that largely chimes in with Keynsian ideas of counter-cyclical spending, natch) but, well, this is politcs ain't it? He's not Monti, this isn't some technocratic policy factory. When Labour win an election, they can have spend alllll the money they like. Until such a time, it really makes no difference.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
It's only a trap because Labour are too inept to explain why good policies are good. I mean, I don't like Osbourne, but your energies are better served by getting involved in the Labour leadership contest.
terrisus
Member
Aha, thanks <goes to lurk>
Nicktendo86
Member
Jeremy Corbyn is on the ballot! 15% of labour mps thinks he should be leader.
Words, I have none.
Words, I have none.
CyclopsRock
Member
I'd love it if Corbyn got the nomination. It'll put to bed the "we need to more left/right!" debate.
Hell I have wanted to ditch the EU for years but that just makes me want to do it in the most immensely bitter way as possible.
Veto everything, tie up everything in as much bureaucracy as possible and then just stand up and yell 'fuck it bitches! I'm out!'.
CyclopsRock
Member
Oh shit, I only just saw that German show. Why are we represented by a hasidic jew?
Nicktendo86
Member
47 labour mps didn't bother to nominate a leadership candidate.
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