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White House readies order on withdrawing from NAFTA
- Thread starter studyguy
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Wet Bloodfart
Banned
Good luck, Trump.
balladofwindfishes
Member
I don't think the president has the power to formally leave a trade agreement with a simple EO.
Imperfected
Member
He will need an enemy to convince him of NAFTA's worth, unfortunately, as he does not listen to friends.
On the plus side, it would apparently only take about five minutes of Assad's time to get him to swing 100% in favor of NAFTA.
benicillin
Banned
That's a surefire way to piss of border states and companies that do a ton of importing, i.e. a lot of the same people that voted for Trump in the first place.
There would still be provisions in Nafta not covered in ten FTA. Same with TPP being an updated version of Nafta. Economic disruption will still be felt.
does the FTA cover bidding for government contracts? How about the service sector. Can our banks do business in the US?
No way he goes through with this. America's economy would be fucked 5 ways to Sunday. The last 20 years of our economics and trade with Mexico and Canada have been based off NAFTA, there's no way this won't have horrible implications.
Texas in particular is so fucked if NAFTA ends. And republicans really need Texas. Even my state of NM, probably the least important of the "border states" is going to be hit hard though.
Texas in particular is so fucked if NAFTA ends. And republicans really need Texas. Even my state of NM, probably the least important of the "border states" is going to be hit hard though.
Wet Bloodfart
Banned
So, judicial branch blocking him yet again. Good.
jack_package_200
Banned
I hope the anti trade nutjobs on the left and right are happy about this.
I think congress has the authority here.
Until they go to the Supreme Court where they now have the numbers.
Mexico wont dissapear if you take away Nafta though, like many people have said the US and China dont have a trade agreement.
He does have the power.
Wet Bloodfart
Banned
balladofwindfishes
Member
They don't have a SC majority.
Really? This doesn't fall under a treaty?
Pandora012
Member
Umm can he do that with and EO?
He can, he only needs to give Mexico amd Canada 180 days of notice.
They've had the numbers for awhile. But I can't see any of the Supreme Court letting this slide. I feel like everyone from RBG to Gorush is going to strike it down. Seriously, it may be a 9-0 decision.
As usual, The Onion is amazing:
http://www.theonion.com/article/us-protests-mexi-canadian-overpass-104
This was written in 2002.
This is an instance that the executive branch actually can pull us out of NAFTA unilaterally. Technically all he has to do is provide a 6mo notice. It probably opens the administration to a slew of litigation as no one has ever tried it, but he can do it.
EDIT: nvm, it is down a little.
Why more than comment makes it sounds like SCOTUS plays politics and doesn't enforce the law? Seen this sentiment in few different threads.
Trump: "Well, i'm out, Peace!"
Trudeau: "You can't just leave, you need to wait six months according to Article 2205 before withdr-
Trump: "Tremendous, now I can work on getting Mexico to pay for the wall. Super deal!"
Does Trump know about this other agreement? I'm guessing no, based on .... well, many things.
BannedEpisode
Member
I'm a former free trade analyst for a large industrial manufacturing company. This is only going to hurt the US jobs left over. So so dumb.
NAFTA allows Mexico and Canada to purchase the goods we still actually make. Here's an idea, "let's make it more expensive for our neighbors to buy our shit". Dumb.
NAFTA allows Mexico and Canada to purchase the goods we still actually make. Here's an idea, "let's make it more expensive for our neighbors to buy our shit". Dumb.
darkstar0155
Member
The SC while def conservative, don't vote party line at the drop of a hat. This is also the same SC that upheld the ACA provisions, and LGBTQ rights.
Seriously this assumption is idiotic. Practically every country in the world best trade partner is their neighbor. If not their best they take up #2 and #3 while China and US take the top slot.
He needs a Senate to consent to a treaty, but not to leave it. It is similar to firing Cabinet members.
George W. Bush withdrew from the ABM Treaty without any Congressional consent.
Jimmy Carter withdrew from a treaty with Taiwan without Congressional consent.
The Trump presidency in a nutshell. Eventually, he's going to actually deliver on one of his batshit crazy campaign promises and we're going to have to deal with the consequences.
And business groups supported him because they didn't think he'd actually go through with it. All I can do is shake my head.
No, but I would assume he has some authority to alter it to the point of complete uselessness?
The Trump presidency in a nutshell. Eventually, he's going to actually deliver on one of his batshit crazy campaign promises and we're going to have to deal with the consequences.
Good. Let the stupid fucking people of this country learn that they made a mistake the hard way... It seems to be the only way they'll realize.
Imperfected
Member
Trump Negotiations Step One: Give away all leverage.
Trump Negotiations Step Two: Beg them to return your leverage.
Trump Negotiations Step Three: Pretend like you always wanted whatever they're willing to offer you as a pittance to save face, if anything.
Trump Negotiations Step Two: Beg them to return your leverage.
Trump Negotiations Step Three: Pretend like you always wanted whatever they're willing to offer you as a pittance to save face, if anything.
2Smashed4U
Banned
Who is the "most" of the US that it helped?
If it helped big corporations save money in international trade at the expense of the middle/lower class, I'm of the opinion we should've never done NAFTA. But I'm not educated enough about it to have a strong opinion either way.
darkstar0155
Member
I agree. The SCOTUS isn't completely outside politics, but to act like they are as "vote party line" as congress is a gross misrepresentation of the judicial body.
RPGCrazied
Member
These fuckers are going to start a major war and put us in a recession. Trump voters have to be the dumbest people I've ever seen in my entire life.
Look at the Obamacare vote to see this in action.
Justices don't always vote along party lines.
titiklabingapat
Member
I'm saving all my money to get ready to swoop in to buy real estate. The recession is all but guaranteed St this point.
Mortimer Brewster
Member
It's been awhile since I looked at the old FTA but I believe it does cover both of those provisions. It would certainly need some updates and there would be some headaches and disruptions but overall because that deal will shield us from the more devastating effects of this. Mexico has no such protection.
Ah ok, based on what a commotion everyone made about Gorsuch, it seemed like it was a major win for the right, presumably, to get their way.
Pandora012
Member
$10 per Avocado.
But really this will fuck over many states that do business with Mexico and somewhat so with Canada.
You'd probably see price rises for stuff imported from Mexico and Canada
2Smashed4U
Banned
No. Hell it doesn't even remake the court that heavily anyway, it just goes back to the same balance it had before Scalia died anyway.
The craziest thing about this is he has referred to upstate NY over and over to blast Nafta, but like a fifth of all business up there only exists because of Nafta.
If people thought there wasn't much in the way of jobs before, imagine how much it's going to suck when all companies based in Canada leave.
If people thought there wasn't much in the way of jobs before, imagine how much it's going to suck when all companies based in Canada leave.
Perfect Blue
Banned
Navarro and Bannon hahahaha another L coming. Navarro is as fringe as fringe can be.
BannedEpisode
Member
NAFTA works by eliminating trade barriers by removing duty for the importer of goods produced in a country within the agreement.
Essentially the us goods that are still manufactured in the United States become attractive purchases for Canadians and Mexicans because US companies are able to compete with businesses in those countries by allowing those countries to not pay duties when importing your goods.
By removing NAFTA Canada and Mexico will be much less likely to purchase American goods. Or if they do it will be in smaller amounts or at highly adjusted costs. This will negatively affect the Americans working in manufacturing and shipping.
It goes both ways but I only see this as a potentially bad thing, especially if there is not a rework or replacement.
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