We'll have to see how PS5 momentum holds up post-2023. Gonna come down to what AAA and AA traditional titles Sony's 1P (and 3P through co-development deals) have cooking up, and of course what 3P exclusives they land, how significant they are, and if their PC strategy accelerates ports of traditional 1P titles or not (IMO it shouldn't). Any combination of those where there's more good than bad could slow momentum down heavily.
Meanwhile, Xbox has been tracking at OG Xbox sales levels more or less the entire year globally, and Starfield wasn't enough to really change that. Maybe finalizing ABK will? Their big games on PC aren't doing that well outside of I'd say Minecraft, Sea of Thieves, Age of Empires and Elder Scrolls Online (two of those only being theirs through acquisitions). Right now I'd say the brand is somewhere between OG Xbox and XBO in terms of overall health (financially, optically, mindshare, software quality).
Although I'd say XBO was better mindshare-wise, and OG Xbox in terms of 1P & 3P exclusives software quality (and especially mindshare-wise with select games, such as Halo and Halo 2). ATM even a tepid Switch 2 should manage to easily outpace Xbox Series at the current rate; real question is if they can be competitive with or outpace the PS5, and that would be Sony's game to lose.