Wii U Speculation Thread The Third: Casting Dreams in The Castle of Miyamoto

DarkChild said:
So you give me iSuppli estimate of 126$ loss on every 360 sold in 2005, and when I post 2006 numbers where MS cuts costs and makes 75$ on it, its crap?
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No, it's all crap. That's why I didn't direct my iSuppli criticisms at anyone.
If the $323 cost of parts estimate was correct, MS would still be losing money on it, anyway.
Fact is, MS Entertainment & Devices lost $3.1 billion in the first two years of Xbox 360's life, and RROD costs are estimated at $1.1 billion. It's no secret that Microsoft use a loss leading model for Xbox, so it doesn't take a genius to figure out what happened there.
 
DarkChild said:
So you give me iSuppli estimate of 126$ loss on every 360 sold in 2005, and when I post 2006 numbers where MS cuts costs and makes 75$ on it, its crap?
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No, I said even with the $126 figure, it wasn't the whole picture, just like saying they made $75 per 360 in 2007 is disingenuous as well.
 
Krev said:
No, it's all crap. That's why I didn't direct my iSuppli criticisms at anyone.
If the $323 cost of parts estimate was correct, MS would still be losing money on it, anyway.
Fact is, MS Entertainment & Devices lost $3.1 billion in the first two years of Xbox 360's life, and RROD costs are estimated at $1.1 billion. It's no secret that Microsoft use a loss leading model for Xbox, so it doesn't take a genius to figure out what happened there.
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Costs of packaging, advertising and other things weren't included of course. If they wanted to make money on it day one they would have to go seriously under performance limit, which wasn't an option, neither will it be now.
 
guek said:
No, I said even with the $126 figure, it wasn't the whole picture, just like saying they made $75 per 360 in 2007 is disingenuous as well.
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Well, I wasn't talking about Xbox division, but 360 hardware manufacturing in general. It wasn't money sucking hole, especially for performance ratio. If they wanted to make money(like Nintendo did) and it was little money, they should have repackaged original Xbox and sell it as new system, like Nintendo did.
 
They could have gone for a smaller tech leap with a smaller loss.
The possibilities are endless, as Nintendo demonstrated with DS and Wii.
 
Krev said:
They could have gone for a smaller tech leap with a smaller loss.
The possibilities are endless, as Nintendo demonstrated with DS and Wii.
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Some companies just want to have massive leaps in terms of tech(MS, Sony, Samsung etc.) and they have their user base. Thats why MS will go balls to the wall for next gen too. I would be seriously pissed of if they sold me last gen hardware without on line at 250$ while I have company that sells 20 times better hardware at 50$ more.
 
ShockingAlberto said:
They asked publishers and developers what they need in a next-gen system

EA, Activision, DICE, and Epic all insisted on raising the ceiling by what we would traditionally consider a generational leap.

Microsoft listened because they were told this would increase game sales and hardware adoption.
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joelfacepalm.gif


lttp on this new, what absolute mind blowing stupidity (mainly stupidity on Microsoft's part for giving in, since the folks requesting are pure evil at this point and know what they're doing in that this will kill more small devs as said before). So another gen of MS and (hopefully not also) Sony bleeding money for graphics that can't get much better? I really hope this isn't true. Anyways, just found out I have the day off from work, whoo hoo! Time to get some breakfast and then catch up on some games.
 
Linkhero1 said:
How do you guys feel about the sliders on the Wii U Tablet? They look kind of annoying.
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I really like the 3DS slider. i've never been a fan of analog sticks, so i may be biased. But, Honestly, i think they're a whole lot better for extended play. You can hold forward for a long time and your thumb wont feel sore. As for analog, i have to adjust my thumb constantly to remain comfortable.
I'm interested to see how no clickable sliders will be handled.
 
DarkChild said:
Costs of packaging, advertising and other things weren't included of course. If they wanted to make money on it day one they would have to go seriously under performance limit, which wasn't an option, neither will it be now.
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And they put themselves in the same position of incurring large losses in the beginning like last time. And with the 3rd party exclusive being virtually dead it's not as easy to cover those losses today. I'm a firm believer in making hardware as close to breakeven as possible at launch. MS could make Xbox 3 a very big jump over 360 while not resembling anything close to it and still set themselves up for early profitability. You're over-exaggerating with the "if they sold me last gen hardware without on line". Wii was a totally unique situation. MS wouldn't just drop live.
 
jump_button said:
they look like same on the pro pad so if they anything like that should be good
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I don't have the pro pad, but if a lot of people are saying it's good then that's kind of relieving.

Berg said:
I really like the 3DS slider. i've never been a fan of analog sticks, so i may be biased. But, Honestly, i think they're a whole lot better for extended play. You can hold forward for a long time and your thumb wont feel sore. As for analog, i have to adjust my thumb constantly to remain comfortable.
I'm interested to see how no clickable sliders will be handled.
Click to expand...

Well I'm just worried because of Smash Bros for the Wii U. I'm not sure how they're going to handle the control scheme for it. You bring up an interesting point about the sliders not being clickable considering some games use the clickable analog stick in 360 games.


HylianTom said:
I actually like it, and I'm making a point to play more on my 3DS so that I'm more used to this element of control. No complaints thus far.
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Good to know people like the sliders. I'm only worried about the position of the second slider.
 
Berg said:
I really like the 3DS slider. i've never been a fan of analog sticks, so i may be biased. But, Honestly, i think they're a whole lot better for extended play. You can hold forward for a long time and your thumb wont feel sore. As for analog, i have to adjust my thumb constantly to remain comfortable.
I'm interested to see how no clickable sliders will be handled.
Click to expand...

3DS slider is awesome, very responsive and super comfortable so I won't mind much if the tablet's analog 'sticks' are similar.
 
Linkhero1 said:
How do you guys feel about the sliders on the Wii U Tablet? They look kind of annoying.
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I prefer analogues sticks as they are more sensitive and require less pressure to move. I think tilt is far better than slide....

... having said that the Wii U slide pads do look better than the 3DS one as they have a lip which should help stop your thumb sliding off.
 
Linkhero1 said:
I don't have the pro pad, but if a lot of people are saying it's good then that's kind of relieving.



Well I'm just worried because of Smash Bros for the Wii U. I'm not sure how they're going to handle the control scheme for it. You bring up an interesting point about the sliders not being clickable considering some games use the clickable analog stick in 360 games.




Good to know people like the sliders. I'm only worried about the position of the second slider.
Click to expand...


Well, considering the dash/dodge in Kid Icarus I think that sliders should be ok for Smash U.
ABout the clicking, probably they can swift those actions to the touch screen.
Upad has a lot of input/output elements.
 
SlickShoesRUCrazy said:
Graphics on consoles have A LOT of room to get better....
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Well obviously, we're still a long ways away from Pixar level quality or photo realism. The problem is MS, Sony and certain idiot mega-third parties endlessly trying to reach weak sub levels of either benchmark could potentially kill the industry as discussed many times before.
 
tkscz said:
*Speculates pricing*

WiiU = $299.99
NexBox = $499.99
PS4 = $499.99 or $599.99
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Wow--no way Sony and MS have another $500 system.

I also still think Nintendo tries to get away with a $349 system for the Wii U and I have a feeling we have yet another "Ambassador" situation on our hands here in the near future.
 
Aostia said:
Well, considering the dash/dodge in Kid Icarus I think that sliders should be ok for Smash U.
Click to expand...

I haven't had a chance to play Kid Icarus, but I will when I get a chance.

ABout the clicking, probably they can swift those actions to the touch screen.
Upad has a lot of input/output elements.
Click to expand...

I was kind of worried about that. I'm one who prefers the GC controller for Smash Bros, so I'm not really sure what to expect from the Wii U version.
 
I'll start making pricing predictions when we get a better idea of the hardware capabilities.

But assuming it's a notch above the 360, I'm guessing it will $349 with pack-in game, maybe pre-installed.
 
I hope the WiiU launches with a new Nintendogs. My kid loves that series and it would give me the perfect excuse to pick one up at Christmas

Have there been any rumors of one? I wonder if Nintendo considers it a handheld franchise.

Time for rabbits! Cute cuddly rabbits. Crap now I want it too
 
Linkhero1 said:
I haven't had a chance to play Kid Icarus, but I will when I get a chance.



I was kind of worried about that. I'm one who prefers the GC controller for Smash Bros, so I'm not really sure what to expect from the Wii U version.
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yeah, but about the touch I was speaking about other "360" titles that have the "click" on the analogue sticks. Not specifically about smash.
I think that for smash the sliders + face button + shoulder buttons should be enough.
But I also hope for some touch interactions (not mandatory, leaving the player freedom of choice)
 
stilgar said:
Especially if they don't launch it with a new storage format ala DVD or Bluray which added a lot of value.
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Indeed, that's a major factor, and we've mulled it over in this and other threads many times. I can see $400 and maybe $450 if it includes a sophisticated interface such as Kinect or touch screen. My guess is they'll take a loss at first, as usual, but recoup those costs with mandatory Playstation Plus for online gaming and a shit-ton of DLC for its own published software.
 
DarkChild said:
They lost money on 360 only because RROD, 360 was almost profitable from day one, yet it was technical marvel. They designed very very efficient and powerful console, but RROD fucked it all up.
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In the first six years of the Xbox 360's life, Microsoft's game and devices division posted an overall loss of $30m (google docs | opendocuments ). This does not count the massive initial R&D outlay for the 360, and while the division does count other devices, I believe that the Xbox 360 was by far the largest part of that division. Still, "almost profitable" is a bit iffy, considering that the first two years of the console saw a nearly three billion dollar loss (nearly two billion dollar loss if you don't count the RRoD one-time payout).

Edit: If you value the RRoD cost by that single giant payout, it took five years before the division became profitable during the Xbox 360's lifespan, not counting its R&D.


the same guy said:
MS has very good set up for next gen. Live and Kinect. I don't give a shit about Kinect, but many people do and new Kinect would surely spark alot of interest. Also, it would bring them alot of profit. As for Live, Live is the best on line service you can get in console and it brings them very nice revenue. I can't even think how will hardcore gamers go to Nintendo system to play COD or BF and not wait for new MS machine with best online infrastructure.
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I agree with some of the above. Live and Kinect are strong brands that give Microsoft a leg up in both mindshare and side revenue. Still, my admittedly anecdotal observations of people I know who own video game systems suggests that most gamers still don't really care that much about which service is being used. They in particular flocked to the 360 because (A) all the games that were heavily advertised every month were actually made for it, which made the Wii unacceptable to them; and (B) it was the cheaper option otherwise, which tossed the PS3 right out. I don't know a single person in real life who plays video games and has to keep their Live account.
 
Fourth Storm said:
I'm sorry but after the disaster that was the PS3 launch, what makes you think Sony would repeat the mistake? I know this is a Nintendo thread, but sheesh...
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They did just repeat the same basic mistake with the PSV, didn't they?

Still, I agree that Sony will look long and hard and not make the stupider* decision.



* "Stupider? Pah! This thread's as lousy as it is brilliant!"
 
Plinko said:
Wow--no way Sony and MS have another $500 system.

I also still think Nintendo tries to get away with a $349 system for the Wii U and I have a feeling we have yet another "Ambassador" situation on our hands here in the near future.
Click to expand...

Nintendo's apparently going for the "external hard drive" option, which means that (edit: I hope) the real nerds will be able to use their own drives, but the mass market consumers will have to buy one on the side. Nintendo might leverage that to set a more reasonable price for their system (like, ugh*, ~$299), because they can make up some of the losses with unreasonable profits from the "U-drive".


HamPster PamPster said:
I hope the WiiU launches with a new Nintendogs. My kid loves that series and it would give me the perfect excuse to pick one up at Christmas

Have there been any rumors of one? I wonder if Nintendo considers it a handheld franchise.

Time for rabbits! Cute cuddly rabbits. Crap now I want it too
Click to expand...

Hey, Iwata, I know you're reading this. You know, electrostatic feedback on that touch screen means that players can actually feel the fur when they pet their Npets. Just sayin....

Yes, I know this is a lost cause and isn't happening, but I am now latched onto the idea of this sort of haptics being awesome



* I still see $200 as the reasonable entry price for a system that has no software bundled. It's because I'm entering fogie territory.
 
Plinko said:
Wow--no way Sony and MS have another $500 system.

I also still think Nintendo tries to get away with a $349 system for the Wii U and I have a feeling we have yet another "Ambassador" situation on our hands here in the near future.
Click to expand...

The more I think about it, the more it makes sense.

Unlike the 3DS, Wii U is probably going to launch in November. With a 2D Mario game. It is going to sell out through the holidays regardless of the price. Maybe when things start cooling down sometime in 2013, they pull an Ambassador on us and drop the price to $299. I think it could work.
 
DarkChild said:
Well, I wasn't talking about Xbox division, but 360 hardware manufacturing in general. It wasn't money sucking hole, especially for performance ratio. If they wanted to make money(like Nintendo did) and it was little money, they should have repackaged original Xbox and sell it as new system, like Nintendo did.
Click to expand...
Rule of thumb: console BOMs are primarily affected by redesigns (simply because the bulk of consoles BOMs are not amounted to by off-the-shelf parts), unless said consoles launched with major ICs at ultra-fresh lithography nodes. Now, how many redesigns did 360 get during its first year? - Not many. That iSupply's '$525 BOM at launch, $323 a year later' is la-la land material, given 360 got its first redesign in Q3/2007.
 
Anth0ny said:
The more I think about it, the more it makes sense.

Unlike the 3DS, Wii U is probably going to launch in November. With a 2D Mario game. It is going to sell out through the holidays regardless of the price. Maybe when things start cooling down sometime in 2013, they pull an Ambassador on us and drop the price to $299. I think it could work.
Click to expand...

With Iwata telling investors to expect a new 2D Mario on 3DS this year, I'd be shocked if NSMB Mii launched with Wii U.
 
guek said:
First of all, that's not what you originally stated. Second of all, MS was still probably losing a considerable amount of money overall per 360 sold. The wii cost a measly $88 to manufacture and nintendo made a whopping $6 of pure operating profit after all other extraneous costs.
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Do we really know how manufacturer's arrive at these figures though? For example, are they lumping all the initial manufacturing set up costs into the first year? Is that not a front loaded investment that could be divided over the consoles entire lifespan? Does this represent the entire year's R&D lumped only into only the Wii? Did they estimate out the Wii's R&D (over however many years they worked on it) and lump that into the first year? What about the front loaded marketing campaign (clearly an investment across console's entire lifespan)? Is all that also rolled into only the first year, the first 2 fiscal quarters? You see where I'm going with this, a console/portable is an 8+ year investment, and it's incredibly front loaded. Assuming they do this kind of selective accounting, is it really fair to say "Look they only made $6"?
 
Anth0ny said:
Unlike the 3DS, Wii U is probably going to launch in November. With a 2D Mario game.
Click to expand...
They absolutely must have a Mario action game ready to go this time or the launch is going to be in near-3DS launch danger territory. IMHO it's incredibly wishful thinking that we'd get Metroid or (especially) Zelda but NSMB Mii should be doable, hopefully whatever team who made that E3 demo is being worked night and day. There hasn't been a Nintendo launch without a new Super Mario title since N64 and it's a cycle that has to be broken this time, even if it means delaying Pikmin 3. Not having Mario at launch could be just as dangerous as making the system too weak.
 
so class, what did u get from everyones comments in this page?

"that Nintendo is wrong for pricing a console with cheap materials high, and Sony and MS are justified for pricing their consoles higher regardless."

very good class, that'll end today's lesson in Sarcasm for beginners...
 
GameplayWhore said:
They could get away with it if they tied the two games together somehow, no?
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That's a possibility, yes, but I'm having a hard time envisioning how it would work. The next Smash Bros seems to be broken up into two completely different games, with the 3DS version focusing on character building. How would they make each version of a NSMB game unique? Those games are all about the levels...
 
AceBandage said:
There is no way they will launch two Mario games this year. No way in hell.
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What if it's an experiment in multiplatform simultaneous releases? Maybe they've seen the CoD sales and said "We can up the ante so hard on those guys". Then we get NSMBM on both platforms -- one of them has 3D effects, the other sports higher quality graphics, each edition has additional unique perks which will try to compel the consumer to buy both versions, and you can multiplay between home console and portable.

This is not a normal Nintendo thing, but it's a way to make making a simultaneous release of action Marios on both systems a workable idea.


edit: shareable level editor on both systems, damnit! >:O
 
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