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[TheXbox]

NK wouldn't last a year without economic support from China and SK. If they were completely sanctioned they would collapse.

Doesn't a regime collapse also pose a ton of danger? Who gets the nukes once the military loses control of them? At least right now they're in stable, predictable hands.

 

[ElectricBlanketFire]

I don't really trust this story

Why?

 

[pswii60]

Can we trust them? I mean, they've been wrong about Iraq having WMDs and all, right?

Hahahahahahahahahahafudgeeverything probably ends this year.

Yeah I don't believe this at all. It's all very convenient, given that only a few weeks ago experts were saying it would be 'years' before they could produce one. The US wants to attack now and they're just now starting the spin cycle.

 

[Muffin1611]

Then surely the question should be why didn't we act sooner.

Because they also have conventional artillery aimed at major South Korean cities that would get just as obliterated in case of an attack.

 

[Oriel]

No offense but kim is probably more stable and less paranoid than the current US president.

This is actually true. If you look at North Korean's strategic goals and policies they have been broadly consistent for many years now. They have a plan and stick to it. Contrast this with Trump who is all over the place and so unpredictable.

 

[Jackpot]

If they actually do have nukes then war is inevitable and probably necessary.
War should always be a last resort but if they have any kind of nukes then you can't just keep on waiting and waiting. They will get bigger and more powerful nukes in a short matter of time and then we're all fucked.

North Kore has had nukes since 2006.

And somehow you've survived those 11 years no problem.

 

[VendettaRed07]

No no no no no.

you people literally don't know what your advocating.

Likely entire cities gone, tens of millions dead, a US city or more possibly destroyed by a nuke.

This is no inevitable nor necessary.

We have ICBMs pointed at us by the Chinese and Russians. Nukes are defensive.

The only way the North would use nukes is if we attack them. Any attack by them would be suicidal.

North Korea isn't a rational actor and it cannot be assumed that if they had nuclear weapons that they would not use them.

We can't charge in alone on this but we can't just sit on our hands and wait for them to blow up Japan or something. I think it's crazy to assume there's no chance they wouldn't do that. They've been launching and testing rockets constantly despite repeated warnings but the entire fucking world to stop.

Why would they start to wise up and act rational when they make the next step?

 

[John Rabbit]

Jesus fucking Christ, people. We aren't going to war over this, stop perpetuating fear.

While I agree with you, I don't think anyone gets to make declarative statements like this anymore.

 

[Psychoward]

My sister is in Japan and my mom's in South Korea right now ugh

 

[jfkgoblue]

NK may not use them, but they sure as shit will use them as a deterrence to build up an offensive military force into the South.

 

[Hesemonni]

Are they from the same manufacturer as the WMDs Saddam had?

 

[Dali]

You're still not getting any sanctions lifted NK. Or actually maybe you will get sanctions lifted but you'll have to bend over, spread your butt cheeks and cough for inspectors routinely if you want any lifted and to stay lifted. I'm sure that's what you guys wanted right?

 

[Smiles and Cries]

Japan said the same thing a few days ago.

they don't trust this story?

 

[TetraGenesis]

The thing I feared the most with a Trump presidency seems inevitable at this point.

Yep. This was always what I feared even more than the Supreme Court appointments, the bad governorship, the financial ruin, the atmosphere of civil unrest and violence. Giving Trump the ability to declare war -- giving Trump the nuclear launch codes -- may just be the worst thing that ever happened on this planet.

 

[Chezzymann]

CNN reporting this now

 

[Purkake4]

Apparently GAF does not understand how deterrence works.

 

[friskykillface]

North Korea (and sadly South Korea ) would be wiped off the face of the earth in 1 day if they get anywhere near the USA with a nuke.

 

[Kusagari]

Doesn't a regime collapse also pose a ton of danger? Who gets the nukes once the military loses control of them? At least right now they're in stable, predictable hands.

Exactly. Right now the regime is stable. If China abandons them, like people want, and they're pushed to the brink; that's the time to actually worry about a nuke going off.

 

[ApharmdX]

Nope.

What it means is that North Korea will most likely be joining the other world leaders at future meetings, which is effectively all they ever wanted, validation.

Kim has zero interest in actual war. He just wants a seat at the big boy table.

This is my take on it as well. Being a nuclear power makes being invaded unlikely. Being a nuclear power with ICBM delivery systems takes attack totally off the table and forces both sides to acknowledge each other on more-or-less equal footing. Which is why North Korea has pushed their nuclear program, and why Iran will continue trying to develop theirs. As you say, it buys you a seat at the big boy table.

Trump has to have someone in his circle to make him see this, right?

Why the fuck did this have to happen under Trump? We are screwed.

"Both sides are the same", "her emails", Russia, Benghazi, etc.

I hope fence-sitters and "undecideds" learned that elections have consequences.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

North Korea isn't a rational actor and it cannot be assumed that if they had nuclear weapons that they would not use them.

We can't charge in alone on this but we can't just sit on our hands and wait for them to blow up Japan or something. I think it's crazy to assume there's no chance they wouldn't do that. They've been launching and testing rockets constantly despite repeated warnings but the entire fucking world to stop.

Why would they start to wise up and act rational when they make the next step?

Everything they have done is entirely consistent with self-preservation.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Japan said the same thing a few days ago.

This article seems that the Japanese public assessment prompted US officials to confirm, so its not as to be seen that its just the Japanese who claimed this.

While more than a decade has passed since North Korea's first nuclear detonation, many analysts believed it would be years before the country's weapons scientists could design a compact warhead that could be delivered by missile to distant targets. But the new assessment, a summary document dated July 28, concludes that this critical milestone has already been reached.

”The IC [intelligence community] assesses North Korea has produced nuclear weapons for ballistic missile delivery, to include delivery by ICBM-class missiles," the assessment states, in an excerpt read to The Washington Post. The assessment's broad conclusions were verified by two U.S. officials familiar with the document. It is not yet known whether the reclusive regime has successfully tested the smaller design, although North Korean officially last year claimed to have done so.

The DIA and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.

An assessment this week by the Japanese Ministry of Defense also concludes there is evidence to suggest that North Korea has achieved miniaturization.

It was dated the 28th but just leaked today after the Japanese report

North Korea isn't a rational actor and it cannot be assumed that if they had nuclear weapons that they would not use them.

We can't charge in alone on this but we can't just sit on our hands and wait for them to blow up Japan or something. I think it's crazy to assume there's no chance they wouldn't do that. They've been launching and testing rockets constantly despite repeated warnings but the entire fucking world to stop.

Why would they start to wise up and act rational when they make the next step?

It is, and every one of their behaviors has been predictable and rational. This statement is false.

And your second paragraph makes no logical sense. Why does testing them mean they mean to use them preemptively.

And if we want to stop them from using it preemptively there's things we can do to ensure they know we don't want regime change, that we will retaliate (put japan under our umbrella), sign a formal piece deal, etc.

 

[Krakatoa]

Are they from the same manufacturer as the WMDs Saddam had?

Yeah, I'm getting this feeling as well. Lets see some receipts.

 

[GoldenEye 007]

North Kore has had nukes since 2006.

And somehow you've survived those 11 years no problem.

Well they didn't have a reliable delivery system, then. Being able to deliver those potentially represents a massive paradigm shift.

 

[Xando]

they don't trust this story?

No, they believe NK has miniturized a nuclear warhead onto an ICBM

 

[Oriel]

Well they have that now, I guess I should've phrased my question better. I know self-preservation was the main goal of their nuclear program, but do they have anything else beyond that? Are they willing to see their economy and markets open up if it means American war is no longer a threat to them? I'm not well versed in their regional politics. And I expect not many are.

Long term, reunification on their terms and the Americans completely off the Korean peninsula.

 

[Orniletter]

Then surely the question should be why didn't we act sooner.

China used to throw it's massive weight behind NK.

 

[jamieson87]

If the US managed to justify war in Iraq by using their apparent ownership of WMD's, which turned out not to be true. How can we accept NK actually having them, with concrete evidence.

 

[theignoramus]

No one's seriously worried about Kim preemptively launching a strike. The danger lies in how he responds when Trump inevitably makes a bad call. When Donnie has a bad day and decides to strike first, which US city wins the nuclear lottery in Kim's last "fuck you"?

Facts. NK won't strike first but they absolutely will respond if theyre attacked.

 

[Brawly Likes to Brawl]

Apparently GAF does not understand how deterrence works.

But does Trump?

 

[ThatStupidLion]

man.

3rd world dictator with confirmed WMD - slap on the wrist by world.

3rd world dictator with "unconfirmed" WMD located in the middle east - war, destabilization, and hunt/death of dictator

wtf.

 

[Dopus]

If the US managed to go to justify war in Iraq by using their apparent ownership of WMD's, which turned out not to be true. How can we accept NK actually having them, with concrete evidence.

Because of the huge loss of life that this would involve and the desolation of cities like Seoul.

North Korea does not want war.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

I think this a lot.



It doesn't matter what Kim wants. What matters is how Trump reacts. And there is literally no one in the world I trust less with as delicate and volatile a situation as this.

He is itching for an excuse to use the full military might of the US.

Yes, 15 years ago people were roped into going to war with a country falsely accused of having Weapons of Mass Destruction. That was by a "moderate Republican" who had some grasp of politics. Trump and his core administration is crazy and has already proven countless times to making rash, immoral, irrational and illegal decisions. I could see some of them wanting to go to war with NK for a variety of reasons. With that said, I don't think we will go to war as Trump's generals and Xi will keep him in check. I don't think we should be panicking by any means yet. I'm certain most Republicans in Congress are also uninterested in war with NK. However, I hope these foreign leaders Trump says he's talking to isn't someone like Putin. He would most certainly stir the pot and probably encourage Trump to go after NK.

 

[LifEndz]

MSNBC talking about it now. Do we know for sure they can build a missle that can hit the USA? (Obviously this is bad regardless based on what it means for Japan and South Korea).

 

[theignoramus]

NK biggest threat is proliferating their technology to rogue states and terrorists. Since they're under crippling sanctions right now, you better believe they'll do that for black market money.

 

[Apharmd]

Yeah I don't believe this at all. It's all very convenient, given that only a few weeks ago experts were saying it would be 'years' before they could produce one. The US wants to attack now and they're just now starting the spin cycle.

Wait I was just kidding. I was only trying to reference whataboutisms bro NOOO

 

[Luschient]

Good Lord, "NK miniaturizes a nuke" and everyone here is all "UGHGHGH TRUMPP!!!"

I can't stand him either but come on, this situation is all NK's doing. They are the ones with concentration camps, threatening to destroy the US all the time, lobbing missiles into Japan's waters.

I'd really like to hear SK and Japan's take on this situation as they are the most directly in harm's way of all of this.

 

[Netherscourge]

Nobody will believe that until they launch one into the ocean or space and detonate it.

 

[Jackpot]

Well they didn't have a reliable delivery system, then. Being able to deliver those potentially represents a massive paradigm shift.

It's still not reliable. And the poster I quoted's red line for war was "having any kind of nukes", exposing his total lack of knowledge on the situation.

 

[Mael]

Under a normal US presidency we would be discussing this issue like adults and see what NK is trying to win and to accomodate a new nuclear power.
Under Trump, we're all probably looking at ways to move out of range of nuclear strikes at this point.

 

[Barzul]

North Korea apparently approached the US last year about formally ending the war. Then we should look at restarting them, with nuclear disarmament off the table.

Any conclusion should include absolute freedom of movement for NK's citizens (being able to leave and return back home with like passports). The reason the Kim family has been able to maintain such a hold is that so many of those citizens are very misinformed on global geopolitics.

I remember the stories I heard of NK soccer players at the 2010 World Cup, they had absolutely no idea that the outside world was what they were seeing. Stuff like smartphones were alien to them.

 

[reckless]

Good lesson for all countries out there especially dictators . Build nukes and you'll be safe, give them up or go the diplomatic route and you'll end up like Libya, Iraq, Ukraine etc...

That idea is a lot more dangerous and a lot more relevant then the idea that NK is just going to randomly launch nukes at people.

 

[LQX]

How is North Korea so advanced given they are so isolated and have sanctions up the ass. Much of it has to do with China right?

 

[Epsilon-delta]

What a shit show.

Anyways, I have confidence the Joint Chiefs of Staff would steer Trump away from conflict.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

Let us hope for a long ass Cold War then

 

[Netherscourge]

Based on Trump's pattern of thinking, he will ask congress to revamp the US Nuclear Weapon programs.

He said it himself during his campaign - "let there be an arms race."

 

[Xando]

What a shit show.

Anyways, I have confidence the Joint Chiefs of Staff would steer Trump away from conflict.

You mean like the generals in the first korean war that wanted to nuke china

 

[Purkake4]

But does Trump?

He has military advisers, the Joint Chiefs and like two generals in his staff, so they'll probably explain if necessary.

You mean like the generals in the first korean war that wanted to nuke china

The nuclear paradigm has changed a bit in the past ~70 years.

 

[mreddie]

Let us hope for a long ass Cold War then

It's 1981 again.

 

[RM8]

Not necessarily soon, but shit will get ugly eventually. At some point NK might go crazy and do something truly horrible, or at some point America will try stop NK for good.

And I hope I'm not in Asia anymore by then :x

 

[DeathbyCheerios]

My worry is basically just for South Korea.

I am sure the USA has all kinds of missile defenses between here and North Korea, especially since they are up to no good. I do not think the USA is any imminent danger. I do fear for South Korea though. At any moment North Korea can just fire shells into Seoul and kill millions. Trump has to be careful or he could trigger the deaths of millions in Asia.