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[avaya]

Don't get me wrong I don't want us to withdraw from NAFTA. It's a net positive for us and it keeps stability in Mexico.

As far as your quote goes I'm
Not sure I follow.

My "back of the napkin" math:

A tax cut to 15% would put an extra 1.2 trillion in the economy each year.

NAFTA adds about 120 billion each year.


Deficit is another story. Any tax cut will have a proportional impact on revenue/deficit unless there is a corresponding spending cut.

Assuming you mean USD1.2trillion will be new money going into the economy....I can tell you today it categorically will not do so.

It will funnelled into other financial transactions. It will not go into more investment into the US in any large scale. It will be paid out as dividends or used for as share buy-backs and eventually a lot of is likely to be encumbered in financial products of dubious value and form the basis for zero-sum side-bets. The money is effectively lost from the system.

What I've said also assumes that this is actually new money into the system. The government has the 1.2trillion already. The government already spends this money, the vast majority of it in the US. It is already IN the economy, being used to either pay people or for investment. It is already in circulation. Functioning. Working.

This policy is incredibly dangerous. There is no virtuous circle of investment and growth this will promote. All it will do further down the line is cripple the government budget so crises can be manufactured around social benefit programmes that are state and government run.

It is an incredibly stupid thing to do.

 

[fantomena]

Im gonna do what Trump will never do, backtrack on my earlier statement. I have too little knowledge on NAFTA to see if it's bad or good.

So yeah, I stand corrected about my comment on NAFTA.

Aren't you a berniebro

I don't really know what berniebro means, so I can't say if I am one.

I disliked TPP long before I knew about Bernie. His stance against the TPP just made me support him more.

 

[Toxi]

Or turn my state blue, even better. I'm tired of Republicans running the show here. We need change.

Would really suck if the change had to come from economic destruction though.

 

[wildfire]

So he just want economy crash like if it were a reset button and start a new era.

This is some Mad Max shit...

Are there any Dystopian options we can choose? How about getting plugged into the Matrix?

 

[Reagan's BR]

Your math is off, corporate taxes are about 11% of government tax revenue. Government taxes are about $3.2 trillion per year.

Pretty sure you just made those numbers up because they are about 10x the actual impact.

Actual impact might be even worse as more individuals will likely try to restructure their earnings under business rules to take advantage of the lower rates. This is likely possible for the very rich.

Yes-that 1.2 may include the individual tax cuts as well. I saw it quoted as the impact in the paper this morning.

Believe the # was 12 over next ten years just broke it up to 1.2 per year because it was easy.

Assuming you mean USD1.2trillion will be new money going into the economy....I can tell you today it categorically will not do so.

Fair points, yes as I mentioned I'm looking at it w/o consideration for need for increased revenue for current gov spending, which will be a major problem if not cut back.

Main point is market dip from a NAFTA withdraw will be offset by surge from 15% corp tax. Still, better to not withdraw at all!

 

[LakeEarth]

Are there any Dystopian options we can choose? How about getting plugged into the Matrix?

Mmmm, the 90s...

 

[studyguy]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/857334671398588416
@nytimes
Breaking News: Trump is likely to sign an order setting in motion a U.S. withdrawal from the Nafta trade accord

.

 

[Brinbe]

Fucking motherfucker...

 

[RPGCrazied]

.

Red states better fight this. They won't, but it will effect them the most.

 

[Flying Toaster]

Actually going through with it. I am curious how the midterms are going to be for border states.

 

[Lights and Waves]

How to turn red states into blue states in one easy step

I doubt Trumpkins even know what NAFTA is...

 

[djkimothy]

.

"Just a few tweaks!"

 

[Buba Big Guns]

lol what a disaster

 

[RPGCrazied]

Doesn't this have to go through congress? No way it makes it out.

 

[djkimothy]

Doesn't this have to go through congress? No way it makes it out.

Do not underestimate the stupidity of Congress. Look at their revised Health care bill.

 

[FyreWulff]

Red states better fight this. They won't, but it will effect them the most.

Yep. Pulling out of NAFTA will absolutely fuck the agriculture heavy red states.

 

[EatinOlives]

Do not underestimate the stupidity of Congress. Look at their revised Health care bill.

I'm not sure that revised Healthcare bill has the proper amount to make it past Congress either.

 

[Flying Toaster]

Do not underestimate the stupidity of Congress. Look at their revised Health care bill.

Trump sacrificed the moderate republicans to get the FC on deck. So the vote shift changed groups is all.

 

[djkimothy]

I'm not sure that revised Healthcare bill has the proper amount to make it past Congress either.

Me neither but, I'll believe when it fails. Until then, the possibility still exists. You guys better call and email your reps!

 

[KingV]

Yes-that 1.2 may include the individual tax cuts as well. I saw it quoted as the impact in the paper this morning.

Believe the # was 12 over next ten years just broke it up to 1.2 per year because it was easy.

Fair points, yes as I mentioned I'm looking at it w/o consideration for need for increased revenue for current gov spending, which will be a major problem if not cut back.

Main point is market dip from a NAFTA withdraw will be offset by surge from 15% corp tax. Still, better to not withdraw at all!

Fair enough. I see how you got the 1.2 trillion now

FYI, if you cut government spending to match the tax cuts the stimulative effect is largely lost (at least in Terms of GDP), it may even be negative because of the reasons the poster above states.

You add $1.2 trillion in the economy, and cut $1.2 trillion of government spending is, at the very best a wash, buts it's actually probably worse because government typically doesn't hoard money and save it for the future.

 

[KingV]

Yep. Pulling out of NAFTA will absolutely fuck the agriculture heavy red states.

I know you are also in NE. Mexico is a top 5 customer for like all of our major exports (apart from Larry the Cable Guy).

 

[Dice//]

Im gonna do what Trump will never do, backtrack on my earlier statement. I have too little knowledge on NAFTA to see if it's bad or good.

So yeah, I stand corrected about my comment on NAFTA.

i respect this and give you credit instead of fighting tooth and nail for something you don't know as much about.
(to be honest I def don't know enough about it either to really weight much more....thanks GAF for often providing relevant links to things)

 

[Lightning_Roller]

Dumb as a box of rocks TRUMP is. He gonna ruin us all. Damn moron. Him and his administration.

 

[Log4Girlz]

Step 1: Withdraw from NAFTA
Step 2: Blame objectively worse economy on repercussions of having NAFTA in the first place.
Step 3: Renegotiate TFTA, Trump Free Trade Agreement, with all the same basic elements of NAFTA
Step 4: Economy improves, all hail Trump for TFTA.

Between this and the Trump Improved Tax Scheme, his base will worship him. New Reagan.

 

[CazTGG]

Should've named it the Bigly U.S., Canada & Mexico Agreement of the Tremendous 90s. Maybe then he would have second thoughts.

 

[FyreWulff]

I know you are also in NE. Mexico is a top 5 customer for like all of our major exports (apart from Larry the Cable Guy).

it's actually specifically Nebraska and Iowa that get fucked the most. sigh.

 

[RPGCrazied]

Bradd Jaffy‏Verified account
@BraddJaffy

Trump ‘absolutely' looking at breaking up 9th Circuit Court of Appeals (which blocked his ban), he tells @dcexaminer

Lmao, like he can do this. This man is so pitiful its almost comical.

 

[studyguy]

On Trump Unilaterally Withdrawing from NAFTA

“As for withdrawal, Trump can’t go it alone without congress,” states Johnson. “However, unless Congress actively resists a presidential attempt to unilaterally withdraw from NAFTA, the US courts will not intervene, underscoring the importance to Canada of working closely with Congress,” he adds.

Further, the president has the power to frustrate NAFTA by taking various executive actions. While the sole power to impose duties under the US Constitution rests with Congress, it has delegated powers to the president to act unilaterally to address national emergencies, and balance of payments and national security situations. These powers include the ability to raise tariffs and to adopt other border measures, not withstanding NAFTA. The exercise of such powers could be very costly to the US economy and would doubtless provoke retaliation from US trading partners and litigation both in the US court system and before international bodies such as the WTO.

I'd urge anyone interested to read through the full report, it's easily the best one regarding the question posed to IF he can do it unilaterally I've found.

 

[Mortimer Brewster]

More I think about it more this sounds like that Bannons been pulling his Rasputin schtick when everyone sane is busy. Ivanka and Jared are out of the country, Tillerson is probably spending all his time on that shitheel in North Korea, so Bannon is trying to squeeze a fast one in. My guess this will be another one of those situations where once saner heads prevail, Trump will decide against it.

 

[TaterTots]

Does any EO ever pass he signs? What happened to the TPP thing? Its like the only thing some people liked and I haven't heard anything since.

 

[gutter_trash]

fantomena

NAFTA has been benficial to Canada; it's a fact

 

[DrSlek]

The Peso is apparently dropping like a brick now.

Which will make it more attractive for US companies to set up shop in Mexico.

Who knew international trade would be so complicated!?

 

[Escape Goat]

Does any EO ever pass he signs? What happened to the TPP thing? Its like the only thing some people liked and I haven't heard anything since.

Most of his EOs don't actually do anything. They might direct an agency to review something but Congress controls most of tge levers.

 

[hawk2025]

I'm still constantly amazed that he somehow managed to pick quite literally the shittiest academic economist in existence, and then paired him with a white supremacist.

It takes a special kind of talent to dig THAT low.

 

[Steel]

This is so fucking dumb.

 

[Kifimbo]

Between this and the Trump Improved Tax Scheme, his base will worship him. New Reagan.

Reagan was entirely pro-NAFTA and kickstarted the campaign.

 

[Pastry]

The funny thing about renegotiating NAFTA is that Canada and Mexico probably have a stronger position now than they did when it was originally created.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

Reagan was entirely pro-NAFTA and kickstarted the campaign.

Reagan is a cuck.

 

[Buckle]

So he just want economy crash like if it were a reset button and start a new era.

This is some Mad Max shit...

I vote Robocop.

 

[Mortimer Brewster]

We need to send Brian Mulroney to Mar A Lago to sing When Irish Eyes Are Smiling with Trump. Then he can convince him that the Free Trade deal is good.

 

[Barajas_201]

This is good for Mexico IMO. Thanks to NAFTA we lost our agriculture self-sufficiency because our farmers couldn't compete against US subsidies, on top of being almost completely dependent on a racist country for our energy for example.

It is time for Mexico to look back at our southern brothers and finally forget about our elites obsession of being accepted as part of "North America" by the racist Canadians and Americans that don't even care at all about us. And with next year's election we might finally, since Cardenas presidency, get a president for the people and by the people and a progressive as well that actually cares about Mexico on top of not subordinating it to Washington. Things are looking hopeful again for the average Mexcian.

I would not be against the idea of a new NAFTA if the leader of the US were Bernie or someone fair and not racist. In fact a Trudeau-Bernie-AMLO leftist triforce would be absolutely magnificent but sadly I'm not to optimistic on Americans and their racist nature, we could get another 4 years of Trump in which case I hope Mexico just bails out and fully integrate again into Latin America, even a EU-like thing would be a dream come true.

 

[Fercho]

This is good for Mexico IMO. Thanks to NAFTA we lost our agriculture self-sufficiency because our farmers couldn't compete against US subsidies, on top of being almost completely dependent on a racist country for our energy for example.

It is time for Mexico to look back at our southern brothers and finally forget about our elites obsession of being accepted as part of "North America" by the racist Canadians and Americans that don't even care at all about us. And with next year's election we might finally, since Cardenas presidency, get a president for the people and by the people and a progressive as well that actually cares about Mexico on top of not subordinating it to Washington. Things are looking hopeful again for the average Mexcian.

I would not be against the idea of a new NAFTA if the leader of the US were Bernie or someone fair and not racist. In fact a Trudeau-Bernie-AMLO leftist triforce would be absolutely magnificent but sadly I'm not to optimistic on Americans and their racist nature, we could get another 4 years of Trump in which case I hope Mexico just bails out and fully integrate again into Latin America, even a EU-like thing would be a dream come true.

Not going to happen bro, like ever. To many American economic and bourgeois interests in the country (Trump supporters or not) to allow a true nationalist to rise to power. That's why we always have corrupts thieves running the show. filling their pockets while they sell/give away the country.

 

[Pop-O-Matic]

I vote Robocop.

Robocop is suppose to be a dystopia? I thought it was one of those "things haven't changed a bit" kind of futures...

 

[TarNaru33]

I mean, I know Trump supporters are morons, but I really don't think this strategy would work at all. If things get suddenly worse there's no spin you can do to get the general public to not blame those in power.

Worked for Obamacare even when Obamacare made things less worse than it would have been...

 

[KingV]

I'm still constantly amazed that he somehow managed to pick quite literally the shittiest academic economist in existence, and then paired him with a white supremacist.

It takes a special kind of talent to dig THAT low.

Don't worry. Someone who is sort of well-respected like mankiw will be carrying water on this tax plan this weekend. Mark my words.

Mankiw, Sunday, NY Times claiming this will lower the deficit.

 

[Tovarisc]

 

[RDreamer]

Worked for Obamacare even when Obamacare made things less worse than it would have been...

I think you misunderstood me... or I'm misunderstanding you. Obamacare isn't the same situation. This poster is saying that the party in control of everything could purposefully make things much much worse in hopes that they could put in legislation to make it less worse than that and still retain power. The problem is that the much much worse comes first and likely wouldn't be "less worse" before elections.

Basically people would have to believe that NAFTA, the fucking trade policy in place for decades suddenly made things worse right now and that Trump will fix that. I just don't think people are that dumb in that way. People blame the ruling party for their immediate pocketbook problems. If gas suddenly went way way way up, they'd be pissed at republicans, for instance. If republicans then made is slightly less worse than way way way up they still don't win that argument. Same goes for other goods.

 

[Fenderputty]

The stock market seems to be Trump proof. They haven't shifted on any crap Trump has pulled so far.

Stocks flatlining seems to run counterintuitive to your claim. The initial climb after his election was because it was assumed he would get some shit done. His tax breaks and infrastructure ideas would be fiscally expansive. The fact that they are not reacting to his tax proposal shows they lack confidence he can get it done

 

[water_wendi]

Well this should be interesting.

 

[mackaveli]

Trump has said he will not terminate NAFTA at this moment during phone call with Canada and Mexican leaders. Per CNBC. Is breaking.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/26/trum...ith-mexican-canadian-leaders-white-house.html