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[Incognito]

http://web.archive.org/web/20001110051000/www.realclearpolitics.com/Polls/polls-EC_ALWAYS.html

November 6, 2000
Final RCP Electoral College Analysis: Bush 446 Gore 92
Bush 51.2 Gore 41.9 Nader 5.8

The real debate is not who is going to win the election, but whether Bush will win 308 electoral votes or 474 electoral votes. The media's fantasy of Bush winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college is not going happen. The worst case scenario for a Bush victory will be a 2-3 point win in the popular vote and 10-20% more than the necessary 270 EC votes.

We continue to see a landslide of over 400 electoral votes and a Bush win by 7-10 points. We will have to wait until tomorrow to see whether the "tightening polls" may have worked to save Illinois, California, Minnesota and a few others for the Vice President.

this realclearpolitics site, as some of you might already know, is damn near always cited as evidence that bush is going to slaughter kerry by the right-wing blogs.

:lol :lol

good job on 2000, buds. although bush was still selected.

 

[heavy liquid]

Polls are known to have been bullshit for a long time. It all depends on how you ask the question. That said, I think the polls for this election have the potential to be WAY off because of cell phones and the (likely) huge number of first time voters and voter turnout in general.

 

[Phoenix]

Polls are known to have been bullshit for a long time. It all depends on how you ask the question. That said, I think the polls for this election have the potential to be WAY off because of cell phones and the (likely) huge number of first time voters and voter turnout in general.

Cell phones wouldn't change the poll outcome because the vast majority of Americans DO have land lines. Since polling just randomly selects from a pool of possibile persons, the fact that cell phone users that don't have landlines won't get called is insignificant. The polls that matter are the polls of the electorate that new organizations such as CNN publish. Polling the general populace is mostly a waste of time because the error rate depends entirely on the person you reach. Many Americans who say they are going to vote won't or won't be able to. The electorate will be there rain or shine or nuclear bomb.