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[papelnabangka]

i think that, on the whole, gaf was as optimistic on wii and as pessimistic on ps3 as you could get away with, in retrospect. very few thought wii would remain so popular all year long or that ps3 would struggle so much. it just hadn't set in completely by january.

it still hasn't set in for a few people.

you remind me of lapsed, in that you're not really a fan of the actual system,.or even nintendo. You just love thier strategy.


hmmm.

 

[jman2050]

The only thing I know for sure, is that the Wii is going to blow away everyones expectations for this year, and Nintendo will sell at capacity for the entire year, around the entire globe.

I've been on GAF for 5 years now... and you guys say this every year

Hmmmmm.......

 

[AniHawk]

might as well put this here

2007 actuals vs. predictions, by system

System	Actual	NeoGAF	Off	Pachter	Off
NDS	8,500	7,590	910	6,000	2,500
Wii	6,290	5,273	1,017	7,000	710
360	4,620	4,971	351	4,500	120
PSP	3,820	2,888	932	3,400	420
PS2	3,970	3,717	253	3,500	470
PS3	2,560	3,626	1,066	4,500	1,940
Total	29,760	28,066	4,529	28,900	6,160
					
*All numbers expressed in thousands

Looks like I was really damn close for the PS2, PSP, and 360. Only 500k off on the PS3. I thought my 7.5m prediction for the DS was high, but it looks like the Wii was what actually killed me (I was still in denial that a Nintendo console would reign supreme for one whole year).

Thanks for all the effort you put into this, Odysseus, donny.

 

[Odysseus]

you remind me of lapsed, in that you're not really a fan of the actual system,.or even nintendo. You just love thier strategy.


hmmm.

did you... did you just... call me...

goodbye, cruel world, it was nice knowing ye.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

did you... did you just... call me...

goodbye, cruel world, it was nice knowing ye.

HE KNOWS NOT WHAT HE'S SAYING!!!

Don't leave me my shining knight!

*hears gunshot in the background*

*cries*

 

[hellclerk]

oh laudy, people were so wrong with the Wii, and couldn't even predict the DS's ownage.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

guess people forgot about upcoming PS3 07 exclusives like heavenly sword, motorstorm, lair, warhawk, etc

:lol

2007, year of the PS3!

 

[Thunder Monkey]

:lol

2007, year of the PS3!

There's a lot of crow eating quotes throughout this thread.

It's kind of funny how high so many thought the PS3 would go this year, for it to crash and burn like it has.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

There's a lot of crow eating quotes throughout this thread.

It's kind of funny how high so many thought the PS3 would go this year, for it to crash and burn like it has.

Who cares? 2008 is the year of the PS3!

Spoiler

I'm surprised at how accurate many people were, actually.

 

[Odysseus]

if all else fails, 2009.

 

[Man God]

if all else fails, 2009.

Pffffph! They have until 2016 at least.

 

[KINGMOKU]

The only thing I know for sure, is that the Wii is going to blow away everyones expectations for this year, and Nintendo will sell at capacity for the entire year, around the entire globe.


If they can produce 10million, they will sell 10million.


PS3 will start out slow, from January to about may, and then start to see a pick-up during june/july, and everyone will spell doom for the console. It will pick-up, and start to maintain decent numbers, but far below what the expectations were, and far off from any kind of PS1/PS2 type of numbers.

The 360 will almost mirror its months from a year ago, picking up no real steam untill the holiday season/Halo3 release.

The Wii will pass the 360 by the start of December globaly


I am not making these predictions based on anything but current trends I see in the marketplace. No bias, just the cold hard facts, as I see them

If I'm wrong, i'm wrong, but it doesnt seem likely.


The only thing that could throw everything I just stated into a tailspin, are un-expected price-cuts. If Microsoft does have a signifigant price reduction(50$ or more) we could see a really nice spike during that month, and the following months. The same is also true for Sony if they drop the pirce by at least 100$ I think Sony's problem is far more then price based, as it now seems that people see the 360 as the same as the PS3, iwth a cheaper price, and better games, and the Wii as something different and quirky. Ps3 bieng caught in that rock and a hard place that the Gamecube sat it during its lifespan. The price is just a compounding factor making it a hell of alot worse.

Damn I forgot about this thread. I think I did pretty damn nice.

I think I NAILED all three consoles.

 

[Sharp]

Damn I forgot about this thread. I think I did pretty damn nice.

I think I NAILED all three consoles.

Why did you bold the PS3 price spike prediction but not the MS one?

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Who cares? 2008 is the year of the PS3!

Spoiler

I'm surprised at how accurate many people were, actually.

Yeah, I was over exaggerating a bit.

Pachter was really off on his PS3 2007 projection though.

I hope 2008's gets started soon, I want to get my projections out there before I'm banned and all.

 

[KINGMOKU]

Why did you bold the PS3 price spike prediction but not the MS one?

That was already bolded from before. I was placing emphisis on the number, not the company. As in they have to drop it at least 100$.

 

[Alcibiades]

the way the momentum is going, I'd say if Nintendo can win it big this year and establish themselves industry leader again:

X = Wii sales

.35X = 360 sales (Halo 3 will help at year end)

.15X = PS3 sales (Blu-ray will keep this thing alive, but a Japan situation isn't out of the question)

it's hard to predict hardware because it all depends on what each company can ship... Nintendo talks a good talk but NEVER delivers on hardware numbers, but as long as they can ship more than the other 2 systems, they'll be far ahead in the game...

Seems I was a little optimistic in Wii sales, but if all 3 manufactors had a supply of infinity, Nintendo might have even surpassed these predictions.

 

[duderon]

I'll take 4th place and retire from predicting. Nice job CVX!

lovefoxxxwooo.gif

 

[GhaleonEB]

360: 5m
Wii: 5m
PS2: 5.5m
PS3: 3.5m
PSP: 4.2m
DS: 8.8m

Xbox 360 4.62 million
Wii 6.29 million
PlayStation 2 3.97 million
PlayStation 3 2.56 million
PlayStation Portable 3.82 million
Nintendo DS 8.50 million

I was pretty close on the 360, PSP and DS. I didn't think the Wii would do gangbusters until the fall, over-estimated the PS2 and didn't take into account just how hard the price would hit the PS3. I suspect the PS3 in 2008 is going to do similar numbers to the 360 in 2007 when it's all said and done.

 

[the_id]

Sales-age GAF could one day be used by investors for company stocks.
Believe.

 

[thestopsign]

Looks like I should stop predicting. :lol

 

[donny2112]

Thanks to Nintendo providing GBA results to Kotaku (thanks, apujanata!), we can now add in the GBA to the results.

First the professional:

Pachter - 6.8

That means he was 6.8 million off for the year. That would've tied him for 21st place. Our average was 5.5 million off for the year, which would've been 8th place. Here are the other results.

Amateurs with full predictions
1. cvxfreak - 3.7
2. Heidir - 4.4
3. duderon - 4.6
4. Branduil - 4.7
5. AniHawk - 5
6. starship - 5.2
7. Bungalow Bob - 5.4
8. doicare - 5.5
8. Busaiku - 5.5
10. Aadil - 5.7
10. GhaleonEB - 5.7
12. Earthstrike - 5.8
12. argon - 5.8
12. DefectiveReject - 5.8
12. Syringe - 5.8
16. jarrod - 6
17. «þ» - 6.3
18. DarkMehm - 6.4
19. the thoroughbred - 6.5
20. Barf_the_Mog - 6.6
21. bycha - 6.8
22. donny2112 - 7
22. JoshuaJSlone - 7
24. Bo130 - 7.1
25. LiquidMamba - 7.2
26. mylilbuddy - 7.3
27. Deku - 7.6
28. Stopsign - 7.7
29. BuzzJive - 7.9
30. CrisKre - 8
30. Frankfurter - 8
32. NomarTyme - 8.1
33. jj984jj - 8.3
34. DeaconKnowledge - 8.4
34. Nander - 8.4
36. Forgotten Ancient - 8.6
37. MasterMFauli - 8.9
38. farnham - 16.7

Congratulations, cvxfreak! This is the second year in a row you've won! :lol

No one got the total hardware number correct (i.e. ignoring individual system diffs).

 

[thestopsign]

Hey, that put me up 9 places, a little better I guess.

 

[Psychotext]

Companies are going to be watching cvxfreak's predictions closely for news of the coming year! :lol

 

[sphinx]

Congratulations, cvxfreak! This is the second year in a row you've won! :lol

Wow, congrats to cvxfreak. Better than most professional analysts for 2 years in a row :O... impressive.